We kicked off our annual too-early-preview series a couple of weeks ago by examining what a potential Indians-Red Sox AL Championship Series would look like. Now, with Houston and Boston giving us another possible postseason glimpse (8 p.m. ET on ESPN), let's break down a potential October clash between these two American League titans.
Between now and then
In my current simulations, the Red Sox and Astros are both heavy favorites to win their respective divisions. Boston has been winning the East in each of the 10,000 runs through the remaining schedule I do each day. It has been that way for Boston for a couple of weeks, but Houston's story is a little different.
The Astros have owned the top power rating in my system nearly the entire season, going all the way back to the hot stove season. That's not a crazy stance for my system to take -- the defending champs are dripping with in-their-prime talent. Boston overtook Houston for a three-week stretch in August, but the Astros have resumed their reign over the majors.
That optimistic assessment of Houston's roster is why even though the Astros' edge over Oakland in the AL West is only 3½ games, they currently carry a 94 percent shot at the division crown, and a 100 percent lock on a playoff spot. Obviously, the Astros would much prefer the division title and would like to wrap that race up early enough to get some rest for a roster that has dealt with a lot of injuries.
With that in mind, it would seem that in this series and in the days to come, Houston has more at stake than Boston on the field. The Red Sox haven't clinched anything, but that will happen soon enough. In the meantime, Boston is just trying to make sure recently ailing starters Chris Sale, David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez are in postseason form when the calendar flips to October.
The Astros are on pace to win 100-plus games for the second straight season, so it's not like they've been cruising through the season. But that narrow advantage in the division will keep A.J. Hinch's club on edge. One bad week, then suddenly they could be looking down the barrel of a one-game visit to Yankee Stadium in the coin-flip game.
Boston's stars have plenty left to play for as well in terms of individual goals. Mookie Betts is the AL MVP front-runner, and J.D. Martinez is alive in that chase as well. Martinez also still has a shot at the Triple Crown. Finally, assuming Sale comes back sharp and gets three or four more starts, he's in great position to win his first Cy Young Award.
History
Houston's 3-1 win in last year's AL Division Series was the first postseason matchup between the Astros and Red Sox. The Astros, of course, spent more than a half-century in the National League and the clubs never met in the World Series during that time. In fact, barring a drastic future realignment, there will never be an Astros-Red Sox World Series. We all have to learn to live with that. Anyway, Houston had the home-field edge in that series, which will almost certainly not be the case this time around.
As for interpersonal relationships, Red Sox manager Alex Cora was Hinch's bench coach last season, so that's a tight connection. The Astros don't allow their coaches to talk to the media, and when Cora first emerged in the visiting dugout in West Palm Beach, Florida, before a spring game between the Red Sox and Astros, he quipped, "Finally, I get to talk to the Houston media!"
Houston star Alex Bregman has been best friends with Boston reserve Blake Swihart going back to their amateur days. They are both from New Mexico -- Bregman ranks fourth all time in homers by a native New Mexican. (He has a long way to go to catch Ralph Kiner.) Swihart was actually born in Texas, otherwise his six career homers would rank ninth on the New Mexico list.
And, finally, Betts and Houston's George Springer are the most prominent users of the ax-handle bat. In fact, it was Betts' success with the slanty-knobbed timber that led Springer to try it.
The favorite
These percentages are based on my power rankings, which currently see the Astros as a 111-win team and Boston as a 105-win team. Yeah, it's a high-powered matchup. By that power rating formula, the Astros and Red Sox currently occupy an elite tier of two. Using those numbers as inputs, I plugged them into the log5 tool at Fangraphs.com to kick out this win probability: Houston has a 59.5 percent chance to win this matchup in a seven-game series, with the the Astros' edge in power rating being enough to overcome the Red Sox's home advantage.
Star power
The Astros were probably baseball's most star-studded team last season, and in terms of talent plus track record, they might still hold that crown. Injuries have dulled the production of some of their elite players during 2018, however, with Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and Springer all falling victim to the injury bug. Bregman is the only Houston player who ranks in the top 10 of my Awards Index.
In fact, Bregman ranks second -- one spot behind Betts. Martinez joins Betts in the top 10. Sale ranks 13th and Andrew Benintendi is 23rd, giving Boston four top-25 players. Bregman is the only Astro ranked that high. Houston has four top-50 players and six in the top 100. Boston has five top-50 guys and seven in the top 100.
Based on 2018, at least, the Red Sox hold the edge in star power.
Picking the roster
Most of the Red Sox portion of this section remains intact from the Indians-Red Sox installment of the series:
Boston's last appearance in the ALCS was 2013, under Terry Francona, so that is hardly a guide for how Cora might set up his pitching staff for a seven-game series. Last season, when the Red Sox played the Astros in the division series, ex-manager John Farrell went with 11 pitchers and a long bench. Farrell is no longer around, and his replacement is in his first season as a big league manager. When Cora was the bench coach for Houston last season; the Astros went with 12 pitchers. The Red Sox would likely do the same.
For Cora, choosing his 13 position players should be a pretty straight forward process, unless Dustin Pedroia should happen to get healthy by October. That's not expected to happen, a situation that has not changed since the Indians-Red Sox installment. However, Pedroia is still working to get back.
Cora's rotation will be headed up by Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello, assuming all injury hurdles are cleared by the postseason. One thing that has changed: The lefty Rodriguez, now that he's back from his sprained ankle and throwing well, is the heavy favorite to be Cora's fourth starter. That would bump hard-throwing righty starter Nathan Eovaldi to the bullpen.
Boston's bullpen could include of a couple of excellent multi-inning options in Eovaldi, along with righty Hector Velazquez. The sure bets for the roster appear to be ace closer Craig Kimbrel, along with Joe Kelly, Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes. It will also be interesting to see if Cora finds a role for knuckleballer Steven Wright, who might begin a rehab assignment this week. Emerging righty Ryan Brasier should be part of the mix as well.
For a team that mostly brought its championship core back this season, the Astros will have some interesting decisions to make when setting up their roster. Mostly this is because of an abundance of talented players having good seasons, so it'll be a pleasant puzzle for Hinch and GM Jeff Luhnow to put together. As mentioned, Houston went with a 13-hitters/12-pitchers mix last season, and we'll assume that's the case again this time around.
Let's start with the staff. Hinch has already suggested that when Lance McCullers Jr. returns from his forearm strain that it'll be as a reliever. That would solve one problem for Houston: The Astros have five outstanding starting pitchers. The problem is that Charlie Morton was also recently on the shelf with some shoulder discomfort. If he's healthy, fine. You go with Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Gerrit Cole and Morton and feel pretty darn good about it. If Morton's shoulder gets worse, then it'll be interesting to see if the Astros try to stretch out McCullers, or even pull a shocker and turn to flamethrowing rookie Josh James.
We'll assume that McCullers joins a Houston bullpen that has been really good this season. The Astros' bullpen ERA is the best in the majors on the season, and the group has been particularly strong of late. The Astros' relief ERA since the beginning of August is nearly a half-run better than any other team. Houston won baseball's bullpen of the month award for August. You can expect to see the key performers from that stretch -- Hector Rondon, Ryan Pressly, Brad Peacock, Will Harris, Roberto Osuna, Collin McHugh -- in October, one would think. The group has been lights-out.
In adding McCullers to the mix, the Astros add a tremendous long-relief option who last October authored one of the most memorable bullpen performances in Houston history. That came in the ALCS, when he earned a four-inning save in Game 7 against the Yankees, allowing zero runs, one hit and striking out six.
If you're keeping count, you'll note that I listed six relievers, the four starters and McCullers -- a total of 11, which leaves one spot. So what happens to Joe Smith, a groundball pitcher who has been terrific? Or Chris Devenski, a stalwart over the past few seasons who is having a down year? What about lefty Tony Sipp?
Somewhere in this mix will be an unhappy pitcher or two, even if Houston decides to go with 13 hurlers. But if they did that, it would further complicate the problem of putting together a bench. Assuming that's a four-man group, it'll likely be a choice between defensive ace Jake Marisnick and a third catcher, probably Max Stassi. Stassi has played well enough to be on the postseason roster overall, but he has tailed off and the Astros have veterans Brian McCann and Martin Maldonado at the position.
They also have Evan Gattis as an emergency option behind the plate, with the emphasis there on "emergency." Gattis' role as Houston's everyday DH has been usurped by Tyler White, which limits Gattis' roster utility. However, he's a dangerous pinch-hitting option, more so than Stassi and the weak-hitting Mariscnick, so he's probably safe. Probably.
Game 1 starters
Again: The rotation would be affected by how the division series unfolded for each team. The assumption here is that both teams are able to get their rotations lined up, with their top choice going in Game 1, etc. Neither team is looking at a walkover matchup in their first series, so it might be unlikely that this really happens.
Sale is the no-brainer choice for Boston. That's only slightly less true for Verlander, who should get the nod for Houston. Both teams have other pitchers who, on many other clubs, would be viable Game 1 options, but Sale and Verlander are both members of baseball's elite ace tier and are two of the top five starters in the big leagues.
Sale has just one regular-season start against Houston the last couple of years, a loss on June 1 this season in which he allowed four runs. By game score -- 49, or a tick below average -- it was Sale's second-worst start of the season. He also pitched twice against the Astros in last year's ALDS, losing both times with an ERA of 8.38. None of that will deter Cora from sending Sale to the mound as often as he can.
As for Verlander, he is 5-5 in his career against Boston with a 2.89 ERA over 18 starts. At Fenway Park, his ERA is 3.51 over 10 starts. Over the last two seasons, Verlander has three no decisions against Boston with a 2.50 ERA. He beat Boston twice in last year's division series, the second time earning the winning decision with a 2⅔-inning performance out of the bullpen in the series clincher. Sale earned the loss in that game, also in relief.
All of this, of course, is just history. Don't read too much into it.
The setting
This weekend marks Houston's only trip to Boston this season. The Astros split a four-game series at home against the Red Sox just after Memorial Day. There's really nothing to see here. Houston did win three of four at Fenway Park during the 2017 regular season, then took the ALDS clincher on Boston's home field.
Game strategies
Boston and Houston have both been efficient base-stealing teams this season, but the Red Sox are much more prolific, ranking second to the Indians in overall steals. Both teams have been about average in limiting steals.
Overall, according to BSR (Fangraphs' baserunning metric), Boston ranks just 25th even though the Sox have been so good in the steals department. Houston ranks 21st, despite being one of baseball's most athletic teams. The Astros are exceedingly aggressive on the bases and thus rank near the bottom in terms of losing runners on the bags. Boston's 26 outfield assists rank fifth in the AL, with 20 of those coming from Benintendi (11) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (nine).
In theory, the Red Sox should have a tremendous edge in late-inning platoon advantage. Most of Houston's young offensive stars hit from the right-side of the plate, so the Astros rank 27th in owning the platoon advantage while hitting. Boston ranks last in platoon advantage with its pitching staff because its bullpen is almost entirely staffed by righties. So that means we should see mostly righty-vs.-righty encounters when the Astros hit in late-inning spots. Nevertheless, I'm not sure that means all that much, because Houston's hitters are just that good. So too, for that matter, are Boston's relievers.
A couple of other notes: Cora and Hinch both tend to let their strong rotations work deep, by 2018 standards, anyway. The Astros lead the majors in average pitch count from their starters. Neither manager has tended to use his relievers in specialized roles. That's especially true for Cora, who ranks 28th in using relievers for less than three outs. Finally, Hinch has deployed pinch hitters over three times more frequently this season than Cora.
Game 2, 3 starters
We covered this in the Indians-Red Sox installment, but Price has been better at Fenway than elsewhere, and he's Boston's second-best starter. So he's the guy you want in Game 2, with Porcello in Game 3. He has always been a road guy. You can make an argument for Rodriguez going in Game 3, but I like him as a bullpen option if one of the first three games goes long, more so than Porcello.
For Houston, I could see Hinch going with Cole, Morton and Keuchel in any order. Lately, the rotation order has been Verlander-Cole-Morton-Keuchel. Maybe it's as simple as that.
Keuchel has generally been better in Houston than on the road, though he has actually been slightly better in away games this season. In his first season as an Astro, Cole has a sub-3.00 ERA both at home and away. Morton also doesn't have much of home-road split the last couple of seasons. None of them have much in the way of a track record at Fenway Park, though Keuchel has struggled there in two regular-season outings.
In the end, there's nothing obvious that would spur Hinch to juggle his rotation, so I'd expect him to retain that Verlander-Cole-Morton-Keuchel order. But it would also not be surprising to seem him flip Morton and Keuchel. Keuchel has been strong since the All-Star break, while Morton could be used in relief if needed early in the series -- a role he filled so ably last fall.
Quick hooks
Hinch showed a willingness to not just pull his starters early during last year's postseason but to piggyback them with other starters. This was how he navigated the Astros to a title despite having a shaky back-of-the-bullpen situation. This year, Houston should enter the playoffs with a more stable bullpen mix, but Hinch can always revert to his old tricks if needed.
For Boston, this is a repeat: Velazquez will make for a nice long man for Cora, as would Wright, it he makes the roster. Rodriguez has virtually no experience working out of the bullpen, and Eovaldi's track record there is limited, but they are possibilities if either is left out of the rotation.
Setting the shift
The Astros shift far more often than Boston does, although according to Baseball Info Solutions, the Red Sox have actually saved more runs with nontraditional alignments. Benintendi, Moreland and Bradley are all strong candidates for the shift against Houston. For the Astros, their most frequently shifted hitter is Reddick, although Bregman ranks high on the list among righty hitters. For that matter, so does Boston's Martinez.
Late-game matchups
For Boston, it's all about getting the ball to Kimbrel, one of the game's best-ever late relievers. According to baseball-reference.com, the position players currently on the Astros entered the weekend with a collective .484 OPS against Kimbrel in a collective 45 plate appearance. Nobody has more than one hit off him, though McCann's one hit was a home run. Kimbrel's strikeout rate against the group is 47 percent.
I've already mentioned the righty-heavy matchups we'll see in the late innings when Houston is at the plate. The Astros also feature a righty-dominant pen. Boston has marginally more lefty-hitting options than Houston has in Josh Reddick, McCann and Tony Kemp. Among the Red Sox's threats from the left side is a young star in Benintendi, along with Bradley, who has improved drastically at the plate over the season's second half. And don't forget about Rafael Devers and Mitch Moreland.
This does make you wonder if that forces Hinch and Luhnow's hand with their roster construction and gets Sipp into the mix.
What to do about Game 4?
Both teams have strong four-man groups, so there is likely little reason to bring back a Game 1 starter on short rest. Even later in the series, I think you'd be more likely to see Verlander or Sale used in long relief rather than to start a game on short rest.
Intangibles and experience
The Astros are the defending champs. The Red Sox last won the title in 2013, which doesn't seem that long ago. Yet the most prominent player from that team who is still around is Pedroia, who was shut down for the season last week after undergoing surgery. Still, all of Boston's core players gained postseason experience last season, including Martinez, who went to the playoffs with Arizona. I don't see a clear advantage here. These are two teams with plenty of swagger.
Shortcomings to be exposed
Boston had some roster question marks earlier this season even while compiling baseball's best record, but I'm satisfied all those problem areas have been addressed, with the possible exception of offense from its catchers. If that's your biggest problem, you're in pretty good shape. These are two extremely deep teams, and even though they both have areas of platoon imbalance, that is more a product of how good their players are than it is any sort of inherent flaw.
The winner
This is hard! I'll go with the Astros in seven, simply because they are the defending champs, and I can find no objective reason why I'd pick any team in the majors to beat them. Although if it weren't for Houston, I'd be able to make the same statement about the Red Sox. (I still like a healthy Indians rotation against them, however.) The only thing that could sway my pick between now and the ALCS, if Houston and Boston both end up there, is how the starting pitchers are performing by October. We need to see if Sale is as dominant as he was before his DL stays. We also need to see how Morton is doing.
Whatever happens, I know this: If we get a Boston-Houston ALCS, it'll be a powerhouse of a matchup.