Cutch, Harper and Machado in Phillies lineup? Not so fast

The free-agent market has been a complete mud bog to this point, with many teams determined to wait for the sheer volume of available players to drive the prices downward -- inevitably -- and some agents still devoted to the idea of getting what they perceive to be fair value for their clients. In the midst of that standoff, the Phillies' signing of Andrew McCutchen was an oasis of money.

The former MVP got $50 million over three years, with a club option for a fourth year. Last winter, only two outfielder-DH types got deals of greater value -- Lorenzo Cain, who signed for $80 million with the Brewers, and J.D. Martinez, who worked out a $110 million contract to play for the Red Sox. For the other free agents -- for Michael Brantley, for A.J. Pollock -- the McCutchen deal seems like a well of hope.

But it might also be a case of a team spending heavily to make sure its winter doesn't evolve into a disappointment. As the winter began, the Phillies were poised to perhaps make more difference-making moves than any other club, because after years of slashing payroll, they have more financial flexibility than any of the superpower clubs, more room to spend, in what has been touted as one of the best classes of free agents in baseball history.

The Phillies went after Patrick Corbin, the best starting pitcher on the free-agent market, and they came up short, unwilling to add a sixth year to their offer. They have had conversations with the Miami Marlins about J.T. Realmuto, the best available catcher, but the perception of some executives is the Marlins are reluctant to move Realmuto within the division. The Phillies were able to execute what was widely viewed as an excellent trade for infielder Jean Segura, taking on a veteran who was among the MLB leaders in hits while shedding the salary of Carlos Santana.

But as the winter plays out, day by day, it's seen as increasingly possible by agents and executives that the Phillies will be unable to land either of the two best players in the market, Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, after five years of working to reshape their payroll angle to land a centerpiece position player.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are working to unload two outfielders from their roster, perhaps some combination of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, or Puig and Joc Pederson, as well as a starting pitcher like Alex Wood or Rich Hill. With their increased payroll flexibility, they could more readily make an offer to Harper -- the type of marketable star whom folks at the very top of the organization crave. Some talent evaluators who know Dodgers honcho Andrew Friedman don't believe he'll offer Harper the most years Harper might get in a deal, or even the most money. But they can envision Friedman creating a front-loaded deal that might attract Harper to play for a perennial contender close to his Las Vegas home.

Machado will make in-person visits with four teams in the days ahead, and the Phillies are expected to be among those clubs. The baseball-ops people who run the Phillies know Machado better than any of the bidders, because from Andy MacPhail to Matt Klentak to Ned Rice, they were involved in his drafting and initial development when all of them worked for the Orioles. The Phillies are capable of putting the biggest number in front of Machado.

But the Yankees will be involved in the conversation as well -- with far more payroll flexibility than they've had in years, with an immediate need at shortstop because of Didi Gregorius' elbow surgery, and with extreme motivation of ownership to run down the Red Sox in the American League East following Boston's championship.

If Harper chooses the Dodgers or some other team besides the Phillies, and if Machado lands with the Yankees or some other team besides the Phillies, that will mean Philly missed out on its three most prominent targets of the winter.

Even without Machado or Harper, there are plenty of avenues through which the Phillies can improve this winter, to contend with an increasingly competitive National League East. The trade for Segura and the signing of McCutchen should help them, for sure, and if Harper and Machado land elsewhere, the Phillies could use their extra cash to take advantage of the flush market of relievers or deal for one of the many available veteran starters. If Machado and Harper sign elsewhere, that might turn out to be fortunate, considering how those long-term deals often don't work out.

But for the hungry and patient fans of one of the original franchises, a winter yield of Segura and McCutchen and a few others -- but no Harper or Machado -- would feel like a collection of consolation prizes, and their focus would shift to the dream of Mike Trout in a Phillies uniform on Opening Day in 2021.