The James Paxton trade was one of the first of Major League Baseball's offseason, and part of the New York Yankees' thinking in grabbing the left-hander from Seattle was that it would inoculate them from any desperation. No matter what followed, the Yankees would know that their rotation would start with Paxton, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia, and that they would not feel compelled to overbid or overcompensate.
When the Washington Nationals added a sixth year to their offer for Patrick Corbin, the Yankees did not chase that. Nor did any other team. Corbin relies heavily on his slider, a pitch that has historically had a troublesome relationship with elbow ligaments, and for a lot of evaluators, six years and more than $100 million is a major gamble.
The Yankees are left to consider next-best options in their quest to improve their team.
1. Nathan Eovaldi. He is regarded as the best right-hander on the market. The Yankees know him well from his time with the team and from his work against them in 2018, when his pure stuff had more movement than ever before. His World Series heroics only added to his value, and a bidding war for him is imminent. The Red Sox would like the keep him, the Yankees would like him, and he's an absolutely perfect fit for the Houston Astros. Eovaldi grew up just outside of Houston; he is the type of hard thrower that the Astros have targeted in recent winters, and soon enough, Jeff Luhnow will have his own starting pitching concerns. Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel moved into free agency this winter, and next winter, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole could become eligible to follow. On a four- or five-year deal, Eovaldi could be a bridge in 2020 for the Astros.
It's possible that the Yankees won't chase Eovaldi in the bidding and match other teams dollar for dollar and year for year, just as they did not chase Corbin.
2. The Yankees could try to work out a deal for one of the available Indians starting pitchers. Cleveland made it known to the industry a month ago that it would listen to offers for its three best starting pitchers -- Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer. Kluber is the most accomplished of the three, the winner of two Cy Young Awards, and he's on a team-friendly contract that carries almost no financial risk. Kluber is also the oldest of the three, turning 33 next spring. Carrasco will be 32 in March, and he has been a metronome of production in recent years, with a 3.40 ERA in 119 starts while working under a modest contract similar to that of Kluber.
Bauer is the youngest (he turns 28 in January) and just had the best season of his career, posting a 2.21 ERA in a season truncated when a batted ball caused a stress fracture in his fibula. Within the Indians' organization, Bauer is seen as the ultimate plow horse -- someone who seems to be able to throw all day, every day. He'll be eligible for arbitration this winter and next, before building enough service time to reach free agency.
The Indians would love to shed the contract of either Jason Kipnis or Edwin Encarnacion, and it's possible they would look to attach one of those two to any starting pitcher deal executed. The Yankees are one of the few teams that is in a position to even consider that kind of thing, with Kipnis being the better fit because of positional flexibility. Or the Yankees could take Kipnis in order to finish a starting pitcher deal with Cleveland and just flip him back into the market. Trade history between general managers always helps, and Yankees GM Brian Cashman and Indians executive Chris Antonetti have successfully worked together in the past, including the Andrew Miller trade in 2016.
3. J.A. Happ. The left-hander is probably the market option with the least marquee value, because he's not as big of a name as Kluber or a Madison Bumgarner. But after the Yankees traded for him last summer, after waiting for more compelling options to develop, Happ pitched well for them, handling the New York scrutiny easily (in contrast, in the eyes of the Yankees, to Sonny Gray). Happ was 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA in 11 starts in the regular season.
But Happ also allowed five runs in two-plus innings to the Red Sox in the AL Division Series, reinforcing the industry concern that he doesn't necessarily have the kind of plus stuff to beat good-hitting teams in big moments -- like the Red Sox, or the Astros. The Yankees also would have motivated competition for Happ, who is reportedly the primary Plan B option for the Phillies now that Philadelphia lost out on Corbin.
There's something else for the Yankees' consideration through this winter. Sabathia is 38 years old, Tanaka is 30 and pitching with a partial tear in his elbow ligament, and the oft-injured Paxton is 30 and has made more than 24 starts in a season only once in his career. A perfect scenario for the Yankees would be to add someone younger, and Happ is 36 and is likely to require an investment of at least two years.
4. Bumgarner is theoretically a market alternative, although teams that have checked in with the Giants say they don't seem seriously interested in moving the lefty. As written here last month, there's also concern about some next-layer metrics on Bumgarner's fastball.
5. The Yankees could get involved in the bidding for Keuchel, but the lefty is a Scott Boras client and if the Yankees decide they don't have to try to chase down any particular starter, Keuchel may move beyond a comfortable range for them.
6. Yusei Kikuchi, 27, was a star pitcher in recent seasons in Japan, where he had a 2.81 ERA in the past eight seasons. Cashman has had a range of experiences with pitchers from Japan, from awful (Kei Igawa) to excellent (Hiroki Kuroda and Tanaka).
7. The Yankees could focus on bolstering their pitching depth by taking advantage of a market saturated with relief options. They could target the best in a group of about 60 relievers, like Andrew Miller and Zach Britton (the Yankees thought Britton was improving as last season went along).
8. They could aim to make their pitching better by going all-in on Manny Machado, the Gold Glove infielder. But Machado would cost hundreds of millions of dollars, not tens of millions, and it figures that any move on the All-Star would be driven by Hal Steinbrenner.
It's not the perfect set of Plan B's for the Yankees, but they do have a lot of avenues to explore, with a lot of money to spend.