The Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers pulled off a modern blockbuster, one in which some bad contracts changed hands along with useful major leaguers and prospects. The Reds got a little bit better, but perhaps not as much as they need to, and those plucky Dodgers added some prospects to help them rebuild, while perhaps clearing salary space for an even bigger acquisition.
The Reds have been signaling for weeks they would trade from their substantial prospect depth, largely accumulated through the draft, to upgrade their major league roster and try to contend in 2019-20. This trade gives the superficial appearance of doing so, and yet might not actually put them that much closer to a playoff berth.
Matt Kemp's dead-cat-bounce season in 2018 still wasn't even that valuable, since he's a DH costing his employers runs by playing left field, and at 34 he's only going to be worse going forward. Cincinnati would be far better served playing second-year outfielder Jesse Winker, a high on-base hitter when healthy, every day in left, using Kemp just to spell Winker against some lefties. They also added Kyle Farmer, a backup catcher who can fill in at third but can't hit.
So looking past that pair, the Reds really acquired two players likely to help them win more games in 2019, and both come with major question marks about how we might project their production. Yasiel Puig has been more famous than productive the past four years. After tearing through the National League in his first two seasons, he has settled in as an average-ish regular since then, generally a low-OBP, hard-contact guy with some power. Pitchers figured out they could exploit him with velocity inside and he couldn't cover there and still get to soft stuff away -- and that he wouldn't adjust to it, at least not at first.
Puig was slightly better in that regard last year, but it is not enough to make him more than an average regular in right, and his occasionally spectacular defense never grades out as such in advanced defensive metrics. The Reds had no incumbent in right field of note, so Puig is probably a two-win upgrade who could, in some 90th percentile projection, become a four-win upgrade. He clearly has the physical ability to do so, just not the approach.
Lefty Alex Wood has always had a violent delivery, needing Tommy John surgery as an amateur and frequently missing time with the Atlanta Braves and then the Dodgers, which was exacerbated last year when the Dodgers tried to alter his delivery. His stuff also backed up; he posted his lowest average fastball velocity in three years. His changeup, long his best pitch, was also less effective.
Wood will turn 28 in a few weeks but already has the medical report of a pitcher who has had twice his career. The most recent indicators on Wood -- velocity, strikeout rate, swing and miss rate -- are all negative, and his delivery has always been disturbing. Again, there's a best-case scenario in which Wood is a 4.0 WAR pitcher, replacing someone in the Reds' rotation who might not have seen replacement level. It's just not that likely.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, shed some salary, taking back Homer Bailey's bad contract to move that money. They also take two prospects from the Reds. Neither is an elite prospect yet, though both project to real major league value. Jeter Downs, the 32nd overall pick in 2017, is a high-contact guy with very good feel to hit for his age along with plus speed. He might not have more than average power down the line but should hit for more than enough average to compensate, and already has shown signs of plate discipline. He's a shortstop now but is much more likely to end up at second base or even in center field, depending on how well he holds his speed as he gets older. He turned 20 this past July and should move right to high-A.
Right-hander Josiah Gray was the 72nd overall pick just this past June out of Division II Le Moyne in upstate New York, but a solid showing this summer had many teams asking the Reds to include him in trade offers this winter. Gray is a late convert to pitching, is highly athletic and works with an above-average fastball and a slider that's average but flashes plus. His changeup is behind, as you might expect from a conversion guy who hasn't faced great competition yet, but he showed very well in the Appy League. Teams love his athleticism and the upside of a guy with so little mileage on his arm who already looks as if he'll have two plus pitches. He has No. 3 starter ceiling with a high floor as an impact reliever.
The Dodgers aren't rebuilding, but this looks like a deal where they cleared out some salary, also added prospect value to keep or trade later, maybe cleared a spot in the outfield for top prospect Alex Verdugo, and added the budget flexibility to go do something huge -- such as maybe signing that Bryce Harper kid.