Owners refusing to spend money on free agents has been an ongoing theme this winter. Teams apparently don't want to be saddled with large contracts for players in their 30s, or when a player's performance starts to fall off. However, teams do have a reasonable alternative: paying young players more. They don't do so out of the kindness of their hearts. Signing young players to contract extensions that cover multiple free-agent years has proved to provide massive financial bargains for teams.
For the young players themselves, they are signing deals that probably will handicap their future earnings. There is an argument to be made that the union should do anything it can to prevent these sort of deals (and I've made it), as Mike Trout, Jose Altuve and Paul Goldschmidt would all be free agents this winter without having long since signed their team-friendly extensions. Collectively, players would be better off without these contracts, but an individual player needs to do what is best for himself and his family. Teams have an opportunity in the current system, and they take advantage.
In exchange for that guaranteed payday, the team holds on to the players for a few extra prime years at below-market rates. Even just one or two extra prime years can help shape the future of a franchise. Extensions help keep the Los Angeles Angels and Arizona Diamondbacks in contention thanks to Trout and Goldschmidt. And deals with Chris Sale and Jose Quintana helped the Chicago White Sox accelerate their rebuild and acquire some of the very best prospects in baseball and fixtures for their future in Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech.
If teams want to avoid paying players in their 30s, they are going to continue to make commitments to more players in their early 20s. Below are some prime extension candidates, including a trio of young Yankees and even one player who has yet to reach the majors.
The reigning American League home run champ isn't even eligible for arbitration for another two seasons, and he won't hit free agency until after he turns 30 years old. Those factors would provide enough of a deterrent to trying to extend a player like Judge. On the other hand, there are so very few players like Judge that a deal would make sense for the Yankees.
Kris Bryant and Mookie Betts just received more than $10 million in their first cracks at arbitration. In two years, Judge will be in position to ask for even more and set himself up to earn more than $50 million in arbitration before he even gets to free agency. For Judge, those guarantees are still a couple of years away. He might be able to resist an extension, as endorsement money makes him secure enough to wait for arbitration. But if the Yankees offered $75 million in guarantees to buy even one season of Judge's free-agent eligibility -- through 2023 -- it might be worth exploring for both sides.
Luis Severino, Yankees
Judge wasn't the only Yankee breakout last season. Severino has spent more time in the majors than the Yankees' right fielder, and he will reach arbitration after this season. Pitchers are riskier, and teams sometimes try to wait to strike a good deal; but Severino pitched like an ace last season at just 23 years old. A repeat of last season will give Severino a nice chunk of change and remove long-term security concerns that could entice him to sign a deal right now. It has been three years since Corey Kluber gave up three free-agent seasons for a guarantee just shy of $40 million. Kluber was coming off a Cy Young season, but something north of $30 million might entice Severino into giving up a couple of free-agent seasons in 2023 and 2024.
Gary Sanchez, Yankees
Like Judge, Sanchez is still two years away from arbitration. That might make him priority No. 3 for the Yankees in terms of an extension, but it also might make him the player most likely to sign one if a good deal were put on the table. Sanchez is a 25-year-old catcher who hits like a really good first baseman. Even if he gets moved off catcher at some point in the future, he should still hit enough to be very valuable. Last season, at a similar stage in his career, Stephen Piscotty signed away two free-agent seasons for around $35 million in guarantees. Push that number up a bit higher for Sanchez and we might see a deal.
One caveat to all these Yankees deals is the competitive balance tax. Any contract signed will need to be an extension that starts in 2019 so as not to push this season's payroll any higher.
Ronald Acuna, Atlanta Braves
Acuna is just 20 years old, he's the best prospect in baseball and he's ready to play in the big leagues right now. Signing him to an extension before he even takes a plate appearance would be unusual, but it would avoid the controversy of holding him down in the minors for a couple of weeks to gain an extra year of service time that we saw with Kris Bryant a few years ago. Astros prospect Jonathan Singleton got a $10 million guarantee a few years ago, but Singleton was never the prospect that Acuna is now. The closest comparison to Acuna getting this sort of deal now was Evan Longoria signing a $17.5 million deal a week into the season 10 years ago. Double Acuna's guarantee over six years and include three options above eight figures and Acuna -- who received just $100,000 for his signing bonus in 2014 -- might help jump-start the future for the Braves on Opening Day.
The Twins' center fielder began delivering on some of the promise that made him one of the very best prospects in baseball just a few years ago. After a dreadful couple of weeks to start the season, Buxton was an above-average hitter from late April through the end of the season and was 30 percent better than average in the second half. Combine that progress with his great defense and the 24-year-old could be ready to make the leap into national stardom this season. He will be arbitration-eligible next season, so if the Twins don't make a compelling offer now, they risk losing him as a free agent in a few years. A guarantee north of $30 million might get the Twins a couple of additional prime years from their best young player since Joe Mauer.
Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox
Everybody's pick for rookie of the year last season didn't exactly disappoint, putting up a 20/20 season as well as a double-digit walk rate, but he was more average than a star last year. He sped to the majors after just 657 minor league plate appearances, and the 23-year-old probably has much better days ahead of him. He's not eligible for arbitration for two more years, and he should still be doing fine financially with his $3.6 million signing bonus from 2015, but the Red Sox might want to be aggressive with their potential homegrown star, perhaps learning a lesson from seeing Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts get closer to free agency.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
When a team uses a top-10 draft pick on a college right-hander, the result it hopes for is Aaron Nola. After a little over a year in the minors, Nola was an average starter in the big leagues. Injuries shortened his 2016 season, but even in 20 starts he was very good, striking out 25 percent of batters, walking only 6 percent and managing to keep the ball in the park despite pitching his home games in Philadelphia. Nola missed some time last year because of a back injury, but he still managed to be one of the National League's best pitchers, producing a 4.3 fWAR season. There's some injury risk to Nola, but as he's just a year away from arbitration, the Phillies should try to lock up their best player -- yes, he's better than Rhys Hoskins -- long term. Something above $30 million might get the conversation started.
There are some other players worth mentioning, but extensions might be too unrealistic. Francisco Lindor spurned a deal last season that might have been worth $100 million. Carlos Correa's agent said in April that a multiyear deal simply wasn't going to happen.
As for a few other potential extension candidates: Correa's fellow Astro and World Series champion Alex Bregman might be in a similar spot as Benintendi, but Bregman also signed for a healthy bonus -- $5.9 million -- just a few years ago. ... Jon Gray's case after his performance for the Colorado Rockies so far is a lot like that of Nola. ... The Milwaukee Brewers might strike decent agreements with Zach Davies, Domingo Santana or Travis Shaw, but those players aren't quite on the same level as the players mentioned above. ... Michael Fulmer is just a year from arbitration, but the Detroit Tigers might be better off trading him without attaching a guaranteed contract to his five remaining years of control.