One of the things that baseball analysts get asked a lot is whether a team should sign or trade for a particular player. Generally, this focuses on star players, simply because there isn't a lot of hot-stove intrigue about who will land Gerardo Parra.
But the truth about stars is that there's a price at which any star isn't worth the money or the prospects; there's a price point out there at which you'd prefer to sign Parra than Bryce Harper. Rather than continue to pick on Parra, let's get Kenny Loggins in your head and look at the signs for the highway to the free-agent danger zone.
The largest source of risk in free agency tends to be overexuberance about star players.
This is a lesson that has generally been poorly learned throughout baseball history until recently. While it makes financial sense to sink your money into stars -- it's far more difficult to develop a star than an average player on your own -- many teams and even more fan bases tend to drastically overrate just how dependable a star's future is.
Nowhere is this more obvious than in the Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera contracts, which are sterling examples of paying for a player's past rather than his future. Neither was remotely overrated in his prime, both players are Hall of Fame locks based on those primes. Setting up blockbuster deals for Pujols and Cabrera starting at their age 32 and 33 seasons, respectively, was never going to have a happy ending -- and this isn't with the benefit of hindsight.
One fortunate thing for heavy-spending teams this offseason is that two of the biggest names, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, are young for free agents, both in their mid-20s. It should also be remembered that this is no guarantee of a nice, smooth aging curve.
Matt Kemp wasn't an old player when the Dodgers gave him an eight-year, $160 million contract after his .324/.399/.586, 8.3 WAR (FanGraphs) season in 2011 at age 26. He has been worth only 10.1 WAR over the seven seasons since. The $142 million contract given to 28-year-old Carl Crawford turned out even worse, at only 3.7 WAR.
Each of the top 10 free agents (based on the ZiPS rankings) comes with a risk that teams need to seriously consider, lest they be the one at the top of a "worst contracts" article three years from now.
1. Manny Machado, SS/3B
There's something to worry about Machado in free agency and I'm not talking about his behavior during the postseason or past displays of immaturity, but simply the fact that he wants to play shortstop. It's helpful that the Orioles decided to play him at shortstop in 2018, but we still don't know just how good he is at short long term; his defensive numbers for Baltimore were quite atrocious before his Dodgers bounce-back. The difference between a league-average shortstop and a minus-10 shortstop is an entire win, which adds up considerably over a contract that may be 10 years long. A bad guess on Machado's defensive abilities could easily be a $100 million blunder by itself.
And going to third may not be a cure-all either if he struggles at shortstop the next few years. Machado's defensive numbers at third also were down from the Gold Glove levels of his first few years in the majors, at plus-6 runs (BIS) and plus-2 runs (UZR).
2. Bryce Harper, OF
Like many analysts, I firmly believe that Bryce Harper has the talent to be a perennial MVP candidate and coast into Cooperstown 20 years from now. If you pay Bryce Harper as if he is a perennial MVP candidate rather than a player who can be, you're risking a lot of dollars.
The Bryce Harper of 2015 was a truly amazing player, a dominating hitter who any pitcher ought to hate to face in pretty much any situation. That's also the only time he was ever an MVP candidate and remains the only season of his career in which he was both healthy and playing at a superstar level.
That being said, I'd still be willing to talk a gigantic contract, but if things get aggressively north of $300 million, as they could given the number of large-market teams bouncing back from luxury tax-imposed frugality, how far can you really justify a star with a big "if" on his résumé? Is 10 years of Harper necessarily the best thing for your team when that same money might get you several of the best pitchers in free agency this year?
That's not to say Harper is doomed to be a disappointment, but when you're investing $300 million in a player, you can't pretend there's no downside. This risk is what's causing ZiPS to rank Harper behind Machado.
3. Clayton Kershaw, LHP (signed extension with Dodgers)
Kershaw ended up not taking the opt-out with the Dodgers, essentially signing a one-year extension on the two years he had left on his deal. While he has a long history for the Dodgers and it was in the team's interest to retain him, there are certainly some red flags in Kershaw's recent past.
Kershaw's relatively poor performance in the playoffs are certainly concerning for a team trying to win a World Series, but in terms of predictive value, they don't really mean all that much; David Price was far from the first player with an unimpressive playoff history to suddenly shine.
While there have been no Tommy John surgeries for Kershaw, the fact is that he has missed some time due to injury in four of the past five seasons, starting only 30 games or pitching 200 innings in a single year (2015). Back problems aren't easily resolved in the long term either, even if they don't keep him off the field for entire years at a time.
It also can't be overlooked that Kershaw's results don't match his previous years. His 3.19 FIP was the highest since his rookie year and he lost nearly 20 percent of his strikeout rate from 2017, that year itself being a 10 percent drop from 2015's level. He has also lost three miles per hour off his fastball since that season.
And hitters are noticing. Going from a 69 percent to a 79 percent contact rate is nearly a sea change. Essentially, a third of the pitches that would have been missed by batters in 2015 connected with the bat in 2018.
4. Patrick Corbin, RHP
Corbin had a phenomenal 2018, with a 3.15 ERA and an even better 2.47 FIP, and a step forward from eight strikeouts per game to 11, an improvement similar to the one Max Scherzer made in Detroit right before he became a perennial Cy Young contender.
Of qualifying pitchers (so not counting relievers), Corbin was the second-hardest pitcher to make contact with in 2018, behind only Blake Snell. The problem is that this isn't a guarantee of being able to do it in the future. Sonny Gray and Dan Straily were in the top 15 in 2017. Francisco Liriano was sixth in 2016 and led baseball in 2015. James Shields was sixth in 2016.
Now, Corbin is better than all of them, but there is downside for a pitcher with a relatively short history of domination.
5. Dallas Keuchel, LHP
Like Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Keuchel has seen his strikeout rate decline. Even more worrisome is that Keuchel isn't declining from the level of Kershaw's stratosphere. Where his ability to change speeds and the movement of his slider are what propelled Keuchel to ace status, both his change and slider were below-average pitches in 2017. This necessitated at times an over-reliance on the cutter, now his best pitch, which got him into trouble at times in 2018.
6. Yasmani Grandal, C
Grandal certainly is a better defensive catcher than he showed in a few instances in the 2018 playoffs, obviously magnified because of the high-leverage nature of postseason baseball.
The question around Grandal is just how much he can be trusted behind the plate. With the Dodgers, he has had an OPS+ of 113 from 2015 to 2018 and while that's a solid level of offense, the value comes in large part because he can play catcher. If a team signing him to a four-year contract can't trust Grandal at catcher, they've essentially signed a league-average first baseman entering his 30s, a formula for many a disappointing deal.
7. Josh Donaldson, 3B
Can Donaldson stay healthy? Can he hit at his 2015-2017 level? Is he going to be able to stay at third base? Given his age, Donaldson may not be as interested in a pillow deal as someone five years younger, so if a team has to offer a multiyear contract to bring in Donaldson, the high upside comes with three serious questions. An answer of "no" to any of them could destroy the team's value in the deal.
8. A.J. Pollock, OF
Pollock is a hard player to pin down given his history of injuries, some being freak occurrences rather than the more typical breaking down of body parts. Healthy Pollock has given us one magical season, in 2015.
It's easy to say that injuries have ended the expectation of Pollock as a star, but the fact remains that before he injured his thumb, an injury that kept him out for a month and a half, Pollock was hitting .293/.349/.620 and a key part of Arizona's early-season surge. After his return, on the other hand, he hit only .236/.297/.404, a stark difference. But that early-season performance is a hard temptation when you're a contending team but can't afford to be playing with $200-300 million deals.
9. Charlie Morton, RHP
Charlie Morton is one of the most fascinating pitchers I've ever watched, simply because of his highly unusual career path. How often do you see a pitcher who was a soft-tossing prospect slowly gain velocity on his fastball, ending up at 95-97 mph in his mid-30s? I can't even think of anyone comparable; it's usually the opposite.
But that doesn't worry me as much as the injury history and age. Morton turns 35 in November and while pitchers don't really have an aging curve the way hitters do, there is a significant decline in production once you start talking about 36- to 38-year-olds.
But the way Morton's career has gone, he'll reach 100 mph at 37, and hit 30 homers at 39.
10. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
Eovaldi was a frustrating pitcher with both the Marlins and Yankees, a pitcher who somehow could throw a triple-digit fastball but struggled to strike out hitters at even a league-average rate. Eovaldi has become a better pitcher and I was certainly on Team Eovaldi during the 18-inning marathon during the World Series, but even with the Red Sox and Rays in 2018, batters made contact with him at a rate higher than the league average. Eovaldi is a better pitcher than he was, but I don't think he's a sure thing.
Not to mention he has had two Tommy John surgeries.