The last time a team other than the Dodgers or Giants made the playoffs from the NL West was 2011, when the Diamondbacks won the division with 94 wins. In the five seasons since, the Diamondbacks, Rockies or Padres have never finished above .500. It has been an easy road for the Dodgers and Giants. Will things get tougher in 2017?
2016: 91-71, +87 run differential, lost NLCS to Cubs
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 95-67
Key moves so far: Re-signed FA Ps Kenley Jansen and Rich Hill and 3B Justin Turner; traded C Carlos Ruiz to Mariners for P Vidal Nuno; traded OF Howie Kendrick to Phillies; lost FA OF Josh Reddick.
Most franchises would be ecstatic with four straight division titles with 90-plus wins each season and two NLCS appearances, but with the highest payroll in baseball comes higher expectations, and the Dodgers' inability to reach a World Series since 1988 clouds the success of these past four seasons. The offseason has consisted of retaining three key players from last year in Jansen, Hill and Turner. That means relying on those three, plus superstar ace Clayton Kershaw and now sophomore superstar Corey Seager.
The strength of the team projects to be the starting rotation, but it's not without concerns. Only Kenta Maeda qualified for the ERA title last season, and he was gassed by the playoffs. Hill's 110 innings were his most since 2007. Kershaw has now missed time in two of the past three seasons. There's plenty of depth here with veterans like Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy, although youngsters Julio Urias and Jose De Leon will play vital roles, assuming De Leon isn't used to acquire a second baseman, such as the Minnesota Twins' Brian Dozier.
The offense was middle of the pack in 2016, ranking 11th in the NL in OBP and seventh in slugging. Much of that was the result of an MLB-worst .622 OPS against left-handed pitching. That might have been a one-season fluke -- they had a higher OPS against lefties than righties in 2015 -- but the struggles of Adrian Gonzalez (.602 OPS), Joc Pederson (.469), Turner (.640) and to a lesser extent Seager (.722 OPS) need to be fixed for the Dodgers to win a fifth straight NL West and make a deeper playoff run.
Key player: Hill. When he took the mound in 2016, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 2.12 ERA and .195 average allowed. If he can makes 30 starts, the Dodgers will have one of the best No. 2 starters in the game.
2016: 87-75, +84 run differential, lost NLDS to Cubs
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 88-74
Key moves so far: Signed FA P Mark Melancon; traded P Chris Heston to Mariners.
After losing nine games when leading heading into the ninth inning -- the average was three losses per team -- the Giants are simply hoping that a better late-game bullpen will translate into a division title. Otherwise, it's the same formula: Rely on the big three starters -- Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija each topped 200 innings, impressive considering only 15 starters did it across MLB -- and an offense that struggled in the second half (4.7 runs per game in the first, down to 4.0 in the second).
Note the drop in adjusted OPS from 2015 in these players:
Buster Posey: 133 to 112
Joe Panik: 129 to 85
Brandon Crawford: 113 to 106
Matt Duffy: 108 to 80
In addition, new center fielder Denard Span posted a mediocre 91 OPS+, less than what they got from Nori Aoki and Gregor Blanco in 2015. Duffy was traded for Matt Moore, who helped shore up the back of the rotation after Jake Peavy and Matt Cain posted ERAs on the wrong side of 5.50.
The Giants will be better in the eighth and ninth innings with Melancon, but they also need more offense and hope those starters remain durable and healthy.
Key player: Panik. The strikeout rate remained low, but his batting average fell from .312 to .239 and he eventually lost his second spot in the lineup. They need him to be a high OBP guy again.
2016: 75-87, minus-15 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 78-84
Key moves so far: Signed FA OF/1B Ian Desmond and P Mike Dunn.
We always get at least one team that climbs from a sub-.500 record to the playoffs:
2016: Red Sox
2015: Mets, Cubs, Astros, Rangers
2014: Angels, Giants
2013: Red Sox, Indians, Pirates
2012: Orioles, A's, Nationals
The Rockies will be a popular choice to do that this season, although they haven't had a winning season since 2010. The computer projections disagree, however, with FanGraphs forecasting only 78 wins. What's interesting about that is the position players are viewed as a weakness, ranking 24th in the majors in projected WAR -- while the pitching staff ranks 16th. The projections forecast significant regression from DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon; and see David Dahl as just a 0.2-WAR player over 600 PAs. Rockies fans might cite this as reasons WAR doesn't work, but the Rockies ranked just 19th in FanGraphs position player WAR in 2016 (and 15th in pitching WAR).
This suggests the path to the playoffs means the Rockies need to score even more runs, even after leading the NL in 2016 with the most they've scored since 2007. If Story can match his 2016 production over a full season, and Dahl is better than his projection, that will help. The Rockies also wasted over 1,000 PAs on terrible players -- Gerardo Parra (.271 OBP), Ryan Raburn (.309), Cristhian Adames (.304), Brandon Barnes (.250) and Ben Paulsen (.258). That's the potential value of Desmond; if they sign a first baseman and use Desmond as a super-utility guy, they won't have to use all those scrubs as much.
There's actually a lot of potential in the rotation, led by Jon Gray; just don't expect glossy numbers due to Coors Field. The bullpen also had an MLB-worst 5.13 ERA. Even in Coors Field, that's unacceptable. This is a fun team, but it's not as simple as "better pitching."
Key player: Story. Is his bat this legit? Note that he was making adjustments before going down in July because of the thumb injury, hitting .288/.367/.625 in July with eight home runs and some improvement in his strikeout rate.
2016: 69-93, minus-138 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 78-84
Key moves so far: Acquired P Taijuan Walker and SS Ketel Marte from Mariners for IF Jean Segura, OF Mitch Haniger and P Zac Curtis; signed FA P Fernando Rodney; designated C Welington Castillo for assignment; lost P Daniel Hudson; claimed OF Jeremy Hazelbaker off waivers.
OK, so everything went wrong in 2016. Here's what can go right in 2017:
1. Paul Goldschmidt, MVP!
2. Zack Greinke, Cy Young contender!
3. Robbie Ray, breakout star. Seriously, check out that strikeout rate. There's legitimate top-of-the-rotation potential here.
4. Walker, breakout star. Walker not only pitched through a foot injury that required surgery after the season but made a slight tweak in his mechanics in September and had a 2.45 ERA over his final four starts with 27 strikeouts in 25.2 innings. He's still just 24.
5. A.J. Pollock, 157 games played instead of 12.
6. David Peralta, 2015 numbers instead of injury-plagued 2016 numbers.
7. Fernando Rodney, crooked hat but not crooked numbers.
8. Jake Lamb, two great halves instead of one great half.
9. Shelby Miller, bounce-back candidate!
10. Torey Lovullo, managerial genius.
Key player: Pollock needs to stay healthy.
2016: 68-94, minus-84 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 66-96
Key moves so far: Traded C Derek Norris to Nationals for P Pedro Avila; signed FA Ps Clayton Richard and Jhoulys Chacin; lost FA OF Jon Jay.
On the bright side, the Padres aren't projected as the worst team in baseball. That's the Milwaukee Brewers. On the other hand, they just signed Richard and Chacin and made deals to acquire three Rule 5 players, including a catcher who hit .230 in low-A ball.
That's the right approach, however: Maybe one of those Class A kids will stick and provide talent for the future. Maybe Richard and/or Chacin turn into July trade bait. Give Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot a chance to play and see what they can do. See if Ryan Schimpf -- .533 slugging in 90 games -- is for real.
But a path to the playoffs? It's unlikely, of course, but maybe Schimpf, Wil Myers and Renfroe combined for 100 home runs; Margot and Travis Jankowski win Gold Gloves in the outfield; Luis Sardinas hits .315; and, umm, Luis Perdomo goes 19-7 with a 2.85 ERA.
Key player: Renfroe. The team's first-round pick in 2013 has remained a tease but did hit .306 with 30 home runs at El Paso. Still, that's El Paso and he walked only 22 times in 563 PAs. Unless the plate discipline improves, he'll be crushed at the major league level and the power potential never reached.