A week before the playoffs began, Joe Kelly was right on the cutting edge of Boston's postseason roster because of a September slump and concerns about his consistency. But now, a week after Kelly was an October hero for the Red Sox, he is set up to be paid well in free agency, in an offseason in which a lot of relievers may be disappointed by the offers they receive.
The swell of free-agent relievers will be well over 50 by the time teams complete their decisions to tender contract offers (or not) -- more than double the number of relievers who have been on the open market in most winters. Bullpen guys have become to MLB what running backs are to NFL franchises: They are used heavily for a short period of time, working through heightened risk of injury, and because breakdown is inevitable, most relievers don't get the big payoffs.
But as with last winter, some free-agent relievers will land good deals, such as:
Kelly, who will be 30 years old on Opening Day in 2019.
By the end of the World Series, his exuberant dances off the mound reflected a confidence that erupted after the Red Sox staff worked with him to pare down his repertoire. Boston pitching coach Dana LeVangie and Brian Bannister, the team's pitching assistant, talked with Kelly late in the year about simplifying his options. With the postseason looming, the staff wanted Kelly and other Red Sox relievers to work with good tempo through more streamlined options, in a time of season when there is so much concern about sign-stealing. Kelly ditched his slider and relied on his curveball, and crushed October with three plus pitches -- his fastball, changeup and yes, the curve. The right-hander faced 44 batters in the postseason and allowed just eight hits and one earned run, without issuing a single walk.
Kelly is an exceptional athlete, one of the hardest-throwing relievers in the game and a spin-rate master. "When he gets hot, he's as good as anybody," said one evaluator, "because of his premium stuff."
In early discussions with Kelly's representatives, the Levinson brothers, some teams have mentioned the idea of signing Kelly to be a closer; other teams have discussed setup roles. No matter what his role is, ultimately, he figures to be paid well. If Kelly had been left off the postseason roster, he probably still would have been in line for a two-year deal in the $16 million-$18 million range because of his wide range of pitching tools. But his October dominance rounded out his free-agent résumé, and now he figures to be among the highest-paid relievers not named Craig Kimbrel.
Andrew Miller, who turns 34 next May.
Miller sometimes struggled through knee and delivery problems in the two years since he was an October star for the 2016 Indians. His velocity was down overall for 2018, but in his last month of action for Cleveland, he demonstrated he has plenty of pure stuff -- against the White Sox on Sept. 19, Miller had an average fastball velocity of 95 mph, while pitching in the second of back-to-back games.
But despite his command problems, he will presumably draw a high volume of interested teams intrigued by the possibility of what Miller could be at his best. The Cubs don't have a lot of payroll flexibility, but Miller would be an absolutely perfect fit given the needs of Joe Maddon's bullpen. The Dodgers could really use a left-hander. The Yankees loved Miller before they traded him, and with David Robertson moving on and the Yankees always game planning for October, they could bid aggressively. The Astros, who bid heavily on Miller the last time he was a free agent, need another left-hander for their bullpen.
Miller's pliability is probably really attractive to teams as well: He has demonstrated in the past he does not care what role he fills, or what inning he pitches. It's because of his unusual perspective that he may not necessarily play his free agency the way many do -- simply settling for the highest offer. The Astros actually outbid the Yankees for Miller the last time the lefty was a free agent, and this time around, Miller could pick a landing spot where he's most comfortable, with the best chance to win. One evaluator suggested the best way to use Miller might be in a Josh Hader-type role -- getting consistent rest between appearances that might be somewhat extended, of four to six batters.
Jake Diekman, who will turn 32 in January.
Diekman is in the midst of an unusual journey through his major league career. He suffered from ulcerative colitis before having a colectomy in 2017, and he came back to pitch in 11 games for the Rangers that year, and 71 games for Texas and Arizona in 2018.
His overall numbers last summer were not great -- 31 walks in 53⅓ innings. But Diekman's velocity returned, to an average of 95 mph last season. Pitch assessments show he was hurt a lot on his slider in 2018, and as one exec noted Wednesday, that actually works for him in free agency: He had a discernible problem some teams will probably believe they can help fix. All the teams that have interest in Miller could be involved in conversations with Diekman as well.
"If you're a power lefty, you're going to get some attention," one NL staffer said.