The Nationals made their move back to the top of the NL East in 2016, but how much of that will carry over into 2017, and how much can they count on Bryce Harper to bounce back from his tumble from greatness? One thing seems certain: Between the Mets' depth, the Marlins' mass acquisition of pitching help, and a Braves team looking to build on a strong stretch run, the division is about to get much tighter.
There are still a huge number of free agents available, but let's look at the NL East and where each team stands right now in its hunt for the 2017 postseason (teams are listed in the order they finished in the 2016 NL East standings).
2016: 95-67, +151 run differential, lost to Dodgers in NLDS
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 90-72
Key moves so far: Acquired OF Adam Eaton from White Sox for Ps Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning; acquired C Derek Norris; traded SS Danny Espinosa; lost P Mark Melancon, C Wilson Ramos as free agents.
Are the Nationals better than they were last year? There's reason to believe they'll at least be as good after the Eaton trade and with a full season from Trea Turner. Harper's decline was a bit staggering -- 87-point dip in batting average and OBP, 208 points in slugging -- and Baseball-Reference's metrics say he was worth eight fewer wins than in 2015. Even if 2015 proves to be peak Harper, he should be better than he was in 2016.
At the same time, there are reasons for concern. The starting pitching depth is thin, and Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross both landed on the DL in 2016. They're looking for a closer or bullpen depth if Blake Treinen or Shawn Kelley take over the ninth. Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth are aging former stars, as the Nationals had the worst first-base production in the majors, and Werth hit just .220/.312/.356 against righties. Then you have to account for some likely regression from Daniel Murphy and the loss of Ramos, who posted an .850 OPS in a huge year at the plate.
Key player: In his insane half season, Turner nearly matched NL MVP Kris Bryant in WAR/650 PA (7.0 for Turner, 7.2 for Bryant). Is he that good, and were the power numbers legit? Plus, he moves back to shortstop, his primary position in college and the minors. If he hits like he did in 2016 -- and imagine if he develops a little more patience (just 14 walks in 324 PAs) and handles the move back to shortstop -- he's an MVP candidate. And maybe the best player on the team.
2016: 87-75, +54 run differential, lost wild-card game
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 84-78
Key moves so far: Re-signed OF Yoenis Cespedes; 2B Neil Walker accepted qualifying offer; lost free-agent P Bartolo Colon.
Consider the combined performances of Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey:
2015: 83 GS, 530 ⅓ IP, 2.80 ERA
2016: 71 GS, 424 ⅓ IP, 3.25 ERA
In one sense, the injuries to Harvey and then deGrom overstated the drop in production from 2015. The trio had just 12 fewer starts and 106 fewer innings, which isn't nothing and was certainly less than maybe the 600 or so the Mets were counting on. Overall, the Mets' rotation ERA rose from 3.44 to 3.61, but with the increase in offense, the rotation was arguably better than 2015, and not really a reason the Mets fell from 90 wins to 87.
The rotation is still the key to the playoffs, however, with Harvey recently saying he feels good after surgery in July. He's not the only concern. DeGrom had surgery to reposition a nerve in his elbow, and Steven Matz had a bone spur removed his elbow (and was also sidelined late with a shoulder issue that irritated his rotator cuff). Robert Gsellman, who looks like a potential No. 3 starter, also had labrum surgery on his non-pitching shoulder.
One thing I like about the Mets is their offensive depth. If Curtis Granderson can't play center every day, they can plug in Juan Lagares. If Jay Bruce stinks, Michael Conforto can step in. If Lucas Duda's back issue pops up again, Wilmer Flores can play first. David Wright is still around as a potential contributor. Of course, that doesn't mean it's a great offense, but with better health, the Mets should improve from finishing 11th in the NL in runs in 2016.
Key player: Now that he has his big contract, Cespedes has to remain motivated to put up big numbers.
2016: 79-82, minus-27 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 80-82
Key moves so far: Signed free-agent Ps Edinson Volquez, Jeff Locke, Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa; signed C A.J. Ellis; lost Ps Fernando Rodney, Andrew Cashner, Mike Dunn as free agents.
The Marlins were just four games out of first entering August before floundering down the stretch with a 10-18 record in August and 12-16 in September. They were under .500 against all four NL East rivals, including 16-21 against the Phillies and Braves, so one obvious path to their first postseason trip since 2003 is to simply play better within the division.
Here's an interesting fact: The five NL teams to allow fewer runs than the Marlins were the five playoff teams. OK, Volquez and Locke won't replace Jose Fernandez, but the Marlins' idea of building bullpen depth makes sense. They'll need rebound seasons from Volquez and Wei-Yin Chen, while Adam Conley is a sleeper breakout candidate. Overlooked, however, is that the Marlins' offense -- even adjusting for playing in a pitchers' park -- wasn't very good in 2016. Here are their wOBA rankings at each position:
C: 11th
1B: 26th
2B: 24th
3B: 13th
SS: 30th
LF: 2nd
CF: 7th
RF: 11th
P: 14th (of 15)
Christian Yelich was the one obvious strength, and Marcell Ozuna hit pretty well in center field, but three of the infield positions were disasters. They need Dee Gordon to hit like he did in 2015 and Giancarlo Stanton to put up MVP numbers like in 2014, and they should at least get a little better production at first base with a healthy Justin Bour. If that happens, they can compete, even with a mediocre rotation.
Key player: Stanton. I don't buy that he "lost" his stroke or was "scared" of inside pitches. His OPS was over 1.000 in early May when he injured his torso. He struggled through May and June and then had a big July (.305, seven home runs). He then injured his groin in mid-August and played sparingly down the stretch. Of course, staying healthy is his problem. But maybe this is the year he puts up that 50-homer season.
2016: 71-91, minus-186 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 70-92
Key moves so far: P Jeremy Hellickson accepted qualifying offer; traded for LF Howie Kendrick; signed free-agent P Joaquin Benoit; traded for P Clay Buchholz.
The rebuilding Phillies have remained content to sit still for a year and wait to spend their money in a better free-agent class, so contending is an obvious long shot. The rotation could be sleepy good even while lacking an ace. Hellickson and Jerad Eickhoff are solid innings eaters who throw strikes. They don't light up the radar gun, but they also don't beat themselves. Aaron Nola's season ended early with a sore elbow, but he's cut from the same mold. Vince Velasquez impressed in his first full season with 152 strikeouts in 131 innings, and if he can improve his changeup or curveball to give him a better off-speed weapon against left-handers, he has top-of-the-rotation potential. They have multiple options for the fifth spot. Maybe there's not a sexy name here, but outside of Hellickson, the others are all young, and young pitching can develop into a playoff staff overnight.
The offense was atrocious, finishing last in the NL in runs for the first time since 2016. But the bad players are all gone! Ryan Howard and his .257 OBP, finally off the roster. Cody Asche (.284 OBP), designated for assignment. Tyler Goeddel (.258 OBP), back in the minors for a season. Peter Bourjos (.292 OBP), roaming in free-agent land. Jimmy Paredes (.242 OBP), goodbye. Those five players accounted for over 1,300 plate appearances, or nearly two full lineup spots. So, addition by subtraction!
Key player: Speaking of OBP, Maikel Franco hit .255/.306/.427. While J.P. Crawford is expected to take over at shortstop at some point, he's more of a glove-first player. The Phillies need Franco to consolidate his skills. He has power (25 home runs) and a below-average strikeout rate, but he swings from his rear too often and at too many pitches outside the strike zone.
2016: 68-93, minus-130 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 76-86
Key moves so far: Signed free-agent Ps Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey; acquired P Jaime Garcia from Cardinals; signed free-agent INF Sean Rodriguez.
The Braves went 24-14 over the final 38 games and were second in the majors in runs per game over that stretch, so as they move into their ballpark for 2017 the organization is infused with more optimism than the typical 68-93 team. Is it warranted? Note that FanGraphs forecasts a big improvement, but a team still well short of playoff contention.
How do they get there? Freddie Freeman finished sixth in the MVP voting after hitting a Hank Aaron-in-his-prime .323/.433/.634 in the second half. Dansby Swanson displayed star potential with a .302/.361/.442 line in his 38-game call-up. Matt Kemp improved his OPS nearly 100 points after leaving the Padres, perhaps invigorated about leaving a hopeless situation in San Diego. He's a lousy defender, but he and Freeman hit a combined 69 home runs in 2016. Ender Inciarte is a Gold Glove winner and gets on base. That's a pretty nice foundation, and if Rodriguez matches his numbers with the Pirates -- .510 slugging -- he could give them another power bat at third base or in a utility role. The Braves finished 14th in the NL in runs, but you can dream on a plus offense in 2017.
That leaves the rotation, with three veteran imports brought in. The company line is that more time was needed for the young starters to develop. The truth is that the young starters in the minors have been overhyped, and Mike Foltynewicz, Matt Wisler and Aaron Blair remain unproven at the major league level. But all three have talent, so you dream on two of those turning into league-average rotation arms and suddenly the rotation is much-improved if old geezers Colon and Dickey come through alongside Julio Teheran and Garcia. In the big picture, you also need the Nationals and Mets to suffer some key injuries, but both teams have rosters full of injury-prone players.
Key player: Swanson. He actually hit better with the Braves than at Double-A, so I'm not completely sold on the bat or the range at shortstop. If he does prove to be a legit top-of-the-order hitter, Freeman is going to drive in a lot of runs.