We've finally reached Selection Sunday! That's a good thing for all the teams that have already secured automatic bids or have strong odds to make the NCAA tournament. For everyone else, it's a source of panic. But we're here, along with Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, to help as a guide to making it through.
As of now, according to ESPN Analytics' tournament forecast model, 37 teams have achieved at least a 95% chance to make the tournament (including all 31 automatic bids), and four others are in solid shape (70-95%). But that leaves 18 teams sitting between 25% and 69% odds, their fates still uncertain.
Only a few games of bubble consequence happened Sunday: VCU defeating George Mason in the Atlantic 10 Conference championship game, and UAB falling to Memphis for the American Athletic Conference title. But the real drama is around all the teams that didn't play Sunday. Will Texas and/or North Carolina make it? What about Arkansas? Indiana? Xavier? How many teams will the mighty SEC get -- and what might that mean downstream for conferences such as the ACC and Mountain West?
According to ESPN Analytics' final projection, the 22 bubble teams are fighting over 11 spots. The cutline in the model is between Indiana (at 47%) on the positive side -- joined by Texas (66%), Arkansas (64%), North Carolina (63%), Vanderbilt (61%) and Georgia (61%) -- and Xavier (44%) on the negative side -- joined by SMU (37%), Boise State (36%), Ohio State (33%), San Diego State (31%) and Wake Forest (29%). But that's just a computer model; humans can sometimes disagree with the stats, as we know all too well.
Read on for our breakdown of each bubble team by conference and current category (based on its projected NCAA tournament status).
Teams with Lock status have at least a 95% chance to make the tournament, according to the BPI forecast. (Yes, this means that 5% of the time, a team marked as a lock will miss the tourney. We set the threshold there as a nod to the traditional standard for significance testing.)
A team marked Should Be In has a BPI probability from 70% to 94%. These are teams that, most likely, will get into the field of 68, though their fates are not completely assured yet.
And a team with the Sweating out the selection show tag has anywhere from 25% to 69% tourney odds per the BPI, or is featured in ESPN's most recent Bracketology.
Here is our current projection of the bubble:
Clinched auto-bids (31 teams): SIU Edwardsville, High Point, Lipscomb, Drake, Omaha, Wofford, Troy, St. Francis (PA), Robert Morris, UNC Wilmington, Gonzaga, McNeese, American University, Montana, Bryant, Norfolk State, Colorado State, Houston, St. John's, Mount St. Mary's, Akron, Duke, Liberty, UC San Diego, Alabama State, Grand Canyon, Yale, VCU, Florida, Michigan, Memphis
At-large bids available: 37 teams
Locks: 37 teams
The Bubble: 22 total teams
Should be in: 4 teams
Sweating out the selection show: 18 teams
Here's the rundown of teams -- conference by conference -- in order of which conferences projects to get the most NCAA bids. And we've listed expected number of bids for each of the power conferences. The teams are listed in order within each category based on their chances to get a tourney bid.
Notes: All times are Eastern. SOR = strength of record. SOS = strength of schedule. NET rankings = The NCAA's official evaluation tool, which is the recommended rating for the committee to look at. SRS = Simple Rating System. WAB = Wins Above Bubble, a team's extra wins beyond what a typical bubble team would have against its schedule.
Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten
Big 12 | ACC | Big East
Mid-majors | Others
SEC (12.3 expected bids)
Locks (95% tourney chance)
Tennessee Volunteers (100%), Florida Gators (100%), Auburn Tigers (100%), Alabama Crimson Tide (100%), Texas A&M Aggies (100%), Kentucky Wildcats (100%), Ole Miss Rebels (100%), Missouri Tigers (99%), Mississippi State Bulldogs (98%)
Should be in (70% to 94%)
Oklahoma Sooners (89%)
Even after a tough 85-84 loss to Kentucky in the SEC tournament's second round, the Sooners probably solidified a tourney trip in their comeback against Georgia on Wednesday night. Their résumé is better than we would probably expect from a 13-loss squad anyway: The Sooners rank top 40 in both SOR and WAB, with eight wins over top-50 teams and 12 over the top 100, while 12 of their 13 losses have been against top-50 opponents. But the Sooners are still ranked a shockingly low 13th in the SEC in NET; putting them right on the edge of the tourney cutoff if going off Bracketology. Still, that might not matter after knocking off Georgia, playing Kentucky tough on Thursday and producing an overall solid résumé. (Updated March 14 at 8:16 a.m.)
Sweating out the selection show (25% to 69%)
Texas Longhorns (64%)
Texas' run through the SEC tournament ended Friday with an 83-72 quarterfinal loss to Tennessee, a defeat that dropped the Longhorns' odds of making the NCAA tournament from to the low 60s% in the ESPN Analytics model. In truth, that might be overstating their case somewhat if we compare with other forecasts. On the plus side, Texas' NET ranking is around the top 40, and it has six wins against top-50 BPI teams (11 against the top 100), the foundation for a good tourney résumé. But its SOR and WAB still rank just outside the top 50, giving the Longhorns a tougher case to make than some other bubble squads. In an SEC that could send as many as 14 (!!) teams to the Big Dance per Joe Lunardi, Texas ranks 11th both in NET and ESPN Analytics' tourney odds, so the Longhorns might have done enough -- but they'll have to wait until Sunday to find out. (Updated March 14 at 6:01 p.m.)
Arkansas Razorbacks (64%)
Arkansas' roller-coaster season continued on Thursday with an instant SEC tourney classic against Ole Miss. The game featured multiple comebacks and ended on a game-winning 3-pointer by Ole Miss' Sean Pedulla in the final seconds, breaking the Hogs' hearts. Arkansas had played so well over the past three weeks of the regular season, preserving its shot at the Big Dance, but after the loss, its tourney odds fell to the low 60s% in the ESPN Analytics forecast. The Hogs still rank 11th in the SEC in NET, and with the conference slated to send 13 teams to the tournament in the latest version of Bracketology, they are still considered more likely to make it than not. That is thanks to a handful of head-to-head wins over quality teams, including bubble rivals Texas (twice), Vanderbilt and Georgia. But as a mid-40s team by SOR and WAB with plenty of losses (albeit to good teams), the Hogs will spend Selection Sunday pondering their future. (Updated March 13 at 3:42 p.m.)
After Ven-Allen Lubin misses the first free throw, his second is erased by a Jae'Lyn Withers lane violation.
Georgia Bulldogs (61%)
Just when Georgia's impressive four-game win streak to end the regular season seemed to make the Bulldogs a solid pick for the field of 68, a blown second-half lead to Oklahoma -- giving up a 16-0 run as their edge crumbled -- in Round 1 of the SEC tourney has UGA sweating things again. Its tourney chances dropped from to the low 60s% with the loss, according to ESPN Analytics' forecast model -- though we should note that other models tend to be higher on the Bulldogs. On the positive side, they have a string of quality wins under high-stakes circumstances, including five against the BPI top 50 and 12 against the top 100 -- a list that includes wins against St. John's, Florida and Kentucky -- while all 12 of their losses have been against top-50 opponents. Even after losing early in the SEC, the Dawgs seem to have the résumé of a tourney team, but they now face more uncertainty than they did just a few days ago. (Updated March 13 at 8:51 a.m.)
Vanderbilt Commodores (61%)
Vanderbilt went cold at the wrong time, extending a three-game losing streak into the opening round of the SEC tournament with Wednesday's loss to Texas, making its NCAA tournament future less secure than it seemed earlier this month. The loss dropped the Commodores to the low 60s% in the ESPN NCAA tournament forecast, further distancing them from what once seemed like "lock" territory. Their recent schedule had been brutal, with Arkansas being their only loss to a non-Quad I opponent since early January. And their SOR and WAB rankings still hover around 40, making for a résumé that looks as if it should warrant inclusion among the SEC's mammoth crop of NCAA tourney-bound teams. But the Commodores rank 13th in NET, behind bubble-dwelling Arkansas and Texas (but ahead of Oklahoma), in a conference that will send either 12 or 13 teams to the Big Dance. An early SEC tournament letdown was not what Vanderbilt needed. (Updated March 13 at 9:04 a.m.)
Outside looking in (1% to 24%)
There are no teams with probabilities below 24%
Big Ten (9.0 expected bids)
Locks
Wisconsin Badgers (100%), Michigan Wolverines (100%), Oregon Ducks (100%), Michigan State Spartans (100%), Purdue Boilermakers (100%), Maryland Terrapins (100%), UCLA Bruins (100%), Illinois Fighting Illini (100%)
Should be in
There are no teams with probabilities between 70% to 94%
Sweating out the selection show
Indiana Hoosiers (46%)
The Hoosiers' run through the Big Ten tournament ended Thursday with their second loss to Oregon in the span of nine days. Now the question is: Could it mean the end of their NCAA tourney hopes as well? Their odds fell to the mid 40s% in ESPN Analytics' tournament forecast with the loss, casting uncertainty on whether their name will be called on Selection Sunday. The Hoosiers are 4-11 against BPI top-50 teams and 11-13 against the top 100, with SOR and WAB ranks around the mid-40s in the nation and a NET that ranked 10th in what could be a nine-bid conference. They will have to hope the committee favors their 19th-ranked strength of schedule and doesn't hold losses to good teams against them too much. (Updated March 13 at 2:18 p.m.)
Ohio State Buckeyes (32%)
A late 16-9 Iowa run put the Buckeyes away in Round 1 of the Big Ten tourney, another blow to Ohio State's tourney hopes. With the loss, their tourney odds in ESPN Analytics' forecast fell to low 30s%, a far cry from where they were a week ago. How the selection committee views Ohio State's 10th-ranked schedule strength remains the key. Twelve of its 15 losses have come against BPI top-50 opponents, and all 15 were against the top 100. Predictive metrics still think the Buckeyes are a good team (all put them in the 30-range nationally), but their résumé metrics are less convincing. (Updated March 13 at 8:27 a.m.)
Nebraska Cornhuskers (13%)
Nebraska completed its agonizing collapse with a fifth consecutive loss (and sixth in seven games) to close the regular season out hosting Iowa. The defeat dropped the Huskers' tourney odds to 13% in the ESPN Analytics model. Nebraska's résumé metrics (high-50s in SOR and WAB) slipped badly at the worst possible time, and while they do have six wins over top-50 opponents, it's hard to see a path to the tourney based on the way the Huskers finished the season. (Updated March 14 at 9:44 a.m.)
Outside looking in
Northwestern Wildcats (5%), Iowa Hawkeyes (2%)
Big 12 (7.8 expected bids)
Locks
BYU Cougars (100%), Texas Tech Red Raiders (100%), Houston Cougars (100%), Arizona Wildcats (100%), Iowa State Cyclones (100%), Kansas Jayhawks (100%)
Should be in
Baylor Bears (87%)
Despite trailing nearly the entire game, Baylor made Thursday's Big 12 tournament quarterfinal matchup interesting at the end before losing 76-74 to Texas Tech. The loss dropped the Bears' NCAA tournament chances from to the mid 80s% in the ESPN Analytics forecast model. Are those too high? It is worth acknowledging that other models aren't as bullish on Baylor, so it's not clear if Scott Drew's group is quite as safe as this "should be in" placement indicates. Baylor does have a competitive résumé, however, with four wins against the BPI top 50 and 12 wins against the top 100, with an SOR and WAB each around No. 40 nationally. (Also, 12 of its 14 losses came against top-50 opponents.) The Bears rank seventh in NET in a conference primed to send eight teams to the Big Dance, which helps explain their high odds in the ESPN model. They're another team counting on the committee giving it extra credit for facing a difficult schedule -- and one of the best teams in that category. (Updated March 13 at 9:15 p.m.)
Sweating out the selection show
West Virginia Mountaineers (69%)
The Mountaineers' NCAA hopes took a hit with Wednesday's upset loss to Colorado in the second round of the Big 12 tournament -- how much, though, is up for debate. The ESPN Analytics model still lists West Virginia's probability at 69%, placing it near "should be in" territory despite the early exit. However, other models are less optimistic on WVU's chances. The Mountaineers also rank eighth in NET in a conference that Bracketology projects for eight tourney teams, underscoring how up-in-the-air their chances could be. WVU has faced a difficult schedule, though, and ranks around the 40s in both SOR and WAB, with six wins versus top-50 opponents and 12 against the top 100. They could be the biggest winner of Cincinnati's parallel loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament, because the Mountaineers hold a number of advantages in a head-to-head comparison vs. the Bearcats if it comes down to that for the last NCAA tourney spot out of the conference. (Updated March 13 at 8:57 a.m.)
Cincinnati Bearcats (16%)
The Bearcats made Round 2 of the Big 12 tournament, extending their slim NCAA tournament hopes, but they were no match for Iowa State on Wednesday. The loss was No. 15 on the season, and while they still retain a 16% chance to make the tourney in the ESPN Analytics forecast, one has to think Cincinnati is effectively off the bubble. The Bearcats still carry only three wins in 12 chances against BPI top-50 teams, though they do have 10 wins against the top 100. They also rank ninth in NET in a Big 12 conference that Bracketology believes will send eight teams to the Big Dance -- and they were swept head-to-head by West Virginia, the Big 12's other bubble team close to them in NET. (Updated March 14 at 8:17 a.m.)
Outside looking in
Kansas State Wildcats (2%), UCF Knights (2%), TCU Horned Frogs (1%)
Big East (4.5 expected bids)
Locks
St. John's Red Storm (100%), Marquette Golden Eagles (100%), Creighton Bluejays (100%), UConn Huskies (99%)
Should be in
There are no teams with BPI probabilities between 70% and 94%
Sweating out the selection show
Xavier Musketeers (44%)
Xavier closed the regular season strong, winning seven straight and eight of nine, and seemed to carry that momentum into the Big East tournament -- but Marquette erased a 10-point halftime deficit and made the clutch plays late to send Xavier home early. The Musketeers' NCAA tournament odds fell to mid-40s% in the ESPN Analytics model, joining many teams whose at-large fates are in doubt. They have just four wins against the top 50 teams in BPI (and carry SOR, WAB and NET rankings in the 40s). They could also get caught up in a Big East numbers game when it comes to NCAA berths, as they rank fifth in NET in a conference that Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology predicts would send five teams to the Big Dance, with ESPN Analytics' model calling for 4.6 Big East bids. So much of Xavier's case seemingly depends on how the committee views the conference and what the other teams around that 40 range for résumé rankings do this weekend. (Updated March 13 at 4:54 p.m.)
Outside looking in
Villanova Wildcats (4%)
ACC (4.3 expected bids)
Locks
Duke Blue Devils (100%), Louisville Cardinals (100%), Clemson Tigers (100%)
Should be in
There are no teams with a BPI probability from 70% to 94%
Sweating out the selection show
North Carolina Tar Heels (62%)
The latest chapter in the Duke-UNC rivalry saw the Tar Heels fall behind by 24 early in the second half, storm back to potentially tie the game late, only to see a free throw reversed on a lane violation. It was a heartbreaking loss for the Tar Heels, not just because it came against their bitter rivals, but also because of the NCAA tournament implications with UNC on the bubble. But ESPN's forecast model has good news for the Heels: Their NCAA tournament odds stayed steady at 62%. As long as the ACC sends four teams to the Big Dance, UNC has favorable résumé ranks and a 2-1 head-to-head record against SMU and Wake Forest, the conference's other two candidates for that fourth spot. (It's also worth noting that 11 of the Heels' 13 losses have come against top-50 opponents, including to four top-five teams: Auburn, Alabama, Duke and Florida.) There's still uncertainty around UNC's fate, but the Heels are in better position than some other teams in our bubble list. (Updated March 14 at 9:40 p.m.)
VCU makes plays down the stretch to take down George Mason and win the Atlantic 10 tournament.
SMU Mustangs (37%)
Mustering only three points in the final 6:14 of the game, SMU fell on Thursday to Clemson in the ACC quarterfinals. What did that mean for its tourney future? The Mustangs have been a fascinating bubble team all season, with overall metrics -- including rankings around the top 50 in NET, SOR and WAB -- just on the outer edge of at-large consideration despite a near total lack of high-quality wins (just one victory over top-50 BPI opponents.) The Mustangs' chances in the ESPN forecast model fell to 37% after the loss, and that might be overstating their case in a conference that doesn't have any extra NCAA berths to spare. Some of their fate hinges on how many bids the ACC ultimately gets, but more is about whether SMU's case is stronger than North Carolina's or Wake Forest's, both of which have superior résumé metrics in some categories. Unfortunately for the Mustangs, they lost both of their head-to-heads against the Tar Heels and Demon Deacons, lost the same round of the ACC as Wake and watched UNC advance earlier Thursday. It's going to be tough for SMU to argue it's more deserving if things come down to a battle for the fourth NCAA spot out of the ACC. (Updated March 14 at 8:08 a.m.)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (28%)
It's been a rough month for Wake Forest's NCAA tournament chances. Thursday's loss to UNC in the ACC tournament quarterfinals was the fifth in eight games, dropping the Demon Deacons' odds in the ESPN Analytics model down to the high 20s%. Despite competitive SOR and WAB rankings in the 40s, they own just four wins vs. the BPI top 50 (though they have 11 vs. the top 100), and their NET is a surprisingly-low 68th in the nation -- and seventh in the ACC. Wake split its games with UNC and won head-to-head over SMU, so it isn't as though the Deacs' case has nothing going for it. But coach Steve Forbes has to wonder whether Thursday's loss was one more than they could afford. (Updated March 14 at 9:09 a.m.)
Outside looking in
There are no teams with odds lower than 24%
Mid-majors (AAC, MWC, WCC, A-10, MVC, C-USA)
Clinched auto-bids
Colorado State Rams (100%), Liberty Flames (100%), Gonzaga Bulldogs (100%), Drake Bulldogs (100%)
VCU Rams (100%)
Once again, VCU cut things closer than expected in Sunday's Atlantic-10 title game against George Mason -- coming down to a missed potential game-tying 3 in the final seconds -- but the Rams held on to take win No. 12 in their past 13 contests. The victory earned VCU its second A-10 title in three seasons (its first under coach Ryan Odom), and it allowed bubble teams from other conferences to breathe a sigh of relief: No need to contend against VCU for an at-large bid in the eyes of the NCAA selection committee. (Updated March 16 at 3:35 p.m.)
UC San Diego celebrates after beating UC Irvine to clinch the Tritons' first trip to the NCAA tournament.
Locks
Memphis Tigers (100%), Saint Mary's Gaels (100%)
Should be in
New Mexico Lobos (91%)
The Lobos were bounced out of the Mountain West tournament in Friday's semifinal loss to upset-minded Boise State, ending a four-game win streak. That's the bad news; the good is that New Mexico still has around a 90% chance of making the NCAA tournament, according to the ESPN Analytics forecast model, despite the loss. Comparing their résumé numbers to the rest of the bubble, there's little reason to believe the Lobos won't get there, thanks to borderline top-30 SOR and WAB rankings, 13 wins against the BPI top 100 and a regular-season sweep of Utah State. There are still questions about how many teams the MWC will send to the Big Dance -- and who those teams will be -- but it will be shocking if the Lobos aren't one of them. (Updated March 14 at 11:59 p.m.)
Utah State Aggies (77%)
The Aggies fell to Colorado State for the second time this month, this time in the Mountain West Conference semifinals Friday night. Utah State's tourney odds fell to 77% in the ESPN forecast after the loss, so the Aggies aren't assured of a berth when the brackets come out Sunday. However, their at-large prospects are better than most of our teams still here on the bubble, thanks in part to an 11-7 record against top-100 competition, including a win against Saint Mary's (which completed a regular-season sweep of Gonzaga) and a sweep of San Diego State. The Aggies also rank in mid-30s in both SOR and WAB. Other rankings are a bit less enthusiastic -- they're outside the top 50 in KenPom, for instance. But with one of the top three NET marks in a conference Bracketology pegs for four bids, it still seems unlikely for them to not be among the MWC's contingent of tourney teams, despite missing out on a chance at the automatic bid. (Updated March 14 at 9:45 a.m.)
Sweating out the selection show
Boise State Broncos (35%)
Boise State came so far, making it to the MWC title game by knocking off regular-season champ New Mexico in the conference tournament semifinals. But the red-hot Rams of Colorado State put an end to Boise State's run -- and maybe bounced it from the NCAA tourney as well. Saturday's lopsided loss dropped the Broncos' NCAA tournament odds from 69% to 35% in the ESPN model, a reflection of how much of a mixed bag their at-large case is: They rank borderline top 50 in both SOR and WAB, with 10 wins against top-100 competition (including five vs. the top 50) and a third-place ranking within the MWC in NET -- ahead of San Diego State (and even CSU, technically). If the conference follows the latest Bracketology and sends five teams to the Big Dance, there are factors that would seemingly point to Boise State being part of that group, but the Broncos will have to sweat it out on Sunday either way. (Updated March 15 at 8:22 p.m.)
San Diego State Aztecs (30%)
San Diego State swept the regular-season series against Boise State, but that success didn't translate into the postseason, as the Broncos bounced the Aztecs out of the Mountain West tournament in the second round. Their NCAA tournament chances dropped from 51% to 30% in the ESPN Analytics forecast. SDSU had been improving its standing inside the bubble mix for most of February and into March, and its résumé rankings remain decent relative to other bubble teams' (mid-40s in SOR /WAB) with three wins against the BPI top 50 and nine against the top 100. But its NET is around 50th, trailing Boise State within the Mountain West. If the MWC sends three teams to the Big Dance instead of four, the Aztecs could be at the mercy of a comparison with a Broncos team they just lost to for the final spot. (Updated March 14 at 9:17 a.m.)
George Mason Patriots (14%)
The Patriots fell short in the A-10 title game against VCU Sunday, but they played the Rams tough -- nearly forcing overtime with a last-second 3-point try. Still, the loss dropped George Mason's odds of making the NCAA tourney from 39% to 14% in the ESPN forecast, making them a longshot for an at-large nod. They have won only three games against BPI top-100 foes (none vs. the top 50) while suffering four losses to teams outside the top 100. With a résumé that sits outside the top 50 in WAB/SOR and is barely within the top 70 in NET, George Mason probably needed to upset VCU to make the field of 68. (Updated March 16 at 3:32 p.m.)
Dayton Flyers (13%)
Dayton had returned to the bubble with a win against VCU in the regular-season finale last week, but its stay ended up being brief with Friday night's loss to Saint Joseph's. The ESPN model thinks the Flyers have a 13% chance to make the tourney after failing to secure an automatic bid. The Flyers' roughly 60th-place rankings in SOR and WAB -- and a NET closer to 70th -- make them a fringe résumé team at best, even though they have four wins against the top 50. The A-10 has sent two teams to the tourney in three of the past four years, and Dayton ranks second in the conference in NET, with the head-to-head win against VCU as well, but the Flyers will be a tough sell against the rest of this year's bubble. (Updated March 14 at 10:05 p.m.)
Outside looking in
San Francisco Dons (6%), North Texas Mean Green (1%), Bradley Braves (1%)
UAB Blazers (0%)
UAB gave it a valiant run against Memphis in the AAC title game on Sunday, but the Tigers had too much talent, securing the auto-bid. The Blazers had won seven of their previous nine games going into Sunday's contest, but they don't really have an at-large case following the loss: With résumé rankings almost uniformly outside the nation's top 100, there's effectively no chance they'll make the field of 68. (Updated March 16 at 5:40 p.m.)
Other conferences
Clinched an auto-bid
UC San Diego Tritons (100%)
UC Irvine gave the Tritons a bit of trouble early on, but coach Eric Olen flexed their talent and pulled away in the second half of Saturday's Big West title game to make any bubble conversation around their bid irrelevant. UC San Diego is a remarkable story, making the NCAA tournament in its first season of eligibility in Division I. According to ESPN research, UCSD is the third Division I team in the past 50 years to play in the NCAA tournament in its first year of eligibility. The other two? Northern Kentucky in 2017 and North Dakota State in 2009. And along with the Tritons, the big winners of Saturday's contest were other bubble dwellers, who won't have to fend off UCSD's résumé in a competition for one fewer spot in the NCAA field. (Updated March 15 at 11:49 p.m.)
Locks
There are no teams with at least a 95% chance
Should be in
There are no teams with probabilities between 70% and 94%
Sweating out the selection show
UC Irvine Anteaters (12%)
The Anteaters came out strong and seemed like they might engineer an upset over rival UC San Diego in the Big West title game. But the Tritons proved to be too much, pulling away in the second half to win the conference title. Now that UC Irvine must make an at-large case, its résumé rankings around the high 40s to 50s in both SOR and WAB come into focus as not being very favorable versus the rest of the bubble, and they look even worse by NET, KenPom, Torvik and BPI. (UC Irvine remains only a borderline top-100 team by the latter.) With no games against BPI top-50 teams and just one win against the top 100 -- and the Big West not having sent multiple NCAA tourney teams since 2005 -- there's a reason the Tritons are down to 12% tourney odds in the ESPN Analytics model. (Updated March 15 at 11:50 p.m.)
Outside looking in
There are no teams with odds below 24%