The Arizona Diamondbacks' Paul Goldschmidt finished sixth in the National League MVP voting this year, the fourth top-10 MVP placement of his career -- he was second in 2013 and 2015 and third in 2016. His performance this year was particularly remarkable because he started very slowly, struggling against high-velocity pitches. But from May 23 through the end of the regular season, he hit .328 with an OPS over 1.000.
Next year will be the last in a long-term deal Goldschmidt signed in 2013. As has been reported before, the Diamondbacks are open to dealing the first baseman -- and, in the eyes of some rival evaluators, they are intent on moving him as they enter a period of rebuilding.
But as great as Goldschmidt was over the last three-quarters of the season, the market conditions are not optimal for the Diamondbacks to move him. There aren't a lot of contenders looking for a first baseman, and the fact that Goldschmidt has just one season remaining before he reaches free agency will mitigate his trade value. The Cubs have Anthony Rizzo, the Dodgers have Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy, the Braves have Freddie Freeman.
One evaluator estimated the Diamondbacks' return for Goldschmidt would be more than what the Pirates got for Andrew McCutchen last winter from the Giants -- outfielder Bryan Reynolds, pitcher Kyle Crick and international slot bonus dollars -- but less than what the Orioles got for Manny Machado in Baltimore's midseason deal with the Dodgers last summer. Baltimore received five minor leaguers from L.A., the most notable being outfield prospect Yusniel Diaz.
The Cardinals and Astros are among the teams most interested in Goldschmidt so far. Rival executives say St. Louis seems open (again) to discussing big ideas, and adding Goldschmidt would give the Cardinals a needed thumper right in the middle of their lineup. The franchise has a long history of adding elite players as they near free agency in the hope they can convince them to stay with a long-term deal. That's what happened with Mark McGwire and Matt Holliday, among others, and that's what didn't happen with Jason Heyward. If the Cardinals finish a deal for Goldschmidt, they would have to move Matt Carpenter somewhere else in the field. St. Louis has a wide range of young pitching it could deal with the Diamondbacks.
Rival executives report that the Yankees seemed to be pushing Justus Sheffield in conversations about a possible Goldschmidt deal before they moved Sheffield to the Mariners as the prime piece for James Paxton, and in the same way, there is a perception among other teams that the Astros are nudging 22-year-old pitcher J.B. Bukauskas, a first-round pick in 2017, as they begin to shop for upgrades. No deal appears to be close for the Astros, but if Houston made a trade for Goldschmidt -- perhaps placing first baseman Yordan Alvarez as a centerpiece -- then Goldschmidt could bolster what was a disappointing offense in 2018. Yuli Gurriel could absorb some of the role left behind by Marwin Gonzalez, the free-agent utilityman who is expected to sign elsewhere.
The Astros also have been active in discussions with the tier of free agents below Bryce Harper -- the likes of A.J. Pollack, McCutchen and Michael Brantley.
The Diamondbacks could gamble by keeping Goldschmidt into the 2019 season and hope his performance before the trade deadline would bolster his value. But Arizona has to make the same assessment the Pirates did last winter with McCutchen: Do they want the dominant conversation around their team to be about a revered superstar and his impending departure, or would it be better to make their best deal this winter and move on?