Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto offered an honest description of the true nature of baseball struggles in 2018 when he spoke with reporters last January. "You could argue you're going to compete with more clubs to get the first pick in the draft," he said at the time, "than you would to win the World Series."
Through the working model perfected and demonstrated by the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs, it has become apparent that under the current rules, the most effective strategy is to go all-out or go all-in. It goes something like this: Slash payroll deeply (and maximize profit), get rid of your best veterans, field a terrible team and aim for the bottom of the standings -- and you will be rewarded with the best talent at the top of the draft, like a Carlos Correa, a Kris Bryant, an Alex Bregman. And when you deem your club ready to ascend, that's when you spend, and add a Jon Lester, a Justin Verlander.
All-in or all-out, fully devoted either way. Never, ever let yourself get caught half-in, or half-out, and stuck in the middle -- not really contending for the World Series title, but picking 14th or 15th in the draft instead of first or second.
Dipoto knows the formula, and because the players' association didn't prioritize anti-tanking measures in the last round of collective bargaining and MLB hasn't taken steps unilaterally to address the problem, this is what the Mariners should do, now that Dipoto has surrendered the 2019 and 2020 seasons by trading his best pitcher, James Paxton.
All-in, or all-out. The Mariners have indicated to other clubs they're willing to listen to offers for all their veterans, while holding a few young players off-limits, such as outfielder Mitch Haniger, who has just over two years of service time.
But Dipoto should put price tags on everybody with big league experience and price them to move, because by the time the Mariners are competitive again, Haniger will be well advanced in service time and closing in on free agency. Haniger, 27, makes close to the minimum salary, so you can imagine the Mariners could get some really good young prospects for a solid defender who hit .285 with 26 homers in 157 games last year.
Dipoto could position Haniger as a great alternative for the teams that don't want to pay Bryce Harper. Infielder Jean Segura is 28 years old, hit over .300 each of the past three years, and is locked into a team-friendly contract through 2023 for the total price of $60.4 million -- and Dipoto could (and should) sell him as a piece attractive to those not interested in giving Manny Machado a nine-figure contract.
Closer Edwin Diaz is 24 years old and one of the best and highest-impact relievers in baseball, with 301 strikeouts in 191 career innings; teams probably would be lined up to take a shot at him. What's the point of having an elite closer for a bad team? And by the time the Mariners move back up the leaderboard, Diaz might be on the downslope of his career. Marco Gonzales, 26 years old, left-handed and a low-wage young player, could draw nice offers. Sell, sell, sell, whatever you can. Robinson Cano has five years and $120 million remaining on the $240 million deal he signed with the Mariners prior to the 2014 season, and he's 36 years old and just served a PED suspension. He's still a threat as a hitter. Seattle won't get anything of real value for him, but they might be able to save some money on his contract if they eat, say, 80 percent of the remaining dollars. Or maybe they could flip him for some other team's bad contract, with some cash attached -- like to the Yankees for Jacoby Ellsbury, who has two years and about $42 million remaining on his deal. The Mariners could kick in another $30 million to $50 million, and in this way, the Mariners could reduce the financial obligation of any buyer to what Cano might get in free agency right now, which is probably $20 million to $30 million.
Does it all seem crazy, to sell down like that? Not really. Back in 2013, the Astros finished the season with exactly one player making more than $1 million, and now they have rings. The Cubs' payroll was about $100 million. In recent seasons, the powerhouse Phillies have spent under $100 million. This is what Dipoto was talking about last winter, when he referenced the competition for the No. 1 pick.
All-in. Or all-out. And the Mariners should go all-out.