The hot stove season is officially underway now, although the start is slow, as usual. My free-agent rankings went up over a week ago, and here's a companion piece looking at 13 players who might be traded this offseason. Some veterans are heading toward free agency, while others are young players blocked from regular playing time.
This isn't supposed to represent every big-name player or prospect who might be traded, but rather highlights guys I think are likely to be traded or at least heavily discussed. In some cases, they are players who should be traded for baseball reasons even if the relevant ownership says no for business reasons.
1B Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks: All that hand-wringing over Goldschmidt's tough start to 2018 -- which amounted to a few extra strikeouts and some fluky results in May -- was much ado about nothing. From June 1 to the end of the season, he hit .330/.420/.602, very close to his normal production level from the previous five years (.304/.410/.543). He's a bargain at $14.5 million for one year, and obviously worth a qualifying offer a year from now for a team that acquires him via trade and then lets him leave as a free agent. He's 31 years old now, so a long-term deal probably buys you no upside while paying for years in which he's in decline, but outside of that little blip this past season, there isn't any real reason to expect him to lose value in the short term.
Even for just one year, he's such a game-changer for any team that Arizona could and should ask for a huge return -- one of those four-prospect deals in which two of the names coming back are very significant. Arizona's farm system has already started to turn around since general manager Mike Hazen took over, and smart selling this winter could accelerate the process so that the D-backs are down for only two or three seasons. The only obstacle here is that there aren't many contenders with clear openings at first base. But there's one glaring one in the Bronx, and -- if ownership can acknowledge the need -- there's a void at first in Anaheim, too.
C J.T. Realmuto, Miami Marlins: There's no catching out there; Realmuto is a good offensive catcher who throws and receives well but frames poorly; I don't actually understand the Marlins' strategy for anything. So Realmuto is probably available in trade, but it's not clear for what.
I would assume the Marlins will receive multiple prospect-laden offers and will do quite well in the end, with so many contenders lacking a current everyday guy behind the plate. The Nationals keep coming up as a potential trade partner, since they don't have an incumbent regular. The Mets could be one, depending on the direction the new front office wishes to take. The Astros will need a regular catcher in 2019. And several other contenders would see an upgrade over their existing option(s) by adding Realmuto. The Marlins could use pretty much anything at this point, but especially need help that's close to the big leagues. Keeping Realmuto really makes little sense for them now.
RH starting pitcher Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks: Greinke is halfway through his six-year deal with the Diamondbacks and is due $95.5 million over the remainder of the contract -- but at current market prices, he's close to worth it, especially given how durable he has been in his career. Greinke has made at least 26 starts in 11 straight seasons, 28 starts in eight of those 11, and missed qualifying for the ERA title just once, falling 3⅓ innings short in 2016.
He still has excellent control, misses plenty of bats, and pitches in a way that really doesn't rely on big velocity, giving reason to think he'll hold his value over the rest of the deal. He's a 4-win pitcher (in WAR terms) with some variance around that -- he has suppressed BABIP relative to the league for four years now, which might indicate he has some skill in that area -- and I would guess any team that can take all or most of the contract wouldn't have to give up much in prospects to acquire him.
LF/1B/DH Kyle Schwarber & 2B/OF Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have a surfeit of potential everyday position players and can't get them all in the lineup at the same time, so at least one and probably two or more will have to be traded to make the best use of the available talent.
Schwarber hit only .238 in 2018, but his power/OBP combination made him quite valuable anyway, and he crushed right-handed pitching, making him about a 2-win player if he were a full-time designated hitter. I just don't see where Schwarber can play; even with a lot of work on his part, he's still a liability in left field, and he's utterly blocked at first base by Anthony Rizzo. He'd be an upgrade for more than half of the American League teams at DH, although Houston was the only 2018 playoff team in the AL to get below-average production from the DH spot.
Happ played seven different positions for the Cubs in 2018 -- he didn't catch or play shortstop, but he did throw one inning -- appearing more in center field than anywhere else, even though that might be his worst position defensively. He's best suited to playing second, yet the Cubs don't seem to like him there. They have other options at second, including David Bote and -- if they bring shortstop Addison Russell back in spite of his domestic violence suspension -- Javier Baez. Happ's versatility and OBP skills make him valuable for a lot of clubs who would like to mix and match at second or in either outfield corner.
2B Cesar Hernandez, Philadelphia Phillies: Hernandez's production has been unexpected and quiet, but he's a legitimate 3-win regular at second who offers plus defense and gets on base at a high clip. He's two years from free agency and should be a bargain through arbitration, as that process tends not to reward the things he's good at. Trading Hernandez would allow the Phillies to move Scott Kingery back to his best position, where he's a plus and potentially grade-70 defender, which might in turn help Kingery improve his offense since he won't be trying to play a position he can't handle. The Angels, Dodgers, Nationals and Twins could all use his OBP skills and defense to improve themselves at second base. The Cubs have a surplus around their infield, but assuming Baez becomes the everyday shortstop in 2019, Hernandez would be an upgrade over their remaining options at second.
RH starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians: Cleveland exercised its $9.75 million option for 2019 on Carrasco, and he still has another option year on the deal for 2020 for another $9.5 million. But the way he has pitched lately he's worth at least twice that, generating over 10 WAR of value the past two seasons with a 3.33 ERA over 392 innings. It has been a quiet performance, as he's overshadowed by the more dominant Corey Kluber and the more, um, outspoken Trevor Bauer.
Carrasco works with two plus offspeed pitches in his slider and changeup, so even though his fastball plays below its velocity, he still misses a ton of bats. I also like his potential to stay effective even as his velocity eventually dips with age because he works so well with his secondary stuff. Cleveland should shop him now, at a high point in his value, and ask for the sun and the moon, because there's nobody near him for value and track record on the trade or free-agent markets.
LH starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner: The old gray mare ain't what he used to be ... although the shortage of starting pitching on the free-agent front might induce someone to pay for Bumgarner, who is a free agent next winter, in the hopes that he becomes his 2011-15 self again once healthy. He has made 38 starts total the past two seasons, with a partial tear in his shoulder taking him out for half of 2017 and a fractured left hand costing him about a third of 2018. When he has pitched, the results haven't been as good; his velocity is still there, but hitters are on his fastball more, and last season he ramped up use of his curveball to try to compensate. Hitters don't square that up, so there's some reason to hope that a healthy Bumgarner in 2019 is at least more of a No. 2 starter, if not all the way back to an ace. For a Giants team going nowhere in the short term -- they scored the second-fewest runs in the National League last season, ahead of only the tanking Marlins -- keeping Bumgarner makes little to no sense, and San Francisco's farm system could use the infusion of talent a trade might bring.
OF Alex Verdugo, Los Angeles Dodgers: Verdugo has probably been ready for a major league job as a corner outfielder, ideally right field given his incredible arm strength, for a year now. But the Dodgers haven't had at-bats to give him, with Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig and Chris Taylor taking most of them and Enrique Hernandez and Joc Pederson also in the mix.
The Dodgers could choose to move someone in that group other than Bellinger, but Verdugo seems like the most valuable asset to trade, since he still has six years of control remaining, projects as an above-average everyday player, and is ready right now. He could be part of a package to acquire a catcher for 2019 as the Dodgers wait for catching prospects Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith to arrive, or to acquire a full-time second baseman, or to add a starter given the uncertainty around the final two spots in their rotation and the low workloads we might expect from their front three. I do think he's ready, however, with high contact rates, solid OBP skills and the potential for 20-plus homers, along with some speed and very good defense.
3B Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies: The Rockies are at a difficult inflection point with Arenado. They've made the wild-card game the past two seasons, and the team is still almost entirely intact for 2019, losing one non-core player in DJ LeMahieu but with a ready replacement in Brendan Rodgers. They could certainly make the playoffs again, and they have a reasonable chance to take the division if the Dodgers stumble, especially with the Diamondbacks ready to sell and the Giants still stuck in neutral.
They're also entering the final year of control over Arenado, who will earn north of $20 million in arbitration this winter and then head to free agency next offseason at 28, likely looking for a $30 million-per-year, long-term deal. The Rockies could trade him now for what would be a franchise-altering haul of young talent; one would think any team that was in on Manny Machado but fell short would want to explore trading for a 6-win player like Arenado. Or they could hold him for one more year, hope to make the playoffs again and then accept that he'll walk next winter. It's not an easy decision, but I think if the potential return is high enough, they have to move him, with the Yankees and Phillies both obvious partners if either doesn't land Machado.
2B Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals: I'm skeptical of Merrifield even after two solid years of major league performance, since it was completely out of line with anything he did in six years in the minors. That's all the more reason the Royals, who are years away from relevance in the AL Central, should shop him now even though he's not due to hit arbitration for another year. Merrifield turns 30 in January, so by the time he's a free agent he's probably going to be a bench player rather than a potential regular, and I'd bet that he never reaches his 2018 WAR total of 5.5 (Baseball-Reference.com)/5.2 (FanGraphs) again -- especially since it depended so much on a .352 BABIP. Kansas City could trade him and promote prospect Nicky Lopez to play second every day, with Adalberto Mondesi the regular shortstop, and potentially add some prospects to a system that has very little right now above Class A.
1B Dominic Smith or Peter Alonso, New York Mets: The Mets have two young first basemen ready for the majors, and only one spot, so one of these two guys is going to be surplus talent. Smith is a great defender who has a long history of hitting for average and showing power in batting practice more than in games, but hasn't hit yet in about a half-season of MLB at-bats with irregular playing time. Alonso destroyed Double-A last year and fared well in his last month in Triple-A after a slow start there (in Las Vegas, a great hitter's environment), but is a poor defender who is probably better suited to DH than to playing first.
If you could somehow mash these two guys together, you'd have Paul Goldschmidt, but the jury is still out on that kind of science, so the Mets probably have a decision to make here. My guess is Smith is the one the Mets will move, and he's a good buy-low candidate for rebuilding teams or clubs who just generally like to take chances on out-of-favor prospects. The Rays and A's are often the answers there, but both have incumbents at first in Jake Bauers and Matt Olson, respectively, and neither seems like a fit at the moment.