In choosing a methodology for the ZiPS ranking of the top 25 players under 25, I asked myself (and the algorithms) the question:
What would each of these young players get if they hit free agency after this season?
Below are the top 25 in projected contracts, compared to Keith Law's overall rankings. As you would guess, there's some similarity, but also some clear differences in man vs. machine.
The contract figures are quite large. I'd say literally a ton of money, but that would actually be a lie. Two thousand pounds of hundred-dollar bills amounts to only about $90 million, a figure ZiPS projects all 25 players to exceed in this scenario.
If the figures sound high to you, you're correct. That's a feature, not a bug. Only a small percentage of these players will in fact get contracts anywhere near this value as a young star's most valuable years are typically those that are under team control. Take away this team control and the benefits go directly to a player. Getting to free agency in the early prime years is part of the reason Alex Rodriguez's first long-term contract was so massive and why Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, both due to hit the market after the 2018 season at the age of 26, will land the same.
Don't quite believe me? Just look at the prices that unfettered free agents land. Yasmany Tomas and Rusney Castillo both cost around $70 million, and were far riskier than any of the players on the list below. It's not that the Red Sox and Diamondbacks collectively lost their minds with the contract figures, but simply because that's what prime talent, even unproven talent, would cost when teams get into bidding. The notion that some first-round draft pick wants $5 million isn't, on a philosophical level, an extravagant demand. Teams would happily pay tenfold the amount for that same player as a free agent.
The missing
Four players on Keith's list missed the ZiPS 25 entirely. Dansby Swanson would have been ranked 24th but even if you think his poor start is a fluke -- and ZiPS is still confident about his future -- the fact is there are nearly 150 plate appearances of .500 OPS performance on his résumé. ZiPS still wants to see Julio Urias throw a full season of innings before ranking the Dodgers prospect higher. Two Rangers miss the list. Joey Gallo misses because ZiPS is still unsure just how productive he'll be when he doesn't have a .350 isolated power and Nomar Mazara because the computer still sees his upside as more speculative than demonstrated.
25. Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
Projected worth: 6 years, $92 million
Law's ranking: Unranked
Baez's on-base percentage will never be a plus in his game. He is and always will be too free of a swinger to be able to avoid getting more than his fair share of outs. The improvement in his defense over the past year in addition to his significant power upside is enough for him to have serious value if he hit the market.
24. Taijuan Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected worth: 6 years, $93 million
Law's ranking: Unranked
Yes, it still wouldn't hurt to lose one more walk a game, but Walker is keeping the ball down better than he ever has before and sports a FIP of 3.40 in Arizona in 2017, with ZiPS projecting him to now finish at 2.7 WAR for the season. He seems like a veteran, but he's still at the age at which many pitchers are breaking into the majors and there's room to grow. Even when he's pitching well now, batters aren't missing pitches at the level you'd expect from Walker's stuff.
23. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Projected worth: 6 years, $95 million
Law's ranking: Unranked
Ignore that 2016 ERA, given the unsustainable nature of a .334 BABIP, which is as bad as position players being forced into pitching. In his sophomore season, Nola bumped the strikeout rate by almost a third, bringing it almost to 10 batters a game and as a pitcher with the eighth-highest ground-ball rate (minimum 100 IPs) in 2016, Nola demonstrated he's better suited than most to deal with the league's home run explosion. ZiPS doesn't see a star ceiling for Nola, but does see him as about the safest No. 2 pitcher there is among young pitchers.
22. Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
Projected worth: 6 years, $114 million
Law's ranking: No. 24
ZiPS doesn't project a crazy high ceiling for Odor, never really believing he will put up good on-base percentages. But a 25-homer second baseman who can do more than fake the position has a lot of value. He may not truly be the 33-homer guy he was last year, but he doesn't really have to be. His 2015 season with fewer homers featured a slightly higher OPS+, 107 to 105.
21. Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins
Projected worth: 6 years, $122 million
Law's ranking: No. 21
Sano is one player who has moved up from where he would rank if this exercise were done preseason. He showed solid power in his 2016 season, but ZiPS wanted to see more, because he's a guy who really needs to be slugging .500 or .550, not .450, to be a star. He won't keep the .297/.439/.667 given the .434 BABIP, but ZiPS thinks he can maintain .340, and at .240/.340/.500 a year or so, he's a real plus.
20. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
Projected worth: 8 years, $135 million
Law's ranking: No. 8
ZiPS has been a fan of Buxton for a long time, regularly ranking him as one of the top future values in baseball. While his glove is looking even better than the +10 Defensive Runs Saved per year ZiPS projected -- minor league defensive data, even the best available, isn't great -- there are increasing questions about his bat. As impressive as he was at the end of 2016, he's just having too many long periods of no offense in the majors.
19. Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox
Projected worth: 6 years, $140 million
Law's ranking: unranked
This ranking is assuming that Rodon's biceps bursitis, which has kept him on the shelf, isn't something more sinister. He cut his walk rate by more than a third in 2016 in his sophomore season, but until he finally has that big breakout, ZiPS won't put him higher.
18. Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees
Projected worth: 7 years, $147 million
Law's ranking: No. 14
Young catchers tend to develop in odd fashion. Many young catchers doing well on prospect lists regress considerably, even early in their careers, in the minors or the majors, such as Ben Petrick, Ben Davis and Javier Valentin. Sanchez is the opposite, developing relatively late. That he has done it in the majors is a big deal when projecting the future and given catcher uncertainty.
17. Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers
Projected worth: 8 years, $148 million
Law's ranking: No. 23
Believe it or not, there were people that were angry that the Tigers threw in the towel in 2015 at the trade deadline when five games behind a wild-card spot. I know because some of those people were super-angry at me on social media when the Tigers pulled the trigger and traded David Price and Yoenis Cespedes, the latter fetching Fulmer. Fulmer is now the most valuable asset in the franchise -- Miggy is still a star but he's owed a quarter-billion for his declining years -- and I don't hear from those people much anymore.
16. Manuel Margot, San Diego Padres
Projected worth: 7 years, $155 million
Law's ranking: No. 16
Margot's WAR isn't there yet, but given his pedigree, ZiPS is a little too worried about short-term ordinary defensive numbers. He'll always be underrated thanks to playing in Petco Park, still a decent pitchers' park, on a team with a long rebuild. There's a lot of Devon White in Margot.
15. Michael Conforto, New York Mets
Projected worth: 7 years, $160 million
Law's ranking: No. 20
Those who insisted that he suddenly forgot how to play baseball in June of last year are at least starting to think about what condiment goes well on crow. Conforto's .422/.483/.727 line after demotion last year strongly suggests the Mets stopped playing him just in time for his slump to end and he has kept right on hitting, with a nearly 1.100 OPS as we inch toward June. While Jay Bruce has overperformed expectations so far, the Mets still need to find Conforto full-time at-bats when the whole outfield is healthy.
14. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Projected worth: 8 years, $161 million
Law's ranking: No. 13
One of the few Astros hitters not having a good April, Bregman has played at his normal level in recent weeks, and he has his numbers back up toward respectability. ZiPS has long been a fan of Bregman, projecting him in a virtual tie with Nolan Arenado for the third-most WAR remaining among MLB third basemen, behind only Kris Bryant and Manny Machado. Bregman will likely always hit for less power than that trio (and Josh Donaldson), but he's the youngest of the group and an extremely well-rounded player.
13. Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox
Projected worth: 8 years, $166 million
Law's ranking: No. 11
It's hard to believe but Benintendi was playing for the high-A Salem Red Sox at this time last year. A few months later, he was in the majors and playing well and in about half a season of MLB time, he's over .800 OPS, heavy on the OBP, and one of the better defensive left fielders in baseball. Carl Yastrzemski is fairly high on Benintendi's ZiPS offensive comp list (15th) and while that's by far the best player on the list, it's full of names like Rafael Palmeiro and Don Mattingly and a bunch of solid non-HOF candidates such as Wally Joyner or Shawn Green.
12. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
Projected worth: 8 years, $171 million
Law's ranking: No. 18
ZiPS never understood why Ramirez wasn't better in his first couple of years in the majors, with Ramirez having mastered Triple-A ball at just age 21. Ramirez finally broke out last year by hitting .312/.363/.462. In 2017, he's showing that line isn't a fluke, bettering it by 25 points of OPS this season. His emergence is for real and it has worked twofold: It has solved Cleveland's long-term questions at third base and made me look slightly less stupid.
11. Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
Projected worth: 8 years, $193 million
Law's ranking: No. 12
The missing power is a little strange, but I doubt the Red Sox mind as long as he's hitting .340 with a near-.400 on-base percentage to compensate. That he ranks as only the sixth shortstop on this list is a testament to the historical depth at the position rather than a slight on Bogaerts. Only three under-25 players project with at least 2,500 hits in ZiPS and Bogaerts is one of them, behind Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa.
10. Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs
Projected worth: 9 years, $202 million
Law's ranking: No. 10
I'm guessing the Cubs don't want to undo that Jeff Samardzija trade. It doesn't look like Russell is ever going to hit for a high batting average, but he's a legitimate elite-tier defender at short and remains a good 20-homer-a-year bet in his prime. That's a star, and one the Cubs should pin down sooner rather than later.
9. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
Projected worth: 9 years, $209 million
Law's ranking: No. 17
All Sanchez did was win his first ERA title in 2016 at the age of 23. What made it truly amazing is that watching Sanchez, you get the feeling that he still isn't completely developed as a pitcher. He still needs to work on punching out batters and even though he still has less-than-complete command of his wickedly sharp curve, batters look helpless. He could be a perennial Cy Young candidate in another year or two.
8. Trea Turner, Washington Nationals
Projected worth: 9 years, $207 million
Law's ranking: No. 9
I remain endlessly entertained that somehow the Washington Nationals won a trade in which the San Diego Padres acquired Wil Myers from the Tampa Bay Rays. A 2016 season with a .342/.370/.567 line and earning a spot on a crowded rookie of the year ballot (he was on mine) is probably a bit above his baseline expectation, but even assuming some regression, he's a worthy addition to baseball's ridiculous collection of young star shortstops.
7. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
Projected worth: 7 years, $217 million
Law's ranking: No. 6
In a just universe in which Mike Trout was called up to a superior league, Betts would have been an easily deserving AL MVP in 2016 at the age of 23. A Gold Glover in right, Betts was also fine in center field and looks an awful lot like a player with a batting title or two in him.
6. Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
Projected worth: 9 years, $247 million
Law's ranking: No. 7
Luckily, the loss of Thor for most of the rest of the season does not appear to be an issue that will affect him long term, though the short-term effect on the Mets is quite severe. Assuming he can stay healthy -- always a big assumption for a pitcher -- he's the best early favorite to be the defining pitcher of his generation (if we count Kershaw as in the next-older one). There's no real weakness in Syndergaard's game and even with increased injury risk from the missing time, teams would fall over themselves to make the Met ace fabulously wealthy if they could.
5. Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected worth: 9 years, $311 million
Law's ranking: No. 4
Along with Cody Bellinger and Urias, Seager is part of the Dodgers' core for the next decade or so, the type of player that teams pray to even develop once in a generation. We're at the level of player now on this list where there realistically isn't any ceiling. We're on the Hall of Fame path here.
4. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
Projected worth: 9 years, $312 million
Law's ranking: No. 2
I'm from Baltimore so I have nightmares about 2018, the season after which Machado is unleashed to the highest bidder and unlike some of the youngest names on the list, he will get a contract similar to the one I've listed above. If a team is willing to play him at shortstop full time, where he ought to have been all this time, this projection might actually underrate him.
3. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
Projected worth: 9 years, $316 million
Law's ranking: No. 1
ZiPS was a bit concerned after a steeper-than-expected regression toward the mean in 2016, in which his WAR (Baseball-reference.com) dropped from his 10.1 in 2015 to a very mortal 1.6. He has already nearly doubled that figure before we even get to the end of May, has an OPS over 1.200 and he's wiping away any residual uncertainty very quickly.
2. Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
Projected worth: 9 years, $316 million
Law's ranking: No. 5
I've written quite a bit about Lindor already, but the executive summary is: His improvement is real and he's one of the elite players of his generation.
1. Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
Projected worth: 10 years, $331 million
Law's ranking: No. 3
Finally, someone at first rather than Mike Trout. He's just 22, so expect to be tired of seeing Correa in this spot after a couple more seasons. Already putting up MVP-type performance at ages 20 and 21, he remains the best bet to be this generation's A-Rod, even if Lindor has closed that gap.
He is nearly a year younger than Lindor, and ZiPS still sees Correa with the most upside of any player in the majors. On average, the computer expects Correa to finish with 2,676 hits, 477 homers, and the fifth most wins above replacement for any shortstop in MLB history.
Who says computer projection systems are always grumpy?