Agents and executives have noted a trend -- a concerning trend, for the veteran players -- that will soon manifest for the middle class of the free-agent market: Teams are filling some of their big needs through trades.
The St. Louis Cardinals just landed Paul Goldschmidt to play first base in a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The New York Yankees filled their primary rotation hole by trading for the Mariners' James Paxton. The New York Mets traded for Robinson Cano to anchor their infield, and for Edwin Diaz to be their closer. The Philadelphia Phillies snagged Jean Segura to play shortstop or second base. The Chicago White Sox upgraded their bullpen by dealing for Alex Colome. The Washington Nationals filled their catching spot by trading for the Indians' Yan Gomes.
Patrick Corbin killed it in free agency with his six-year deal. Nathan Eovaldi appears poised to get a big deal, and Manny Machado and Bryce Harper will do really, really well. But there are close to 200 free agents right now, a group increased in volume last week through the contract tender decisions by clubs, and inevitably, a bunch of players are going to get left behind, scrambling for dollars or even jobs, in the way that Mark Reynolds and Matt Holliday did last winter.
And unless there is a significant adjustment negotiated soon, this ensures that the same problem could exist or grow next winter, after so many players have to take one-year offers this year and go back into the market next fall. An ugly situation is getting worse.
But it's still relatively early in the offseason, and contenders are working right now to improve their rosters for next year. The biggest holes yet to be filled by contenders:
1. Phillies: middle-of-the-order bat. Does that mean Harper? Does that mean Machado? Or both? The Phillies already have been aggressive this offseason, and there's more to come.
2. Dodgers: an outfielder. They've made it clear to some other clubs that they are very open to moving outfielders on their current roster -- maybe that could be Joc Pederson, maybe Yasiel Puig. However they get there, it does appear as if they're setting up for the addition of an outfielder, whether it's Harper, or maybe A.J. Pollock, who is going to get the biggest contract on the second tier of available outfielders.
3. Yankees: starting pitcher. As written here, their strategy in moving aggressively for Paxton was to take some pressure off their decision-making moving forward, so they wouldn't feel compelled to overpay for a Corbin, or Eovaldi. There are still plenty of starting pitching options available, including the trade possibilities with Cleveland, and as the game of musical chairs plays out in this particular corner of baseball's winter work, they'll get somebody decent.
4. Red Sox: closer. Their preference is to re-sign Craig Kimbrel, and it may be that Red Sox honcho David Dombrowski handles this patiently in the way he did with J.D. Martinez last winter. If you recall, the Red Sox made a solid offer on Martinez and sat on it, reading the market and guessing that their offer for that particular player was probably the most aggressive. The fact that there are so many closers available works in the favor of the Red Sox, because the supply-and-demand dynamic makes it less likely other teams will bid big on a closer, and if some other club does outbid Boston for Kimbrel, there are plenty of decent Plan B's available.
5. Mets: catcher and/or right-handed hitting outfielder. Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen mentioned Pollock as someone who fits what the team needs, and the team also has had some talks with Yasmani Grandal, who, according to metrics, was the second-best catcher in baseball last year behind J.T. Realmuto. The Mets also could push for a deal for Realmuto.
6. Brewers: starting pitcher. Wade Miley threw well last season as the Brewers made the playoffs, and the free agent is one option. But remember last winter, and last summer, when everybody kept waiting for Milwaukee to push aggressively for a starter? The Brewers worked conservatively, won through a lot of great work from their bullpen, and finished the year with the best record in the National League.
7. Astros: starting pitcher. It seems unlikely that Houston will re-sign Dallas Keuchel, and Charlie Morton is also a free agent. The Astros have some internal candidates to step into the rotation, like the extremely promising Josh James, but it figures that the team that won the second-most games in MLB last season will add someone through free agency.
8. Giants: a lot of stuff. The Giants haven't really declared their intent this winter, whether to try to upgrade the current roster that is older, or to take a step back. The Mariners and Diamondbacks are the latest teams to demonstrate that a lot of executives feel like the worst possible place to be on baseball's landscape is stuck in the middle. More and more teams seem to be devoted to the concept that you should either be going all-out to win, or all-out to rebuild (or, in some cases, to tank).
The Giants, backed by an ardent fan base, could try to thread the needle and win next year -- and certainly will have a lot of options available through free agency, as the winter plays out.