Every year, the "College GameDay" crew staffs "The Bracketology Show" on Selection Sunday. And every year, we are handed a bracket by one of our crack assistants to fill out ... in a grand total of five minutes. We make our rushed, thoughtless selections so they can be displayed to the unwashed masses.
We know there will be upsets, but which ones? When we pick upsets, we are called reckless. When we go with the "better team," we are called gutless. (Of course, both are true.)
Sure, we complain. Wouldn't it be great if we had more time to contemplate our selections? That's where this column comes in -- my "More Than Five Minute" bracket. Usually, I make picks with confidence. This year, though, the field is full of question marks, inconsistent teams and injury questions -- coin flips, educated guesses and head-scratchers.
Fitting, for one of the craziest, most interesting basketball seasons on record. The SEC left us all breathless with praise; we have never seen such a powerful league, top to bottom, relative to the field. The SEC earned 14 bids to the NCAA tournament, a record that is unlikely to be broken (unless we go to 30-team leagues in the future); the league has four top-2 seeds and six top-4 seeds, which are also records.
Of course, that does not mean that the national champion will come from the SEC. It doesn't work that way. Maybe it will even come from the ACC, which received four bids, tied for its lowest since 2013 -- and that included North Carolina, the last team selected, confounding bracketologists everywhere. The Tar Heels played a tough schedule, but they did not win against it. Heads exploded when North Carolina showed up on the board.
Six teams in this year's field have won at least 30 games (with three of them in the West Region). Houston, Duke, UC San Diego, High Point, McNeese, Colorado State and Robert Morris all enter the tournament on at least a 10-game winning streak -- and UC San Diego leads the way with 15 straight wins.
The No. 1 seeds were noncontroversial, with Auburn, Duke and Houston locking up a spot seemingly ages ago (Florida was the other 1-seed). The field is strong at the top; I see St. John's and Michigan State with great draws to the Elite Eight. But after the top two seed lines, the bracket is filled with question marks -- which means plenty of intrigue. Tennessee, Missouri, BYU, Creighton, Xavier and Utah State have a combined 170 bids among them historically without a Final Four appearance.
This year, I am confident in the No. 1 seeds. Of course, last year I was confident that UConn and Purdue would reach the title game, but I never saw NC State coming. (I never saw Jamal Shead's injury coming, either. Things happen.) This year, though, the No. 1 seeds look stronger in every region, and all give the feeling that they will advance despite the competition. The last -- and only -- time all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four was in 2008, and yours truly picked the exact Final Four on Selection Sunday. And would you look at that -- the 2008 Final Four was in San Antonio, the site of the 2025 Final Four.
This "More Than Five-Minute Bracket" might not be perfect. But maybe it will. The truth is, I am never wrong. I once thought I was wrong, but I was mistaken. If you decide to take my selections for use in your bracket ... you're welcome.
Jump to: South | East | Midwest | West | Final Four
SOUTH REGION
First round
No. 1 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 16 Alabama State Hornets/St. Francis Red Flash
Player to watch: Chad Baker-Mazara (Auburn). He is the wildest of wild cards -- when he's on, he's a difference-maker who can make big-time plays.
Winner: Auburn
Potential for upset: Very low. No. 16 seeds don't win very often, as in almost never, and I can't see it happening to Auburn.
No. 8 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 9 Creighton Bluejays
Player to watch: Ryan Kalkbrenner (Creighton). He's the best defensive player in the Big East. Louisville doesn't have an answer for him at either end.
Winner: Creighton
Potential for upset: There really is no "upset" in an 8 vs. 9 game. Louisville has had a fantastic season, increasing its win total by 19. And Chucky Hepburn is a great point guard who can control the game, but I favor Creighton. Neither team gets past Auburn anyway, so the upset pick won't crush your bracket.
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons
Players to watch: Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf (Michigan). The two 7-footers run pick-and-rolls with each other -- Wolf is one of the most skilled bigs in the country, and Goldin has Final Four experience with Florida Atlantic.
Winner: Michigan
Potential for upset: Moderate. UC San Diego is a very good defensive team that can force turnovers. Hayden Gray is one of the best defenders in the country, leading the nation in steals. This UCSD team believes, but Michigan should win.
No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 13 Yale Bulldogs
Player to watch: Wade Taylor IV (Texas A&M). The Aggies' all-time scorer and best shooter, Taylor is reliable and motivated.
Winner: Texas A&M
Potential for upset: Moderate. John Poulakidas is a lefty shooter who scored 28 in Yale's win over Auburn last season and 23 against Purdue this season. He and Bez Mbeng are good enough to challenge Texas A&M, but the Aggies' offensive rebounding -- they average 17.0 second-chance points per game, highest in Division I -- will be too much.
No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs/North Carolina Tar Heels
Player to watch: Sean Pedulla (Ole Miss). The former Virginia Tech star is Ole Miss' best shooter (78 3-pointers this season) who handles the ball for the Rebels.
Winner: Ole Miss
Potential for upset: Moderate. The Rebels are likely to play North Carolina, and they must take the Heels out of transition. Ole Miss is a low-turnover team but does not rebound at a high level. Fortunately for the Rebels, neither does North Carolina.
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 14 Lipscomb Bisons
Player to watch: Curtis Jones (Iowa State). The best sixth man in the country can score in bunches. Even without Keshon Gilbert, Iowa State is tough to beat.
Winner: Iowa State
Potential for upset: Low. Gilbert's absence is troubling for Iowa State's title hopes, but the Cyclones have more than enough to advance early.
No. 7 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 10 New Mexico Lobos
Player to watch: Kam Jones (Marquette). The lefty was an early candidate for national player of the year, before Auburn's Johni Broome and Duke's Cooper Flagg separated themselves into the top tier. But Jones took over point guard duty from Tyler Kolek and has been magnificent.
Winner: Marquette
Potential for upset: High. New Mexico is very good and has one of the country's best point guards in Donovan Dent. Don't be surprised if the Lobos clip the Golden Eagles, though neither team should get past Michigan State.
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs
Player to watch: Jase Richardson (Michigan State). The freshman lefty is Michigan State's best player and very mature for his age.
Winner: Michigan State
Potential for upset: Low. The Spartans simply don't bow out in the first round.
Round of 32
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 9 Creighton
Winner: Auburn
Potential for upset: Low. While Auburn has lost three of four entering the tournament, I still like the Tigers to win based upon the high quality of Johni Broome and their guards, who shoot 40% from 3 and 88% from the line as a group.
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 7 Marquette
Winner: Michigan State
Potential for upset: Low. Marquette has what it takes to beat Michigan State, except for rebounding. The Spartans are deep and better on the backboards.
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Winner: Iowa State
Potential for upset: High. Ole Miss has played a killer schedule but does not rebound consistently. The Rebels could absolutely win, but the Cyclones are more efficient on both ends.
No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 5 Michigan
Winner: Texas A&M
Potential for upset: High. This game could be between Yale and UC San Diego, but that would be a bracket killer for many. The glass and turnovers will be the difference. Take the Aggies as the safer pick.
Sweet 16
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
Winner: Auburn
Potential for upset: Low. The Aggies beat the Tigers in College Station just after Auburn wrapped up the SEC title at Rupp, but I don't see Texas A&M beating Auburn twice.
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Iowa State
Winner: Michigan State
Potential for upset: High. If healthy, Iowa State is the pick here, but Michigan State has a great draw. There is something about the Spartans' resolve. I like them to advance, but it will be a fistfight.
Elite Eight
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 2 Michigan State
Winner: Auburn
Potential for upset: Low. Auburn has too many answers for Michigan State. The Tigers shoot better and have Broome, whom the Spartans will have a tough time with.
EAST REGION
First round
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 16 American University Eagles/Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
Player to watch: Cooper Flagg. Is the national player of the year favorite going to be himself after his ankle sprain? (It was just a sprain. He wasn't run over in a cattle stampede.) "Being himself" would mean a guy who leads the Blue Devils in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals and blocks -- the only Duke player to ever do that. I cannot imagine he won't play or that he won't be a difference-maker for Duke.
Winner: Duke
Potential for upset: Low. Only two No. 1 seeds (Virginia in 2018 and Purdue in 2023) have ever lost to a No. 16 seed. It would be bracket malpractice to pick an upset here.
No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Baylor Bears
Player to watch: Josh Hubbard (Mississippi State). For a team that doesn't shoot well, Hubbard has made 104 3-pointers this season. At just 5-foot-11, he is a jet-quick guard who gets to the foul line as often as he pulls up from deep.
Winner: Mississippi State
Potential for upset: Mississippi State will cause more problems for Duke in the second round.
No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 12 Liberty Flames
Player to watch: Nate Bittle (Oregon). He's a big guy who can step away and has a very good skill level. Liberty will have trouble dealing with him around the rim.
Winner: Oregon
Potential for upset: Low. Dana Altman doesn't lose in the first round; he is the West Coast version of Tom Izzo.
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 13 Akron Zips
Player to watch: Caleb Love (Arizona). The former Tar Heel is a big-game player, but streaky. Arizona has been much better in the second half of the season, and Love (16.6 PPG) is the X factor. He can get you as many as 30 points in a given game.
Winner: Arizona
Potential for upset: Moderate. Akron plays a fast, high-assist style with 10.9 3-pointers made per game (sixth best in the nation), and it has won 20 of its past 21 games. But the Zips are small, and the Wildcats' size will be a problem.
No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 VCU Rams
Player to watch: Richie Saunders (BYU). He is a shooter who has canned 74 3-pointers on the season at a 43% clip. Plus, his great-grandfather invented the tater tot -- for that, we owe him a great debt.
Winner: BYU
Potential for upset: High. VCU is very good -- the Rams have the highest offensive and defensive efficiency in the Atlantic 10. They force miscues and have two major talents in Joe Bamisile and Max Shulga, both of whom average 15.0 PPG. Coach Ryan Odom also engineered the UMBC upset over Virginia as a 16-seed in 2018.
No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 14 Montana Grizzlies
Player to watch: John Tonje (Wisconsin). The strong wing is very good at getting into the lane and getting to the foul line. He had a great case for Big Ten Player of the Year despite losing the award to Purdue's Braden Smith.
Winner: Wisconsin
Potential for upset: Low. Wisconsin will have an edge after struggling against Michigan in the Big Ten title game.
No. 7 Saint Mary's Gaels vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores
Player to watch: Jason Edwards (Vanderbilt). The former junior college and North Texas guard plays with a chip on his shoulder and is a dynamic bucket-getter who creates separation.
Winner: Vanderbilt
Potential for upset: High. This is a coin flip. Saint Mary's is very physical and outrebounds opponents by 10.7 per game (best in Division I), but Vanderbilt has played a killer schedule and is used to being challenged. Regardless, I don't see either team beating Alabama in the second round.
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 15 Robert Morris Colonials
Player to watch: Grant Nelson (Alabama). Mark Sears is the Tide's best player, averaging 18.7 points and 4.9 assists (both second in the SEC) for an offense that averages 91.1 PPG. But Nelson has been banged up and did not play in the second half of the SEC tournament semifinal loss to Florida. Without him healthy, Alabama still wins, but could be limited in its title hopes.
Winner: Alabama
Potential for upset: Very low. Robert Morris is good, but Alabama is too powerful of a scoring team to get clipped in the first round.
Round of 32
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 8 Mississippi State
Winner: Duke
Potential for upset: Low. Mississippi State is used to playing big shots, but Duke has too many weapons. It will be a physical game, but the Blue Devils are better on both ends of the floor.
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt
Winner: Alabama
Potential for upset: Fairly low. A healthy Tide squad took down the Commodores 103-87 in January, and I'm not sure Vandy's defense can stop Alabama. I'm putting the Tide through, but it won't be easy to beat an SEC foe again.
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 BYU
Winner: BYU
Potential for upset: High. Wisconsin is a far better scoring team than in past seasons and can play at a faster tempo, but there is something dynamic about BYU that makes this upset likely. Either way, I think Alabama takes the winner in the Sweet 16.
No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 5 Oregon
Winner: Arizona
Potential for upset: Moderate. Oregon has been on a heater of late, riding an 8-1 streak into the tournament, and Jackson Shelstad has been a closer for the Ducks. But Arizona is the better offensive team and has been much tougher in the second half of the season.
Sweet 16
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Arizona
Winner: Duke
Potential for upset: High. Duke beat Arizona on its home court in November, limiting it to only 55 points, so the Wildcats have incentive to avenge that loss vs. a young Blue Devils team. But Duke has Flagg and is more efficient at both ends.
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 BYU
Winner: Alabama
Potential for upset: High. Alabama and BYU will have a track meet. Neither team leads with defense, but Alabama is better at limiting 3s, and Nate Oats hates tater tots. What a buzzkill.
Elite Eight
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 2 Alabama
Winner: Duke
Potential for upset: Moderate. Please be healthy, Alabama! Duke beat Auburn in the ACC-SEC Challenge, which was not a challenge. Duke is the better defensive team, but Alabama's high-powered offense will cause the Blue Devils major problems. The Tide are a slot-driving team that creates 3s and shoots 60% from 2-point range. Even if Nelson is still compromised, I will take Duke here.
MIDWEST REGION
First round
No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. No. 16 SIU Edwardsville Cougars
Player to watch: Emanuel Sharp (Houston). L.J. Cryer has been Houston's best player, but Sharp is on a heater to end the season, with 19, 26 and 17 points in three Big 12 tournament games. He has deep range and a quick release. He flicks the ball with an unorthodox stroke, but it goes in like nobody's business.
Winner: Houston
Potential for upset: Low. Houston leads the nation in playing hard and allows the second-fewest PPG in Division I (58.5). There is no way they don't bring it against SIUE. Advance the Cougars.
No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs
Player to watch: Ryan Nembhard (Gonzaga). The Zags point guard is the No. 1 assists guy in the country and is surgical in pick-and-roll actions
Winner: Gonzaga
Potential for upset: Georgia is very talented but very young in key spots. Gonzaga has been to nine straight Sweet 16s, and that winning DNA means something to me.
No. 5 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
Player to watch: Chase Hunter (Clemson). Hunter is the leading scorer (16.4 PPG) and a steady, trustworthy player on a Clemson team that has good guards and excellent rebounders inside.
Winner: Clemson
Potential for upset: High. McNeese can really force turnovers and create chaos. But Clemson does a nice job of controlling tempo, and Brad Brownell is among the nation's best coaches. If Clemson doesn't cough it up against pressure, the Tigers win this one. Still, this region has its fair share of upset picks. It would not surprise me to see Clemson and/or Purdue slip on a banana peel early.
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 13 High Point Panthers
Player to watch: Braden Smith (Purdue). Smith is the best point guard in the country, averaging 8.7 APG (second in the country). He is tough, a great passer and a clutch performer.
Winner: Purdue
Potential for upset: Low. High Point has beaten UAB and American, but Purdue should get past the Big South champs.
No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns/Xavier Musketeers
Player to watch: Kasparas Jakucionis (Illinois). The freshman is one of the most skilled players in the field. Illinois relies upon him for scoring and playmaking, and he delivers, knocking in deep shots and getting to the foul line.
Winner: Texas
Potential for upset: High. I like Texas to slip past Xavier -- Tre Johnson is one of the best scorers in the tournament, and often a First Four team advances. It won't be easy; Xavier could easily advance behind Ryan Conwell's shooting. There is a risk to advance Texas, but it's one worth taking. All three teams have been inconsistent, but Texas has won more big games.
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Troy Trojans
Player to watch: Otega Oweh (Kentucky). The Oklahoma transfer has blossomed under Mark Pope, whose offense averages 85.3 PPG, ranking fourth in Division I. Oweh is a second-half performer who attacks in transition and gets downhill.
Winner: Kentucky
Potential for upset: Low. Kentucky is banged up with Jaxson Robinson out for the season and Lamont Butler is compromised by a shoulder injury. If Butler cannot play, Kentucky cannot defend at a high level. But it should still be enough against Troy.
No. 7 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 10 Utah State Aggies
Player to watch: Eric Dailey Jr. (UCLA). The forward has been the Bruins' best player in big games. He can get you 20 points -- he had 25 against USC in the regular-season finale -- but he also had a bagel in the loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament.
Winner: Utah State
Potential for upset: High. UCLA should win, because its defense is better. But if there is an upset to pick, this one works. The Aggies are very good offensively and have beaten Saint Mary's and San Diego State this season. Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev can really shoot it.
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Wofford Terriers
Player to watch: Chaz Lanier (Tennessee). Zakai Zeigler is the Vols' best player and the heart and soul of Rick Barnes' team, averaging 13.5 points and 7.3 assists per game. Lanier, however, is the latest gem found by Barnes, and he can really shoot the ball.
Winner: Tennessee
Potential for upset: Low. Wofford is good -- and on a three-game win streak -- but Tennessee is too powerful.
Round of 32
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 8 Gonzaga
Winner: Houston
Potential for upset: Low. Houston's defense and rebounding should be too much for the Zags.
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 10 Utah State
Winner: Tennessee
Potential for upset: Low. Whether it is UCLA or Utah State, Tennessee is too physical and experienced.
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Texas
Winner: Kentucky
Potential for upset: High. This is an odd group of teams, and any one of them is capable of getting through. Kentucky's injuries give me pause, but Mark Pope's offense is my bet here. (Still, I see Tennessee beating any of these opponents.)
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 5 Clemson
Winner: Purdue
Potential for upset: High. I am going with Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn to advance, but it is more of a coin flip than anything.
Sweet 16
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Purdue
Winner: Houston
Potential for upset: Low. Houston is a better team than Purdue or any of the other possibilities. Advance the Cougars.
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Kentucky
Winner: Tennessee
Potential for upset: Low. Kentucky can score, but not against Tennessee on a neutral court. When healthy, Kentucky would be very tough to beat, but I like Tennessee here.
Elite Eight
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Winner: Houston
Potential for upset: High. This game will be a physical battle that should be officiated by three Navy Seals. I am taking Houston.
WEST REGION
First round
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans
Player to watch: Walter Clayton Jr. (Florida). The Iona transfer is one of the best offensive players in the country. He scores easily and is a right driver who can pull up going left and give you 30 or more. He poured in 33 at Kentucky in Rupp and was the best player in the SEC tournament.
Winner: Florida
Potential for upset: Low. Don't risk picking a title team to lose to a No. 16 seed. Not worth it.
No. 8 UConn Huskies vs. No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners
Player to watch: Jeremiah Fears (Oklahoma). The freshman is super talented and can get by anyone. Fears put up 28 and 29 in his past two games against Georgia and Kentucky and hung 31 on Missouri two weeks ago.
Winner: UConn
Potential for upset: This game is a coin flip. Neither team beats Florida -- because neither team defends at a high level -- so I went with the defending champ.
No. 5 Memphis Tigers vs. No. 12 Colorado State Rams
Player to watch: PJ Haggerty (Memphis). The sophomore guard can really get downhill. He had 42 points in a game against Wichita State in the AAC tournament, and he will put up numbers against Colorado State.
Winner: Memphis
Potential for upset: High. Colorado State has Nique Clifford, a "do-it-all" forward, and the Rams run a great offense. They can win.
No. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 13 Grand Canyon Lopes
Player to watch: Derik Queen (Maryland). The freshman big man has unusual skill and great feet. He averages 16.3 PPG and is a big part of a Maryland offense that outscores its opponents by 16.4 PPG (seventh best in Division I).
Winner: Maryland
Potential for upset: High. Grand Canyon can play. Last season's roster was a bit better, but the Lopes will not be scared. The Terps will have to play well to win.
No. 6 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs
Player to watch: Bennett Stirtz (Drake). Stirtz averages 19 points per game and knows how to play. Drake plays a slower tempo and can rebound, force turnovers and get to the foul line. Missouri will have to speed the Bulldogs up to win.
Winner: Missouri
Potential for upset: High. I favor Missouri because the Tigers are deeper and more athletic. But Drake knows how to win. I favor Texas Tech against the winner, so an upset pick won't hurt if it doesn't pan out.
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 14 UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Player to watch: JT Toppin (Texas Tech). The only player who ranks among the top three in the Big 12 in scoring (18.1 PPG) and rebounding (9.3 RPG), there is not a better athlete in the tournament field. Toppin -- who has 14 double-doubles this season -- is a highlight-reel, high-wire act.
Winner: Texas Tech
Potential for upset: Low. The Red Raiders are a very good offensive team -- they boast the fourth-highest offensive efficiency in Division I -- and the best No. 3 seed in the field. Christian Anderson and Chance McMillian can both shoot it.
No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks
Player to watch: Hunter Dickinson (Kansas). The lefty big man had another good season, although Kansas has struggled. He is a high-level rebounder who is very productive: No other active player in Division I has more career points than Dickinson (2,789).
Winner: Kansas
Potential for upset: High. Arkansas is banged up, with Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero injured, but the Razorbacks -- although inconsistent -- have still been winning. This game is a toss-up, but more importantly, I favor St. John's over both in the next round. An upset pick won't hurt you here.
No. 2 St. John's Red Storm vs. No. 15 Omaha Mavericks
Player to watch: Zuby Ejiofor (St. John's). The Kansas transfer is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country and is an absolute beast; he dropped 33 against Marquette in the Big East semifinal.
Winner: St. John's
Potential for upset: Low. The Johnnies can guard, and they've got great players at key positions, like Kadary Richmond at guard and RJ Luis Jr. at wing. They play with an edge and intensity that is mindful of Rick Pitino's old Louisville teams.
Round of 32
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 8 UConn
Winner: Florida
Potential for upset: Low. The Gators are too big, too talented and too good.
No. 2 St. John's vs. No. 7 Kansas
Winner: St. John's
Potential for upset: Low. St. John's has won 19 of its past 20, and that is not an accident. The Johnnies' defense will carry the day.
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 6 Missouri
Winner: Texas Tech
Potential for upset: High. Texas Tech is the better offensive team, while Missouri is more disruptive on the defensive end. I am going with Toppin and the Red Raiders, although there is low confidence here. Missouri might have lost five of seven, but the Tigers are still capable.
No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 5 Memphis
Winner: Memphis
Potential for upset: High. This could very well be a game between Colorado State and Grand Canyon. I'm going with the Tigers' dynamic scorers, but this is not a region to feel confident about.
Sweet 16
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 5 Memphis
Winner: Florida
Potential for upset: Moderate. Memphis has a bunch of versatile players; it's not just Haggerty. With Dain Dainja and Moussa Cissé, they can protect the rim and throw it inside. But Florida is the best team in the country in my opinion, and they'll have enough for the Tigers.
No. 2 St. John's vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
Winner: St. John's
Potential for upset: Moderate. Texas Tech is capable of beating St. John's, but I give the edge to the Red Storm because of the edge with which they play. The Johnnies are balanced and play with a chip on their shoulder.
Elite Eight
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 2 St. John's
Winner: Florida
Potential for upset: High. If St. John's were in any of the other regions, I would put them in San Antonio. But in the end, I think Florida has too much on the offensive end. In a seven-game series, it is Florida.
Final Four
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 1 Florida
Winner: Florida
Potential for upset: The last time all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four was 2008 ... also in San Antonio. Though it is always unlikely, this could very well be the year that feat is duplicated, and we'll see no upsets in the Elite Eight. In this matchup, however, Florida is just so deep, big and talented, and it's on a roll. I'm going with the Gators.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 Duke
Winner: Houston
Potential for upset: No upset here. Houston and Duke played in the Sweet 16 last year, but Cougars guard Jamal Shead was injured in the first half and Duke prevailed. I see a reversal here, even though Duke is the more talented team. Houston is more experienced and is a team full of grown men. This time, I am taking Houston.
National championship
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 1 Houston
Winner: Florida
Potential for upset: Florida has the best guards in the country with Clayton, Alijah Martin and Will Richard. Florida also has great big men with Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu. This will be a battle on the backboards, and Florida is the one team that can match Houston on the glass.