By the end of spring training this year, there was an angry undercurrent among players and in the union because of the sheer volume of established veterans who were mostly ignored in free agency. Mark Reynolds, a solid defender who was closing in on 300 career homers, would remain unsigned until after the start of the season. Matt Holliday waited for a major league deal, before eventually taking a minor league deal in midseason and ascending to help the Rockies reach the postseason.
The frustration over the experienced players left behind would manifest in suggestions of management collusion, including one incendiary statement by an agent who, by the end of 2018, would be picked to be the general manager of the Mets.
This winter, there is bound to be more money spent on free agents than during the last offseason, as Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and a handful of others accumulate hundreds of millions of dollars in deals.
But for the rank and file -- for players like Holliday, Reynolds and many, many relievers -- it almost certainly will be a very cold winter of waiting for expected offers that never evolve.
Once again, it appears the volume of free agents will grow this winter, with many of those who took one-year deals last winter falling right back into the market. And front offices, working off the simple advantages rooted in supply and demand, will play the numbers game, some club evaluators predict.
Sarah Langs, a researcher at ESPN, counts 99 players who signed big league contracts in free agency last winter -- a figure that doesn't include players such as Holliday and Reynolds, who had to settle for minor league deals. Of those 99 players, 27 signed one-year major league contracts, and are looking for jobs again (CC Sabathia is an exception: He signed a one-year deal last winter, and recently took another one-year, $8 million contract with the Yankees for 2019).
As of today, there are 150 unsigned free agents, a number that promises to swell by Nov. 30, the date by which teams have to set their 40-man rosters and players are dumped through non-tender.
The number of free-agent relievers has just about doubled over recent winters, and relievers figure to be among the players who don't receive contract offers, as clubs look to take advantage of the many market choices, seeking those with high spin rates, or high velocity.
"If you're a reliever, you'd better hope that you look good in the analytics," one evaluator mused recently. "The guys who don't are probably going to struggle to get decent offers."
If there is a veteran reliever of middling performance who is pegged to make $3 million to $5 million through arbitration, it may be that his team would prefer to dump that obligation and instead pluck one or more of the many, many relievers who are going to make closer to minimum salary next season.
In recent years, there has been a philosophical shift about the handling of relievers, and about paying for saves -- and the market is absolutely flooded right now with veterans who have experience closing games. Craig Kimbrel is preeminent among this group, with 333 saves in the regular season, and he recently turned down a qualifying offer of $17.9 million from the Red Sox. For any team that doesn't want to pay that kind of money for end-of-game experience, here are some of the other free-agent options:
Zach Britton
Cody Allen
Andrew Miller
Jeurys Familia
David Robertson
Joe Kelly
Sergio Romo
Justin Wilson
Tyler Clippard
Kelvin Herrera
Shawn Kelley
Greg Holland
John Axford
Bud Norris
Ryan Madson
Santiago Casilla
A.J. Ramos
Jim Johnson
Last winter, some of the big names in the corner infield/outfield slugger group did worse than expected in free agency, including Mike Moustakas. This winter, some very prominent and accomplished relievers may still be waiting for suitable offers on the eve of spring training -- offers that might never materialize.