The Thanksgiving turkeys aren't in the oven yet and we already possess the most evergreen quote of baseball's winter, courtesy of Philadelphia Phillies owner John Middleton. No matter what happens with the team over the next year -- good or bad -- these words will be revisited constantly.
Middleton said about his team's plans for the winter, "We're going into this expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it. ... We just prefer not to be completely stupid."
If the Phillies spend exorbitantly and those acquired players lead them into the postseason, Middleton's words will be remembered as prophetic. And if the Phillies' newcomers flounder and don't perform up to the level of the investment, Middleton's words will still be treated as prophetic, especially the "little bit stupid" part.
But Middleton has been around long enough to know all that, to know how it goes in Philadelphia, and he will plow ahead. The Phillies haven't made the playoffs since 2011 and the team has been going through an extended period of reduced spending and farm-system rebuilding -- a polite way to describe tanking. They're now a team with significant financial resources, ready to grow the payroll substantially. Jake Arrieta, signed to a three-year deal last spring, is the only major contractual commitment on the books.
The Phillies' dollar obligations for the years to come, not including future arbitration awards:
2019: $68.9 million
2020: $50.7 million
2021: $15.1 million
2022: $8.75 million
Looking at that, the Phillies are perfectly positioned to be aggressive, and to be a little bit stupid. Considering what's available in this winter's market, here's a few suggestions on how to spend:
1. Sign either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. But not both. It seems a foregone conclusion that they'll wind up with at least one of the superstar position players. Harper would give the Phillies a needed left-handed power bat for the middle of their lineup. Machado would represent a significant upgrade on the left side of the Philadelphia infield regardless of whether he plays shortstop or third base, considering the struggles of Maikel Franco and J.P. Crawford.
And given the Phillies' tremendous payroll flexibility, yes, they could sign both, and it would be a major splash. They would be the most-talked-about team of the winter and would sell a lot of tickets for 2019.
But signing both would probably be more than a little bit stupid, the one path that Middleton and the front office could take that would put the team at risk. To sign two players for eight- to 12-year contracts at $35 million to $45 million annually -- and that might be the range for Machado and Harper -- would be to commit about 30 to 40 percent of the team's payroll for many years to come.
They need to consider the worst-case scenario if they landed both Harper and Machado: What happens if one or both signings don't work out, because of injury or performance problems?
The Phillies' team building would be stifled for many years to come as they tried to manage around the onerous contracts.
Could they do it? Sure. The Phillies are one of a very small handful of teams that could make two huge contractual mistakes and still compete. But it would be really, really difficult.
It would be better to play the two stars off each other in negotiations and pick one. Or just pick one and make sure you pay what's required to get him.
2. Sign one of three starting pitchers: Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi or Dallas Keuchel. The addition of one of those three would make a rotation that already includes Aaron Nola, Arrieta and Nick Pivetta quite formidable.
3. Sign a closer. Craig Kimbrel is the best available option, but there are many closers in the market, including Andrew Miller and Zach Britton. If the Phillies go after both Machado and Harper, they can save some money by spending less on this spot.
4. Sign Marwin Gonzalez, the former Astros utilityman. He can play anywhere, and like Ben Zobrist, he has embraced the role. For a manager filling out a lineup card, he's like a human Band-Aid, ready to cover any injury. Gonzalez says the position he's most comfortable playing is shortstop; Jose Altuve believes Gonzalez is a better defensive second baseman than he is. Gonzalez is a good outfielder, he's got some power, he's got some experience. For a lot of teams, he'd be a luxury item. For the Phillies, he's perfect.
5. Save some money for the late-winter bargains. There are going to be a whole lot of them as the market realities of supply and demand play out. The Phillies could add veteran depth to a lot of areas of their roster if they just wait.