The 2025 men's NCAA tournament preview has evolved since we created the first one 30-odd years ago. It's how Bracketology began -- when a handful of hoop nerds gathered during "Selection Weekend" and put together an 80-page postseason "Blue Ribbon" guide. This was the ultimate end to spending the entire college basketball season poring over résumés, watching games, and evaluating strengths, weaknesses and possibilities. All on the crew's own time.
Thirty years later, the guide has shrunk a tad but still has the crucial information you need to understand the bracket. We're still poring over résumés, watching games, and evaluating strengths, weaknesses and possibilities.
And we've identified exactly how every team will advance -- and also how it won't. Plus, Bracketologist-in-Chief Joe Lunardi is still putting the numbers and ranks together to tell you, finally, where every team will actually finish. The results may or may not surprise you.
As the 68 teams of the 2025 men's NCAA tournament begin the journey to San Antonio on Tuesday, March 18, here is Joe Lunardi's March Madness guide. Use it (or not) to fill out your bracket. Happy hoops!
Jump to a region:
East | Midwest | South | West
SOUTH
No. 1 Auburn Tigers
Why they will advance
Auburn has the best offense in the nation, featuring a dominant, versatile big man in Johni Broome, who made an impact in every facet of the game despite dealing with multiple injuries. The Tigers have ample options around him, including mercurial forward Chad Baker-Mazara, sensational freshman Tahaad Pettiford, and Miles Kelly, one of four Tigers to make at least 45 3-pointers at a 39% or better clip.
Why they won't advance
The Tigers limped to the finish in the regular season, allowing Texas A&M and Alabama to shred their defense by controlling the offensive glass. Broome's health is a legitimate question mark, as is Baker-Mazara's ability to control his emotions and remain on the floor. A first-round loss to Yale in last year's tournament is also fresh in their minds.
Did you know?
Auburn finished the regular season with a 129.1 adjusted offensive efficiency, the highest recorded mark in the KenPom database, which dates back to 1997. The Tigers ranked top 25 in effective field goal percentage and turnover rate and were 43rd in offensive rebounding percentage. Every rotation player except Pettiford recorded at least a 115 offensive rating and was 50% or better in effective field goal percentage. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 3
Résumé rating: 1
NCAA seed list: 1
Joey Brackets says ...
Auburn tightens up its defense, the offense keeps rolling and Bruce Pearl leads the program back to the Final Four for the second time in the past seven seasons. Could it be? Yes. Will it be? It says here that Tom Izzo and Michigan State have other ideas in the Elite Eight.
Final field rank: 5
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans
Why they will advance
At age 70, legendary Michigan State coach Tom Izzo proved he still has it. Picked fifth in the Big Ten preseason poll and then flying under the radar after November losses to Kansas and Memphis, the Spartans blossomed into the program's first outright Big Ten champion since 2018 by adhering to the tenets of Izzology: intense defense, balanced scoring and an everyone-on-the-glass approach.
Why they won't advance
The Spartans have flaws. The biggest? Michigan State is one of the nation's worst 3-point shooting teams (29.9% as a team). And because of the team's incredible depth, Michigan State plays at a NASCAR-type pace (pushing the ball even after opponents make baskets) and as a result, ill-timed turnovers can arise.
Did you know?
With 10 players averaging 15 minutes or more per game, Michigan State is deeper than a Stanley Kubrick film. The Spartans feature only two double-figure scorers: senior guard Jaden Akins and prized freshman Jase Richardson, ex-MSU star Jason Richardson's son and the Spartans' best NBA prospect. But Izzo's squad also has eight other players averaging between 4.8 and 8.7 points per contest. -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 10
Résumé rating: 7
NCAA seed list: 7
Joey Brackets says ...
The analytics suggest a team that shoots under 30% from long range can't win the national title, but MSU makes up for its wayward 3-point aim by pounding the offensive glass, using its depth, making its free throws and holding opponents to even worse 3-point shooting. It's probably not enough to win six tournament games, but the Final Four isn't out of the question. In fact, we're predicting it.
Final field rank: 4
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones
Why they will advance
Iowa State can beat anybody, as evidenced by a season sweep of new conference rival Arizona. It ranks seventh in ESPN's Basketball Power Index, just ahead of two other Big 12 teams. It can put the ball in the hoop, scoring at least 80 points on 18 occasions in the regular season, including each of its first 11 games.
Why they won't advance
While the Cyclones have been dominant for much of this season, they also suffered some inexplicable losses. Their 29-game home-court winning streak came to an end when they blew a big first-half lead over Kansas State, a team coming in with a 15-game road losing streak, in an 80-61 loss. They're only slightly above average in rebounding margin, finishing the Big 12 season tied for seventh.
Did you know?
The Cyclones have appeared in 12 NCAA tournaments -- not counting this year -- since last reaching the Elite Eight in 2000. They've lost in the Sweet 16 four times in that stretch, including twice in the past three years. Their only Final Four appearance came in 1944, when there were just eight teams in the NCAA tournament. -- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 8
Résumé rating: 16
NCAA seed list: 10
Joey Brackets says ...
Iowa State certainly has second-weekend potential. It has reached the Sweet 16 four times in the past 10 tournaments, including twice in coach TJ Otzelberger's first three seasons. But it might be a tall task now without senior guard Keshon Gilbert. Could it be that the Cyclones fall victim to kissed-by-fate North Carolina? We think so.
Final field rank: 18
No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies
Why they will advance
The Aggies are the nation's best offensive rebounding team, corralling 42% of their missed shots. Now, pair that with a top-10 defense that controls the paint. Wade Taylor IV has been an A&M force for four seasons and can create offense late in the shot clock or a tight game. Henry Coleman III is a blue-collar forward whose toughness epitomizes a Buzz Williams squad.
Why they won't advance
The Aggies have little offense beyond the offensive glass and the free throw line. They are clearly the worst shooting team from a power conference in the tournament, ranking 317th in effective field goal percentage, and they commit turnovers at an alarming rate, slotting 249th in that category. A&M had a sub-100 offensive rating in six games this season, losing four of them.
Did you know?
Williams has coached at Marquette, Virginia Tech and Texas A&M in the past 17 seasons. He has led those three programs to 11 NCAA tournament bids in that span and posted 20-win campaigns in all but four seasons. A&M has won 20 games in four consecutive seasons for the first time since a seven-year streak from 2005 to 2011. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 21
Résumé rating: 15
NCAA seed list: 13
Joey Brackets says ...
Teams that can't make shots and rely on a referee's whistle to create points often exit early from the NCAA tournament. Don't expect A&M to be an exception to that rule. The Aggies get by Yale before another double-digit entry, UC San Diego, knocks them out.
Final field rank: 20
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines
Why they will advance
Last March, Michigan replaced Juwan Howard with Dusty May. A savvy portal watcher, May brought in players from the Ivy League, SEC, American Athletic Conference, West Coast Conference and Big Ten. Led by gifted big men Vladislav Goldin (who followed May from Florida Atlantic) and Danny Wolf (a stat-sheet-stuffer from Yale), Michigan transformed from a Big Ten laughingstock into a blue-chip stock.
Why they won't advance
Michigan dropped four of its final six regular-season games with an offense that was out of sync. The Wolverines' biggest issue has been turning the ball over -- they rank outside the top 300 in the country in turnover rate. They will need to take better care of the ball or their stay in Bracketville will be brief.
Did you know?
Seven-foot Yale transfer Wolf has been a revelation, helping make Michigan relevant again while putting himself on the radar of NBA scouts with his agility and passing skills. He leads the Wolverines in rebounds and blocks, which you might expect from a big man, yet is also second in assists, points and field goal percentage, making more than half of his shots. -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 28
Résumé rating: 10
NCAA seed list: 17
Joey Brackets says ...
May has completely turned around Michigan's hoops fortunes. But the 20-game Big Ten schedule makes for a grueling trip. That plus a crazy good Big Ten tourney run might have worn down the Wolverines. Michigan is prime upset fodder against UC San Diego in Denver.
Final field rank: 34
No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
Why they will advance
Ole Miss might have the most balanced attack in the 68-team field, featuring six players who average double-figure scoring and certified shotmakers in Sean Pedulla and Matthew Murrell. The Rebels value the basketball at an elite level (third in turnover rate) and boast the nation's third most experienced roster. Wins over Tennessee and Alabama give the Rebels faithful hope a March run could be in the cards.
Why they won't advance
While balance can be beneficial during the grind of a rugged conference schedule, it's fair to ask if the Rebels have a reliable option who can create points when the sets break down and the opposing defense is locked in. Ole Miss was outclassed in late-season blowout losses at Florida and Auburn and enters the tournament in a shooting slump, hitting 52 of 177 (29%) of 3-pointers over its past eight games (3-5).
Did you know?
Despite the wealth of experience, Ole Miss guard Jaylen Murray is the only key Rebel who has played in the NCAA tournament. The former Saint Peter's transfer played 53 minutes and scored 23 points over four games in 2022, helping the 15-seed Peacocks to their remarkable run to the Elite Eight. Chris Beard hopes he can lead Ole Miss to similar success in the program's first tournament appearance since 2019. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 30
Résumé rating: 20
NCAA seed list: 24
Joey Brackets says ...
It's nice to have you back in the bracket, Rebels, but I'm sorry to say it will be a short stay. Ole Miss goes back to Oxford after a first-round loss to those survive-and-advance North Carolina Tar Heels.
Final field rank: 38
No. 7 Marquette Golden Eagles
Why they will advance
Marquette dominates the turnover battle to earn extra possessions. The Golden Eagles rank eighth nationally in avoiding turnovers and 13th nationally in forcing turnovers. That advantage leads to an average of seven more field goal attempts per game than opponents, a huge advantage.
Why they won't advance
Despite those extra possessions, the Marquette offense can be a little lifeless at times. The Golden Eagles shoot a ton of 3-pointers but do so poorly -- they rank 244th in the country. Marquette also ranked dead last in the Big East in free throw rate, adding to the sluggish offensive tendencies.
Did you know?
Lead guard Kam Jones has a chance to become a household name this month. He scored 18.9 points per game this season while leading the Big East with the highest assist percentage and lowest turnover rate. -- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 26
Résumé rating: 27
NCAA seed list: 26
Joey Brackets says ...
If March Madness dictates that a team peak at the right time, the Golden Eagles are in trouble. On Jan. 28, Marquette was 18-3 and 9-1 in the Big East. Since then, the Golden Eagles lost six of 10 to end the regular season, and their last win over an at-large team was way back on Jan. 3. Marquette's swoon dooms it to a first-round loss.
Final field rank: 39
No. 8 Louisville Cardinals
Why they will advance
Louisville coach Pat Kelsey came in and performed an extreme makeover by accepting more transfers than the Chicago transit system and then molding them into a cohesive team. Taking over a program that resided in the ACC basement the past two years, Kelsey hit the jackpot in the transfer portal by landing a quartet of double-figure scorers in Chucky Hepburn, Terrence Edwards Jr., Reyne Smith and J'Vonne Hadley.
Why they won't advance
Louisville has a bevy of outside shooters who love to hoist 3-balls. Of the Cardinals' 1,844 shot attempts during the regular season, 899 were from behind the arc -- that's 48.7% of their shot attempts. When the 3s drop, life is good. But when they don't, the Cardinals will be vulnerable.
Did you know?
Louisville is the only Division I team that has had four players with a 30-point game this season -- Hepburn (37 points vs. Pittsburgh), Edwards (35 vs. California), Hadley (32 vs. Clemson) and Smith (30 vs. SMU). -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 23
Résumé rating: 12
NCAA seed list: 29
Joey Brackets says ...
Louisville is one of the feel-good stories of the 2024-25 season. Led by confident floor general Hepburn, who led the ACC in steals, was second in assists and was just outside the top 10 in scoring, these Cardinals would be a lot harder to vanquish if they were seeded correctly. Instead, I see them dropping a tight one to Creighton.
Final field rank: 40
No. 9 Creighton Bluejays
Why they will advance
For a few years now, Greg McDermott has been playing his version of "Moneyball." The Bluejays are top 10 nationally in 3-point rate and assist rate, with the nation's best 2-point percentage. Defensively, they allow the lowest free throw rate in the country and make opponents live in the midrange. McDermott is betting their good 3s and dunks beat your 2-point jumpers -- and that's a smart bet.
Why they won't advance
McDermott's bet is still a gamble, especially with a team that is not as adept at 3-point shooting as his prior rosters. Creighton shot under 30% from deep 10 times in the regular season, going 3-7 in those games. When the Bluejays shot better than 37%, they were 10-0. It's a roll of the dice.
Did you know?
Fifth-year big man Ryan Kalkbrenner was recently named Big East Defensive Player of the Year for the fourth consecutive season. The only other player in Big East history to accomplish that was Georgetown legend Patrick Ewing. Kalkbrenner is a historically great rim protector. -- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 32
Résumé rating: 30
NCAA seed list: 33
Joey Brackets says ...
The way Creighton plays, the Bluejays can beat anyone on a hot shooting night but could go home just as easily if the jumpers run cold. Kalkbrenner provides enough stability to propel them to a win over Louisville, but the Bluejays don't have enough answers to surprise Auburn.
Final field rank: 27
No. 10 New Mexico Lobos
Why they will advance
The Mountain West regular-season champs' fearsome defense ranks in the top 20 in most of the KenPom metrics, aided by Iona transfer and stat sheet stuffer Nelly Junior Joseph. Throw in the fourth-fastest tempo in the country, paced by Mountain West Player of the Year Donovan Dent, and the Lobos can wear out most opponents.
Why they won't advance
Stack Dent and Junior Joseph up against any tandem in the country, and they'd likely hold their own. New Mexico's biggest Achilles' heel, however, lies in its next wave of scorers. Dayton transfer Mustapha Amzil hasn't looked like the same perimeter threat that he was in Anthony Grant's system. Inconsistency behind the big two could be the Lobos' downfall.
Did you know?
The Lobos' last Sweet 16 appearance came back in 1974. Coach Richard Pitino hadn't even been born yet, and his dad, Rick, was in his senior year on a UMass team. The elder Pitino averaged 5 points a game for a Minutemen squad paced by former Rhode Island and Boston College head coach Al Skinner and his 18 PPG. -- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 40
Résumé rating: 33
NCAA seed list: 38
Joey Brackets says ...
That 51-year Sweet 16 drought continues. New Mexico has enough contributors, led by bucket-maker extraordinaire Dent, to ruin someone. Dent can get 30 on any given night, which is more than good enough against fading Marquette but ultimately not enough against Michigan State.
Final field rank: 28
No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs
Why they will advance
Pressure defense has long served as the Aztecs' calling card under Brian Dutcher. SDSU ranks inside the top 15 in defensive efficiency and in the top 60 in both turnover percentage and steal percentage. The 2023 NCAA runner-up also has a menacing shot blocker in Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Magoon Gwath. And, when fully healthy, SDSU can challenge almost anybody.
Why they won't advance
"When fully healthy" unfortunately doesn't currently apply to the Aztecs. They bowed out early in the Mountain West quarterfinals after Gwath missed his sixth straight game due to a hyperextended knee. The 7-footer has hinted he's focused on getting to the NBA, and it's not a lock he'll even play in the Big Dance.
Did you know?
The Aztecs have featured the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year each of the past four years. Nathan Mensah started the trend with back-to-back awards in 2021-22 and 2022-23, followed by current Kentucky guard Lamont Butler last season. Defense certainly travels in March, as Dutcher's squad has won seven NCAA tournament games in the past two years. -- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 46
Résumé rating: 44
NCAA seed list: 43
Joey Brackets says ...
Gwath's injury suggests San Diego State most likely won't survive its opening-round matchup with North Carolina (just another bit of good fortune for the Tar Heels). The Aztecs had much better offensive numbers in their past two tournament runs, and they simply aren't the same team without him, as evidenced by their .500 record in his six-game absence.
Final field rank: 66
No. 11 North Carolina Tar Heels
Why they will advance
Following weeks of bracketologist chatter about its lack of Quad 1 wins, North Carolina is in the field of 68. The Tar Heels are led by guards RJ Davis (17.1 PPG), Ian Jackson (13 PPG), Seth Trimble (11.6 PPG) and Elliot Cadeau (9.4 PPG) but are getting invaluable contributions lately from big man Ven-Allen Lubin and sweet-shooting forward Jae'Lyn Withers.
Why they won't advance
North Carolina prefers to use small-ball lineups, and that preference, combined with the team's lack of backcourt size, makes for some defensive shortcomings (75.5 PPG allowed this season). And this isn't the usual loaded-with-sequoias Heels frontcourt, so opponents don't double the post as much -- forcing Davis to shoot more contested shots this season (he's shooting 7% worse from 3-point range).
Did you know?
Hubert Davis picked up his 100th win in his 143rd game as North Carolina's head coach in last week's 68-59 ACC tournament quarterfinal triumph over Wake Forest. He is the third fastest to 100 wins in UNC history. Only Roy Williams (129 games) and Frank McGuire (139) reached 100 wins in fewer games for the Tar Heels. -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 33
Résumé rating: 43
NCAA seed list: 46
Joey Brackets says ...
Nine of UNC's 12 losses have come against top-50 opponents, including four top-five teams -- Auburn, Alabama, Duke (twice) and Florida. So despite the complaints about Carolina getting into the Big Dance -- all legitimate, by the way -- the reality is it'll take a first-rate team to end its season. And, thanks to injuries at San Diego State and Iowa State, that won't happen until the Tar Heels face Michigan State in the Sweet 16.
Final field rank: 15
No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons
Why they will advance
The Tritons make the tournament in their first year of eligibility and boast the longest winning streak in the country at 15 games. They have a great combination working: They minimize turnovers (top five nationally) and they force a bunch of them, so they lead the nation in turnover margin. Fifth-year swingman Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, the Big West Player of the Year, leads the team in scoring, rebounding and assists.
Why they won't advance
Depth is a problem; the starters log a lot of minutes, and the bench does not provide a lot of firepower. The Tritons take a collective approach to rebounding -- with only marginal success, as they have been outrebounded for the season. Foot speed could also be a problem against a quick team.
Did you know?
Tait-Jones is from New Zealand, and his first name, Aniwaniwa, means rainbow in the Maori language. -- Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 43
Résumé rating: 41
NCAA seed list: 47
Joey Brackets says ...
The Tritons are a veteran team and can point to a victory over an excellent Utah State team on their résumé; their careful approach and multitalented Tait-Jones make them a threat to pull off a first-round upset. Or more. We see UCSD taking out both Michigan and Texas A&M for a Sweet 16 appearance.
Final field rank: 16
No. 13 Yale Bulldogs
Why they will advance
Veteran point guard Bez Mbeng is ultraquick, adept at finding dependable outside shooters John Poulakidas and Nick Townsend, and is a great defender. Yale stacks up nationally in several statistics, with a top-10 ranking in rebounding margin, top-15 in 3-point percentage and top-20 in shooting percentage and 3-point defense. James Jones, in his 26th season, is one of the most underrated coaches in the nation.
Why they won't advance
Despite their outstanding rebounding effort, the Bulldogs are undersized and could find themselves overwhelmed on the interior. If only Danny Wolf hadn't transferred to Michigan.
Did you know?
Townsend's brother, Matt, also played at Yale, but his mother, sister, grandfather and two uncles were athletes at archrival Harvard. -- Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 51
Résumé rating: 53
NCAA seed list: 51
Joey Brackets says ...
Smart play, tough defense and great coaching make Yale a true Cinderella candidate, especially if Poulakidas is hitting his 3s. If he is, all I can say is: "Bibbidi-Bobbidi-Boo." But Buzz Williams and Texas A&M aren't falling into that trap the way Auburn did a year ago.
Final field rank: 50
No. 14 Lipscomb Bisons
Why they will advance
Two reasons: This is a veteran, poised team with four fifth-year senior starters who play 35-plus minutes. In addition, this is an excellent shooting team (47.3% and 55.8 effective field goal percentage), and it plays a Princeton-like style that can be difficult to defend. If the game is close, the Bisons make their free throws (79.4% on the season).
Why they won't advance
This is not a physical team, and Lipscomb could get pushed around by a team with good size. Depth could also be an issue, as coach Lennie Acuff will probably play only seven players.
Did you know?
Acuff carries with him a dog-eared copy of the book "The Smart Take From the Strong'' by former Princeton coach Pete Carril, and refers to it often. The book is equal parts autobiography, philosophy and basketball strategy. Acuff's offense is heavily influenced by Carril and former Michigan coach John Beilein. -- Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 54
Résumé rating: 58
NCAA seed list: 55
Joey Brackets says ...
The Bison play a unique system and play it well. They are a sneaky pick to pull off a round-of-64 upset over short-handed Iowa State, but I can't quite go there.
Final field rank: 53
No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs
Why they will advance
This is a veteran squad, more athletic than your usual American East team, and one that plays with poise and won 10 road games. The team's four leading scorers are a graduate (Earl Timberlake), a senior (Rafael Pinzon), a sixth-year (Connor Withers) and a junior (Barry Evans). League Player of the Year Timberlake is second in scoring and leads the team in rebounding and assists.
Why they won't advance
When the Bulldogs have played above the America East level, it hasn't gone well. They've been routed by St. John's, St. Bonaventure and Grand Canyon.
Did you know?
Coach Phil Martelli Jr. was a walk-on at Saint Joseph's when the Hawks went to the Elite Eight under his father, Phil Sr., in 2003-04. -- Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 59
Résumé rating: 61
NCAA seed list: 62
Joey Brackets says ...
The Bulldogs are different from the usual America East squads; they're athletic and play fast. They're still a long shot, especially against the experience and toughness of Michigan State.
Final field rank: 60
No. 16 Alabama State Hornets
Why they will advance
Guards are important in March, and Alabama State has three great ones. Amarr Knox, CJ Hines and TJ Madlock give the Hornets a trio that can stand toe-to-toe with any group in the country. Hines and Knox lead the scoring, averaging just over 14 PPG, while Madlock is a do-it-all guard averaging 12.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game.
Why they won't advance
Alabama State's defense has been a roller coaster this season: formidable at times but shaky at other moments. Its 3-point defense ranks 142nd nationally, allowing opponents to shoot 33.1% from distance. While the Hornets have had some strong defensive performances recently, their inability to defend the perimeter could sting them.
Did you know?
Grammy Award-winning rapper 2 Chainz played basketball for Alabama State during the 1996-97 season. -- Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 67
Résumé rating: 67
NCAA seed list: 67
Joey Brackets says ...
Alabama State has some undeniable talent, but it won't be enough to keep it dancing beyond opening night. Finishing fourth in the SWAC regular season, the Hornets have not proved they can compete against high-level opponents. Their run in the SWAC tournament will be all the magic they'll have this March.
Final field rank: 68
No. 16 St. Francis (Pa.) Red Flash
Why they will advance
The Red Flash continue to play with house money. The NEC tournament champs closed the regular season with three straight overtime wins and then picked up three more victories in the conference tourney, culminating in the title game with an upset of Central Connecticut -- a team that until that point had been on the nation's longest win streak.
Why they won't advance
There's little to no statistical evidence to suggest St. Francis will be here long. Rob Krimmel has one of the nation's most inexperienced rosters on his hands. The Red Flash rate in the bottom 70 in offensive efficiency, turn it over at a high rate and needed to win their conference tournament with a game in the 40s.
Did you know?
St. Francis last made the Big Dance under Jim Baron in 1991, so its 46-43 NEC title game win last weekend erased ghosts of postseasons past for Krimmel, whose teams ended up as the conference runner-up in 2017, 2019 and 2020. That 1991 team lost to Arizona in the first round and featured eventual NBA second-round draft pick, and current Robert Morris assistant, Mike Iuzzolino. -- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 68
Résumé rating: 68
NCAA seed list: 68
Joey Brackets says ...
Kudos to the Red Flash for getting the job done over Central Connecticut after five straight losses to the Blue Devils, including two this season by a combined 31 points. And they get to pull the first upset of the tournament, as Team 68 knocks off Team 67 (Alabama State) for a ride from Dayton to Lexington.
Final field rank: 64
EAST
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils
Why they will advance
Duke has all the ingredients of a national championship team: a superstar with an all-around game and a Marvel movie hero name (Cooper Flagg); likely 2025 NBA first-round draft picks (Flagg, Kon Knueppel, Khaman Maluach); a high-octane offense and elite defense; plus some veterans sprinkled in who have made deep NCAA tourney runs before (Tyrese Proctor, Mason Gillis).
Why they won't advance
Sure the ACC is down, but Duke has made league foes look like the Washington Generals on a nightly basis. There are only a few teams in the Blue Devils' weight class this season. But one wonders how Duke will respond in a close contest against one of those teams -- in the Elite Eight or Final Four -- after months of blowing teams off the court.
Did you know?
Duke's freshmen can really play. Flagg is the first ACC player in history to lead his team in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals and blocks per game in the same season. Knueppel is the only player in the country averaging over 13 points and 2 assists on 45% shooting from the field, 39% from beyond the arc and 90% from the free throw line. -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 1
Résumé rating: 6
NCAA seed list: 2
Joey Brackets says ...
Flagg, everybody's All-American, is the top item on every scouting report and still averages nearly 20 points per contest and fills every meaningful category on the stat sheet. His presence plus a No. 1 seed, a talent-laden roster and the coaching acumen of Jon Scheyer are reasons to believe that Duke could capture its first national championship in a decade. I see the Blue Devils falling to Houston in the national semifinals.
Final field rank: 3
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide
Why they will advance
Battle-tested Alabama played the most difficult schedule in the nation, and Nate Oats enters the bracket with another high-octane offense, including the nucleus from last season's Final Four squad. Mark Sears thrives with the ball in his hands late in games, and Grant Nelson creates mismatches in the frontcourt. The Crimson Tide are top 5 in 2-point field goal percentage and top 25 in free throw rate.
Why they won't advance
The Crimson Tide allowed 1.1 points per possession or more in 13 games this season, can be exposed on the defensive backboard and are among the nation's worst (350th) at forcing turnovers. On a night when the shots aren't falling from beyond the arc, their inconsistent defense could be what sends them back to Tuscaloosa sooner than expected.
Did you know?
No moves should be surprising in this transfer portal era, but guard Aden Holloway made the unprecedented move from Auburn to Alabama before this season and has thrived in his new home. Holloway shot 42% on 3-pointers and ranked top 10 in the SEC in offensive rating, giving Bama yet another prolific scorer in its deep rotation. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 6
Résumé rating: 4
NCAA seed list: 6
Joey Brackets says ...
Alabama will need to defend well to repeat last year's NCAA tournament success. But there's been something slightly off and occasionally undisciplined with this squad at times, which I think will ultimately end in a we-don't-play-that-way upset loss to Saint Mary's in the second round.
Final field rank: 17
No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers
Why they will advance
After Chucky Hepburn (Louisville) and AJ Storr (Kansas) bolted from Madison via the portal, Wisconsin was expected to backslide. Enter John Tonje, a solid player at Colorado State before an injured year at Missouri. Tonje was one of the Big Ten's most explosive scorers (18.9 PPG), joining sophomore John Blackwell (15.6 PPG) as the centerpieces of the best offense in Greg Gard's tenure.
Why they won't advance
Wisconsin needs a healthy Max Klesmit if it hopes to make some magic this March. One of the Badgers' leaders in minutes played and a glue guy, he missed the final three games of the regular season with a lower leg injury -- and the Badgers went 1-2. He is also Wisconsin's top assist man and averages a whisker under 10 PPG.
Did you know?
Tonje was the nation's surprise superstar this winter. He didn't average double figures until his fourth year at Colorado State and finished with just 2.6 PPG at Missouri last year due to injury. Now 6-5 Tonje is one of college hoops' toughest covers because he can beat opponents off the bounce and possesses deadeye aim from behind both lines (37.8 3P%, 91.6 FT%). -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 14
Résumé rating: 13
NCAA seed list: 12
Joey Brackets says ...
Wisconsin lets it rain from the outside with five players canning 30-plus 3s in 2024-25. Even the Badgers' bigs are comfy jacking up trifectas. That plus the usually stingy Wisconsin defense sets the stage for an Elite Eight run in the East.
Final field rank: 7
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats
Why they will advance
The Wildcats have enough talent to make a deep run, and that starts with veteran leader and leading scorer Caleb Love. Love played in the Final Four as a sophomore at North Carolina in 2022 before transferring to Arizona for his final two seasons. But he is not the Wildcats' only weapon, as they have seven players averaging between 7.5 and 11.9 points per game.
Why they won't advance
The Wildcats stumbled down the stretch and seemed to lose a little bit of their mojo. They lost five of their last eight games in the regular season after reaching No. 13 in the AP poll. They fell out of the rankings altogether after a season-ending loss to Kansas.
Did you know?
The Wildcats have appeared in 23 NCAA tournaments, counting this year, since their national championship in 1997. But they've reached the Final Four only once (in 2001) in that stretch. In Tommy Lloyd's three seasons, the Wildcats have advanced to the Sweet 16 twice, but they haven't seen the Elite Eight. -- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 11
Résumé rating: 21
NCAA seed list: 16
Joey Brackets says ...
The Wildcats can both score and give it up with the best of them. That might work against Akron, but not Dana Altman and Oregon in the second round. It's another mixed bag outcome for the Wildcats.
Final field rank: 21
No. 5 Oregon Ducks
Why they will advance
Oregon has four double-digit scorers in its starting five: Nate Bittle, Jackson Shelstad, Keeshawn Barthelemy and TJ Bamba. Bittle, a 7-foot senior, might be the best player most of America doesn't know about. His 3-point ability draws the other team's center away from the basket, so Oregon's guards, Shelstad and Bamba, can penetrate and either score or kick out to shooters.
Why they won't advance
Bittle and Bamba are the Ducks' two irreplaceable defenders. The former is a Grade A rim protector, averaging 2.2 blocks per game, but he has been whistled for the most fouls of any Oregon player this season and has fouled out twice. Bamba is coach Dana Altman's lockdown perimeter defender, but he also can get into foul trouble (3 DQs in 2024-25).
Did you know?
Oregon took an old-school approach this season. Not only is Altman 66 years old, but the nine-man rotation is quite seasoned, too. It features four-year senior Bittle and six guys who've been in school for at least five years: Barthelemy, Bamba, Brandon Angel, Jadrian Tracey, Supreme Cook and Ra'Heim Moss. -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 36
Résumé rating: 14
NCAA seed list: 19
Joey Brackets says ...
Altman has the ingredients for some March magic, including a standout center (Bittle), a terrific sophomore point guard who possesses the clutch gene (Shelstad), and lots of experienced performers in his rotation. This group has beaten some of the most dangerous teams in the field (Alabama, Texas A&M, Maryland and Wisconsin). The Ducks collect another big name in the second round against Arizona before Duke sends them home in the regionals.
Final field rank: 13
No. 6 BYU Cougars
Why they will advance
BYU got hot at the right time, finishing the regular season with an eight-game winning streak, including road wins over ranked Arizona and Iowa State. The Cougars are led by forward Richie Saunders, who averages 16.0 PPG, a stat that rose to 18.4 during that streak. Saunders is not the Cougars' only weapon, however, as six others average at least 7.3 PPG.
Why they won't advance
The Cougars' defense sometimes lets them down. They're eighth or worse in multiple defensive statistics in the 16-team Big 12, including scoring (allowing 70.1 PPG, 10th), field goal percentage allowed (42.5%, 10th) and 3-point field goal percentage allowed (34.3, 14th). Against a potent offense, they could be in trouble.
Did you know?
BYU has the most NCAA tournament appearances without reaching the Final Four (31). It has played in the Elite Eight only once since back-to-back appearances in 1950 and 1951. That was in 1981, when it lost to Ralph Sampson and Virginia. It has played in the Sweet 16 only once since then, in 2011. -- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 19
Résumé rating: 24
NCAA seed list: 21
Joey Brackets says ...
The Cougars are a well-balanced team that has established itself as a force to be reckoned with in the rugged Big 12. But their consecutive tournaments without a Sweet 16 appearance will extend to 22 as underrated VCU pulls the mini upset in Denver.
Final field rank: 36
No. 7 Saint Mary's Gaels
Why they will advance
Randy Bennett has once again built a glacially paced, defensive-minded team that can grind its opponents into powder. No team in the country holds opponents to fewer made 3-pointers per game. The Gaels make you win with tough shots and always contest looks at the rim.
Why they won't advance
Saint Mary's plays at a snail's pace. The Gaels are efficient doing so, with a top-50 offense in the nation, but that strategy often proves risky in elimination play. Early deficits can be difficult to overcome. Leading scorer Augustas Marciulionis shot 39% from long range in wins but just 18% in losses.
Did you know?
After years of Australian stars leading the way in Moraga, the top two scorers for the Gaels this season are Lithuanian imports. Big man Paulius Murauskas joins Marciulionis, who is the son of Basketball Hall of Famer Sarunas Marciulionis. -- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 25
Résumé rating: 23
NCAA seed list: 27
Joey Brackets says ...
This marks Randy Bennett's 11th trip to the Big Dance with the Gaels. In those prior visits, Saint Mary's has reached the second weekend just once, in 2010, and has just four first-round wins. That is about to change. The Gaels are better than Vanderbilt and are poised to slow Alabama down in a major upset. Saint Mary's brings its 2010 memories back to life.
Final field rank: 14
No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs
Why they will advance
Chris Jans has led Mississippi State to the NCAA tournament in all three seasons in Starkville, and this is by far the most potent offense he has guided into the bracket. The Bulldogs are 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency -- nearly 50 spots improved over last season -- led by dynamic scorer Josh Hubbard, who can fill the basket on drives, 3-pointers and free throws.
Why they won't advance
Despite their offensive upgrade, the Bulldogs are still one of the poorer 3-point shooting outfits in the bracket. They ranked 298th in the nation and 15th in the SEC beyond the arc, hitting only 29% against league foes. The inability to spread the floor hindered Mississippi State against the upper echelon of the SEC -- it was 0-6 against teams in the KenPom top 15.
Did you know?
The Bulldogs have earned an NCAA tournament bid in three consecutive seasons for the first time since Rick Stansbury led the program to four in a row from 2002 to 2005. Jans is on the sideline for the sixth time in the past seven tournaments, after guiding New Mexico State to a trio of trips before arriving in Starkville. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 34
Résumé rating: 31
NCAA seed list: 32
Joey Brackets says ...
Mississippi State benefits from the rigors of the SEC and wins its opening-round game against Baylor, but the second weekend remains out of its reach thanks to Duke.
Final field rank: 26
No. 9 Baylor Bears
Why they will advance
Baylor has one of the most talented freshmen in the country in VJ Edgecombe. The Big 12 Freshman of the Year filled up the stat sheet, averaging 15.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.1 steals per game. Combined with Norchad Omier, who leads the team with 15.6 points and 10.7 rebounds per game, the Bears have a dynamic duo driving their offense.
Why they won't advance
The Bears are not exactly coming into the tournament on a high note. They haven't won more than two straight games since winning four in a row in early December. The Bears played the 11th-toughest schedule in the nation, which might have worn them down. They're 5-11 in Quad 1 games, including losing their last five in the regular season.
Did you know?
Baylor coach Scott Drew is one of four coaches in this year's tournament to win a national championship at his current school, along with Dan Hurley (Connecticut), Tom Izzo (Michigan State) and Bill Self (Kansas). Drew and Baylor won the 2021 national title in the tournament that was played entirely in a bubble. -- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 24
Résumé rating: 42
NCAA seed list: 35
Joey Brackets says ...
The Bears have the talent and experience, including on the coaching staff, to make a run, but their best player is a freshman. As a young guard, Edgecombe is not the type of player that typically carries a team in the NCAA tournament. I see them going out early with a loss to Mississippi State.
Final field rank: 42
No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores
Why they will advance
In Mark Byington's first season, Vanderbilt emerged from the college basketball abyss behind a completely overhauled, up-tempo offensive attack. The Commodores jumped 170 spots to 29th in adjusted efficiency, riding electric guard Jason Edwards, steady floor leader AJ Hoggard on the perimeter and Devin McGlockton inside. Tyler Nickel is a pure shooter, hitting 40% of his 3s.
Why they won't advance
The Commodores' lack of interior size proved to be a real problem against the taller SEC frontcourts. Vandy was 16th in the SEC in 2-point defense (and 15th in 3-point defense), finishing dead last against league opponents in adjusted efficiency. If the Commodores aren't forcing turnovers -- a tricky task against NCAA tournament competition -- the points can flow for their foes.
Did you know?
After turning around dormant programs at Georgia Southern and James Madison, Byington made a smooth transition again, leading the Commodores through the nation's strongest conference and into the field for only the third time since 2013. The Commodores have their highest KenPom rating (No. 44) since finishing 33rd in 2017. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 44
Résumé rating: 40
NCAA seed list: 39
Joey Brackets says ...
The long-term future is brighter than ever in Nashville, but the short-term forecast is gloomy. Vandy's return to the Big Dance won't last past Saint Mary's first offensive rebound.
Final field rank: 45
No. 11 VCU Rams
Why they will advance
Ryan Odom's squad brought back its top three scorers, including Atlantic 10 Player of the Year Max Shulga, and it translated into regular-season and conference tournament titles. The Rams are chock full of length and experience and have a serious chip on their shoulder after missing out on the Big Dance a year ago.
Why they won't advance
VCU relies heavily on the 3 to score, getting just over 37% of its points from beyond the arc. The Rams have plenty of capable threats, but all three of their league losses came when opponents shut off the perimeter valve, including a 5-for-30 debacle on senior night against Dayton.
Did you know?
VCU coach Ryan Odom has taken three different programs to an NCAA tournament, joining the likes of Rick Pitino, Tubby Smith and Lon Kruger. Odom's UMBC team became the first 16-seed to knock off a 1-seed back in 2018 when it sent Virginia packing. Five years later, he led Utah State to the dance in his second year with the Aggies. -- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 31
Résumé rating: 45
NCAA seed list: 45
Joey Brackets says ...
If the NCAA had a pension plan based on age, the Rams would be vested. VCU's top five players have combined to play in more than 600 college games. There's no substitute for that kind of experience in March, and Odom's squad has the scoring and defense to go with it. VCU carries the torch into the second round before losing to Wisconsin.
Final field rank: 30
No. 12 Liberty Flames
Why they will advance
The Flames play a similar defense to that of Virginia, where Ritchie McKay was an assistant to Tony Bennett, but this is the best offensive team McKay has had in five years. The Flames rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense and scoring margin. In the nonconference, the Flames won the Paradise Jam, beating Kansas State and McNeese.
Why they won't advance
The most troubling thing about Liberty's losses are the ones to the lower-level teams in CUSA, notably a clunker against Kennesaw State late in the season. The Flames have also been outrebounded for the season and are a mediocre free throw shooting team.
Did you know?
McKay was stung by a huge transfer loss long before the portal even existed. He recruited Seth Curry to Liberty but lost him to Duke after one season, and Steph's little brother went on to a long NBA career. -- Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 50
Résumé rating: 49
NCAA seed list: 50
Joey Brackets says ...
An opponent with quickness can exploit the Flames, and they can't be trusted at the foul line in a close game. Oregon will prove too much for this Liberty squad and send it back to the City of Seven Hills.
Final field rank: 49
No. 13 Akron Zips
Why they will advance
The Zips have lost just one game in 2025, putting together a 14-game winning streak at one point and finishing with seven straight -- punctuated by a heart-stopping 76-74 victory over Miami in the MAC tournament final. Coach John Groce plays practically his whole bench and has 10 players averaging between 6.3 PPG and 13.5 PPG. The Zips share the ball, too, ranking in the top 10 nationally in assists.
Why they won't advance
A bad 3-point shooting night will most likely doom the Zips, and it's not far-fetched because while they are top-10 nationally in 3-point attempts, they are only top-75 in converting them.
Did you know?
Groce beat his half-brother, Travis Steele, the coach of the RedHawks, in that MAC tournament final. He is now 6-1 vs. his brother. -- Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 56
Résumé rating: 50
NCAA seed list: 53
Joey Brackets says ...
This is a live double-figure seed that will be dangerous if it is successful from behind the arc. But put me down as skeptical. I see Akron having a hard time keeping up against Arizona.
Final field rank: 51
No. 14 Montana Grizzlies
Why they will advance
Montana might not blow you away with anything flashy offensively, but the Grizzlies are balanced and efficient. They have four players who average double-digit points and two averaging above 9 a game. As a team, they shoot 57% from the field, ranking 11th nationally. Malik Moore and Te'Jon Sawyer are the most dangerous from 3-point land, both shooting a hair over 41%.
Why they won't advance
While the Grizzlies' offensive efficiency is a positive, they don't have much of a choice as they struggle to give themselves opportunities. The Big Sky champs are weak on the glass. They rank 198th in defensive rebounds, 348th in offensive rebounds and 241st in rebounding margin.
Did you know?
This season Montana guard Brandon Whitney became the school's all-time leader in assists. He surpassed his current coach, Travis DeCuire. -- Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 61
Résumé rating: 56
NCAA seed list: 58
Joey Brackets says ...
Montana will put up a fight, but it won't be advancing in this year's tournament. The Grizzlies have great guards in Joe Pridgen, Brandon Whitney and Money Williams, but their defensive struggles and inability to rebound will have them falling short against Wisconsin.
Final field rank: 56
No. 15 Robert Morris Colonials
Why they will advance
Picked ninth in the 11-team Horizon League, Robert Morris is instead in the Big Dance for the first time in a decade. Its talented starting five consists of double-digit scoring bigs Alvaro Folgueiras and Amarion Dickerson, along with three gritty guards who started their careers elsewhere: Kam Woods (NC State), Josh Omojafo (D-II All-American at Gannon) and DJ Smith (Arkansas-Little Rock and Bowling Green).
Why they won't advance
The Colonials sport a seven-man rotation -- the aforementioned starters, along with sixth man Ryan Prather Jr., an Akron transfer with a net-snapping jumper, and the muscular but undersized big Ismael Plet, who played on Oral Roberts' Sweet 16 team in 2021 and then for Arkansas-Little Rock before Robert Morris. Foul trouble to an indispensable part of the roster (i.e. Folgueiras, Dickerson, Woods or Omojafo) is the way to oust the Colonials.
Did you know?
Once a March Madness regular in the Northeast Conference, Robert Morris moved up in weight class to the Horizon League, and it took first-rate coach Andy Toole five years to build the league's best team. It's a well-balanced unit that features four double-figure scorers, led by the fearless Woods and Folgueiras, a lanky Spaniard who blossomed into the 2025 Horizon Player of the Year. -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 60
Résumé rating: 57
NCAA seed list: 59
Joey Brackets says ...
Robert Morris is white-hot entering the Big Dance, having won 10 straight games and 17 of its past 18. Andy Toole's squad is a hard-nosed, athletic and gritty bunch that won't go down without a fight. But Alabama simply has too much size and skill for the Colonials to deal with and will send the Colonials packing.
Final field rank: 57
No. 16 Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
Why they will advance
Mount St. Mary's has one of the most balanced offenses in the nation, with three active players averaging more than 10 PPG and a fifth sitting at 9.5. The Mountaineers have a solid eight-man rotation and can go nine or 10 deep when needed. Dola Adebayo averages 13.2 points and 6.9 rebounds, is a threat to score from anywhere and is a significant presence on the defensive end as well.
Why they won't advance
The loss of senior forward Terrell Ard Jr., who had season-ending Achilles tendon surgery just over a week ago, is the biggest hindrance in March: He averaged 10.9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists in 21 games this season. While Mount St. Mary's was still able to finish out the MAAC season strong, not having him for the Big Dance is a big loss.
Did you know?
Coach Donny Lind was a graduate manager for the VCU team that advanced to the Final Four in 2011. -- Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 66
Résumé rating: 64
NCAA seed list: 66
Joey Brackets says ...
Mount St. Mary's is a solid squad in all aspects, but it doesn't do anything well enough to pull off an upset in March. Even in the First Four. The Mountaineers played a weak schedule and lost some games they shouldn't have late in the season. In the few games they did play against quality opponents, they did nothing to show they have the stuff to win an NCAA tournament game.
Final field rank: 67
No. 16 American University Eagles
Why they will advance
The Patriot League tournament champions play some of the slowest tempo in the country and live and die by the 3. Most of the guys in coach Duane Simpkins' rotation shoot 33% or better from the outside, led by Patriot tourney MVP and three-level scorer Matt Rogers. Couple that with the nation's 50th most experienced roster and American could give someone a scare.
Why they won't advance
American's biggest offensive strength may also serve as its Achilles' heel. The Eagles get 37% of their points from 3 and simply aren't dynamic enough to sustain a tough shooting night. They also have only three players on the roster taller than 6-7 and struggle against skilled bigs. The lack of height means offensive rebounds are hard to come by.
Did you know?
American won at least 10 conference games in back-to-back seasons for the first time in over a decade. The Eagles are making their fourth NCAA appearance, and the program's first since 2014 when then-head coach Mike Brennan's team bowed out in the second round courtesy of a 40-point blowout at the hands of Bo Ryan and Wisconsin. -- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 65
Résumé rating: 65
NCAA seed list: 65
Joey Brackets says ...
Duane Simpkins has built a strong foundation in just two years in our nation's capital, and Eagles fans should be proud of the program's return to relevance. American's methodical offensive style should be enough to escape Mount St. Mary's in the First Four, but Duke is another story once in the main bracket.
Final field rank: 63
MIDWEST
No. 1 Houston Cougars
Why they will advance
Because you can't score against them. The nation's best defense in terms of points allowed can stop any offense. The Cougars are also a top-10 defense in terms of field goal percentage allowed. They held offensive powerhouses like Auburn, Arizona and BYU to a combined 22 points below their season averages. And the Cougars are hot, having won 22 of their past 23 games.
Why they won't advance
We're picking nits here, but the Cougars are a little undersized. With no regular contributor standing above 6-8, they could run into trouble against a much taller team. The Cougars still finished in the top 40 nationally in rebounding margin, though, so it's not a huge concern.
Did you know?
Houston is the first team to win back-to-back titles in its first two seasons after joining an existing major conference since Idaho in 1923. The Cougars won the Big 12 title by four games, with their only loss in conference play a one-point setback in overtime to Texas Tech. -- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 2
Résumé rating: 2
NCAA seed list: 3
Joey Brackets says ...
We could be looking at a Final Four team (or more!) here. The Cougars have star power and plenty of veteran leadership. A season after seeing their national title hopes disappear when star guard Jamal Shead injured his ankle in the first half of their Sweet 16 loss to Duke, the Cougars have the depth to advance across the state to San Antonio. They could even be playing Monday night for the national championship.
Final field rank: 2
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers
Why they will advance
For a fifth consecutive season, Tennessee is fierce and physical and enters the NCAA tournament ranked in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Vols also lead the nation in effective field goal percentage allowed and 3-point percentage allowed while ranking fifth in block rate. Chaz Lanier is one of the nation's best shooters, and Zakai Zeigler is a proven floor leader and defensive pest.
Why they won't advance
Rick Barnes rules the regular season, but March has been less kind to the veteran coach. Despite being top 10 in KenPom in five of the past seven seasons, the Volunteers have advanced beyond the Sweet 16 only once. Suspect 3-point accuracy (34.3%) and a deliberate pace (346th adjusted tempo) almost ensure rock fights that can go either way in the final minutes.
Did you know?
Zeigler set the school record for single-season assists with his 228th in the Vols' win over Texas in the SEC tournament quarterfinals. A starter in three of his four seasons in Knoxville, he led the SEC in assist rate in conference games (41.9). He matched his career high with 15 assists in a game against Ole Miss on March 5. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 5
Résumé rating: 5
NCAA seed list: 5
Joey Brackets says ...
The Vols' defense and backcourt firepower is enough to reach the Sweet 16, but the program's first Final Four trip will remain out of reach following a loss to Illinois.
Final field rank: 9
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats
Why they will advance
The roster first-year coach Mark Pope built from scratch in the offseason possesses a key trait required to navigate the bracket: proven veterans. The Wildcats are seventh in the nation in experience. Victories over Duke, Gonzaga, Tennessee (twice) and Florida proved their best ball is elite. Otega Oweh can score at will, and Lamont Butler is an elite defender and bucket getter.
Why they won't advance
Kentucky's defense vanished too often, allowing at least 1.2 points per possession in nine games. It's no surprise the Wildcats dropped six of those contests. Defending the rim is Kentucky's biggest issue. Opponents made 53.4% of 2-point field goals (283rd), and the Wildcats are one of the nation's 30 worst teams when it comes to forcing turnovers.
Did you know?
The Wildcats are looking for their first trip to the tournament's second weekend since an Elite Eight trip in 2019. The heat from the barren postseasons was the main reason John Calipari departed the Bluegrass State. The natives love Pope, an alum and the captain of the 1995-96 UK squad that won the national championship. They expect him to erase their lingering March blues. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 15
Résumé rating: 9
NCAA seed list: 11
Joey Brackets says ...
Kentucky is a dangerous squad, and, assuming Butler and Oweh are healthy, it's easy to envision an Elite Eight run. But the Wildcats' defensive deficiencies will end their season well shy of that against Illinois in the second round.
Final field rank: 19
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers
Why they will advance
There was indeed life after 7-4 Zach Edey for Purdue basketball and coach Matt Painter, one of the nation's finest sideline maestros. Helping Painter deliver yet another Big Dance invite was the combo platter of one of the more reliable floor generals in the college game in Braden Smith, along with a crafty low-post scorer in Trey Kaufman-Renn (19.7 PPG).
Why they won't advance
The Boilermakers were fatigued and struggled mightily down the stretch, ending the regular season by losing five of their last seven games. They led in four of those five losses, but suffered second-half collapses against Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin and Illinois. That late-season skid has to rattle this team's confidence heading into the NCAAs.
Did you know?
Don't let his Civil War reenactor's beard fool you; Smith can really play. He's the first player in NCAA history with at least 1,250 points, 700 assists and 500 rebounds before his senior season. He is a one-man stat-sheet-stuffer, as he averaged 16.3 points, 8.8 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 2.3 steals on the season while making 39.7% of his 3s. -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 18
Résumé rating: 22
NCAA seed list: 14
Joey Brackets says ...
Purdue has a troika of double-digit scorers in Kaufman-Renn, Smith and Fletcher Loyer. But the Boilermakers have looked like a tired bunch over the past few weeks. The start of the Big Dance will provide them with a fresh jolt of energy, but it says here that High Point will send the Boilers to their latest first-round exit just a year after playing in the title game.
Final field rank: 33
No. 5 Clemson Tigers
Why they will advance
After making an Elite Eight run last March, Clemson has the traits to make a deep Bracketville foray again: namely, an excellent coach in Brad Brownell, an experienced starting five and a balance even Simone Biles might envy. The starting five features four double-figure scorers in guards Chase Hunter and Jaeden Zackery as well as big men Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lakhin.
Why they won't advance
Lakhin, literally the big man on Clemson's campus at 6-11 and 245 pounds, is a living, breathing mood ring for the Tigers. When he's on his game, the Tigers are tough to beat, with arguably the ACC's best backcourt (Hunter and Zackery) and crafty Schieffelin. But Lakhin has had 11 games this season with single-digit scoring, including in losses to South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Louisville.
Did you know?
Sixth-year player Hunter began his Clemson career in November 2019 and will leave as one of the school's top career scorers. He has also been at Clemson longer than 13 of the 17 current head coaches in the ACC. -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 16
Résumé rating: 18
NCAA seed list: 18
Joey Brackets says ...
Clemson will be a tough out in the Big Dance for a second straight March. The Tigers are experienced and well-coached and possess trustworthy guards (led by Hunter). Those three ingredients are critical for March success. Brownell's bunch is a decent bet to make it out of the first weekend before losing to Houston in the Sweet 16.
Final field rank: 12
No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini
Why they will advance
Illinois is finally 100 percent healthy, which isn't great news for teams in this region. Its offense, ranked 15th by KenPom's efficiency metrics, is one of the nation's best despite being led by a trio of first-year college players in Kasparas Jakucionis, Will Riley and Tomislav Ivisic. The Illini's defense (No. 30 KenPom), anchored by Ivisic and lockdown defender Kylan Boswell, isn't too shabby either.
Why they won't advance
Illinois averages nearly 84 PPG despite being one of the nation's most inaccurate 3-point shooting teams (31.0%). That woeful percentage includes a 2-for-26 3-point clunker against Duke. Yet the Illini clearly have an "if at first you don't succeed, try, try again" belief about the arc. Illinois finished the regular season fourth nationally in most 3-point attempts per game (30.3).
Did you know?
With the Rutgers duo of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey not in the field of 68, the Big Ten's highest-ranked 2025 NBA prospect in the Big Dance is Jakucionis, a projected top-10 pick. The Lithuanian sensation is a ball screen maestro, sees the court clearly in transition and consistently knocks down 2-point shots both off the catch and off pull-ups. -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 22
Résumé rating: 26
NCAA seed list: 22
Joey Brackets says ...
With rebounding demon Morez Johnson Jr.'s wrist healed and the upper respiratory issues that plagued multiple Illinois players gone, the Illini could make a run in this region. Brad Underwood is a proven March winner. His team is deep and features rapidly rising NBA prospects Jakucionis and Riley. We see Illinois making its second Elite Eight in a row.
Final field rank: 8
No. 7 UCLA Bruins
Why they will advance
Mick Cronin's club features two double-digit scorers in All-Big Ten performer Tyler Bilodeau and workaholic wing Eric Dailey Jr., plus five others who average between 6.3 and 9.8 PPG. Cronin isn't everyone's best friend, but he can flat-out coach. He's the youngest active head coach to reach 500 wins and has taken the Bruins to three Sweet 16s and one Final Four (2021).
Why they won't advance
Bilodeau and Dailey both sink 41% of their 3-point tries, but they are outliers on a UCLA team that is an inconsistent shooting bunch. Its ugliest display of the season was a 14.3% shooting performance beyond the arc against Nebraska -- no, that's not a typo. If the Bruins have a night when their outside aim is unsightly, it'll be season over for Cronin's squad.
Did you know?
In its first Big Ten season, UCLA has already topped the 29,000-mile mark in air travel. And the Bruins will only add to that eye-popping total when they head to their first-round NCAA tournament site. No wonder Cronin went on the now-infamous "We've seen the Statue of Liberty twice in three weeks" rant when asked about travel back in mid-January. -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 27
Résumé rating: 28
NCAA seed list: 25
Joey Brackets says ...
Cronin can really X and O. But this season's Bruins have two major warts: (1) They shoot 35.4% from 3 as a team, and (2) their primary centers are tall but lack mobility, forcing Cronin into drop coverage in high ball-screen situations. Those two imperfections will eventually be UCLA's undoing. My guess is the Bruins' season will end in the second round against Tennessee.
Final field rank: 22
No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Why they will advance
The Zags' offense is sharp and efficient, propelled by point guard Ryan Nembhard. His work as a creator -- leading the NCAA in assists per game -- works perfectly as a complement to Graham Ike, a scorer on the block. Gonzaga can score with anyone in this tournament.
Why they won't advance
Gonzaga is 0-7 this season in games decided by six or fewer points or in overtime. Maybe that is a weird quirk of having a pass-first primary playmaker. Maybe, as the analytics junkies might argue, it's "bad luck" due to regression positively. Either way, the Zags have struggled in crunch time all season.
Did you know?
The consistency of Mark Few's program can't be praised enough. The last year in which the Bulldogs did not reach the second weekend of March Madness was 2014. The last time Gonzaga did not win at least one tournament game was 2008. The only other teams to even make every tournament in that stretch are Michigan State and Kansas. -- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 9
Résumé rating: 32
NCAA seed list: 30
Joey Brackets says ...
This Zags team has failed to build the same résumé as in previous years, but is still dangerous. KenPom's predictive metrics rate Gonzaga as a top-10 team in the nation. Every high seed prayed it would avoid Gonzaga in its pod. The Bulldogs will win once and offer quite a challenge to Houston in the second round before suffering a first-weekend exit for the first time in nearly a decade.
Final field rank: 24
No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs
Why they will advance
Proven program builder Mike White has taken the Bulldogs from 154th in KenPom to 35th in just three seasons, relying on a rugged defense. A future NBA lottery pick in Asa Newell, a dominant post scorer who can also step out and bury a 3, has also helped this season. The Bulldogs have positional size and elite rim protection, fielding a top-30 defense that generated victories over the high-octane offenses of Florida and Kentucky.
Why they won't advance
March success can revolve around the backcourt, and while the Bulldogs are big and solid, they lack the shot creation and one-on-one scoring ability a coach would like to have. Georgia failed to score one point per possession in seven of its losses this season, and putrid 3-point shooting was a recurring issue. The Bulldogs made double-digit 3s only twice against SEC competition.
Did you know?
Georgia is back in the bracket for the first time since 2015 -- a span of three coaches -- and only the fourth time since 2002. On a campus known for producing NFL talent by the dozen, Dominique Wilkins, a nine-time NBA All-Star who averaged 21.6 points per game during three seasons from 1979 to 1982, is the most famous Bulldogs hoops alum. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 35
Résumé rating: 37
NCAA seed list: 34
Joey Brackets says ...
Georgia can win its opening game in the tournament behind Newell's dominance and the stifling defense. But the dream more likely ends quickly against another set of Bulldogs from Gonzaga.
Final field rank: 41
No. 10 Utah State Aggies
Why they will advance
Washington gave former Mountain West Player of the Year Great Osobor 2 million reasons Utah State shouldn't have won this year. But the Aggies used some of the most efficient offense in the country to rip off 25 wins, led by a veteran backcourt of Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev that enjoyed the taste of a tournament victory this time a year ago.
Why they won't advance
Back-to-back blowouts on the road at Boise State and Colorado State during the penultimate week of the regular season left many wondering if the Aggies might be a paper tiger. Their defensive numbers scream average, and for as much as they score, it won't mask their warts at the other end of the floor.
Did you know?
Last year's opening-round victory over TCU marked Utah State's first NCAA tournament win in 13 years. The Aggies are making their fifth tourney appearance in the past seven years but have bowed out in the opening round in four of those five. Before 2024, USU's last victory came in 2011, overcoming an 11-point halftime deficit to stun Kansas State in Tucson. -- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 45
Résumé rating: 35
NCAA seed list: 40
Joey Brackets says ...
Utah State's last couple of weeks of the regular season suggest that the Aggies are entering the Big Dance running on fumes. Their defensive numbers simply aren't good enough, and with no Osobor on offense to lean on this year, it's more likely than not that their stay will be a short one. UCLA takes them out.
Final field rank: 46
No. 11 Texas Longhorns
Why they will advance
Texas has high-end, next-level talent and the ability to match any opponent's personnel -- a fact confirmed by its four wins over KenPom top-20 opponents, including a double-overtime thriller over hated rival Texas A&M in the SEC tournament that secured the Longhorns their NCAA bid. Tre Johnson is the clear star of the show, and he has proven veterans like Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark around him.
Why they won't advance
Texas is too inconsistent on offense, especially its 2-point shooting, which is among the worst in the SEC and 146th in the nation. Considering the Longhorns score only 29% of their points on 3-pointers (253rd), their inconsistency from inside the arc could lead to more of the long scoring droughts that plagued them throughout the regular season.
Did you know?
Despite all of the NBA talent that has made its way to Austin over the past 20 years (Kevin Durant, Myles Turner, Jarrett Allen), the Longhorns have reached the NCAA tournament's second weekend only once since 2008 -- when Rodney Terry took them there as the interim coach in 2023, ultimately earning himself the long-term position. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 38
Résumé rating: 48
NCAA seed list: 41
Joey Brackets says ...
Texas will have to two-step its way right on back to Austin after falling short once again in the first round. Xavier does the Longhorns dirty in Dayton.
Final field rank: 65
No. 11 Xavier Musketeers
Why they will advance
Once on the bad side of the bubble, Xavier enters the NCAA tournament as one of the hottest teams in college basketball. The Musketeers finished the regular season with seven straight wins, largely due to hot shooting. During that stretch and through their narrow Big East quarterfinal loss, Ryan Conwell sank 51% of his 3-point attempts, propelling the offense.
Why they won't advance
Xavier lacks the size to win a battle on the interior. Zach Freemantle, a modern stretch 4, plays most of the minutes at center, creating mismatches offensively but leaving holes around the rim defensively. The Musketeers allow too many easy or unchallenged looks in the paint.
Did you know?
Xavier's roster is the second-most experienced in Division I, per KenPom. The Musketeers average 3.54 years of experience, trailing only Kansas. Sean Miller's eight-man rotation features six fifth-year seniors. -- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 37
Résumé rating: 47
NCAA seed list: 42
Joey Brackets says ...
Every season, a team that plays in Dayton moves on and wins in the round of 64. Why not the red-hot Musketeers? The mix of talent, experience and coaching prowess for the Musketeers makes them a dangerous entry to the field, priming them for an opening-round win over Texas.
Final field rank: 47
No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
Why they will advance
Defense. Defense. Defense. McNeese is not just one of the best mid-major defensive teams in the country, it's one of the best defensive teams in the country, period. The Cowboys allow just 64 points per game. They rank 31st in turnovers forced per game and 24th in field goal percentage defense. Their ability to get stops could put a scare into any tournament team.
Why they won't advance
McNeese has no glaring issues. It is strong both offensively and defensively, it has depth, it has experience and it is well coached. However, the Cowboys haven't been tested enough this season. They played some tough games early but still stand 203rd in strength of schedule according to KenPom. Without any quality tests late in the season, it will be hard for the Southland champs to advance.
Did you know?
Will Wade is 49-8 in his two years at McNeese, including a 36-2 record in the Southland Conference. He enjoyed similar early success during previous stints at Chattanooga and, particularly, VCU, where he led the Rams to a share of the A-10 regular-season title in his first season. -- Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 49
Résumé rating: 51
NCAA seed list: 49
Joey Brackets says ...
McNeese was tasked with a tough first-round matchup last year against Duke and came up short. That experience could propel this season's talented Cowboys squad in March. The back-to-back Southland champs have a chance to knock off Clemson in the first round this year, but come up a bit short before Wade skips town.
Final field rank: 48
No. 13 High Point Panthers
Why they will advance
High Point has the right stuff to bust a bracket this time of year. The Panthers are loaded with talented transfers and possess the nation's 26th best offense, fueled by powerful three-level scorer D'Maurian Williams, shifty guard Kezza Giffa and slashing forward Kimani Hamilton. They made 37% of their 3-pointers and two-time Big South defensive player of the year Juslin Bodo Bodo protects the rim.
Why they won't advance
The Panthers are making a significant step up in competition after outclassing the Big South with superior talent and overwhelming depth. High Point played the No. 332 nonconference strength of schedule and is appearing in the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history. The nation's longest winning streak (14 games) is likely in jeopardy.
Did you know?
High Point trailed Winthrop by 15 points early in the second half of the Big South title game when coach Alan Huss turned to his deep bench, summoned five substitutes and demanded defensive pressure. The Panthers responded with a 21-4 run to seize the lead and cruise to an 81-69 victory. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 52
Résumé rating: 52
NCAA seed list: 52
Joey Brackets says ...
Huss has done a remarkable job building the High Point program in just two seasons. Its potent offense will make things interesting. And the Panthers are playing a Purdue opponent that hasn't always fared well in "interesting" tourney openers. Smells like a big upset from here.
Final field rank: 32
No. 14 Troy Trojans
Why they will advance
Defense. Troy ranks 27th in scoring defense nationally and 14th in steals. While Sun Belt Player of the Year Tayton Conerway is a do-it-all player, he particularly shines on the defensive end, ranking third in the country in steals. Troy scored 94 points in its Sun Belt championship win against Arkansas State, but that defense is its calling card.
Why they won't advance
Steals are great, but they're not so helpful when you hand it right back to your opponent, and Troy tends to do just that. Only 40 teams turn the ball over more than the Trojans, who turned it over 24 times in a single game this season and averaged 13.5 turnovers per game. Loose hands at the Dance will always get you sent home early.
Did you know?
Troy hasn't won the Sun Belt since 2017, but it is the only Sun Belt program to win 20 games in the past three seasons and 10 league games in each of the past four seasons. -- Brendan Farrell
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 55
Résumé rating: 59
NCAA seed list: 56
Joey Brackets says ...
Troy has one of the top defenses in the country and a more than adequate offense. However, the Trojans struggle to take care of the ball and can go quiet on offense, especially against power-conference teams. Against Arkansas, Oregon and Houston, Troy averaged 19 turnovers and just 50.1 points. Although it's a small sample size, it's enough to conclude Troy won't escape Kentucky in the first round.
Final field rank: 54
No. 15 Wofford Terriers
Why they will advance
Wofford lets it fly often from long range, with 48% of its field-goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. A quartet of Terriers buried at least 50 3-pointers against D-I opponents this season and Corey Tripp is exactly the tough, veteran guard an upset-minded squad needs: he made 36% of his 3s, 50% of his 2s and 82% of his free throws and assisted on 23% of Wofford's field goals.
Why they won't advance
While the offense is explosive, ranking 67th in efficiency, the Terriers are allowing the nation's 220th highest 2-point rate and rarely ending possessions by forcing turnovers. They have only two players taller than 6-6 in the eight-man rotation, which should lead to easy baskets and putbacks for their opponent.
Did you know?
This is Wofford's sixth NCAA tournament appearance since it joined Division I in 1996, and the last time the Terriers were here (2019) they won a game, defeating Seton Hall by 16 points. That team rolled through the Southern Conference unbeaten, but this year's squad won the tournament title as a surprising 6-seed. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 58
Résumé rating: 63
NCAA seed list: 60
Joey Brackets says ...
Wofford played its best basketball of the season in three thrilling Southern Conference tournament victories, but the undersized Terriers' ride will end with a thud in a first-round loss to Tennessee.
Final field rank: 58
No. 16 SIU Edwardsville Cougars
Why they will advance
Ray'Sean Taylor would have to have a Harold "The Show'' Arceneaux moment (google it). A four-year starter who has overcome two ACL injuries to become SIUE's all-time leading scorer, the 6-2 guard will need to carry his team in the school's first NCAA tournament appearance.
Why they won't advance
The Cougars won the OVC tournament but have been mostly ordinary -- or worse. Heck, they lost to Green Bay, one of the worst teams in the country.
Did you know?
When coach Brian Barone took over in 2019, he framed a pair of scissors and hung it in the locker room as motivation; the scissors would be used to cut down the nets after winning an OVC title. The team broke the glass and did just that on March 8. -- Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 64
Résumé rating: 66
NCAA seed list: 64
Joey Brackets says ...
SIUE isn't even the best team in the OVC -- that would be Southeast Missouri State, except for one night. The Cougars will be overmatched in the first round by their fellow Cougars from Houston.
Final field rank: 62
WEST
No. 1 Florida Gators
Why they will advance
Florida enters the tournament ranked top 10 in the nation in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency and has spent the past month overwhelming elite opponents with its pace, size and dynamic backcourt. Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin just might be the nation's best backcourt, combining to make more than 160 3-pointers, while Alex Condon's versatility in the frontcourt causes trouble for opponents.
Why they won't advance
There aren't many holes in a deep rotation that features height, speed and shooting, but if the Gators are in a tight game late, the free throw line could be an issue. Florida hit just 71% of its attempts from the line (225th). It also lacks recent success in the NCAA tournament, considering its first-round exit last year and no second-weekend appearances since 2018.
Did you know?
Clayton, who started his college career playing for Rick Pitino at Iona, is on a short list of players who have made at least 80 2-pointers, 3-pointers and free throws this season. Backcourt mate Martin can share stories of March success with his teammates, too. He played a pivotal role for Florida Atlantic during its surprising run to the Final Four in 2023. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 4
Résumé rating: 3
NCAA seed list: 4
Joey Brackets says ...
Florida has what it takes to win the program's first national championship since Billy Donovan led it to back-to-back titles in 2006 and 2007. The Gators will make it to San Antonio and, once there, could and should be the last team standing. Say hello to your 2025 NCAA champions.
Final field rank: 1
No. 2 St. John's Red Storm
Why they will advance
Rick Pitino has created a monster on the defensive end of the floor. The Johnnies boast one of the most intense, versatile and tenacious defenses in college basketball, posting the best defensive efficiency metric in conference play of any Big East team since the conference realigned in 2014.
Why they won't advance
The other end of the court presents plenty of challenges for the Red Storm. St. John's shot just 26.8% from outside the arc in conference play, the worst mark in the Big East or any power conference. Inside the arc wasn't much better, nor was the free throw line. St. John's tosses up a ton of misses and relies on the offensive glass to score.
Did you know?
St. John's is the sixth school Pitino has led to the Big Dance, a record for any coach in tournament history. He has taken three of those schools to the Final Four -- tying him with longtime foe John Calipari for the record. -- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 13
Résumé rating: 8
NCAA seed list: 8
Joey Brackets says ...
St. John's won't be eliminated from this tournament without putting up a heck of a fight. Whoever can send the Johnnies packing will move on bruised and battered. Their elite defense should spur a trip to the second weekend, but the lack of scoring punch will send the Red Storm home in the Sweet 16.
Final field rank: 10
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Why they will advance
JT Toppin leads a star-studded lineup. Only a sophomore, he is the only player in the Big 12's top three teams in both scoring (18.1 PPG) and rebounding (9.3 RPG) and had 14 double-doubles during the regular season. Toppin is also the first Big 12 player to win Player and Newcomer of the Year in the same season.
Why they won't advance
It's hard to find a weakness for the Red Raiders. They finished in the top-3 in multiple offensive categories in the Big 12 regular season, including points, field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage and free-throw percentage. It might be nitpicky, but Tech was only seventh in the conference in rebounding, though it was fifth in rebounding margin.
Did you know?
Toppin is not related to Obi Toppin, the former University of Dayton forward who didn't get his opportunity to make waves in the NCAA tournament when the 2020 edition was canceled because of Covid-19. JT Toppin does have three siblings, but they're all younger. -- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 7
Résumé rating: 11
NCAA seed list: 9
Joey Brackets says ...
The Red Raiders are a threat to advance out of their region, though I'm stopping just short of predicting that. They were picked seventh in the Big 12 preseason coaches' poll but surprised everyone by finishing second. They're no longer a surprise, and coach Grant McCasland has them ready to play, which they will do until Florida ends their excellent season in the Elite Eight.
Final field rank: 6
No. 4 Maryland Terrapins
Why they will advance
Kevin Willard's Terrapins feature a balanced attack, led by 6-10 freshman Derik Queen, the second-highest-rated recruit ever to sign with the school. All five starters -- Queen, 6-9 senior forward Julian Reese, 6-1 junior guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie, 6-4 sophomore guard Rodney Rice and 6-4 senior guard Selton Miguel -- average at least 12 points per game.
Why they won't advance
No team in the field of 68 asks for more from its starting five than Maryland. Don't believe it? Well, the Terps averaged 81.5 points per contest during the regular season, with the starters accounting for 69.5 of those points. An injury or early foul trouble could be problematic as a Terps sub would be thrust into a much bigger role.
Did you know?
After Maryland averaged just 69 PPG on 28.9% shooting from 3 last season, Willard's portal shopping list was short and sweet: perimeter shooters to mesh with bigs Queen and Reese. Mission accomplished, as Maryland signed three guards who are shooting 36.3% or better from behind the arc: Gillespie (Belmont), Rice (Virginia Tech) and Miguel (USF). -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 12
Résumé rating: 19
NCAA seed list: 15
Joey Brackets says ...
Maryland is playing its best basketball. Its starting five is expertly constructed with three fearless shooters, an underrated forward in Reese (brother of WNBA star Angel Reese) and a truly unique center in mature-beyond-his-years Queen. This team is built to make a Big Dance run, and it'll likely take a blue blood to end the Terps' season. Unfortunately for Maryland, that figures to be Florida in the Sweet 16.
Final field rank: 11
No. 5 Memphis Tigers
Why they will advance
Penny Hardaway's club does everything fast. The Tigers play up-tempo, attack the paint with their speed and swarm opposing ball handlers. Memphis can do so thanks to the glut of talent on the roster, including a handful of power-conference-experienced transfers.
Why they won't advance
The Tigers' run-and-gun attack can turn sloppy quickly, resulting in self-inflicted mistakes. Memphis was the most turnover-prone team in the AAC, even while dominating the conference. The Tigers also shot just 68.2% from the free throw line in conference play, a red flag in tightly contested NCAA tournament games.
Did you know?
AAC leading scorer PJ Haggerty has been incredibly consistent, reaching 15 or more points in all but one game this season. He has topped 20 points 41 times in the past two seasons. -- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 47
Résumé rating: 17
NCAA seed list: 20
Joey Brackets says ...
Memphis has fallen under the radar in recent months. In the nonconference schedule, the Tigers notched wins over Michigan State, UConn, Missouri, Clemson and Ole Miss before starting play versus a mediocre AAC slate. The Tigers have the talent to win a game in the Big Dance, but the run stops against a very hot Colorado State team.
Final field rank: 35
No. 6 Missouri Tigers
Why they will advance
Offense is certainly an asset in March, and not many are more explosive than the one Dennis Gates created in Columbia this season. The Tigers are fifth in adjusted efficiency, equally accurate from 2-point and 3-point range. Mark Mitchell missed the SEC tournament loss to Florida but is expected to play in the NCAAs, and he's a problem in the paint. Tamar Bates, Caleb Grill and Anthony Robinson can match any backcourt.
Why they won't advance
The Tigers' defense took a significant step backward late in the season, leading to five losses in seven games entering the NCAA tournament. Missouri allowed 90 points or more in each game, unable to consistently force turnovers or stop opposing frontcourts from controlling the lane.
Did you know?
Gates has Missouri in the NCAA tournament for the second time in his three seasons on the sidelines, after orchestrating one of the nation's best turnarounds in the nation's strongest conference. One year after an 0-18 SEC mark, the Tigers went 10-8 in the league and tied for fifth place, defeating Florida and Alabama along the way. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 20
Résumé rating: 29
NCAA seed list: 23
Joey Brackets says ...
Missouri has what it takes on the offensive end of the floor to overwhelm anyone. But the Tigers' porous defense ends their stay quickly against disciplined, efficient Drake in the first round.
Final field rank: 37
No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks
Why they will advance
The Jayhawks are one of the most experienced and talented teams in the tournament, with double-double machine Hunter Dickinson in the middle and 2022 national champions Dajuan Harris Jr. at the point and KJ Adams Jr. bringing the energy. They added plenty of veteran transfers, as well, which is one reason they were selected as the preseason No. 1 team in the country.
Why they won't advance
Kansas doesn't have an "alpha dog," someone coach Bill Self can count on to score in clutch moments. As a result, it has lost several close games down the stretch, even at home. The most notable example was when Harris was shooting free throws with a six-point lead with 18 seconds left in overtime against Houston, only for KU to lose in double overtime.
Did you know?
This is the first time in Self's 22 seasons (21 tournaments because of the COVID-19 cancellation in 2020) that the Jayhawks have been selected lower than a No. 4 seed. But this year has been consistently inconsistent. The Jayhawks also saw an 80-week streak of being in the AP Top 25 end in February. -- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 17
Résumé rating: 25
NCAA seed list: 28
Joey Brackets says ...
Kansas has the talent to make a deep run in March, but I don't see it this year. The Jayhawks have lost in the second round in four of the past five tournaments, with the 2022 national championship the aberration. This year's team will follow the recent trend with a win over Arkansas and a loss to St. John's.
Final field rank: 23
No. 8 UConn Huskies
Why they will advance
It's been a season of ups and downs in Storrs, but if you evaluate the Huskies as they enter the Big Dance, you have to like their chances. Since Dec. 1, with Liam McNeeley healthy and in the lineup, UConn is 13-3. The freshman wing stabilizes Dan Hurley's offensive game plan and makes the Huskies so much more dangerous. Connecticut peaking just in time for March? Sounds familiar.
Why they won't advance
Defensively, UConn has major problems, starting with a hack-happy roster. The Huskies rank 325th nationally in free throw rate allowed, with opponents taking 22 freebies per game. They challenge everything at the rim, posting eye-popping block rates, but far too often make contact and send opponents to the charity stripe.
Did you know?
UConn looks for a third straight title this March. How did prior three-peat attempts pan out? In 1993, Duke was bounced in the round of 32 by Jason Kidd's Cal Bears. In 2008, the back-to-back champion Florida Gators made a deep run -- in the NIT, having not even made the tourney. -- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 29
Résumé rating: 36
NCAA seed list: 31
Joey Brackets says ...
A team playing mostly good basketball at the right time, with a coach who knows how to win in March, is a recipe for a run. UConn's seed reflects its roller-coaster regular season, but Hurley will have his guys on the gas pedal now. The Huskies will make a little noise against Oklahoma before Florida ends all thoughts of a three-peat.
Final field rank: 25
No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners
Why they will advance
Oklahoma can shoot it, ranking in the top 60 in 2-point, 3-point and free throw percentage. The Sooners have a takeover guard in high-volume freshman Jeremiah Fears, who enters the tournament with three 28-point or better outings in the past four games. Jalon Moore and Duke Miles are knockdown shooters. The health of Sam Godwin -- who injured his knee March 5 and hasn't played since -- is a concern.
Why they won't advance
The Sooners are soft in the middle, ranking in the bottom 100 in the nation in 2-point defense and defensive rebounding. This glaring weakness caused them to struggle against top-tier competition. Their résumé was padded by early-season wins over Arizona and Louisville, teams that had not yet hit their respective strides. A home win over Missouri was their only other defeat of a KenPom top-25 opponent.
Did you know?
Coach Porter Moser finally got Oklahoma to the NCAA tournament in his fourth season in Norman, but he became March Madness royalty in 2018 when he steered No. 11 seed Loyola Chicago to one of the most memorable Final Four runs of all time. He backed that up by taking the Ramblers back to the Sweet 16 three years later. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 41
Résumé rating: 38
NCAA seed list: 36
Joey Brackets says ...
Fears can scare an opposing coach, but the Sooners' defense can be frightening at times itself and is likely to produce a first-round departure. Beating Danny Hurley is a tough ask for your first tourney trip in four years.
Final field rank: 43
No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks
Why they will advance
John Calipari's squad endured injuries to multiple key players and a rigorous SEC schedule to return to March Madness after a one-year absence. Boogie Fland started the first 18 games at point guard and led the team in scoring and assists before injuring his hand against Florida on Jan. 11. He hasn't played since, but he has been practicing and will play against Kansas.
Why they won't advance
It's difficult to expect any player to be sharp after a two-month absence, and the Razorbacks have other personnel concerns. Adou Thiero (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG) was Arkansas' first option in Fland's absence, but he's doubtful to play in the first round due to a knee injury. Versatile big man Zvonimir Ivisic also suffered a hand injury in the SEC tournament loss to Ole Miss.
Did you know?
Calipari, who played 25 games for NCAA tournament participant UNC Wilmington, is leading a fourth program to the NCAA tournament. He led UMass to the Final Four, reached the national finals with Memphis and guided Kentucky to the championship in 2012. Arkansas, the 1994 national champion, made back-to-back Elite Eight appearances under Eric Musselman in 2022 and 2023. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 50
Résumé rating: 39
NCAA seed list: 37
Joey Brackets says ...
Fland's return might give Arkansas the boost (and scoring) it desperately needs. Or not. The Razorbacks actually played better for a while after his injury. In a matchup of underachievers from the 2024-25 season, the Hogs go home first. Kansas still has better personnel.
Final field rank: 37
No. 11 Drake Bulldogs
Why they will advance
Point guard Bennett Stirtz (19.1 PPG, 5.6 APG) is the puppet master, leading the country in minutes played (39.2 per game) while orchestrating a slo-mo offense that can frustrate opponents deep into the shot clock. The Bulldogs combine that deliberate style with tough man-to-man coverage to limit teams to 58.4 PPG.
Why they won't advance
The slow offensive pace can be a double-edged sword, making it difficult for the Bulldogs to overtake their opponent if they fall behind early. This team has to play with a lead.
Did you know?
Coach Ben McCollum always wears a white dress shirt and blue tie because he has difficulty matching shirt and tie colors. Now, Drake fans have adopted the look. And for those with a limited wardrobe, the campus bookstore sells white T-shirts with the image of a blue tie on the front. -- Joe Sullivan
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 48
Résumé rating: 34
NCAA seed list: 44
Joey Brackets says ...
Drake is a dangerous team with an unusual strategy that could upend one opponent, maybe even two. The Sweet 16 is possible, but we'll split the difference and give the Bulldogs one win over Missouri before Texas Tech takes them out.
Final field rank: 29
No. 12 Colorado State Rams
Why they will advance
Colorado State punched its Big Dance ticket with a 69-56 win over Boise State in the Mountain West title game. There's not a hotter team in the field than the Rams, winners of 10 straight contests. NBA prospect Nique Clifford (18.8 PPG) is clearly the go-to guy, but Jalen Lake (11.3 PPG) and Kyan Evans (10.5 PPG) can score, too.
Why they won't advance
The Rams started the season off with a 5-5 mark, including blowout losses to brand names Ole Miss and Colorado as well as close losses to VCU, Washington and UC Riverside. Colorado State must start fast, and the team's most indispensable players (i.e., Clifford, Lake, Evans, Jaylen Crocker-Johnson) must avoid foul trouble.
Did you know?
Clifford might not be a household name, but NBA scouts know all about him. He tested the NBA waters after last season, but draft projections on him varied widely, so he returned to CSU, worked on the NBA scouts' to-do list and is now projected as a top-40 pick. -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 42
Résumé rating: 46
NCAA seed list: 48
Joey Brackets says ...
Colorado State enters the Big Dance riding a 10-game winning streak. Plus, the Rams have an elite player in Clifford and one of the nation's most underrated coaches in Niko Medved. This squad won a First Four game last year vs. Virginia before losing to Texas. Pencil the Rams in for a first-round win over Memphis before they fall to Maryland.
Final field rank: 31
No. 13 Grand Canyon Lopes
Why they will advance
Coach Bryce Drew has the Lopes back in the Big Dance for a third straight year with some of the nation's fastest offense. GCU brought back a good chunk of its core from the team that won 30 games a season ago and upset Saint Mary's in the Big Dance, including first-team All-WAC selection and 2024 league Player of the Year Tyon Grant-Foster.
Why they won't advance
The Lopes don't take great care of the basketball, rating in the bottom 95 in Division I in turnover percentage. In an era dominated by analytics and the 3-point shot, they also don't shoot from the outside much -- or, frankly, all that well. That's cause for concern if Drew's squad digs itself an early hole and has to come back from a big deficit.
Did you know?
Drew has won an NCAA tournament game as both a player and a coach. His game-winning 3-pointer against Ole Miss back in 1998 helped Valparaiso to its first-ever tourney win and spearheaded a run to the Sweet 16. The six-year NBA vet has also taken three different programs to the Big Dance since becoming a head coach. -- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 53
Résumé rating: 54
NCAA seed list: 54
Joey Brackets says ...
There's no substitute for experience in March, and the WAC tourney champs have plenty of it. GCU's wins over Stanford and Saint Louis and a blowout of America East champ and fellow tourney participant Bryant suggest it won't bend to anyone. Grand Canyon gives Maryland all it can handle before bowing out.
Final field rank: 52
No. 14 UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Why they will advance
UNCW has a resilient, experienced rotation featuring two efficient big men and a rotating cast of athletic wings. Donovan Newby, the CAA tournament MVP, is the point guard and leader. He delivered clutch baskets late in the CAA semifinal and final, hit 70 3-pointers this season and is money at the free throw line (18-of-18 in the CAA tourney).
Why they won't advance
The Seahawks might not possess the requisite 3-point firepower all around to pull a first-round stunner. UNCW shot 33% from beyond the arc (215th) and scored only 27% of its points on 3s (305th), making 10 or more in just four games vs. Division I opponents. Nolan Hodge cooked late, though, hitting 9 of 17 3s over the final six games heading into the NCAA tournament.
Did you know?
Takayo Siddle -- certain to be a hot name on the coaching carousel -- is the fourth coach to lead UNCW to the NCAA tournament since 2000, joining Jerry Wainwright, Brad Brownell and Kevin Keatts. The Seahawks stunned USC in the 2002 tournament, lost to Maryland at the buzzer the following year and battled Duke and Virginia to the final minute in 2016 and 2017, respectively. -- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 57
Résumé rating: 55
NCAA seed list: 57
Joey Brackets says ...
Siddle has built an outstanding program at UNCW, winning 99 games over the past four years, but he'll finish this season one victory shy of the century mark at the school.
Final field rank: 55
No. 15 Omaha Mavericks
Why they will advance
Omaha, coached by alum Chris Crutchfield, is playing in its first NCAA tournament. Crutchfield apprenticed under some of the nation's best -- having served as an assistant at Oklahoma under Lon Kruger, at Arkansas under Bill Musselman and at Oregon under Dana Altman. He learned his lessons well, as the Mavericks' high-octane offense is fueled by double-digit scorers Marquel Sutton, JJ White and Tony Osburn.
Why they won't advance
Omaha faced two high-major teams during the regular season (Minnesota and Iowa State). It lost to Minnesota, a Big Ten also-ran, by only four points. But it wasn't pretty against Iowa State, with an 83-51 thrashing. Iowa State is comparable in talent to St. John's, Omaha's first-round Big Dance foe. So it figures to be jersey collection time soon at Omaha.
Did you know?
The Mavericks have a unique way of celebrating wins: kicking or beating up a trash can. A few days before Christmas, the Mavericks were 4-9. Associate head coach Kyan Brown gave the team a pregame pep talk, but the response wasn't great. So, he kicked a trash can, the team won and a postgame celebration was born. Omaha is 19-3 in the 22 games since. -- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 62
Résumé rating: 62
NCAA seed list: 61
Joey Brackets says ...
Omaha, the Summit League champ, will be a media darling over the next couple days as its "kick the can" celebration story will be told and retold. But can the Mavericks actually shock the world and win a March Madness game in their first trip to the Big Dance? I don't see that happening against Rick Pitino and St. John's.
Final field rank: 59
No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans
Why they will advance
Norfolk State is led by a dynamic backcourt duo: seniors Brian Moore Jr. and Christian Ings. The two combine for over 30 points and 6 assists per night, the focal points of an attacking, dribble-drive offense that is adept at finding looks at the rim and forcing trips to the free throw line.
Why they won't advance
The Spartans' offense depends on dribble penetration because it is bereft of 3-point shooting. At 16.5 attempts per game, Norfolk State ranks 358th in long-range shooting. Just five teams in college hoops score a lower percentage of their points from deep.
Did you know?
The last MEAC team to win a game in the round of 64 was ... Norfolk State back in 2012. Those Spartans, led by big man Kyle O'Quinn, topped 2-seed Missouri. Before that, it was another decade back to Hampton's win over Iowa State in 2001. -- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 63
Résumé rating: 60
NCAA seed list: 63
Joey Brackets says ...
Norfolk State's downhill driving offense will provide a test for any backcourt it faces, yet it's hard to see the Spartans making waves without the punch provided by 3-point jumpers. Cinderellas rarely win by dominating in the paint, given the size and physicality of higher-seeded teams. No glass slippers for the Spartans against Florida.
Final field rank: 61