For the first time since 2010, the National League Central had just one team make the postseason. You might remember what happened there. It might seem easy to line up the division as the Cubs and everyone else, but two of the other four teams have reasonable paths to the playoffs.
2016: 103-58, +252 run differential, won World Series
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 95-67
Key moves so far: traded OF Jorge Soler to Royals for P Wade Davis; signed OF Jon Jay; signed P Koji Uehara; lost FA CF Dexter Fowler and P Aroldis Chapman
When Theo Epstein was hired after the 2011 season to run the club's baseball operations, his initial plan was clear: Build around young position players and fill in the pitching staff as needed. I think the plan worked. With that young foundation of 2016 NL MVP Kris Bryant; Anthony Rizzo, who was fourth in MVP voting the past two seasons; Addison Russell; Javier Baez; Kyle Schwarber; and Willson Contreras, the Cubs will be favorites not just to repeat as NL Central champs but also to repeat as World Series champs -- something an NL team hasn't accomplished since the 1975-76 Reds.
If you're looking for motivation, that's a pretty good target: The 2016 Cubs broke the franchise's 108-year title drought. The 2017 Cubs can become a legendary, all-time great team.
The FanGraphs projection has the Cubs and Dodgers as the best teams right now, with 95 wins. That's eight fewer wins than the Cubs had in 2016, with regression predicted on both offense and defense:
Offense: 4.99 runs scored per game to 4.76
Defense: 3.43 runs allowed per game to 3.97
I'm more worried about the pitching staff. It's likely that Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester both had career seasons in 2016, and all five starters made at least 29 starts. Can this team have the same good health, let alone the same results?
If there's a problem on offense, it could come from the outfield. Center field is a question mark with the loss of Fowler, and Jason Heyward has to hit or lose playing time to Ben Zobrist. The return of Schwarber will help the offense (but hurt the defense). Still, with two MVP-caliber players in Bryant and Rizzo and a strong rotation, it will take a lot for the Cubs to not win 90 games.
Key player: Jake Arrieta. After carrying a sub-2.00 ERA into late June on the heels of his amazing finish to 2015, he ran a 4.44 ERA over his final 16 starts and a 3.63 ERA in playoff starts, though he lasted six innings just once. He remained tough to hit, but bouts of wildness put too many runners on base. With a lack of depth, Arrieta needs to rediscover his fastball command to prove he's still a No. 1 starter worthy of a $100 million-plus contract as he enters free agency after 2017.
2016: 86-76, +67 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 85-77
Key moves so far: signed CF Dexter Fowler; traded P Jaime Garcia to Braves for three minor leaguers; signed P Brett Cecil; lost FA OF Matt Holliday
It was an odd season in 2016. The Cardinals missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010, even though they scored 132 more runs than they did in 2015. They also allowed 187 more runs and won 14 fewer games. Much of that blame was placed on the defense and a revolving door of positional changes throughout the season (only Stephen Piscotty started more than 106 games at the same position), but the pitching staff was all but guaranteed to regress after a high percentage of runners stranded in 2016.
Oddest of all: The Cardinals went 38-43 at home, their first losing record at home since 1999. They had won 50-plus at home the previous four seasons.
The path to the playoffs is simple here: Prevent fewer runs, and win at home. The rotation will get Lance Lynn back from Tommy John surgery, and top prospect Alex Reyes, who impressed in his 46-inning debut with 52 strikeouts and just one home run allowed, could push Michael Wacha to a bullpen role. FanGraphs projects only a slight improvement in run projection, but if Reyes is ready to make 30 starts, there could be a big improvement in the rotation.
Key player: Aledmys Diaz. He hit .300/.369/.510 and made the All-Star team while finishing fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting. He missed much of the second half with a fractured thumb, he hit .423 in April, and his defense at shortstop was questionable. If his bat is legit -- I think he can come close to his 2016 numbers, given his extra-base pop and low strikeout rates -- he'll be a star if his defense improves to even an average level.
2016: 78-83, minus-29 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 83-79
Key moves so far: re-signed FA P Ivan Nova and signed P Daniel Hudson; lost FA IF Sean Rodriguez and OF Matt Joyce; lost P Jeff Locke
The Pirates' offseason has been marked by what hasn't happened: Andrew McCutchen is still here, and attempts to trade for White Sox lefty Jose Quintana haven't come to fruition. However, even after they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2012, don't count out the Pirates. Why?
1. McCutchen can bounce back. He was just 29, and superstar hitters don't lose it overnight. Odds are that various ailments -- knee, thumb -- hindered him more than he or the Pirates let on, and that's one reason they wanted a big return for him. I'd still move him out of center field, however, where his defense was clearly a problem.
2. Gerrit Cole can bounce back. He went from 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA to 7-10 with a 3.88 ERA, and he made just 21 starts because of a triceps injury in June and elbow inflammation in September. That sounds more than a tad bit worrisome, but a healthy Cole is essential.
3. Rotation stability. Locke led the team in innings with 127 but was so bad the Pirates didn't offer him a 2017 contract. Clint Hurdle will need youngsters Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow to produce innings, Nova to prove his late-season surge (3.06 ERA in 11 starts with the Pirates) was a Ray Searage thing and not a small-sample fluke, and Chad Kuhl or Drew Hutchison to step up as the fifth starter. The Pirates were 22nd in the majors in rotation ERA and 28th in innings. Just getting five guys to make 25-plus starts will be huge.
4. Offensive depth. It hurts to lose Rodriguez and Joyce, who were excellent in part-time roles in 2016, but Josh Bell will be ready to contribute at first base or a corner outfield position, and Austin Meadows should be ready at midseason if needed. David Freese and Adam Frazier provide additional depth. This could be a sneaky top-three offense in the NL.
Key players: Cole and McCutchen
2016: 73-89, minus-62 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 63-99
Key moves so far: acquired 3B/1B Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon and P Josh Pennington from Red Sox for P Tyler Thornburg; acquired C Jett Bandy from Angels for C Martin Maldonado and P Drew Gagnon; signed 1B Eric Thames; designated 1B Chris Carter for assignment
See that projection? That's the worst in the majors -- worse even than that of the Padres. How do the Brewers get from 63 wins to 88 and the playoffs?
1. Junior Guerra, staff ace. The 31-year-old rookie, selected off waivers last offseason, posted a 2.81 ERA in 20 starts. FanGraphs actually projects him at 2.3 WAR, best on the team, so he has to be even better -- maybe a 5-WAR guy (we're up to 66 wins).
2. Eric Thames, masher. Thames comes back to the States from Korea, where he hit 124 home runs the past three seasons. The computers don't know what to make of him and project minus-1.8 WAR. Let's say he's much better than a .220/.284/.342 hitter and is worth 2.2 WAR (70 wins).
3. Domingo Santana, surprise star. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs explains why Santana is a potential breakout slugger. Hint: Exit velocity! Let's bump him from 0.6 WAR to 3.6 (73 wins).
4. Ryan Braun at 1.7 WAR? He was worth 4.4 last year. Let's add three wins here (76).
5. Jonathan Villar at 0.6 WAR? He was at 3.9 last year, playing mostly shortstop. He might move to second base, but let's say he was for real (79 wins).
6. The rest of the rotation and bullpen ... better! OK, you get the idea. The Brewers basically need everyone to perform better than their projections. Plus, they need two or three of the young players to break out. Undersized righty Zach Davies is another guy to watch.
There's certainly more potential here than a 63-win team, especially considering the Brewers won 73 last season. But they don't have that core building block, a Bryant or Rizzo, and that's a major reason they're likely a couple of years away.
Key player: Orlando Arcia. Overmatched in his first big league trial (.219/.273/.358), he has to prove he's the shortstop of the future.
2016: 68-94, minus-138 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 68-94
Key moves so far: none
Well, Joey Votto is still one of the best hitters in the league, so that's a start. Billy Hamilton had a really good second half, so despite the trade rumors, if the OBP improvement holds, he's an All-Star-caliber player with his speed and defense. After that ... a little hope, a lot of prayer.
Actually, here's a good starting point: The Reds had three starters -- Dan Straily, Brandon Finnegan, Anthony DeSclafani -- make 20-plus starts with an ERA under 4.00. You can debate whether those guys can repeat that success, but the Reds were one of just nine teams with three or more starters to match that criteria. Seven of the other eight teams made the playoffs. Despite this, the Reds finished just 25th in the majors in rotation ERA. The back end of the rotation was awful, so improvement there -- Robert Stephenson? Homer Bailey? -- will be instrumental to the team's chances of cracking .500.
On offense, they have to find somebody besides Votto who can get on base. Adam Duvall's 33 home runs were a nice surprise, but he has to improve his .297 OBP. Eugenio Suaraz needs to take the leap from 21-homer, .317 OBP guy to 25-homer, .347-OBP guy. We mentioned Hamilton. Scott Schebler also has to beat his .311 projection.
Key player: Jose Peraza. He probably projects as a full-time utility guy this year, with Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart still on the team. He hit .324/.352/.411 in 256 plate appearances -- more walks, please -- but could be a future star, whether it's at second base or shortstop.