During the first two installments of this preview series, we looked at how the Boston Red Sox match up with two potential American League Championship Series opponents: the Indians and the Astros.
Obviously, that was a little presumptuous, because the Red Sox have to win a playoff round to set up either of those showdowns. That means, of course, that barring a miracle that somehow gets the Rays or the Mariners into the playoffs, the Red Sox will have to get past either their ancient rival, the New York Yankees, or the AL's surprise team, the Oakland Athletics.
With the Red Sox and Yankees playing a three-game set in New York, let's see how an AL Division Series between these two old combatants stacks up. Some comments on the Red Sox are repeated or slightly altered from the earlier installments, if they still apply.
Between now and then
The Red Sox are going to be the AL East champs and are almost as certain to enter the postseason as the top overall seed, both in the AL bracket and in a potential World Series appearance. Boston has already a higher win total than any National League team can possibly get to. That said, Boston's regular-season work is not done.
As we know, New York is in a neck-and-neck battle with Oakland for the top wild-card slot and the home-field advantage that designation carries with it for the coin-flip game on Oct. 3. For the Yankees, that means the difference between leaving after their season-ending series at Fenway Park and flying across the country to play the A's, or simply hopping down to New York. If it's the former scenario, and New York survives the A's, the Yankees would again crisscross the nation to begin the ALDS in Boston. The A's finish the season in Southern California, so they are looking at a more friendly travel outlook one way or another.
It's probably a small thing from a probability standpoint, but every advantage you can get, you might as well get. And it would be an advantage for the Red Sox to force the Yankees into those two long plane rides.
Boston's stars have plenty left to play for in terms of individual goals. Mookie Betts is the AL MVP front-runner, and J.D. Martinez is alive in that chase as well. Martinez also still has a shot at the Triple Crown. And now that Chris Sale is back from the disabled list, he's got a couple of more chances to add to what is already a solid case for his first Cy Young Award.
The Yankees are playing for that top wild-card seed, but perhaps just as important is their quest to regain some momentum after an injury-ravaged second half that has sidetracked New York's anticipated return to dominance. It has been more of a gradual slowing down than a collapse. At the All-Star break, the Yankees were on pace to win 106 games and post a run differential of plus-223. They are now on pace to win 99 games and finish at plus-170.
The problem has mostly been on the run-prevention side, and the Yanks are running out of time to right that ship. At the break, New York was on pace to finish 120 runs above average on offense; it is at 110 now. However, the pitching-and-defense departments were on pace to be 103 runs better than average, a figure that has dropped all the way to 60. That's a bad formula for taking on a Red Sox team that leads the big leagues in runs.
History
Red Sox versus Yankees is one of the premier rivalries in sports, and you have to admit that's true whether or not you root for one of the teams. For most of their respective histories, this played out in the form of pennant races, though they are also forever linked by Boston's decision after the 1919 season to sell Babe Ruth to the Yankees.
Finally, in 1978, Boston and New York squared off in a post-regular-season encounter at Fenway Park, the contest now known as the Bucky Dent game, that launched the Yankees to a second straight World Series title.
During the wild-card era, the Red Sox and Yankees have met three times. The Yankees beat Boston in five games in the 1999 ALCS, then again in seven games in the 2003 ALCS. New York won the decisive game in the latter season on an 11th-inning home run hit by current Yankees manager Aaron Boone, off of Boston's Tim Wakefield.
Finally, as most of you know, the Red Sox finally got over their historical hump against the Yankees in 2004, overcoming a 3-0 deficit in the ALCS en route to their first championship since 1918. The Red Sox have added two more titles since then, to the Yankees' one.
The favorite
These percentages are based on my power rankings, which currently see the Red Sox as a 104-win team and the Yankees as a 97-win team. Using those numbers as inputs, I plugged them into the log5 tool at FanGraphs to kick out this win probability: Boston has a 61 percent chance to win this matchup in a five-game series.
Star power
According to my Awards Index, which ranks every player's 2018 performance, Boston has three players in the top 15. Betts ranks as the top overall player, followed by Martinez (No. 9) and Sale (No. 14). They are joined by Xander Bogaerts (No. 29) and Andrew Benintendi in the top 30. Boston has seven players in the top 100.
The Yankees actually have more top-100 players, with eight. However, they don't have any players in elite tiers, and even that understates the difference in star power between these teams. That's because New York's top-ranked player (Aaron Judge, No. 33) has been out with a wrist injury and just returned to the Yankees' lineup Tuesday. New York's second-best player, Luis Severino, has been sliding throughout the second half of the season.
Based on 2018 results, Boston has a decisive edge in star power.
Picking the roster
Because the division series round is best-of-five, AL teams have the option of carrying an extra bench player and going with 11-man pitching staffs. Last year, the Red Sox did just that in their series against the Astros, but the Yankees carried 12 pitchers in their matchup with the Indians. Boston and New York had different managers then, so it's hard to say how much of a guide any of this is. Boston manager Alex Cora was part of the Houston coaching staff, and the Astros went with 11 pitchers against Boston.
Cora's rotation will be headed up by Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello, with Eduardo Rodriguez likely serving as the No. 4 starter. The Boston bullpen could include a couple of excellent multi-inning options in Nathan Eovaldi, along with righty Hector Velazquez. The sure bets for the roster appear to be ace closer Craig Kimbrel, along with Joe Kelly, Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes. It will also be interesting to see if Cora finds a role for knuckleballer Steven Wright. Emerging righty Ryan Brasier should be part of the mix as well.
Choosing 13 position players looked like a straightforward process for Cora in the previous installments, an exercise made even more clear when Dustin Pedroia was declared out for the season. Now that we're likely looking for a 14th position player, it gets even easier. Before, it appeared Cora would have to leave off a third catcher (Blake Swihart) or an extra infielder (likely Brock Holt). With 14 position players, he gets to keep them both. Swihart, who has solid sprint speed and is one of the few Red Sox with an above-average baserunning score at FanGraphs, has the added benefit of being a serviceable pinch runner.
Despite his recent struggles, Severino seems a sure bet for the Yankees' postseason rotation, along with Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. The fourth pitcher could be CC Sabathia -- who has been getting lit up lately -- Lance Lynn -- who has not -- or even disappointing righty Sonny Gray. Gray has been OK as a reliever, so we'll drop him for now, leaving us to pick between Sabathia and Lynn.
In terms of recent results, Lynn wins, because you've got to pick somebody. He has a 5.52 ERA in his three September starts. That's not pretty, but it's still a lot better than Sabathia's 9.28 mark. Since the All-Star Game, it's about even, with Lynn (4.40) a little ahead of Sabathia (4.50). The answer to this riddle could be decided over the final few days of the regular season. Neither Sabathia nor Lynn is scheduled to start this week against Boston.
The guess here: If Sabathia shows any sign of an uptick, he'll get the nod. This is a guy who has started 22 postseason games in his career and gave up just one run in two starts in the 2017 ALCS against the Astros. He's never made a regular-season relief appearance and has come out of the bullpen just once in the playoffs. Lynn, on the other hand, has made 17 career playoff relief appearances, all for St. Louis.
The question for Boone and his bosses will be if they want to carry a 12th pitcher as a hedge against continuing knee trouble for Aroldis Chapman, who is due to be activated from the disabled list this week. If not, then you're likely looking at a bullpen headed up Chapman, Zach Britton, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder and David Robertson. Either Lynn or Gray could stick as a long man, perhaps both, if New York goes with 12 pitchers. Hard-throwing Tommy Kahnle could still figure into this mix as well.
As for the position players, that situation was clarified for New York with the big news of Judge's return Tuesday night. That gives him 13 games to prove he will be healthy enough to perform in the postseason. With Judge back in the fold, I see 16 viable candidates for New York's 14 position player slots, assuming the Yanks don't keep a 12th pitcher.
The easiest cuts appear to be first baseman Greg Bird, who just hasn't hit, and shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria. The way that Luke Voit has mashed since the Yankees acquired him probably seals Bird's fate. As for Hechevarria, he's a good defender, but if the Yankees need a second shortstop, they can slide Gleyber Torres over, or use utility guy Tyler Wade. Wade hasn't hit this season, but he's one of New York's fastest players, can play several positions and has been Boone's favorite choice as a pinch runner.
Game 1 starters
In the prior installments, I went with the assumption that both teams would be able to line up their No. 1 starters for the first game of the ALCS, though there was no certainty that this would happen. Here it's more clear-cut because we're in the division-series round. We know Boston can go with its top starter. New York will burn its top choice in the wild-card game, unless Boone is willing to get creative by bullpenning that day (which is a bold strategy I'd like to see some wild-card manager try someday).
Sale remains the no-brainer choice for Boston, and that doesn't really require much explanation.
The recent performance of Tanaka makes him the likely pick over Severino for the wild-card game. The caveat to that would be if, over his last couple of regular-season starts, Severino seems to find his early-season stride. Otherwise, Tanaka seems like a safe bet. The question then becomes whether Severino has even pitched himself out of a Game 1 start in the LDS. Happ has certainly outperformed him of late.
Also this: Since 2013, Happ has a 2.96 ERA at Fenway Park over eight starts. Severino is at 4.75 in six outings, including five starts. Everything points to Happ getting the Game 1 call.
The setting
Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Yankees have gone just 8-18 at Fenway. They have struggled on both sides of the ball. New York's .680 OPS in Boston during that time frame ranks 20th among 25 teams to have played there. The Yankees' ERA during that stretch is 5.15. On the other hand, Boston has struggled almost as much at Yankee Stadium, going 9-17. Boston's .652 OPS in the Bronx ranks just 18th, and its ERA is just 5.25.
Home-field advantage doesn't generally play out in stark terms, but it is the case that these teams are more comfortable playing each other on familiar turf. The Red Sox get the edge because they get the extra home game. But in probabilistic terms, this is more anecdotal than it is statistically meaningful.
Game strategies
The two first-year managers have gone about things somewhat differently this season. The biggest dissimilarity is in the steals department. Cora's Red Sox have been much more active on the basepaths in terms of steal attempts, ranking second overall. New York rarely attempts to steal, ranking 26th. They are roughly even in terms of efficiency on those theft tries. Both teams are near the bottom in sacrifice attempts, but the Red Sox have been much more successful on their tries than the Yankees have.
Another difference is that Cora has been largely indifferent to gaining the platoon advantage, especially when it comes to a bullpen mostly devoid of lefties. Boone has been average in this regard. Both managers tend to eschew mid-inning pitching changes, ranking in the bottom three in reliever outings of less than three outs.
New York shifts more often on defense and, according to defensive runs saved (DRS), only five teams have saved more runs with that strategy. Boston ranks 21st in shifts and 14th in DRS with the scheme. Finally, Boone appears to have a better video person: With a 72 percent success rate, only wily veterans Bruce Bochy and Ned Yost have been more successful in terms of replay challenges.
Game 2, 3 starters
Despite his struggles at Fenway, Severino seems the likely Game 2 starter for Boone. However, with the travel day after that, Boone could bring back Tanaka on normal rest for Game 3. Boston would pit Price against Severino in Game 2, then Porcello against Tanaka in Game 3.
Quick hooks
Bullpen depth was supposed to be New York's strength this season, and it could still work out that way if Chapman is himself. Having Gray available for a long-relief role could end up being a good option, though that's not how Yankees general manager Brian Cashman might have drawn it up in the offseason. And, of course, Green is a dynamic multi-inning relief option.
As mentioned before, Velazquez will make for a nice long man for Cora, as would Wright, if he makes the roster. Eovaldi's track record out of the bullpen is limited, but his already nasty stuff would be interesting in a multi-inning relief role.
The two starters most likely to be limited to two times through the order are probably New York's Tanaka and Boston's Porcello. Tanaka's pitch quality (as measured by Statcast's xwOBA metric) ranks in just the 11th percentile the third time through the order. Porcello is in the 26th percentile. Also, Sabathia, at this stage of his career, seldom works deep.
Late-game matchups
For Boston, it's all about getting the ball to Kimbrel, one of the game's best-ever late relievers. According to Baseball-Reference.com, the position players currently on the Yankees have a collective .422 OPS against Kimbrel in 82 plate appearances. Nobody has more than two hits off him, though Judge's one hit was a home run. Kimbrel's strikeout rate against the group is 49 percent.
With Britton now in the mix, Boone has the option to play a little more situationally, though, as mentioned, both managers prefer to let relievers work full innings. If everybody is at full strength, Boone can start handing over the games as early as the fifth inning, with some order of Britton, Betances, Green and Robertson to set up Chapman. That is very much what Cashman had in mind, and it's a scenario that would have any sensible manager on the other side a little anxious.
Setting the shift
As mentioned, Boone's shifts have been highly effective. Sandy Leon, Mitch Moreland and Jackie Bradley Jr. are all strong candidates for the shift against New York, as they are for all teams. According to Statcast data, Benintendi is shifted against about a fifth of the time but has a .392 wOBA in those spots, so maybe that's not such a great idea.
For the Yankees, their most frequently shifted hitter is Bird, which won't matter if he's not on the postseason roster. Among regulars, the most shifted hitter is Gary Sanchez, who, per Statcast, has a .342 wOBA against specialty defenses.
What to do about Game 4?
The fourth game is where the rotations would get interesting. The Red Sox would almost certainly stick with Rodriguez. Sale, working on three days' rest, would be an outside possibility if Boston is in dire straits. Even then, Sale would more likely be a piggyback option if Rodriguez needs one, and if Boston is facing elimination.
For the Yankees, it's a choice between Sabathia (or Lynn, or Gray) or bringing back Happ on three days' rest, something he's never done at the big league level. The ideal for Boone would be to not face this decision, either because the Yankees sweep Boston in three or Sabathia (or Lynn, or Gray) pitches so well the next two weeks that he's comfortable starting them in a potential Game 4. That would leave Happ on five days' rest to go in a Game 5. Boston, if Sale isn't used in Game 4, would have a similar scenario for a fifth game.
Intangibles and experience
Both teams made the playoffs last season, with the Yankees getting the benefit of one extra round. Giancarlo Stanton, in his first year as an ex-Marlin, has never appeared in the postseason. Martinez, in his first year with Boston, appeared in October last year with Arizona. The teams are roughly equal in terms of team age weighted for playing time, so I don't see an edge either way on the rosters.
If there is an edge in this department, maybe it's in the dugout, where Cora is fresh off of helping the Astros win the World Series, while Boone was in the broadcast booth. Or maybe Boone gets the edge because of that media perspective. Either way, it's hard to see why collective experience would decide this matchup.
The intangible you look at might simply be fatigue, and not just because New York had to play the wild-card round. The Red Sox have been rolling for months now and have had plenty of time to get healthy and get everything lined up for October. The Yankees, because of injuries, are scrambling just to get their preferred roster up and running before the playoffs are upon us.
Shortcomings to be exposed
The Red Sox's collective walk rate from their pitching staff is mediocre. In fact, it would be the highest of the five teams likely to comprise the AL playoff bracket. Meanwhile, New York walks more often than any team in the league -- 9.9 percent of plate appearances -- and is the AL's most prevalent three-true-outcomes squad. Could a rash of walks and three-run homers do in the Red Sox?
Maybe, but it's nothing to get in a snit about. For one thing, despite the middling walk rate, only the Rays have been stingier than Boston with the home run in the AL. Also, the pitchers most responsible for the walk rate aren't likely to be on the playoff roster. Boston's overall walk rate is 8.1 percent. The combined rate of the 11 pitchers I predict to be on a Red Sox LDS roster is 7.6 percent. Doesn't sound like much, but it's the difference between ranking 13th in the majors and ranking fifth.
The winner
It'll be fun, we know that. We haven't had a Yankees-Red Sox postseason tussle since that memorable 2004 showdown, and it feels like we're overdue. In terms of baseline talent, it's close. In fact, my projection-based roster rating actually ranks New York one slot higher than Boston (fourth vs. fifth).
Still, for about four months now, Boston has clearly outplayed the Yankees. Injuries have played into it, sure, but those injury problems haven't fully resolved themselves for New York. Unless Severino can get rolling, the pitching matchups don't look favorable for the Yankees, either. This feels like a Boston year. I'll say Red Sox in four.