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Basketball recruiting insider- Jeff Borzello is a basketball recruiting insider. He has joined ESPN in 2014.
The dominance of the SEC this season has been well-documented. It has the highest KenPom rating as a conference in the history of the database, which dates to the 1996-97 season. With 13 teams in ESPN's latest Bracketology, the league is on pace to set a record for most NCAA tournament bids from a single conference, which was previously held by the Big East with 11 in 2011.
But as we enter the second half of conference play, it's time to focus on which SEC teams can win games in March. The league has three of the top five teams in ESPN's Basketball Power Index rankings and four in the top 10. It has three projected 1-seeds, and eight teams on the top five seed lines. According to ESPN BET futures, five of the 10 most likely teams to cut down the nets entering the week were SEC teams.
How do ESPN college basketball writers Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf perceive the pecking order of the conference? They break it down into tiers.
Jump to a tier:
National championship favorite
Clear path to a national title
Realistic Final Four hopes
Deep run depending on matchups
Anything could happen
Streaky but still has bubble hopes
Time to look toward 2025-26
National championship favorite
Before Tuesday, Oklahoma had defeated some of the best teams in the country (Arizona, Louisville, Michigan). But when it faced No. 1 Auburn that night, it was clear the Tigers were playing at a level that's unmatched in the SEC right now -- and the Sooners lost 98-70.
"I thought we were fighting the first 20 minutes," Oklahoma coach Porter Moser said. "I thought we came out in the second half fighting, even though it didn't look good. We were doing some things. It was in reach. And I think it just snowballed on us. And they can do that to you. The physicality and size that they have, they make you pay."
The Tigers have it all. Johni Broome (18.2 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 2.8 BPG) is Cooper Flagg's only real competition -- or vice versa -- in the national player of the year race. Chad Baker-Mazara is an energizer for this veteran group. They have incredible guards who lead a team that's top-10 in turnover percentage. They have a bunch of players who are 6-foot-6 or taller and anchor their elite defense. And Bruce Pearl could end the season with national coach of the year honors. The only blemish on Auburn's résumé is a Dec. 4 road loss to Duke. But the teams could meet again. The rematch could come in San Antonio with the national championship on the line. -- Medcalf
Clear path to a national title
Arguably the most talented on-paper roster in the country entering the season, Alabama took some time to really click at both ends of the court. But the Crimson Tide have won 13 of their past 14 games and are rounding into form. Mark Sears has been playing at an All-America level for most of the season while Grant Nelson is playing his best basketball of the campaign. Coach Nate Oats has also seen a sizable boost from South Florida transfer Chris Youngblood (who is healthy again after an ankle injury), along with the bench production of Aden Holloway and Mouhamed Dioubate. Overall, this is a truly elite offense capable of putting up 100-plus points more often than any other team.
The Crimson Tide are not perfect. They can be streaky: 47.5% of their field goal attempts come from beyond the arc, but they make them at only a 33.6% clip -- although that number has improved in SEC play. Labaron Philon returning to form is also imperative. He has sat out practice recently and hasn't started the past three games; his playmaking provides a different dimension for the Tide. -- Borzello
Mark Sears shares the biggest lessons he's learned from being a part of the Crimson Tide program and gives a shoutout to his teammate Chris Youngblood after a win over No. 14 MS State.
Realistic Final Four hopes
On Jan. 7, then-No. 1 Tennessee suffered a 30-point loss at Florida that just didn't make sense. The Volunteers had fallen apart that night and as more losses piled up -- they went 3-4 over a seven-game stretch -- there were valid questions about whether coach Rick Barnes' team had peaked too early. But nearly a month later, Tennessee beat Florida 64-44 on Feb. 1, without stars Zakai Zeigler and Igor Milicic Jr. on the court.
Those two are back, and the Vols are now healthy again and their offensive and defensive metrics with Chaz Lanier (17.9 PPG, 42% from beyond the arc) are superior to the numbers they produced with Dalton Knecht and last season's Elite Eight squad. Tennessee is the nation's best defensive squad and has toyed with some of the game's best. The résumé features double-digit wins over Baylor, Louisville and Florida. If the Vols can sustain this effort in March, they could end up in San Antonio. -- Medcalf
Despite the absence of two starters, the Volunteers earn their largest win over an AP Top-5 opponent, 64-44, as the Gators suffer their worst offensive performance of the season.
The transfer portal era in college basketball has been compared to NBA free agency. That's not entirely accurate. It's more difficult for college teams to match players from other schools with their systems and cultures. You have to find the right guys.
Coach Todd Golden has done that this season. This team has the depth and balance to earn the program's first trip to the Final Four since 2014. Alijah Martin, who starred for Florida Atlantic during its 2023 Final Four run, has been a complementary piece for a Florida backcourt led by Walter Clayton Jr. and Will Richard, two returnees from last season. The Gators are top-15 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom, mostly because of their depth -- a strength for a team that beat Vanderbilt this week without Clayton, their leading scorer who is recovering from an ankle injury. --Medcalf
Deep run possible depending on matchups
After registering a season-high 24 points, Matthew Murrell speaks on fighting through injuries to contribute to the No. 25 Rebels' momentum in an upset over the No. 14 Wildcats.
Let's start with the good.
Only Auburn has a more impressive set of quality wins than Kentucky (Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M). That's the type of résumé that -- in most seasons -- would position a team for a top seed.
Coach Mark Pope needed just a few months to put his stamp on the program in his first season with a roster made up entirely of newcomers. Otega Oweh and Jaxson Robinson have been reliable leaders to give Kentucky the aura of a second-weekend team.
But, Kentucky is one of the worst defensive teams in America. Yes, the Wildcats are second in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they are also 111th in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. For context, they're worse defensively in conference play than last season's Missouri squad, which ended on a 19-game losing streak. Lamont Butler's injury has been a factor but his absence isn't the most significant.
Kentucky is the country's most imbalanced squad. It's capable of near offensive perfection (see its 106-100 win over Florida on Jan. 4) against any opponent. But that defense is so bad, the Wildcats could also be a popular pick to be on the wrong end of an upset (again) in the first round. -- Medcalf
The Aggies won't need a late surge to make the NCAA tournament this season, starting off 13-2 -- including wins over Purdue and Texas Tech -- and holding their own in the first half of SEC play. Coach Buzz Williams' team has had to battle injuries, including one to star guard Wade Taylor IV, but it has developed high-quality depth and a healthy Taylor just had 25 points and seven 3-pointers. The addition of SMU transfer Zhuric Phelps has also given Taylor a capable sidekick.
But A&M's success is predicated upon its defense. The Aggies rank in the top 10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, they're 10th in 2-point attempts allowed and they're the best rebounding team in the SEC at both ends. Do they have the scoring pop if the defense has an off night? -- Borzello
One of the biggest surprises in the country, coach Dennis Gates has Missouri in the top tier of the SEC standings after not winning a conference game last season. And interestingly enough, there wasn't a complete roster overhaul in Columbia.
But there have been two key factors: one, the arrival of Mark Mitchell from Duke; and two, the healthy return of Caleb Grill. Missouri gets to the free throw line as often as any team, and Mitchell is at the forefront of the aggressiveness. Meanwhile, Grill is one of the best sixth men in the country, averaging 15.7 points on 50% 3-point shooting over the past month.
The Tigers do have some dramatic win/loss splits, however. In wins, they shoot 50.7% from the field and 40.3% from 3; in losses, it's 39.0% and 25.6%, respectively. -- Borzello
Ole Miss looked like the real deal through the first two months of the season, starting off with 15 wins in its first 17 games -- capped by a road win at Alabama. The Rebels then dropped four of their next five, before scoring 98 points in Tuesday's blowout win over Kentucky.
There's plenty to like on this roster. It's a veteran group and one of the most experienced teams in the country. It plays a typical Chris Beard-coached defense -- although that unit has shown some cracks of late -- and has a long list of shotmakers offensively. The biggest thing will be consistency. Sean Pedulla was playing terrific basketball before struggling against Kentucky, but can the Rebels get the supporting cast of Matthew Murrell, Dre Davis, Jaylen Murray, Jaemyn Brakefield and Malik Dia all firing at the same time? They did against Kentucky; now they just have to do it more often. -- Borzello
Anything could happen
The Bulldogs are another team having some recent issues after a flying start. They went 14-1 but have lost five of their past seven games. They're struggling at both ends of the court.
Much of coach Chris Jans' success in Starkville has come at the defensive end, but the Bulldogs rank 12th in the SEC in defensive efficiency and are getting torched from 3. Offensively, they've been held below one point per possession in four of their past six games. Can the Bulldogs get back to how they were playing earlier this season? Josh Hubbard is one of the most electric scoring guards in the country and is capable of carrying them offensively -- but he'll need help. -- Borzello
In its first season in the SEC, Texas was expected to finish in the top half of the conference, according to preseason projections. Now, it's fighting to grab an invite to the NCAA tournament. The Longhorns' upcoming schedule should put them in a position to add wins to their résumé, but nothing is guaranteed for a group led by Tre Johnson (19.0 PPG, 38% from 3), a projected lottery pick in this summer's NBA draft per ESPN.
The Longhorns could use a signature victory or two before the end of the regular season to avoid a difficult first-round matchup. They have the talent to do it, too -- but they're also playing subpar interior defense and connecting on just 31% of their attempts from the 3-point line in SEC play. -- Medcalf
The Commodores' NCAA tournament chances are a byproduct of the SEC's overall strength (Vanderbilt has a NET in the mid-40s) and a record that does not include any bad losses. This is also a promising start for Mark Byington in his first season as the head coach. Wins over Tennessee and Kentucky have helped his team's cause. And Devin McGlockton (71% clip inside the arc) has been a standout.
Still, this up-and-down squad will have to grapple with a treacherous slate the rest of the way to stay in the hunt for an at-large berth. If it can achieve that feat -- in a rebuilding season and after being picked to finish last in the SEC in the preseason -- you can certainly call this season a success. -- Medcalf
Even with Asa Newell, the 6-11 five-star recruit who has five double-doubles on the season, the Bulldogs will need a strong February. But what will they even do with an at-large berth? They've been a middle-of-the-pack defensive team in conference play and they're 15th out of 16 teams in offensive efficiency in the SEC.
At their best, they've defeated St. John's, Kentucky and Oklahoma. But we haven't seen that version of the Bulldogs, who'd lost five of six, entering Wednesday's matchup against LSU, in nearly a month. Still, it's possible an NCAA tournament matchup against an opponent outside the strongest conference in the country could open the door to postseason success. -- Medcalf
For the first two months of the season, Oklahoma was one of the biggest surprise teams in college basketball, winning its first 13 games -- including victories over Arizona, Michigan and Louisville. The Sooners then lost four in a row to open SEC play, before righting the ship and winning three of four. If the NCAA tournament started today, they would probably be in the field, sitting somewhere in the 8-9 or 7-10 game.
Was the 30-point win over Vanderbilt last weekend a sign of some consistency moving forward? Freshman Jeremiah Fears, one of the best newcomers in the country during the first half of the season, had 21 points and looked to be putting his recent struggles behind him, although those predictably returned against Auburn. -- Borzello
Streaky but still has bubble hopes
The Razorbacks have serious life -- and the SEC has a legitimate chance to land 14 teams in the NCAA tournament. Just a couple of weeks ago, it looked as if coach John Calipari's first season in Fayetteville was going to end in disarray. After a solid 11-2 nonconference showing, Arkansas lost its first five games in SEC play -- and star freshman Boogie Fland to a season-ending injury. But Calipari's squad then went into Rupp Arena and stunned Kentucky by double digits, followed by a trip to Austin and another road win over Texas.
Johnell Davis averaged 21.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists in the two wins and looks more like the player who carried Florida Atlantic the previous two seasons. This is still one of the most talented teams in the conference, or at least a team talented enough to get to the dance and win a game or two. Don't write off the Razorbacks. -- Borzello
Time to look toward 2025-26
There was a little bit of optimism early on for LSU, which beat Kansas State, UCF and Florida State in the first four weeks of the season. But a season-ending ACL injury to Jalen Reed and the sudden departure of leading returning scorer Tyrell Reed shortly after the start of the season simply left coach Matt McMahon's team short of talent. The Tigers went 11-2 in nonconference games but have won only one SEC game so far. With increased NIL and the arrival of three four-star prospects, the Tigers will look to rebuild for next season. -- Borzello
A year ago, Lamont Paris signed a six-year, $26 million extension after he won SEC coach of the year, secured a trip to the NCAA tournament and led his team to a 13-5 SEC record, which included wins over Kentucky and Tennessee. His success last season was defined by his team's ability to win close games: The Gamecocks were 5-1 in 2023-24 in matchups decided by three points or fewer, or that ended in overtime. This season, the pendulum has swung the other way, and the Gamecocks have suffered close losses to Auburn (three points), Vanderbilt (three points), Florida (one point), Mississippi State (five points in overtime) and Texas A&M (four points) during its current nine-game losing streak. Paris has to start fresh and reboot. -- Medcalf