The timing of Farhan Zaidi's hiring by the San Francisco Giants could not be better for an organization that probably needs a clear-eyed examination of its most treasured on-field asset. It would be too much to ask some in the ownership group or front office to wholly separate themselves emotionally from Madison Bumgarner, who played an important role in two championships, in 2010 and 2012, before almost single-handedly carrying the group to a third title in 2014.
Just in case the passing years have muddied your memory of 2014, there are some statistical keepsakes from his work for the Giants that fall. Bumgarner pitched 52 2/3 innings in that postseason, more than twice as many as any other pitcher on any team that October. Nathan Eovaldi earned accolades for extending himself during Boston's recent championship run, 22 1/3 innings of excellence, and soon he will be paid well for that. Bumgarner threw 31 2/3 innings in the 2014 postseason before tacking on another 21 innings in the World Series -- and had a 1.03 ERA in the playoffs and World Series combined.
Bumgarner is 29 years old and entering the final year of a long-term, team-friendly contract, and last summer, teams that asked the Giants about his availability were told flatly: No. Because of legacy, the Giants had no intention of trading him.
But Zaidi doesn't wear any of the championship rings won by Bumgarner, and he is undoubtedly aware of current metrics that suggest the left-hander is showing signs of regression. Presumably, the team's new president will be central in any honest conversation about whether the Giants should invest another long-term deal in Bumgarner before he reaches the free-agent market next fall, or whether now is the time to take advantage of his trade value, whatever that is.
Different clubs place different levels of importance on various numbers, but there are a few baseline statistics that serve as a floor across the industry as evaluators consider the question of whether a pitcher is in decline.
First, there's velocity. According to Fangraphs, Bumgarner's average fastball readings have dipped slightly.
2014: 92.1 mph
2015: 92.1 mph
2016: 90.9 mph
2017: 91.0 mph
2018: 90.9 mph
Bumgarner's fastball readings aren't as crucial as for other pitchers, because a lot of the effectiveness of his stuff is based on the deception of his delivery and his ability to execute pitches. He can dominate without high velocity.
But given his relative velocity, he does operate with less margin for error, and he's increasingly being hurt on his four-seam fastball, as these yearly opponent OPS numbers dug out by Sarah Langs show:
2014: .619
2015: .669
2016: .734
2017: .785
2018: .954
The production reflected in that last number -- a .954 OPS against his four-steam fastball -- is staggering. Consider that Astros star Alex Bregman had an overall OPS of .926 for the 2018 season.
The rate of hard contact against Bumgarner has steadily climbed.
2014: 26.9 percent
2015: 27.8 percent
2016: 31.6 percent
2017: 35.0 percent
2018: 41.6 percent
Part of the Giants' evaluation of Bumgarner -- and the scouting reports of rival staffers -- will also have to take into account the freak injuries he's suffered the past two seasons. Early in 2017, Bumgarner hurt his shoulder in a dirt bike accident, and at the end of what had been an outstanding spring training this year -- with increased velocity -- he suffered a broken finger. His performance the past two seasons was affected in some regard, and it's up to Zaidi and his staff to try to quantify that as best as they can.
And there is this ugly reality: The Giants have been awful the past two years, ranking among the worst teams in baseball. Bumgarner demonstrated an intangible quality in past postseasons by seemingly lifting his performance under the most challenging circumstances. Is it possible, then, that he and others were dragged down by the Giants' moribund showing, and the fact that they were competitively dead in back-to-back Augusts?
It's also possible that other teams see potential fixes for Bumgarner in pitch selection, sequencing and delivery, just as the Astros addressed stuff they felt could help Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.
The Giants should at least have the conversations with other teams to find out what they could get in return for Bumgarner, who might look like a very attractive option to contenders because -- first and foremost -- he's Madison Bumgarner, and because there's only a one-year obligation on his contract and relatively little risk. Once Zaidi knows that, he can present an educated recommendation to his bosses, who might say no.
Or they might say yes, and Bumgarner, forever a Giant regardless of whether he plays elsewhere, might find himself in another team's uniform in spring training.