Let's get right to the point: You want to know the future. Some of you might have different reasons for wanting to know, but the ability to see a slice of the future would be empowering. That's why you're here. You want to know some baseball players who are about to improve.
Imagine what you could do with that knowledge! I find this all rather intoxicating. It's an annual pursuit -- the search for players on the verge of something special. You might not need me to say this, but telling the future is hard. All you can do is try in good faith.
What you'll find are 10 young players poised to reach the next level. Don't read too much into the order; it's alphabetical. These players are "up-and-comers" instead of "breakouts." The difference between the two is blurry. Last season, the Yankees' Aaron Judge was a breakout; the Cardinals' Tommy Pham and Dodgers' Chris Taylor were breakouts. Someone like Houston's Alex Bregman didn't exactly break out, but he could have been considered an up-and-comer who simply established himself over a full season. All young breakouts are up-and-comers, but not all up-and-comers are breakouts, if you know what I mean. These are guys I think could become quality regulars in 2018.
C Austin Barnes, Los Angeles Dodgers: Barnes is a great example of an up-and-comer who doesn't need to break out. Last year, there were 41 catchers who batted at least 250 times. Barnes easily ranked first among them in wRC+, beating out the Yankees' Gary Sanchez. Barnes has also ranked as one of baseball's most effective pitch-framers and, beyond that, he's also relatively quick. While he's not a classic power threat, Barnes makes contact and drew walks at a higher rate than Chicago's Kris Bryant and Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt.
It would seem as if Barnes is too good to be true. The only catch is that he ranked 47th among backstops in innings caught. Due to the presence of Yasmani Grandal and his own limited track record, Barnes hasn't had the chance to prove himself as a starter. He sure appears to be the No. 1 now, though. Barnes doesn't need to change a thing. All he has to do is stay himself, over a greater amount of playing time.
OF Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox: To a certain degree, Benintendi was disappointing last season. He entered as Baseball America's No. 1 overall prospect, and then he was almost immediately overshadowed by Judge, on the way to having a roughly league-average year. It's not that Benintendi was ever bad; he just didn't follow up his stronger initial cup of coffee.
I'll give him a break because he was 22 years old, and few 22-year-olds can manage an above-average contact rate in the majors while also drawing walks at a 10 percent rate. Benintendi has the discipline and the bat-to-ball skills, and he even has the inclination to put the ball in the air. I think 2018 will be time for some skill consolidation, and Benintendi should look more like the player fans eagerly thought he'd be a year ago.
RHP Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds: Much like Barnes, Castillo doesn't need to improve, per se. He just needs more exposure, more playing time and more of a track record for people to believe that, yes, the Cincinnati Reds really do have a young ace in the making.
Out of every starting pitcher who threw at least 50 innings, only the Yankees' Luis Severino threw a harder average fastball. Castillo pulled off the cool trick of ranking seventh out of 189 starters in ground ball rate while having the same strikeout rate as Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson and free agent Yu Darvish. Castillo even introduced a sinker on the fly in late July, after which his ERA was 2.65. Castillo gets righties out and he gets lefties out. He throws strikes, misses bats and generates grounders. All he has to do is stay healthy. He's about ready to be the Reds' next star.
3B Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics: As Chapman went into the All-Star break, he had just five hits over his first 11 major league games. He'd struck out 20 times in 42 opportunities. You might say that he cleared his head. The second-half A's played .500 baseball, driven by a powerful offense in which Chapman played a central role. After the break, Chapman slugged .516, and out of all American League position players, only six guys were better by fWAR. Chapman had a slightly more valuable second half than Judge, Sanchez and Cleveland's Jose Ramirez.
The bat is interesting enough, with power to offset the strikeouts. But while Chapman was a prospect, he was known for his elite defense. And in the majors last year, Chapman ranked 12th among third basemen in innings -- yet he ranked first in defensive runs saved (DRS) and first in Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). Chapman is another up-and-comer who doesn't need to break out. He's an elite defender who can hit home runs. He's a huge reason why the A's have a real chance to play meaningful baseball.
RHP Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians: As noted, Luis Castillo just struck out 27 percent of his opponents, as did Darvish and Nelson. As a starter, Clevinger also struck out 27 percent of his opponents, and Cleveland's Corey Kluber was the only starter in the American League to finish with a lower ERA. When batters attempted to swing at a Clevinger pitch, they made contact just under 71 percent of the time, roughly tying him with Boston's Chris Sale.
So Clevinger doesn't need to break out; he just needs to last a year in the starting five. He keeps every single pitch he throws down, and while his fastball is fine, his weapon is a tandem of lethal breaking pitches. Without any improvement, Clevinger is a good No. 3 starter. With just a little more polish and command, he's another All-Star in an unfairly good Cleveland rotation.
LHP Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers still haven't decided whether Hader will be a starter or a reliever long-term. My hunch is he'll relieve in 2018, and I didn't come into this looking to select guys in the bullpen. But as you might have noticed, the Brewers intend to gun for the playoffs, and if they're as good as they think they'll be, you should get used to seeing Hader make high-leverage appearances.
Hader has always missed bats. Last year in Triple-A, his walk rate was 14 percent, and in his first 18 big league games, his walk rate was 18 percent. But over his final 17 appearances, he brought that number down to 4 percent; in those 22⅓ innings, Hader racked up three walks and 36 strikeouts. With legitimately improved control, Hader would be poised to be one of the game's most valuable relievers. He has a deceptive, crossfire delivery, and no pitcher in the majors in 2017 allowed a lower contact rate on pitches in the strike zone -- a sign of dominance. Even in an era with deeper bullpens than ever, Hader should be someone to fear.
SS Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks: I don't mean to be self-promotional, but if you want to read more about Marte, I wrote him up as my favorite breakout pick in December on FanGraphs. There, you can find my extended reasoning. Here, you can find a summation. First, Marte is a shortstop who runs like the devil. Second, though he's but 24 years old, he just tripled his big league walk rate. By the end of 2017, Marte was looking like a reasonably disciplined contact hitter, one who had also begun to learn how to sting the ball with authority -- that after the Diamondbacks had him work on some mechanical tweaks in Triple-A.
In this home-run-heavy era, you don't need the power you used to in order to knock the ball over the fence. The power Marte does have is more than sufficient, and the Diamondbacks are so excited about what lies ahead that Marte has been more or less untouchable in trade negotiations. It's time for it all to come together.
OF Eddie Rosario, Minnesota Twins: Let's consider a metric called BB-K%, which works as a measure of discipline using players' strikeout and walk rates. In 2015, Rosario ranked in the sixth percentile among hitters in BB-K%; in 2016, he ranked in the fourth percentile. But in 2017, he ranked in the 45th percentile. I know that's still technically worse than average, but it's also a dramatic improvement for someone who had previously been woefully overaggressive. Rosario was one of many Twins showing a better understanding of the strike zone.
Furthermore, compare first-half Rosario and second-half Rosario. In the first half, Rosario slugged .458 with a 48 percent ground ball rate. In the second half, he raised those numbers to .558 and 38 percent. Rosario has been learning to wait and learning to lift. The arrows are all pointing in the proper direction.
LHP Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays: Snell is another player who just needs to build off what he did down the stretch. Through 11 starts last season, Snell had a 4.98 ERA with 37 walks and 51 strikeouts, but over his remaining 13 starts, Snell's ERA dropped to 3.31, and he registered 22 walks and 68 strikeouts as the control problems that had plagued him for so long seemed to disappear. His pitches were also a tick or two faster.
Explanations for turnarounds like this can be complex, but it's interesting that Snell's improvement dates back to a repositioning of his feet on the mound. He also started to throw more on a direct line to home, and, as far as off-field matters go, teammates suggested that Snell was beginning to show greater focus. Call it maturity, or call it development, but stretch-run Blake Snell was the best he has been. He should be the latest success for the Tampa Bay pitcher factory.
RHP Luke Weaver, St. Louis Cardinals: Something I like to do is evaluate young players by their brief stretches of peak performance. That way, I feel like I get some understanding of ceiling. So let's consider Weaver: Between Aug. 23 and Sept. 20, he made six starts, throwing 36⅓ innings and 608 pitches. The results: seven runs, four walks and 49 strikeouts. Weaver was almost comically overwhelming before tailing off over two final appearances.
While we certainly can't ignore the rough outings, Weaver's hot streak left an impression. Over the course of a month, he looked like one of the best starters around. He did so while having very little big league experience. Now that he has more playing time under his belt, I'm confident that only more good days lie ahead. And, sometimes, particularly great days, too.
My honorable mention would be Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo. As much as I like him, I'm not sure he has a clear path to everyday playing time in the season ahead. Makes him someone to keep in mind for next year's edition of this article.