Six weeks remain in the 2018 regular season, then all trackers roll back to zero and the wonderful anarchy of the postseason begins. How will this October look? We don't know. Much is left to be settled between now and the end of September. That's great for all of us, because with so many races still unsettled, we're guaranteed a wild ride in the weeks to come.
At the same time, we're at the point where we can start to peek ahead at possible playoff matchups, especially in the American League, where five clubs currently hold 85 percent or better odds to get into the bracket. That means that in the junior circuit, there are only so many ways the postseason can take shape and only so many remaining regular-season matchups that can reasonably be called "a possible playoff preview."
One of those possible preview series begins Monday night at Fenway Park, where the Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox will go toe-to-toe for four games. Both teams are strongly in command of their division races, so chances are that if Cleveland and Boston do meet in October, it will be in the American League Championship Series.
To tease this possible matchup, let's step into a version of a way-too-early postseason preview by taking the unfolding of issues as they would likely occur.
Between now and then
These teams still need to clinch their divisions, but with the Indians and Red Sox both holding leads at or approaching double digits, it's a matter of when, not if. Still, for both clubs, that's the first item on the to-do list. Boston currently has a 96.6 percent chance of checking that box; Cleveland is at 99.7. It's close to a done deal in each case.
Boston has owned the AL's best record for a couple of months now and the division rival New York Yankees currently are second in the East, albeit with a 9½-game deficit. So Boston's chances of locking down the league's No. 1 seed are exceedingly high.
For Cleveland, a No. 3 seed seems probable, but there is intrigue remaining on that front. The Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics are separated by just one game in the AL West, but if you haven't noticed, the Indians are just three games behind the Astros/Athletics for the second seed. That's important -- the difference between owning home-field advantage during the LDS and not.
In my latest run of simulations, the Indians are finishing with an average of 95.1 wins. Houston is at 99.5 and Oakland at 96.1. So the Indians' most likely outcome is a 3-seed, meaning they'd have to go on the road against the West champion to start the LDS. However, Cleveland's remaining schedule is collectively that of a 73-win team, by far the easiest remaining docket in the majors. Cleveland won't catch Boston for the top seed, but the No. 2 slot is very much in play. Houston's remaining schedule ranks 18th and Oakland's is 13th, so the A's are at the disadvantage, and both have a tougher road than Cleveland.
Health is the other major piece of business standing in the way of an Indians-Red Sox ALCS.
Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer is on the shelf after suffering a hairline fracture in his right leg when he was nailed by a Jose Abreu line drive in Chicago. The initial timeline for his return is encouraging in terms of postseason availability, and Bauer has pledged to keep his arm sharp while the leg recovers. Still, given the way Bauer was rolling at the time of his injury, the Indians will be relieved if he can get back before the end of the season and demonstrate his pre-injury form.
Boston's big injury story, of course, is the ailing shoulder of Chris Sale. If for some reason Sale isn't himself by the time the postseason rolls around, the entire Red Sox outlook undergoes a seismic disruption. But Boston has six weeks to get Sale ready for October, and that's their top priority for the rest of the season.
Cleveland acquired center fielder Leonys Martin to fill its hole in center field, but Martin nearly lost his life in a frightening battle with a bacterial infection. It's unclear if he'll be able to return to baseball action this season, and unclear if the Indians have a decent in-house solution if he can't.
Also, starting Boston third baseman Rafael Devers is on the shelf with a hamstring problem.
History
The franchises have met in the postseason five times: 1995, 1998, 1999, 2007 and 2016. Cleveland has won three of the five series. The 2007 matchup was in the ALCS, won by Boston in seven games. In the most recent matchup -- 2016 -- the Indians swept the Red Sox in the LDS on their way to the World Series. The Indians and Red Sox also met in 1948 in a one-game playoff to determine the AL pennant, although that technically was an extension of the regular season. Cleveland won 8-3.
The favorite
These percentages are based on my power rankings, which currently see the Red Sox as a 109-win team and Cleveland as a 100-win team. Using those numbers as inputs, I plugged them into the log5 tool at FanGraphs.com to kick out this win probability: Boston has a 64.8 percent chance to win this matchup.
Picking the roster
Neither team played in the ALCS last season. In 2016, Terry Francona went with 12 pitchers for that season's LCS matchup against Toronto. That's also the number of hurlers he selected for Cleveland's LDS pairing last season against the Yankees. That's pretty standard these days, especially for a seven-game series, so you'd expect a similar roster this time around. However, the Indians' rotation has shown the ability to work deep and Cleveland's retooled bullpen has a good core of proven relievers, so maybe Francona would consider going with an extra position player. But probably not.
Boston's last appearance in the ALCS was 2013, under Francona, so that is hardly a guide. Last season, when the Red Sox played the Astros in the ALDS, ex-manager John Farrell went with 11 pitchers and a long bench. Farrell is no longer around, and his replacement, Alex Cora, is in his first season as a big league manager. Cora was the bench coach for Houston last season; the Astros went with 12 pitchers. The Red Sox would likely do the same.
Assuming Martin is out, Francona would have to choose among Greg Allen, who can run and play center field but is producing at a below-replacement level, Lonnie Chisenhall, a corner player who is currently on the DL, and utility players Yandy Diaz and Erik Gonzalez to fill his last two position player spots.
As for pitchers, Francona's rotation will almost certainly consist of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Bauer and Mike Clevinger, with the latter possibly being available for long relief early in the series. His bullpen core will be Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, Brad Hand and Adam Cimber.
For Cora, choosing his 13 position players should be a pretty straightforward process, unless Dustin Pedroia happens to get healthy by October. That's not expected to happen.
Cora's rotation will be headed up by Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello. The fourth guy could be a matter of much debate between Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez, who is currently out on a rehab assignment as he recovers from an ankle injury. It may come down to who Cora sees as being the best option to bounce to the bullpen, a conversation that some want Price to be a part of.
Boston's bullpen could include of a couple of excellent multi-inning options in whoever doesn't make the rotation, along with righty Hector Velazquez. The sure bets for the roster appear to be ace closer Craig Kimbrel, along with Joe Kelly, Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes. It will also be interesting to see if Cora finds a role for knuckleballer Steven Wright, who might begin a rehab assignment this week.
Game 1 starters
The rotation would obviously be affected by how the LDS series unfolded. The assumption here is that both teams are able to get their rotations lined up with their top choice going in Game 1, etc. Neither team is looking at a walkover matchup in their first series, so it might be unlikely that this really happens.
Sale is the clear top choice for Boston, and he has struggled against the Indians in recent seasons. Over his past four starts against Cleveland, Sale is 1-2 with a 10.80 ERA. He hasn't faced Cleveland this season. Nevertheless, there is no reason in the world why Cora wouldn't start a healthy Sale in Game 1 of the series.
Kluber seems like a logical pick for Francona to go first, though Bauer has outperformed him this season. Still, Kluber has a longer track record, especially in the postseason.
The setting
Monday will mark the first game between the Red Sox and Indians this season. After this week, they'll play three games in Cleveland from Sept. 21-23. Over the past two seasons, the Red Sox have gone 8-5 against Cleveland during the regular season. Boston has gone 4-2 at Fenway Park and 4-3 at Progressive Field. However, as mentioned, the Indians swept their matchup during the 2016 LDS, with the first two wins coming at home and the clincher at Fenway.
Game strategies
Boston and Cleveland have been the top two base-stealing teams in the AL this season, with both logging 98 thefts through Saturday. Boston (23) has been caught three fewer times. However, the Red Sox have allowed just 39 steals, second to the Angels in the league. Cleveland's 61 steals allowed rank in the middle of the pack.
Don't expect much bunting. Cleveland has just 18 sacrifices this season. Meanwhile, under Cora, the Red Sox have laid down just five sacrifice bunts. Only Toronto (three) has fewer.
Both managers allow their starters to go longer than average, but Francona's rotation leads all of baseball with an average of 6 1/3 innings per start. Only the Astros, under A.J. Hinch, have allowed their starters to work over 100 pitches more often than Francona. His starters are good and durable, and Francona has confidence in them.
Both teams have had stable bullpens, even if the performance (in Cleveland's case) has been up and down. Both teams rank near the bottom in total relief games. For Francona, that is a function of letting his starters work deep. For Cora, it's a matter of not swapping out relievers to gain a platoon advantage that often, which has been at least in part a product of a relief staff dominated by right-handers. The Red Sox have just 50 relief innings this season from lefties, and that group has posted a composite 5.19 ERA.
Boston has had just 70 relief outings this season of fewer than three outs, second-fewest in the majors behind the Yankees (54).
Game 2, 3 starters
Cleveland's second and third starters will likely be Carrasco and Bauer, while Boston will probably select Price and Porcello. But which pitchers will go in Game 2 at Fenway, and which in Game 3 at Progressive Field?
Francona will have a tough choice. Carrasco has always been a better road pitcher than home, with a 4.44 lifetime ERA at Progressive Field and 3.04 on the road. That's held up this season, as well. Carrasco has a 4.35 ERA at home, and 2.55 on the road. It's his fifth straight season with a sub-3.00 road ERA. However, his career ERA at Fenway is 7.07 over 14 innings.
Meanwhile, Bauer doesn't have much of a home-road split in terms of career ERA. This season, he's at 1.87 at home and 2.56 on the road. But at Fenway, he's at 8.10 in 13 1/3 innings. Also, Bauer has simply been better than Carrasco this season, which is why he could contend for the Game 1 assignment against Kluber. Chances are he'd go in Game 2, but it's not an easy call.
For Cora, it seems like a more clear-cut pick. Price has always been better at home than on the road, a pattern that has intensified since he joined the Red Sox. His career ERA at Fenway is 3.14 in a large sample of innings. Porcello has always been better on the road, and that's been the case in Boston. While Price has a better ERA at Progressive Field (2.27), Porcello has a nifty 2.84 mark over 73 innings in that venue. So we'd likely see Price at Fenway and Porcello at Progressive.
Quick hooks
If the Indians can get Andrew Miller back to his 2016 and 2017 form by the postseason, they'll be able to leverage him in multiple-inning outings as they've done in the past. As mentioned, Clevinger, a possible Game 4 starter, could also be used in a long role early in the series. It will be interesting to see if Francona also keeps a starter who gets bumped from the postseason rotation, such as rookie Shane Bieber or veteran Josh Tomlin.
Velazquez will make for a nice long man for Cora, as would Wright, if he makes the roster. Rodriguez has virtually no experience working out of the bullpen, and Eovaldi's track record there is limited, but they are possibilities if either is left out of the rotation.
Late-game matchups
For Boston, it's all about getting the ball to Kimbrel, one of game's best-ever late relievers. No one on the Cleveland roster has much of a track record against him. Edwin Encarnacion is 2-for-9 with two singles and a walk against Kimbrel; no one else has faced him more than three times. However, Francisco Lindor is 2-for-2 against Kimbrel with a double and a home run. Something to keep in mind.
Francona has three prime options to close out wins in Miller, Hand and Allen. He will not hesitate to use any of them in high-leverage spots before the ninth inning.
As mentioned, the Red Sox have a righty-dominant makeup on their relief staff, with swing man Brian Johnson possibly being the lone lefty, if he makes the roster. Veteran Drew Pomeranz also could fill such a role, if he performs better between now and the playoffs, but he's far from a lefty-killer.
Cleveland has three lefty-hitting regulars in Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley, in addition to switch-hitters Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Melky Cabrera. Boston's top-performing relievers against left-handed hitting have been righties -- Kelly and intriguing journeyman Ryan Brasier.
Setting the shift
Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in frequency of shifts, and both are effective when they do it. According the Baseball Info Solutions data, the Indians have saved 17 runs with the alignment and the Red Sox are at 14. Both are top-10 figures.
Cleveland's Yonder Alonso, along with Boston's Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland, all rank in the top 30 in terms of most times hitting against a shift, according to FanGraphs research.
What to do about Game 4?
Francona has been known to bring back Kluber on short rest, but the rise of Clevinger likely makes that unnecessary. For Boston, it's more of a consideration to bring back Sale if the Red Sox face a must-win situation. Otherwise, it'll be whoever wins the No. 4 spot -- likely Rodriguez or Eovaldi -- and both would be pitching with a short leash.
Intangibles and experience
Hard to see any advantage here for either team. For that matter, other than the Athletics, this will be a postseason full of teams with players who have been there, done that.
Shortcomings to be exposed
The Red Sox haven't been a very good baserunning team, with a minus-3.2 BSR on FanGraphs.com that ranks 20th in the majors. Runs could be at a premium against the deep Indians staff, so they can't really afford to lose guys on the basepaths. The Indians, meanwhile, lead the majors with a plus-11.3 BSR.
The Indians also have a statistical edge in defense: plus-9 defensive runs saved versus minus-35 for Boston.
Only five teams have gotten a larger percentage of their runs from homers than Cleveland. Boston's staff ranks fifth in limiting homers.
It all comes down to this
Any granular analysis of a matchup almost invariably overlooks the superstars in a series. You take them for granted. They are the stars. The nuances in the matchup are to be found elsewhere. But make no mistake: You'd be hard-pressed to find a playoff matchup more laden with stars than a Boston-Cleveland showdown would be.
You want MVP candidates? You have four viable ones on these teams in Mookie Betts, Ramirez, J.D. Martinez and Lindor. Want Cy Young contenders? How about Sale, Kluber and Bauer?
There would be some considerable star power in this matchup and if all of them play up to their regular-season levels, it could be a matchup for the ages.
The winner
The probability spit out by the log5 method above, which heavily favored Boston, was based on my power rating. Boston's large edge in run differential and recent momentum play into that. However, there's a component in that rating that might be a bigger factor in sizing up these teams: roster rating.
That rating is based more on track record than 2018 results, though the latter folds into the former as the season goes along. Still, by that measure, the Red Sox have a true talent level of a 96-win team. So do the Indians, with Boston owning a slight edge if you push out to the decimal point.
These are evenly matched teams. Boston would have the home-field edge, and that matters. But Cleveland has a pitching staff that allows Francona to ride hot starters, or go all-out with bullpen strategies. He can play it as it comes. This, I think, is Cleveland's biggest advantage.
If the series goes seven, Cora will likely have to turn to Porcello, while Francona would have an ace-level starter ready to go, whether it's Bauer or Carrasco. Cora might be able to piggyback Porcello with Sale on short rest, but I like the way this sets up for Francona.
It is not easy to pick against a Boston team that might enter the postseason with 110-plus wins. But if the series were to go long, which it should, I'm taking the Indians in 7.