Jay Bilas picks every single game in the 2023 NCAA men's basketball tournament

The biggest, most important college basketball day of the season for us talking heads at ESPN is Selection Sunday. It is such an important day that our bosses at the Worldwide Leader momentarily put down their post multimartini lunch cigars for a brief moment to decide whether to rubber stamp the additional expense for Rece Davis, Seth Greenberg, LaPhonso Ellis and me to have coach seats on a Greyhound bus to Bristol, Connecticut, direct from the ACC tournament, in favor of the added expense of allowing us to Uber some 30 miles to our drafty, musty motel to get some much-needed shuteye after an exhausting Champ Week schedule.

Of course, our frugal bosses invariably choose to save the $20 and place us on the Dirty Dog, but due to their long deliberation over the decision, we are the very last passengers to board the already moving bus, and the only remaining seats are next to crying babies and a chatty cowboy with a guitar. Yet, due to our boundless love of the game, we gladly board the Screaming Baby Express for the overnight trip, ingesting exhaust fumes and tripping over dirty diapers -- both adult and child.

When we finally arrive at the ESPN campus in Bristol as the sun comes up on Selection Sunday, we are bleary-eyed, disheveled and weakened without food and water for over 12 hours of nonstop travel on the Dirty Dog. We are then escorted by armed security straight to the "SportsCenter" set, where we are handcuffed to the desk so there will be no escape. Our pampered bosses monitor our on-air performance on multiple flat-screen televisions from their palatial homes, of course, after removing the cucumber slices from their eyes. Clad in satin robes while served breakfast in bed by an enormous staff of nameless valets, butlers, and chambermaids, our bosses wonder aloud why they ever hired us in the first place.

Later that night, after we are allowed an aged tuna sandwich wrapped in cellophane from a back-hallway vending machine, we prepare for that evening's Bracketology show, where we pore through the brackets, matchups, players and coaches from every conceivable angle. Without fail, as the tournament field is revealed, we are handed a bracket for each region to make our picks.

Our bosses usually call into the Bracketology studio from a five-star restaurant in New York City, while they enjoy a palate cleanser before the fourth course of their 11-course meal, to remind us that we have a grand total of five minutes to ponder the matchups and make our picks so graphics can be built and our hasty selections can be conveyed to the viewing and gambling public. Then our bosses move to the most important decision of the night, the soufflé, the strawberries Arnaud, or the La Madeline au truffle for dessert.

"What the hell," one boss will inevitably say, "let's get all three ... each. Take it out of The Bilastrator's measly check."

With only five minutes to make picks for 63 games, we sometimes channel Oliver Twist begging for a little bit more porridge, summoning up the temerity to beg our bosses for just a little bit more time to make our picks with some rational thought. A bellowing "no" can be heard from the backroom speakerphone of the five-star restaurant, followed by laughter and calls for "another bottle of Dom Perignon ... no, wait ... make it Kristal."

Yet, after our bosses order a limoncello and other digestifs while taking out their cigars and cigarette holders, they let their guards down and decide to throw me a bone. If I would truly like more than five minutes to make my picks, they say, I will be allowed to stay up all night to write this article, as long as it is submitted by the conclusion of their morning steam and massage, and as long as I leave the motel without requesting a late check-out. Due to my diligence and love for my job, I accepted their kind offer. The armed security guards outside my motel room door are not a factor in my decision.

My bosses know that my "More Than Five Minute Bracket" is, objectively, a national treasure, full of valuable information from the supercharged gray matter inside my magnificent cranium, and will provide you with the definitive, comprehensive guide to winning your bracket pool, your family bracket challenge, or your office pool that will gain you significant coin. You're welcome.

The "More Than Five Minute Bracket" will guide you to my unimpeachable selections in each game, along with specific reasons why a team can win or lose, and whether an upset pick is worth the risk in your bracket. It is, humbly stated, the gospel truth of Roundball wisdom. This season might have been an unpredictable roller-coaster ride portending a bumpy ride throughout the tournament, so fasten your seatbelts, put your seats in the full, upright position, and stow all tray tables. Through the "More Than Five Minute Bracket," The Bilastrator will provide you with a smooth ride, and get you to your destination in Houston with a legitimate chance to win your bracket challenge. So, sit back, relax and enjoy our Greyhound bus trip (while my bosses fly to Houston on the Disney jet). Don't you just love the Dirty Dog?! I have learned to love it.

MIDWEST | WEST | SOUTH | EAST | FINAL FOUR

MIDWEST REGION

First round

No. 1 HOUSTON vs. No. 16 NORTHERN KENTUCKY

Why Houston can win: Effort, defense, offensive rebounding, turnover margin. No team in America plays harder together than does Houston. I have said many times that Houston leads the nation in playing hard. This team defends with fire, trapping the post, blitzing ball screens, and suffocating opponents with grit and physicality. Then, after pounding you relentlessly on defense, Houston pounds the glass, and has one of the best offensive rebound rates in the country, hauling in over 38% of its own misses. J'Wan Roberts leads the way on the offensive glass, and is relentless in crashing the glass. Over the last 10 games of the regular season, Roberts averaged 13 points, eight rebounds, three offensive rebounds and shot 68% from the floor. Over that same 10-game period, top scorer Marcus Sasser averaged 18 points and shot over 42% from deep. Sasser, who has had an All-America season, has hit as many 3s as 2s and can beat you in transition, get to the rim, and rise up and hit from deep. The leader with the ball is the diminutive Jamal Shead, who somehow is convinced he is 6-foot-9 instead of 6-0. Shead is a winner and, along with Sasser, gets steals and deflections galore. Jerace Walker is the freshman phenom and a near certain lottery pick as a 6-8 multidimensional scorer and rebounder. Houston has a turnover margin of plus-4.6, good for seventh in the nation. The extra possessions Houston generates off turnovers and offensive rebounds help make up for the occasional poor shooting night.

Why Houston can lose: The Cougars are ranked in the top 7 in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency, a clear marker of a Final Four team. Only seven teams in the nation are ranked in the top 25 in both categories, Houston being the lone team ranked in the top 10 in both. Yet, in Houston's closest wins and its very few losses, the Cougars can get into low-scoring games and get a bit stuck offensively. Houston plays at a slower tempo, which can lead to closer games in tournament play. Still, that is nitpicking. When Houston is clicking, this team can win it all because of its consistency and high-level effort

Best win: No. 2 Virginia 69-61

Worst loss: Temple 56-55, missed 10 free throws

Player who can carry a team: Marcus Sasser (four-year starter, best assist-to-turnover season), some up-and-down with his scoring early on, but found his form in February (missed the final three months of last season, eager to make a tournament impact).

Efficiency: The only team in the country that is top 10 in both offense and defensive efficiency.

High-scoring game: J'Wan Roberts has taken on a larger role and has proved to have plenty of upside (Feb. 19-22, two games: 46 points, 15-20 FG, 16-18 FT)

Nugget: This is the sixth straight season under Kelvin Sampson that the Cougars own a top-25 defense (third straight ranking top-10). Flaw: Houston doesn't get to the free throw line at a high rate, nor does it convert at a high rate. Sasser can knock them down, but it can be an adventure with any of the other regulars and March is a time of thin margins.

How Northern Kentucky can win: With 3-point shooting, turnover margin. Northern Kentucky is a mature, smart team that is poised. The Norse sports a +4.2 turnover margin, ranking 11th in the country, and force almost 16 turnovers per game, Top 25 in the nation. The Norse are led by guards Marques Warrick, the top scorer and assist guy, and Sam Vinson, a 6-5 blender who is second on the team in scoring, rebounding and assists, leading the Norse in steals. Warrick averages 19 points and hit 86 3-point shots on the year, and is a natural scorer. Chris Brandon is the best offensive rebounder on a team that can struggle on the glass. Coach Darrin Horn played at Western Kentucky when the Hilltoppers went to the Sweet 16, then coached Western Kentucky to the Sweet 16 before losing to UCLA. He has built a solid program with program players that are committed.

How Northern Kentucky can lose: Rebounding, poor free throw shooting. Northern Kentucky did beat Cincinnati early, but lost games to Toledo, Kent State, Washington State and Florida Atlantic, each by double digits.

Best win: vs. Youngstown State in semifinal (75-63, with a 17-point advantage from the free throw line to offset poor shooting).

Worst loss: vs. UT Arlington (60-56, as a 7.5-point favorite, Northern Kentucky shot 35.1% from the field).

Standout player: Junior guard Marques Warrick led this team in scoring in eight of their final nine games and averaged over 15 points in all three of his seasons for the Norse). Warrick scored 45 points against Tennessee Tech (18-31 FG).

Efficiency: Over 36% of their points come from downtown, a top 50 rate in the nation and the ideal scoring makeup for a team to get hot and shock the world (or to lose the first round game by 40).

High scoring game: Sam Vinson has shot 50% or better in five straight games. Scored 33 points with just one turnover in 71 minutes during the Horizon semi's and finals.

Nugget: Joined the Horizon league in the summer of 2015 (from the Atlantic Sun). A "Norse" was a term used in medieval times, most often referring to Vikings from the area. Flaw: Rank outside the Top 300 schools in D-I in defensive rebound rate. Struggle to close possessions, a major problem for a team that can't outscore you (outside the top 200 in offensive efficiency).

Winner: Houston. While Northern Kentucky plays zone defense and can cause Houston some problems, the Cougars will win.

Upset Chance: Zero Glass Slipper

No. 8 IOWA vs. No. 9 AUBURN

How Iowa can win: Offense efficiency and execution, tempo, 3-point shooting. Iowa can simply outscore teams, rather than lock down teams and win with defense. The Hawkeyes win when their offense carries them, not when their defense locks down, which it rarely does. Iowa scores easily from multiple positions, and takes really good care of the ball. Iowa turns it over on only 14% of its possessions, one of the best turnover rates in the nation. That leads to more shots, more offensive-rebound chances, and more chances to get fouled. Kris Murray, the lefty twin of NBA star Keegan Murray, is the headliner, and he has a complete floor game. Murray averaged 20 points on 47% shooting over this last 10 regular-season games, and is very consistent at a high level. A key will be getting shots for Payton Sandfort, who knocked in 46% of his deep shots over his last 10 regular-season games. Iowa pushes tempo, changes defenses to speed, slow and disrupt the game, and rarely fouls. This is a high-assist, low-turnover team that can make shots.

How Iowa can lose: Defense, rebounding, interior defense. While Iowa can score, so can you. The Hawkeyes are average, at best, on the defensive end. This is not a shot-blocking or lane-protecting team, and the Hawkeyes give up too many open shots, which is problematic, but they don't foul and don't give up free throws, the most efficient place to score on a basketball court.

Best win: Sweep of Indiana

Worst loss: Eastern Illinois 92-83 as a 31.5-point favorite. EIU shot 60%.

Standout player: Kris Murray (brother of Keegan Murray, the 2-year standout at Iowa who the Sacramento Kings took fourth overall). Keegan was a little more of an efficient scorer, but not by much: Kris is a force on the offensive end and the blocked shots/steals combo is a plus.

Efficiency: Six straight seasons with a top-20 offense and a defense that ranks outside the Top 100.

High-scoring game: Filip Rebraca and Tony Perkins join Murray as Hawkeyes with 30-point games this season.

Nugget: Iowa can get hot from deep. The Hawkeyes shot 41.5% from 3-point range during an 8-game stretch in January Flaw: Iowa is one of the weakest 3-point defensive teams in the country, allowing almost 37% from deep.

How Auburn can win: Playing hard, defense, rim protection, offensive rebounding. Nobody, with the exception of Houston, plays harder more consistently than Auburn. The Tigers can really guard the ball, and rank in the Top 25 in defensive efficiency. Auburn's most consistent producers have been Johni Broome, the big man transfer from Morehead State where he was OVC Defensive Player of the Year, and Wendell Green Jr., the ultraquick small guard who is a jet with the ball. Broome is a terrific rebounder, shot-blocker and interior scorer, and leads a defense that is top 10 in the country in blocked-shots rate with his 2.5 blocks per game.

How Auburn can lose: Inefficient shooting, streaky guards. Auburn can struggle to make shots, shooting only 31% from 3-point range, Bottom 50 nationally. Wendell Green Jr. and K.D. Johnson are streaky, as evidenced by Green shooting just 25% from the field over his past five games, and Auburn's wings are athletic but not proficient shot-makers from the perimeter, which allows defenses to pack it in on the Tigers. Auburn ranks outside of the Top 70 in offensive efficiency and that is with a high offensive rebounding rate, which usually leads to high-percentage second looks.

Best win: No. 12 Tennessee (79-70, 18 assists and just six turnovers).

Worst loss: at Georgia (76-64, missed 22 of 28 3-point shots).

Standout player: Wendell Green Jr. (leader in assists and steals, good for some big scoring nights, he had 24 points vs. Tennessee).

Block party: Block over 9% of opponent shots, top 20 in the country.

High-scoring game: Johni Broome (most consistent scorer, wrecks game on the defensive end, had seven blocks vs. Texas A&M, and a handful of games with four-plus blocks).

Nugget: Elite at guarding the 3-point line (highlighted in 33-point win vs. Missouri).

Winner: Iowa. The Hawkeyes can change defenses and cause issues for an inconsistent-shooting Auburn team. Iowa must rebound with the Tigers, but shooting wins this one.

Most likely to beat No. 1 seed: Iowa. You will need offense to beat Houston.

No. 5 MIAMI vs. No. 12 DRAKE

Why Miami can win: Offense, individual shot-creators and shot-makers, experience. The ACC co-champion Hurricanes are an excellent offensive team, ranking in the top 15 in the nation, and the guards and wings are excellent individual scorers who all play within the team concept. But, when Miami needs to get a bucket, Jim Larranaga can give the ball to several players and let them create offense on their own. Miami scores almost 80 points per game, 26th in the nation. Isaiah Wong leads in scoring at 16 points, but four Hurricanes average at least 13.6. Norchad Omier is the man in the middle, putting up 14 points and just under 10 rebounds. He is a difficult matchup for opposing big men and is a very good offensive rebounder. Nijel Pack, Wong and Wooga Poplar can stretch the floor and Miami takes advantage of switches and isolation opportunities. Jordan Miller is a key performer, both on offense and defense. He can be a difference-maker, having averaged 15 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists in ACC games.

Why Miami can lose: Defense, rim protection, the health of Omier. While Miami can really score, opponents feel they can score as well. Miami is rated outside the Top 100 in defensive metrics, which is not a good indicator for reaching Houston. Miami is a good pick to reach the second weekend, but beyond that will take a much-improved defensive effort in the tournament. And, if Norchad Omier is compromised after injuring his ankle early against Duke, Miami is a short-timer in the tournament.

Best win: No. 6 Virginia (66-64, 24 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists from Wong).

Worst loss: At Florida State 85-84 after giving up a 25-point lead.

Standout player: All-ACC guard Isaiah Wong, who had 43 points and just one turnover in the first and second rounds of last season's NCAA tournament before struggling in the second weekend. Wong has been huge as a 3-point shooter after shooting just 30% last season.
Efficiency: Every regular is capable of making free throws and three do it at an elite clip.
High-scoring game: Wong put up 36 points vs. Cornell with five 3-point field goals made.
Nugget: On a per possession basis, Miami fouls as little as anyone, something that will need to sustain given that this team doesn't boast a ton of depth.
Flaw: Four of six Miami losses have come by a single possession. No team cruises through the bracket without being tested.

How Drake can win: Shooting, foul shooting, experience, turnover margin, defensive rebounding, a star to whom you can hitch your wagon. Drake is older, experienced and has no fear. Take this team as an upset pick, even though it might not be an upset when the Bulldogs win. Tucker DeVries is a future pro and just knows how to play. He has a great shot fake, footwork and is always ready to shoot. DeVries, son of the coach, averaged 20 points on 39% from deep during Missouri Valley Conference play, has multiple 30-point games and hit 87 3-point field goals on the season. Point guard Roman Penn averages 13 points and leads the team in assists. Penn can control the game with his handling and leadership. Senior guard D.J. Wilkins hit 68 3-point field goals and has made over 300 in his Drake career. Drake can make perimeter shots, but is not 3-point reliant to win games.

How Drake can lose: Drake is solid, and is a Top 50 offense and defense. Drake will not fold. You will have to play very well to beat Drake.

Best win: MVC title game on March 5 vs. Bradley (77-51, scored 14 of the first 17 points and dominated from start to finish).

Worst loss: Jan. 18 vs. Missouri State (65-62 OT, 7-point favorite, shot 24% from 3).

Standout player: Tucker DeVries, the 6-7 2022 MVC Freshman of the Year, is an efficient shooter who led this team in scoring and scored 22 points in the MVC final, making 8-of-14 shots.

Efficiency: Drake makes over 77% of its free throws as a team, both leading scorers shoot over 80% from the stripe (and 45% from the field).

High-scoring game: DeVreis is the bucket getter, and could be a future NBA player. Consecutive 32-point road efforts in early February at Valparaiso and at Murray State. DeVries led the team in scoring in both of his seasons on campus as the No. 98 prospect out of high school, the highest-rated recruit since 1989 to choose Drake. Of course, he was the first highly rated recruit since 1989 whose father was the head coach, too.

Nugget: Drake ranks top 60 in overall roster experience but bottom 60 in average roster height.

Flaw: More than half of their buckets are unassisted.

Winner: Drake. The Bulldogs can play, and if Norchad Omier is the least-bit compromised after the ankle injury against Duke, Drake can win. This is a weird subregion. If Miami were healthy, the Hurricanes would be a good bet to beat Houston, especially if Marcus Sasser isn't healthy. The medical staffs could decide this region.

Upset Chance: Three Glass Slippers

No. 4 INDIANA vs. No. 13 KENT STATE

How Indiana can win: Superstar play, 3-point shooting around the superstar. Indiana has, arguably, the best player in the country in Trayce Jackson-Davis, and explosive lefty who averaged 21 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 blocks in Big Ten play. TJD passes out of double teams very effectively, or he backs you down and gets above the rim to finish. Xavier Johnson has been injured and is out for the season, but freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino blossomed in his absence, scoring 16 points over his last 10 regular-season games, including 35 points in a home win over Purdue. Northwestern transfer Miller Kopp can knock down open shots and Trey Galloway is a great cutter and Indiana's best perimeter defender. Indiana is solid in most categories, but inconsistency has been a consistent issue, mostly on the road. But, with Jackson-Davis, Indiana can be dangerous when on its game.

How Indiana can lose: Inconsistency away from home. Indiana is 5-7 away from Assembly Hall, including losses to Arizona and Kansas, with neither game particularly close. NCAA tournament games are away from Assembly Hall.

Best win: Two wins over Purdue.

Worst loss: Blowout loss home vs. Iowa 90-68.

Standout player: Trayce Jackson-Davis averaged over 18 points and 8 boards for a third straight year, blocked 3 shots per game, a career best, with fewer.

High-scoring game: Jalen Hood-Schifino put up 33 points against Northwestern and 35 points at Purdue.

Nugget: Indiana rarely takes a bad shot. The Hoosiers are a low-volume team in terms of attempts, but one of the most accurate in the nation.

Flaw: Indiana ranks at or below D-I average in both offensive-rebound rate and free throw rate.

How Kent State can win: Sincere Carry can carry this offense on any given night and this defense is stingy. Indiana is very good, but it did lose six of nine games when shooting under 45% from the field.

How Kent State can lose: It is a bottom-20 team in this field in both rebound rate and assist-to-turnover. They need to do all the little things right to pull off the upset and they've yet to prove they can do that consistently on both ends.

Best win: A pair of wins over Toledo (93-78 to earn the auto-bid on Saturday).

Worst loss: No bad losses (played Gonzaga and Houston both within seven points earlier this season).

Standout player: Senior guard Sincere Carry (over 20 points in four of his past five games, included 35 in regular-season finale vs. Akron and 26 in MAC title game).

Efficiency: Opponents manage to shoot roughly 40% from the field against the Golden Flashes, ranking them in the top 25 in the nation.

High-scoring game: Miryne Thomas (Ball State transfer) dropped 24 points on Akron in the MAC semis (10-for-10 FT) and has 131 collegiate games on his resume (over 35% from 3 in three straight seasons).

Nugget: +4.6 turnover margin is among the very best in the nation (force over 11 per game).

Flaw: They commit a foul on over 27% of possessions, a bottom-50 rate in the nation. Foul trouble could disrupt an offense that ranks outside the top-100 in efficiency as it is.

Winner: Kent State. Indiana wins a seven-game series, but Kent State is very good, has been able to hang with Houston, Gonzaga and Charleston, and this is the type of game that the higher seed can get tight when the little guy hangs around.

Upset Chance: Four Glass Slippers

No. 6 IOWA STATE vs. No. 11 MISSISSIPPI STATE OR PITTSBURGH

How Iowa State can win: Defense, turnover margin, turnovers forced. Iowa State is a difficult team to play against, ranked in the top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency and one of the best defenses in the country. The Cyclones force almost 17 turnovers per game and have a turnover margin of +4, both metrics ranking in the top 14 in the country. Iowa State fills its tank on the offensive end and the better its defense in any given game, the better its offense performs. The Cyclones force a turnover on 25% of opponents' possessions, second in the nation and best among major conference teams. On the offensive end, Gabe Kalscheur is the main man, second on the team in scoring, but when he's on, the best player. Jaren Holmes, who leads the Cyclones in scoring, and Osun Osunniyi, who leads the team in blocks, both transferred in from St. Bonaventure. Iowa State took a blow to its chances with the loss of Caleb Grill, the top 3-point shooter who was dismissed from the team late in the season. For a team that struggles to score, the struggle just got tougher.

How Iowa State can lose: Offensive efficiency, turnovers, Iowa State does not consistently make shots and that puts too much pressure on its defense to generate offense and pitch shutouts. Plus, Iowa State turns the ball over too much itself, which gives opponents the chance to score ahead of its defense. Iowa State lost 12 regular-season games, 11 of which were away from home. A subpar free throw shooting team, Iowa State lost 8 of its last 11 games to end the regular season. Even though it's the Big 12, that is not a good trend line.

Best win: No. 8 KU (68-53, forced 20 turnovers).

Worst loss: Consecutive home losses to Oklahoma and West Virginia.

Standout player: Point guard Tamin Lipsey. He isn't flashy and doesn't score a ton, but he makes half his shots, leads this team in assists and steals while being a viable rebounder for his size.

Efficiency: The defensive efficiency is elite (top 15), even at a bottom 50 tempo.

High-scoring game: Gabe Kalscheur is having his best scoring season and can get hot, he has multiple games with five or more made 3-point field goals.

Nugget: The Cyclones force a turnover on over 25% of possessions, but give the ball away on nearly 19% of possessions.

Flaw: Few teams in the country score a lower percentage of their points from the stripe than the Cyclones.

Why Pitt can win: Experience, perimeter shooting, isolation scorers. Jeff Capel has done a marvelous job with this team. Pittsburgh can score from any position on the floor and is really hard to guard. Floor spacing is king for the Panthers, who take almost half of their shots from 3-point range, which is among the Top 30 nationally, and Pittsburgh hits 3s at a 36% clip. Almost 40% of Pittsburgh's scoring comes from behind the arc. Jamarius Burton is a driver who can fight his way into the lane, into bodies and to the rim, and averages almost 17 points, 5 rebounds and 4.4 assists in ACC play. Burton is strong, very good with the ball and he has shooters around him. Blake Hinson leads Pittsburgh in scoring at 16.5 points and hit 88 3s in the regular season, while Marquette transfer Greg Elliott knocked in 70 on 41% from deep. Point guard Nelly Cummings runs a capable offensive show, averaging 5 assists with 11 points. Over the final five games, Cummings averaged 15 points and 7 assists while shooting 51% from the field. Pittsburgh makes 9.4 3-pointers per game and can really stretch the defense.

Why Pitt can lose: Overall defense. The Panthers bend but don't break on defense, but this is not a turnover-forcing team, with a 0.3 turnover margin.

Best win: Jan. 3 vs. UVA (68-65, +11 points from the FT line).

Worst loss: Jan. 21 vs. FSU (71-64, blew an early 10-point lead. Took more 3s than 2s and shot just 25% from deep).

Standout player: Junior forward Blake Hinson (Mississippi transfer who blends over six rebounds a game with a high-volume, high-accuracy 3-point game).

Efficiency: The Panthers had three players knock down more than 50 triples this regular season and they rank in the top 40 in terms of percentage of points that come from downtown. If they run hot, they can beat anyone (of course, the opposite is also true!).

High-scoring game: Jamarius Burton dropped 31 points in the first UNC game (Dec. 30, 14-17 FG, helped pull off the upset on a night where the Panthers couldn't throw a stone in the ocean from deep -- 5-of-25 on 3s).

Nugget: Three different win streaks of 5+ games this season. They finally made the AP Top 25 in the final poll of February. That was the first poll they made since January 2016.

Flaw: Having a plethora of 3-point shooters is a blessing and a curse. Over 35% of the Panthers' points come from distance, leaving the offense without answers if they run cold for a stretch.

Winner: Iowa State. Battle-tested and physical defense. Pittsburgh can score. Iowa State can muscle the Panthers.

Upset Chance: Two Glass Slippers. Make shots through contact, keep dancing.

No. 3 XAVIER vs. No. 14 KENNESAW STATE

How Xavier can win: This is a terrific offensive team that really shares and moves the ball and can score from all five positions. Xavier has versatility and is a very good passing team. The Musketeers lead the nation in assists with over 19 per game, assisting on 67% of its baskets, and rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency. Xavier can shoot, hitting 40% as a team from 3-point range, ranking in the top 5 nationally. Xavier's best player is UTEP transfer Souley Boum, a dynamic point guard who averaged 20 points over the last eight games of the regular season, shooting 40% from deep. To me, the best player is wing Colby Jones, who defends as well as he scores. Jones averaged 17 points on 57% from the field and 41% from 3-point range over that same eight-game span. Jack Nunge rebounds and can knock down both post and perimeter shots, but Xavier needs a healthy and prepared Zach Freemantle back in the fold to make a Final Four, even though Xavier finished 5-3 when he was out. The news that Freemantle is not returning this season, which broke on the eve of the Big East tournament, is a gut punch to Xavier's chances to reach Houston.

How Xavier can lose: Defense. The Musketeers are hardly pushovers on the defensive end, but it is not the lead story with Xavier, who ranks outside the top 75 in the defensive metrics.

Best win: Beat UConn twice in less than a month.

Worst loss: Jan. 18 at DePaul (73-72, Fremantle was active, 8.5-point favorite).

Standout player: Solely Boum, among the most dangerous high-volume 3-point shooters in the Big East.

Efficiency: Among the very elite in both assists per game and assist-to-turnover rate, making their top-notch eFG% something that should sustain.

High-scoring game: Zach Freemantle hung 30 points on Georgetown while also leading the team in rebounds (11), offensive rebounds (4) and assists (7), and Xavier will miss his productivity and leadership in the tournament.

Nugget: Eleven straight wins from Nov. 30-Jan. 15 included wins over UConn, Creighton and Marquette.
Flaw: Opponents have proved accurate from deep against Xavier, touching 36% Kennesaw State.

How Kennesaw State can win: Resilience, experience, free throw rate. Kennesaw State is a remarkable story. Coached by Amir Abdur-Rahim, a former All-Southland guard at Southeastern Louisiana and the brother of former Cal and NBA star Shareef Abdur-Rahim, the Owls won a grand total of one game in 2020, going 1-28. Three years later, Kennesaw State is ASun Champion and playing in the NCAA tournament. The Owls are led by Chris Youngblood, Terrell Burden and Demond Robinson, all upperclassmen who have been through the grinder and fought through it to get here. Youngblood is the top scorer and 3-point shooter, with half of his field goals coming from deep. Burden is a downhill driver who leads the team in assists and steals, and Robinson is the leading rebounder and shot-blocker. Kennesaw State is physically strong and can take contact and play through it.

How Kennesaw State can lose: Size, rebounding, free throw shooting. Kennesaw State is not a good free throw shooting team, and it gets to the line a lot. With a smaller front line, the Owls can have a tough time against Power 5 bodies on the glass.

Best win: Swept Liberty, and won automatic bid with 67-66 win after Burden made a free throw with one second remaining.

Worst loss: Queens 83-76, 7-point favorite and led by 3 at the half.

Standout player: Senior guard Terrell Burden (career year in scoring, FG percent, 3P% and rebounds), 10+ points in 19 of his past 20 (team-high 19 in A-SUN Title game, GW FT).

Body seeking: Nearly 27% of offensive possessions see them draw a foul, top-50 rate in the nation.

High-scoring game: Chris Youngblood had six games with 20+ points and shot over 40% from deep for a second straight year. Nuggets: 26 wins is a program record ... by 12 (this is the program's first winning season in Division I). Abdur-Rahim is a former Tom Crean assistant and helped recruit Anthony Edwards.

Flaw: Outside of Youngblood, the high-usage players on this team struggle from the free throw line, shooting under 70%, and rank resulting outside of the top 300 in Division I.

Winner: Xavier. Without Zach Freemantle, the Musketeers are unlikely to reach a Final Four. But the guards will make the difference in this game.

Upset Chance: One Glass Slipper

No. 7 TEXAS A&M vs. No. 10 PENN STATE

How Texas A&M can win: Free throw rate, offensive rebounding, forcing turnovers. Buzz Williams, the SEC Coach of the Year, has a gritty, tough, hard-driving team that beats people with activity and toughness. After a 6-5 start, with losses to Murray State, Colorado, Boise State, Memphis and Wofford, Texas A&M ripped off 17 wins in the next 20 games to be one of the hottest teams heading into the NCAA tournament. While the Aggies are not a great shooting team, they can make shots at times and have a top-30 rated offense, largely because of a 37% offensive rebound rate and a top 5 free throw rate. Wade Taylor IV is the best shooter, hitting over 70 treys at a 37% clip. Taylor is a quick, speedy, disruptive defender who is also a natural scorer who averaged 20 points on 42% from deep over the past five games of the regular season. Taylor averages 16 points and leads Texas A&M in assists and steals. Tyrece Radford, the lefty driver from Virginia Tech, is relentless in transition and going to the rim, and he battles on the offensive glass. Big men Henry Coleman and Julius Marble, transfers from Duke and Michigan State, are also glass-eaters and big bodies. Texas A&M forces turnovers, which leads to easy buckets in transition, with a 21% turnover rate.

How Texas A&M can lose: Overall shooting, defensive rebounding. If your offense helps your defense by taking good care of the ball, you can get openings against the Aggies on the offensive glass, and, Texas A&M is not a great shooting team. Aside from Taylor, IV, there is inconsistency from the field.

Best win: No. 11 Tennessee 68-63, 28 free throws made.

Worst loss: Wofford 67-62, led by four with four minutes remaining.

Standout player: Wade Taylor IV, leading scorer, automatic free throw shooter. Turnovers can be an issue, but had a 7-assist, 0-turnover effort at Mississippi.

Efficiency: The free throw percentage is strong and their edge grows by them ranking among the leaders in free throw attempts per game.

High-scoring game: Tyrece Radford dropped 40 at Auburn after scoring 22 at Kentucky (7-11 FG).

Nugget: Attack mode. Usually you get to the line or you're a volume 3-point shooter in this age of specialization. Two Aggies, Taylor and Radford, attempted over 150 FTA and 110 3-point shots.

Flaw: The Aggies commit a foul on 27% of possessions, a bottom-50 rate in the country.

How Penn State can win: 3-point shooting. This might be the best 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten, and if the NCAA tournament were a game of HORSE, Penn State would win it. The Nittany Lions shoot 39% from deep as a team and score just as many points from deep as from inside the line. Seth Lundy, Andrew Funk and Jalen Pickett have hit over 200 3-point field goals combined. Pickett is among the best all-around players in the nation and an All-America candidate. Pickett averages over 17 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists, and no other player in the country is putting up those numbers in so many important categories. He also leads Penn State in steals. Complete player.

How Penn State can lose: Rebounding, free throw rate, turnover margin. The Nittany Lions can get beat up on the glass and do not get extra possessions through offensive rebounding or forcing turnovers to generate easier shot attempts. Plus, Penn State is in the bottom 5 in the country in free throw rate. The Nittany Lions need to hit shots, because they don't impact the game in enough other key areas to advance past really good teams.

Best win: OT win at Northwestern on March 1, win at buzzer vs. Maryland March 5.

Worst loss: Feb. 5 at Nebraska (72-63, just 10 2-point field goals and one made free throw).

Standout player: Cousy Award finalist Jalen Pickett (who spent three seasons at Siena), has had a career-best scoring season, with a field goal percentage, shooting over 50% after hitting just 42% last year.

Efficiency: Elite jump-shooting teams can thrive when the passing is strong and it is here. Over 1.6 assists per turnover this season, a top-15 rate in the country.

High-scoring game: Sharp-shooting Andrew Funk (Bucknell transfer), over 76% of his shots have been from deep, and Funk can rain down deep shots, getting scorching hot in a hurry: Funk ended the regular season with consecutive games with 4 3-point field goals, and rained in seven triples against Indiana and Illinois.

Nuggets: The top-four scorers on this roster all flirt with 40% from deep. Jalen Pickett averages roughly 32.5 PRA (points+rebounds+assists). Kemba Walker put the 2011 Huskies on his back with a 33.4 PRA. Could Pickett offer up such a run?

Flaw: Bottom 100 in rebound rate. Can they compete on a night where the jump shots aren't falling?

Winner: Penn State. Texas A&M is more disruptive defensively, but Jalen Pickett is the real deal.

Most likely to beat No. 2 seed: Texas A&M can be a problem for Texas, but the Longhorns are playing so well, I think they reach the second weekend against either the Aggies or the Nittany Lions

No. 2 TEXAS vs. No. 15 COLGATE

How Texas can win: Balance, scoring guards, depth, forcing turnovers. Texas is one of a handful to teams that are ranked in the Top 25 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which makes the Longhorns a good pick in your bracket. Texas pressures the ball, does not allow middle, and forces turnovers on 23% of defensive possessions, over 16 per game, ranking 17th in the nation. Turnovers put Texas out in transition to score 13 fast break points per game, and Texas plays at a much quicker tempo this season versus last season. A +4.4 turnover margin gives Texas an advantage in possessions. The Longhorns are athletic and deep, and score 29 points per game off the bench, 9th in the country. Marcus Carr, the high scoring transfer from Minnesota, is a First Team All-Big 12 selection and the leading scorer at 16 points per game, and leads the Longhorns in assists, steals and 3-point field goals made. His last ten regular season games were not his best, as Carr shot only 29% from deep. While Tyrese Hunter has not been shooting well, he is still capable, but Sir' Jabari Rice has stepped off the bench to be the best Sixth Man in the Country. Rice has made 50 3-point field goals and has the best shot fake in college basketball. Over his last ten regular season games, Rice averaged 17 points on 47% from 3-point territory. The X-Factor is Timmy Allen, a versatile wing that moves without the ball as well as any player in the country, and can be isolated in the post on mismatches.

How Texas can lose: Rebounding. Texas is not a great rebounding team, but can hang on the glass. The Longhorns have lost eight games, but the quality of loss is mind-blowing. Texas has lost only one game to a team outside of the NCAA tournament field, at Texas Tech.

Best win: No. 2 Gonzaga, No. 11 Baylor, No. 2 Kansas.

Worst loss: No bad losses, but a bumpy end to regular season after a 19-4 start.

Standout player: Senior guard Marcus Carr (2nd year with UT after transferring from Minnesota, 3P% is a career best, more steals than turnovers during the regular season).

Efficiency: Top 40 in ... turnovers forced, turnover margin and assist-to-turnover ratio. High scoring game: In the first 5 games of February, Rice and Carr rotated leading Texas in scoring.

Nugget: This is the 6th time the Longhorns have earned a top-3 seed. In 4 of the previous 5, they advanced to at least the Sweet 16, including a trip to the Final Four in 2003 behind TJ Ford.

Flaw: The Longhorns have a short roster and have been outrebounded on the season.

How Colgate can win: Offensive execution, 3-point shooting, cutting. Colgate runs a beautiful offense, and this is one of the best perimeter shooting teams in the country. Colgate shoots 51% from the field and hit 41% of its deep shots, and the Raiders average about 19 assists per game. Five players average double figures, and Tucker Richardson leads the team in scoring, assists and steals. Oliver Lynch-Daniels and Ryan Moffatt have combined for 139 made threes.

How Colgate can lose: Defensive rebounding, free throw rate, free throw accuracy. Colgate can score, but can they consistently make stops? The Raiders are not a great defensive rebounding team, and they do not generate sticklebacks on the glass. Yet, this group has lost only once since January 1.

Best win: Season sweep of Navy, early season win over Syracuse Worst loss: at American, 61-60; lost to Auburn by 27.

Standout player: Guard Tucker Richardson (team leader in points and assists, 154 career games on his Colgate resume, scoring has gradually increased each season).

Efficiency: The best thee-point shooting team in the country, top 10 in overall field goal percentage and assist-to-turnover rate.

High scoring game: Keegan Records led the team with 21 points and 12 rebounds in Patriot league final with 20 or more points in 3 of his past 4 games.

Nugget: Five players that average at least 10 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. Among the elite in shooting from the field but one of the worst teams in the field from the free throw line (66 percent).

Flaw: Bottom 100 in 3-point defense and bottom 100 in free throws made per game.

Winner: Texas. Unless the Longhorns are gassed from the Big 12 title, the Longhorns win.

Upset Chance: One Glass Slipper

Second round

No. 1 HOUSTON vs. No. 8 IOWA

This game depends upon Marcus Sasser. Healthy, and Houston wins. Out of commission or compromised, Iowa can win. The key for Iowa will be switching defenses and keeping Houston off of the offensive glass. I believe Sasser will play, and Houston will win because of their will to win. Houston is one, tough team. Winner: Houston.

No. 12 DRAKE vs. No. 13 KENT STATE

Will both upsets happen? Maybe, but I like Drake, and the slipper will fit. Tucker DeVries can be this year's darling, and that is one, skilled player. Roman Penn is an experienced point guard that will not back down to anyone. This could also be a Costanza match-up...if my instincts are always wrong, the opposite must be right. If this game is Indiana vs. Miami, take Miami and accept my profound apology. I was punchy from my ride on the Dirty Dog. Winner: Drake.

No. 6 IOWA STATE vs. No. 3 XAVIER

Defense versus offense. Watch for Colby Jones, one of the truly underrated complete players out there. Iowa State can bully Xavier, but Souley Boum and Jones can be the difference. Take Xavier. Winner: Xavier.

No. 10 PENN STATE vs. No. 2 TEXAS

If Timmy Allen plays after missing the Big 12 tournament, he could be matched up with Jalen Pickett. That will be a battle. Texas can really score, and with Tyrese Hunter playing well again, Texas has the more dynamic backcourt. Winner: Texas.

Sweet 16

Regional semifinal: XAVIER vs. TEXAS

This will be a great match-up of dynamic backcourts, with Souley Boum and Colby Jones going against Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter, with Jabari Rice coming off the bench. Sit back and watch Rice's shot fake, and marvel at his competitive spirit. Xavier can easily be clipped by Iowa State, but I like the Musketeers to get to Texas. And, I expect Texas to go on to the Elite Eight. Winner: Texas

Regional semifinal: HOUSTON vs. DRAKE

This is where the ride ends for Drake. Houston has been to the last two Elite Eights, and this will make the third straight. Rebounding and suffocating defense will be the margin of victory. Winner: Houston

Elite Eight

Regional final: HOUSTON vs. TEXAS

This bracket looks like it was set up so at least one team from Texas would reach Houston. Well, one will, and I think it will be Texas. The question is whether the Longhorns can put the Big 12 title in the rear view mirror and move on. If they do, they will move on to the Final Four. Winner: Texas.

WEST REGION

First round

No. 1 KANSAS vs. No. 16 HOWARD

How Kansas can win: Ball movement, assist rate, 2-point proficiency, defensive versatility. Bill Self is The Bilastrator's National Coach of the Year. After losing 74% of the offensive production from last year's national championship team, Self molded this group into a No. 1 seed and champion of the toughest league in the country. Remarkable. Kansas is terrific but nowhere near unbeatable. The Jayhawks are ranked in the top 25 in offense and in the top 10 in defense, a good indicator of tournament success, as is the gauntlet of a schedule they have played. Jalen Wilson, the Big 12 Player of the Year, has been the unquestioned leader and one of the most consistent producers in the country. Wilson averages just under 20 points, over 8 rebounds and almost 6 shots at the foul line per game. Over the last five games of the regular season, Wilson shot only 38% from the field and was 1-for-18 from deep. But he has significant help. Gradey Dick is among the best shooters in the country, with one of the quickest releases and logo range. Dick averaged almost 15 points and 5 rebounds this season, hitting over 70 threes on about 40% shooting from deep. Kansas has two of the best defenders in the country in Kevin McCullar, the Texas Tech transfer and two-time Naismith Defensive Player of the Year finalist, and Dajuan Harris, Kansas' best defender and the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. Both have over 60 steals on the season. Harris is the key. When he is aggressive Kansas is title-worthy and when he scores 10 points or more the Jayhawks are unbeaten. Kansas can switch any screen or exchange, and usually switch up to take something away, not just to cover up. K.J. Adams is the undersized big man, the Big 12's Most Improved Player and explosive around the rim.

How Kansas can lose: 3-point shooting, lack of interior scoring, size. Kansas is not a big team, and does not get consistent bench production, although that has been improving toward the postseason. With the exception of Dick, Kansas can struggle to consistently make shots, but because the Jayhawks are so good at moving the ball and the defense, it opens up downhill drives. Kansas assists on over 60% of its buckets, top 20 in the country.

Best win: No. 9 Baylor 87-71 after trailing by 13 at the half. Victories over Duke, NC State, Missouri and Indiana, and won the Big 12 title outright.

Worst loss: No bad losses, all were against Top 25 teams Standout player: Jalen Wilson, a clear First Team All-American and one of the most competitive players in the country.

Efficiency: They are top-30 in offensive and defensive efficiency this year, just like they were last, but this year it's the defense ahead of the offense. High scoring game: Wilson put up 38 points against Kansas State, and Gradey Dick had 24 against Baylor and 26 at Oklahoma State.

Nugget: Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun were the leading scorers on the title team from last year. Wilson and Dick average more points, more rebounds, fewer turnovers and shoot better from the line..

Flaw: The starters average roughly 85% of the Jayhawks' points. And, Kansas is small in the post. Foul trouble for KJ Adams could spell trouble in a Tournament game.

How Howard can win: Howard is coached by former DeMatha Catholic and Duke player Kenny Blakeney, who won two national championships as a player under Mike Krzyzewski in 1991 and 1992. Blakeney's first title was won in Indianapolis... over Kansas in the title game. The Jayhawks get even here. Howard has some turnover issues, but the Bison can shoot pretty well. They gave VCU a solid effort and beat Harvard, which posed a challenge to Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse.

How Howard can lose: Turnovers, guarding the ball. Howard is among the bottom dozen teams in the country in ball security, although that has improved later in the season.

Best win: Beat Norfolk State twice in March (65-64 in MEAC final).

Worst loss: December 3 at Hampton (74-65) Standout player: Sophomore guard Elijah Hawkins (team leader in points and assists, 3P% improved from under 30% last season to over 48% this season).

Efficiency: They shoot nearly 38% from 3 as a team, a Top 40 rate in D-I High scoring game: Jelani Williams (Penn transfer) was the only Bison to reach double figures in the title game (20 points, 6-11 1FG, 7-8 FT).

Nugget: With a near 32% offensive rebound rate, this team is one of the best at creating second chances.

Flaw: More than 16 turnovers per game.

Winner: Kansas.

Upset Chance: Zero Cinderella Rating: Zero Glass Slippers.

No. 8 ARKANSAS vs. No. 9 ILLINOIS

Why Arkansas can win: Athleticism, talent, defensive versatility. Arkansas has had a number of tough breaks this season, mostly because of injury. The Razorbacks lost Trevon Brazile for the season and with him might have gone its Final Four bid. Add in the fact that freshman sensation Nick Smith Jr. has been in and out of the lineup and unable to establish any continuity, and you have a team that has not been able to fully develop together. Eric Musselman and his staff have done a great job to get Arkansas to this point, yet one wonders what Arkansas could have been if healthy all season. This team had Final Four potential. Still, Arkansas can be formidable with its athleticism, positional size and grit. Ricky Council IV is like the engine that never stops revving, Devo Davis is a tenacious defender and Anthony Black is a super talented freshman point guard. The wild card is Nick Smith Jr., a lottery pick who can score in bunches and take over a game. Integrating Smith into the fold is not easy, but it's better to have his scoring punch available than not. Arkansas can get to the rim on offense, and is a top 20 defensive team with great length, the ability to switch screens and exchanges, and protect the rim. Smith allows for more shot making, something that has been lacking.

Why Arkansas can lose: Youth, perimeter shooting, health. Arkansas is young in key spots, and this is not a proficient perimeter shooting team. The Razorbacks shoot just 32% from deep and are among the less proficient free throw shooting teams in the field. And Arkansas puts opponents at the foul line too much, which can be problematic in the tournament. Make no mistake, this team can win. But, there are too many teams that can beat the Razorbacks to believe that the recent tournament success will be duplicated.

Best win: Feb. 7 at UK (88-73, never trailed by more than a bucket).

Worst loss: Four straight losses in early January that included a 97-84 defeat at Vanderbilt.

Standout player: Wichita State transfer Ricky Council IV is the leading scorer and a serious threat inside the arc.

Efficiency: This is the third straight season Eric Musselman has his Backs ranking in the top 20 in defensive efficiency.

High-scoring game: Council IV leads this team in scoring, but three of his teammates also posted games with 25-plus points (Nick Smith Jr., Anthony Black and Jalen Graham.

Nugget: The Razorbacks opened this season No. 10 in the AP Poll, a third straight season in which they, at some point, cracked the top 10. Prior to this recent run, Arkansas hadn't been a top-10 team for even a second since the 1995 team led by Corliss Williamson.

Flaw: Arkansas shoots and makes too few 3-point shots, and has a high foul rate. Giving up easy points is a problem and without the aid of deep shot-making, any comeback scenario can be difficult.

How Illinois can win: Isolation scoring, defense. Illinois has length, versatility and playmaking ability, especially in isolation. Illinois can defend and defend with anyone. The Illini protect the lane and protect the rim, with a top 10 2-point defense and a top 10 blocked shot rate. Terrence Shannon Jr. leads the way, averaging 17 points and almost 5 rebounds, leading the Illini in free throw attempts and steals. Matthew Mayer, the Baylor transfer, is the wild card. He can go off, and hit challenged shots with no conscience. Mayer has hit 67 3-point shots and leads the team in blocked shots. Over the last 10 games of the regular season, Mayer averaged almost 18 points and 6.5 rebounds. Coleman Hawkins and RJ Melendez are versatile wings who can score and switch and Dain Dianja is the Behemoth from Baylor, taking up space in the lane. Ty Rogers has come on of late and is a downhill driver who can get to the rim.

How Illinois can lose: 3-point shooting, free throw shooting. While the Illni take 42% of its shots from deep, they it only 31% of them, ranking in the bottom 50 of Division I.

Best win: Neutral site wins against UCLA and Texas.

Worst loss: Penn State 74-59 as a 10.5-point favorite.

Standout player: Texas Tech transfer Terrence Shannon Jr., career highs in minutes, points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals.
Size Matters: Illinois is top 20 in average height and know how to use it: no team in this year's field blocks a higher percentage of shots than the Illini.

High-scoring game: Shannon has takeover-ability. Poured in 26 points vs. Northwestern, nearly outscoring the Wildcats' starting five (28 points).

Nugget: Only 20 teams in all of D-I had less minute continuity from a year ago than the Illini (per KenPom). None of those 20 even sniffed a NCAA berth.

Flaw: Illinois is an inaccurate 3-point shooting team. That can be salved with playmaking, but Illinois is also well below average in assist rate.

Winner: Illinois

Most likely to beat No. 1 seed: Illinois and Arkansas are both very talented, and capable of great outings. But, both are inconsistent in bringing A-game performances. Because Illinois is the better perimeter shooting team, favor the Illini, but barely. Illinois can cause Kansas more problems with length, athleticism and experience.

No. 5 SAINT MARY'S vs. No. 12 VCU

How Saint Mary's can win: Tempo, cutting, 3-point shooting, defense, turnover margin. This is an efficient, tough team that can defend with physicality. The Gaels know how to play, and how to disrupt your rhythm. Your immediate focus will be on the floppy-haired freshman guard Aidan Mahaney, who looks like Henry Steele from the movie "One on One," played by Robbie Benson. Mahaney is a swashbuckling guard with uncommon confidence and swagger. He is terrific off pick and rolls, and he makes tough shots, especially in the second half of games. The toughness of the team comes from Logan Johnson, the Gaels' best defender and downhill driver. Johnson is physical and has a great first step and a little jump hook in the lane. He shoots the most free throws, and gets steals and deflections. Saint Mary's shoots from deep at a 37% clip (top-50 nationally), making eight 3-point field goals per game, which is a lot considering the low possessions and slow tempo. Alex Ducas is a terrific catch-and-shoot threat; he must be forced to bounce it. Mitchell Saxen is the physical rebounder and lane protector, playing mostly drop coverage on ball screens. Saint Mary's is a top-10 defensive team and can muddy up actions you like to run, blow up dribble handoffs, and turn you into a late clock isolation team.

How Saint Mary's can lose: A poor shooting night, handling pressure. Saint Mary's does not deliver knockout blows; they win on the card. But they never get knocked out. Get ready for 15 long, tedious rounds. This team will be a Virginia-like or Wisconsin-esque out. Pressure, especially full-court pressure, can bother Saint Mary's. But turnovers are not always the goal ... you can force the Gaels to take time to break the pressure, then you have to guard their offense for fewer seconds on the shot clock in the half court.

Best win: No. 12 Gonzaga (78-70 in OT, 4 starters scored 12-plus points)

Worst loss: Colorado State (62-60)

Standout players: Logan Johnson, Aidan Mahaney, Alex Ducas.

High-scoring game: Johnson has had a spectacular end to the regular season. Johnson averaged 27 points per game over a five-game stretch, including a 34-point and a 31-point outburst. Johnson leads Saint Mary's in assists, steals and scoring.

Nugget: Sophomore wing Augustas Marciulonis is the son of Naismith Hall of Famer Saraunas Marciulonis.

Flaw: Saint Mary's is a bottom-10 team in pace, which can be a strength when playing from ahead, but is a problem when in comeback mode. It is easier to slow a game down than to speed one up, and Saint Mary's will get its tempo ... period.

How VCU can win: Defense, turnover margin, turnover rate, free throw rate. The Rams have an outstanding defense that forces turnovers in both full-court and half-court situations. Ace Baldwin Jr. is the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. Brandon Johns Jr. is physical enough to do well against the Gaels' older, big bodies, and David Shriver is an outstanding shooter who can get hot in a hurry. Shriver also has the best mustache in the college game. VCU cannot speed Saint Mary's up, but the Rams will press, and slowing down the advance by Saint Mary's could lead to some turnovers, but it will also take time off the shot clock, and VCU will have to guard fewer of the Gaels' actions. That is one way VCU can disrupt the disruptor.

How VCU can lose: Take quick shots, and spend more time of possession on defense. Saint Mary's is tough to deal with and very physical. VCU's offense has to help its defense by taking good shots.

Best win: vs. Fordham (80-61, forced 22 turnovers and shot 55% on 2s).

Worst loss: vs. St. Bonaventure (61-58, lost as an 11.5-point favorite).

Standout player: senior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (over 56% from inside the arc, double-double upside).

Efficiency: Top 25 in defensive efficiency High scoring game: Baldwin dropped 37 points on Saint Louis (12-15 FG, 4-5 3s, 9-9 FT) Nugget: They are a top-20 team in steals rate, taking it away from opponents on 13% of possessions, which leads to run outs and advantage situations.

Flaw: The Rams get to the free throw line as often as any team, but rank outside the top 200 in free throw percentage.

Winner: VCU. The Rams are not as physical as Saint Mary's, but with pressure, VCU can be the more disruptive team.

Upset chance: Two Glass Slippers. The upset pick here is worth the risk in your bracket, because neither team is likely to beat UConn in the next round.

No. 4 UCONN vs. No. 13 IONA

How UConn can win: Size, depth, athleticism, rim protection, offensive rebounding. The metrics love UConn, and rightfully so. Early in the season, UConn was a clear Final Four favorite but fell off for a time. Now, the Huskies are back, and in a big way. UConn is rated at a top-10 offense and a top-25 defense. Behind All-Big East big man Adama Sanogo, freshman center Donovan Clingan and the super athletic and versatile Andre Jackson, the Huskies can crash the offensive glass and have a 39% offensive rebounding rate, best in the country. On the defensive end, UConn gets out and guards the 3-point line, in large part to Sanogo and Clingan protecting the lane and the rim. Wing shooter Jordan Hawkins, All-Big East First Team, is one of the best long-range marksmen in the country and can make challenged shots. Point guard Tristen Newton has triple-double ability and leads UConn is assists, free throw attempts and steals. UConn also has solid free throw shooting, which will be key late in games.

How UConn can lose: An athletic team that can spread the floor and put Sanogo and Clingan in ball screen situations can have some success against UConn. But there are not many that can beat this team playing its best.

Best win: No. 18 Alabama 82-67, 25 points for Sanogo.

Worst loss: Lost five of six games (Dec. 31-Jan 18) after a 14-0 start.

Standout player: Jordan Hawkins

Rebounding: As good a rebounding team in this field outside of Purdue. Over 37% offensive rebound rate is driving an efficient offense.

High-scoring game: Jordan Hawkins has struggled with consistency, but twice in the final five weeks of the regular season did he post three straight games with 20+ points.

Nugget: UConn peaked at No. 2 in the AP Poll. In four of the past five seasons in which it has peaked that high, the Huskies advanced to at least the Elite Eight (two titles).

Flaw: The Huskies rank among the elite in terms of percentage of points scored from the free throw line.

How Iona can win: Defend the 3-point line, force turnovers. Rick Pitino's squad does a nice job forcing turnovers and challenging the 3-point line on the defensive end, but to beat UConn, the Gaels will have to make shots. Walter Clayton and Daniss Jenkins have hit 69 and 56 3-point field goals, respectively. How Iona can lose: Rebounding, interior play. Iona is smaller and does not rebound at a high rate. Yet, this team has been on a roll. Iona hasn't lost since January, but also hasn't played anyone like UConn.

Best win: March 4 at Rider (80-78, +18 points from 3). 14 straight wins to close the season.

Worst loss: Dec. 22 vs. SMU (85-81).

Standout player: Sophomore Walter Clayton Jr. (leading scorer, showed star potential in MAAC Quarters with 21 points, 11 rebounds and 0 turnovers in 33 minutes).

Efficiency: Gaels block nearly 10% of shots, tops in this field.

High-scoring game: Daniss Jenkins (27 points in the MAAC finals vs. Marist, 20+ points in three of final five games)

Nugget: Hold opponents to under 30% shooting (top 20 in the country) and rank top 100 in the nation in 3-point percentage.

Flaw: A bottom-100 team in defensive rebound rate. If they can't end possessions, this is a quick Round 1 loss.

Winner: UConn. It would be nice to see some Pitino magic, but UConn should win. Unless the Huskies are careless and uninterested, UConn should advance.

Upset chance: Zero Glass Slippers (but, caution, Saint Peter's came out of the same conference last year and went to the Elite Eight. Nobody saw that coming, either

No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 ARIZONA STATE OR NEVADA

How TCU can win: Transition, speed, defense, turnover margin. TCU has great team speed, and Jamie Dixon has let them loose this season. The Frogs average 19 fast-break points per game, and force a turnover on 23% of opponents' possessions, causing close to 16 turnovers per game with a turnover margin of +3.4, 25th in the nation. With top scorer Mike Miles Jr. in the line-up, TCU is 17-5 and almost 10 points per 100 possessions better with Miles playing. Miles averages over 17 points, and can get to the foul line. Damion Baugh is one of the underrated passers in the country, averaging 13 points and 6 assists, and leads TCU in steals. For TCU to win in March, Miles and Baugh need to carry much of the scoring load. Eddie Lampkin took leave of the team during the Big 12 tournament, and we wish him the best. If he does not return, that's a blow, but TCU is talented enough to overcome it. And, TCU has to generate offense from its defense. But, remember, this team played in the toughest conference in the country... seeing different opponents may lead to better results.

How TCU can lose: Shooting inconsistency, defensive rebounding. TCU shoots under 30% from 3-point territory. That is not a happy stat for tournament longevity.

Best Win: No. 25 Iowa and No. 19 Baylor.

Worst loss: No real bad losses, but they did drop four straight at the beginning of February.

Standout player: Mike Miles Jr. TCU's four-game losing streak occurred with Miles sidelined (knee). In his first game back, TCU dropped 100 points on Oklahoma State in a 25-point win, after losing to the Cowboys 79-73 with Miles sidelined.

Efficiency: Jamie Dixon had this team defending at an elite level last season and that has stuck as they are again in the top 10% of D-I in defensive efficiency.

High-scoring game: Miles scored 33 in the one-point win at Baylor (buried a late 3 to close the gap, assisted on the game-winning bucket with four seconds left: lethal scorer, mature playmaker).

Nugget: The best offense is a good defense. This elite defense forces plenty of turnovers, and while this offense has its flaws, they rank among the very best in fast break points scored per game.

Flaw: TCU doesn't shoot many 3s and for good reason. The Frogs don't shoot it particularly well. But in this era of shooting, can TCU continue to advance if they aren't proficient from behind the line? That question will be answered.

How Nevada can win: One of the best free throw shooting teams in the country takes on a team that is bottom-10 in this field at chasing in freebies. If this game is decided at the stripe, it won't be close, and even if it is, they hold the edge in a tight game.

How Nevada can lose: They can go ice cold from the field: nine games this season with a FG percentage under 40 percent.

Best win: Jan. 31 vs. then No. 22 San Diego State (75-66)

Worst loss: Feb. 27 at Wyoming (80-71)

Standout player: Senior guard Jarod Lucas (leading scorer, best on team in 3-point and free throw percentage.

Efficiency: A top-15 in both free throws made per game and free throw percentage (over 79% as a team).

High-scoring game: Will Baker had 5 games with 20-plus points this season.

Nugget: They own a top-20 roster in terms of average height, but have been outrebounded for the season.

Flaw: They get under 15 points a night from their bench.

How Arizona State can win: They own a top-30 defense in the nation and can ugly it up with the best of them. Nevada plays slow, and if this is a race to 55 points, ASU can advance.

How Arizona State can lose: The 3-point shooting can be brutal: under 30% in 17 games this season. Nevada is too good for ASU to go through an extended scoring drought, something that is certainly possible if they clank a bunch of 3's in a row.

Best win: February at then No. 7 Arizona (89-88)

Worst loss: Nov. 13 at Texas Southern (67-66 OT)

Standout player: Senior guard Desmond Cambridge Jr. (went from Brown to Nevada before landing at Arizona State, led team in scoring, went off for 27 points vs. USC in Pac-12 quarters)

Efficiency: Held opponents under 40% in FGs.

High-scoring game: Sophomore Frankie Collins (Michigan transfer) led this team in assists per game and showed some scoring chops this winter with 13+ points in five straight games.

Nugget: They are a fringe bottom-100 rebounding team and a fringe bottom-50 team at preventing offensive boards.

Flaw: The FG percentage defense is great ... if you can pay it off. They often don't (bottom-50 in FG percentage of their own, including under 32 perfect from 3).

Winner: TCU. For a second consecutive season, the Horned Frogs boast a top-20 defense in the nation and both play-in teams fighting for the right to face them are bottom 15 in this field in eFG percent.

Upset chance: I like Nevada to advance past Arizona State, and with a team FT% north of 79%, their path to an upset of TCU would be the officiating. If that game is a nickel-and-dime type of effort from the zebras, maybe the Wolf Pack can pile up the cheap points and grind this out. But I'm not picking it.

No. 3 GONZAGA vs. No. 14 GRAND CANYON

Why Gonzaga can win: Scoring, turnover margin, experience. No surprise, Gonzaga is a contender ... again. The Zags are the only team in the country that has earned seven consecutive Sweet 16 berths, and this team can make it eight straight. Gonzaga is one of the best and most efficient offensive teams in the field, leading the nation in scoring at 88 points per game and leading the nation in field goal percentage at over 52%. The Zags score from multiple positions, whether inside with footwork king Drew Timme or outside with Julian Strawther, Rasir Bolton and Malachi Smith, all of whom have made at least 38 threes or more. Strawther is the key guy. He can get you 40 in a game, and he shoots 42% from 3-point range. Over the past 10 games of the regular season, Strawther averaged 19.5 points per game. Gonzaga is not the same transition and cutting team it was last year and scores a little bit differently, but this team can still score with anyone. Gonzaga shoots 59% from 2-point territory because of Timme, transition and spread floor cuts. Last year, Gonzaga was top 5 in the nation in pace. This year, the Zags are top 50 in pace. Wins over Michigan State, Kentucky, Alabama, Xavier and Saint Mary's prove that Gonzaga is legit ... again. Don't underestimate the Zags.

Why Gonzaga can lose: Defense, and limiting Strawther. A real key is Julian Strawther's productivity. In wins, Strawther averages over 16 points. In Gonzaga's losses, Strawther averages 8 points on 29% shooting. The best way to guard Strawther is to crowd him, be physical with him, and not help off of him. The Zags are not a poor defensive team, but getting consistent stops is not a major strength. Anton Watson is Gonzaga's best defender and has great hands and versatility. But, this is not the rim protecting team Mark Few had in 2017 or 2021. Gonzaga can get to the Sweet 16 on offensive production, but beyond that, defense is what may stand in the way.

Best win: Neutral court vs. then No. 4 Alabama (100-90 behind 29 points and 10 rebounds from Drew Timme) Worst loss: Loyola Marymount (68-67).

Standout player: Junior Guard Julian Strawther (second year starter has improved FT% and 3P percent). Strawther showed his takeover ability with 40 points against Portland on January 28 and 26+ points in 3 straight games from Feb 11-18.

Efficiency: 5 straight seasons as a top-3 team in the nation in offensive efficiency.

High-scoring game: Strawther had the 40-point game and Timme has flirted with that number a few times (38 at Pacific on Jan. 21). Nugget: Drew Timme won't shy from the bright lights of tournament play: 22.7 PPG on 61.5% FG for his career in NCAA tournament play.

Flaw: Gonzaga's defense ranks outside the top 75 in efficiency, a contrast from last season's top 10 ranked defense.

How Grand Canyon can win: Grand Canyon has LaPhonso Ellis' son Walter, and if nice guys don't finish last, bet on Grand Canyon.

How Grand Canyon can lose: Gonzaga is a bit like Duke ... it took it longer than normal to figure things out, but the Zags are playing well and don't seem to lose on the first weekend. At least, the Zags have been to seven straight Sweet 16s, the only team in the nation to do that.

Best win: Friday vs. Sam Houston in semis (78-75, +33 points from 3-point range)

Worst loss: Feb. 15 vs. UT Rio Grande Valley (77-76).

Standout player: Sophomore guard Ray Harrison (leading scorer at 17.7 PPG, 31 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 turnover in 37 minutes during the WAC Finals ... also had a 30-point game in Round 1 where he got to the line 13 times).

Efficiency: They are top 60 in the nation in everything 3-pointer based: 3PM per game, 3P% and 3P% defense. If there's a profile for basketball in 2023 ... that's it!

High-scoring game: Chance McMillian is a deadeye shooter (44.6% from 3) that can heat up fast (5 triples vs. Sam Houston State in the WAC semis). Nugget: They rank 63rd in roster experience. Flaw: Their defensive efficiency is in the bottom half of Division I, often times forcing the offense to be elite given the limited number of possessions (bottom 75 in pace).

Winner: Gonzaga. Drew Timme should have success against Grand Canyon.

Upset Chance: Zero Glass Slippers

No. 7 NORTHWESTERN vs. No. 10 BOISE STATE

How Northwestern can win: Defense, turnovers forced, turnover margin, experienced guards. The Wildcats are disruptive and tough on the defensive end and establish the rhythm of the game on the defensive end. Northwestern forces a turnover on 22% of opponents' possessions, ranking in the top 40 nationally, and has a +4.3 turnover margin, 10th in the nation. Chase Audige is the best defender with 74 steals and has made over 60 3-point field goals. Boo Bouie has had an All-Big Ten season, averaging over 17 points and leading the team in assists with almost five per game. Bouie averaged 20 points and 6 assists on 39% shooting from deep over the last five games of the regular season. Ty Berry is a good role player and a good passer. Northwestern's top five scorers all shoot over 80% from the foul line.

How Northwestern can lose: Offensive inefficiency. Northwestern is winning without shooting well consistently. The Wildcats shoot only 32% from deep and only 47% inside the arc, both rank outside the Top 250 nationally. If Northwestern shoots it well, the defense makes the difference. If Northwestern doesn't shoot it well, the defense still gives it a chance.

Best win: No. 1 Purdue 64-58, overcame a seven-point halftime deficit.

Worst loss: Penn State 68-65 in OT, third straight loss, scored just three points in final 4.5 minutes of regulation.

Standout player: Boo Buie (if you want to introduce him: real first name is Daniel, shares a birthday with Larry Bird and a birth month with The Bilastrator -- a great omen.

Efficiency: They grind you. Top 50 in defense and among the slower tempos in the field.

High-scoring game: Chase Audige had 28 against DePaul, 24 points against Minnesota in January and made 10 triples over the course of three straight wins in early February.

Nugget: For a second consecutive season, Northwestern ranks among the elite with a 15% turnover rate, though the turnover rate is higher on the road.

Flaw: Northwestern ranks outside the Top 250 in both 2-point and 3-point accuracy.

How Boise State can win: Defense, 3-point defense, defensive rebounding. The Broncos play with verve, and coach Leon Rice, a longtime Gonzaga assistant, runs a system that players embrace. Rice doesn't have traditional positions, he terms his five on the floor "Runner, Gunner, Sniper, Trigger and Crash." Rice figured players get so wound up in positions, he'd take it out of play. Rice, who still plays pick-up ball with his three sons, has built a Gonzaga-style program at Boise State and has done a masterful job. His son, Max Rice, plays the Sniper position and has blossomed in the last year. Rice averages 14 points and has hit 59 3-point shots at a 42% clip. He is an automatic free throw shooter and works well with top scorer Tyson Degenhart. In his last 10 regular-season games, Rice averaged 17 points on 44% from 3-point range. The Broncos play loose but smart and are fearless competitors. While the Broncos are good offensively, they win because they guard the 3-point line. Boise State holds opponents to just 30% from deep. Boise State has quality wins over Texas A&M, San Diego State, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah State.

How Boise State can lose: Offensive inconsistency, superior athleticism. At times, like most teams, Boise State can be limited by aggressive defensive teams with athleticism. The Broncos don't generate extra possessions through offensive rebounds or turnovers. But, this team can play.

Best win: No. 16 San Diego State 66-60 avenging a 20-point loss to the Aztecs.

Worst loss: No bad losses, but lost two straight in late December to Santa Clara and Nevada.

Standout player: Max Rice has scored more points this season than in his first three combined, shooting over 40% from deep this season, after posting 26.7% a last year.

Efficiency: Boise State has a top 20 defense for a second consecutive season.

High-scoring game: Tyson Degenhart dropped 28 on New Mexico on 12-20 from the field, giving Boise State a chance to win on a night where his teammates missed 17 of 19 3-point attempts.

Nugget: 13-2 this season when turning the ball over on less than 14% of their possessions

Flaw: Boise State forces turnovers on a low percentage of possessions, with few steals. Can Boise State advance without live ball turnovers?

Winner: Boise State. This is offense and defense against defense. Northwestern is good, but Boise is a good upset pick.

Most Llikely to beat No. 2 seed: I still like UCLA, even without Jaylen Clark. That is why an upset pick here doesn't hurt your bracket if it doesn't come through.

No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 UNC ASHEVILLE

How UCLA can win: Experience, defensive versatility, grit, team defense, turnover margin. While hopes were sky-high for UCLA, the news that Jaylen Clark is out for the season with an achilles injury is devastating for UCLA's title chances. Clark is one of the nation's best defenders and transition scorers, and a driver who will take it right into your chin. Without Clark, the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, UCLA takes a major hit because the Bruins lose his toughness and productivity. UCLA can replace his minutes, but not his presence. He is such a valuable asset on both ends of the floor. With Clark, UCLA is legit. While not a knockout punch team, the Bruins are in every game because they guard people hard, and they limit mistakes that lead to easy scores and free throws. UCLA has an utterly amazing plus-5.7 turnover margin, second in the nation. That alone gives UCLA extra possessions. The Bruins are a deliberate team, but only turn it over 10 times per game, while forcing 16 turnovers from opponents. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has had an All-America season, and is an NBA player. He can post, hit turnaround jumpers, knock in open 3s, and he operates his best in the middle of the floor, and averages 17.5 points and eight rebounds on 49% shooting. Jaquez is the Pac-12 Player of the Year and the main threat to get to the foul line. Tyger Campbell is a Final Four point guard and a winner.

How UCLA can lose: Perimeter shooting, defensive rebounding, free throw rate. UCLA does not take or hit a lot of 3-point shots, and only Campbell (45 3s) and David Singleton (65) need to be taken away on the catch. On others, you can close out short and take away driving lanes. UCLA is certainly no pushover on the glass, but it does give up some offensive rebounding opportunities to opponents, and the Bruins are not a big free throw generating team.

Best win: March 4 vs. Arizona (82-73, forced 17 turnovers and overcame an early 11- point hole, ended the regular season with 10 straight wins). Worst loss: No bad losses.

Standout player: Jaquez has displayed some nice scoring consistency down the stretch. In early February, he posted 4 straight games with at least 20 points and 8 boards.

Efficiency: No team defends better, overall, not just in terms of points allowed, but in forcing turnovers (over 23% of opponent possessions).

High scoring game: Jaquez is the scoring option while Campbell sets up the offense, but the point guard has flirted with 20 points on a handful of occasions and has developed into a feared 3-point shooter after knocking down just 26% in his first two seasons.

Nugget: Campbell showed poise in 2021 as a sophomore. In UCLA's final three games on a surprise Final Four run, he averaged 13.7 points on 55% shooting with 3.5 assists for every turnover committed.

UNC Asheville can win: 3-point shooting, 3-point defense, two star players. Coach Mike Morrell was an assistant under Shaka Smart at both VCU and Texas, and has methodically built a winning culture at UNC Asheville. This team has older players who have experience, good talent and toughness. Drew Pember, the Big South Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in each of the past two seasons, led the Big South in scoring with 21 points per game. He is not an elite athlete, but very skilled and can shoot, handle it and pass it at 6-10. Pember is not alone, though. Taijon Jones is the school's all-time scorer, yet he gets second billing to Pember, and is willing to do the dirty work for the Bulldogs. Add in Fletcher Abee and Caleb Burgess, and UNC Asheville has multiple options.

How UNC Asheville can lose: Athletic, versatile defensive teams with size can bother the Bulldogs. But what team doesn't have issues with that?

Best win: Season sweep of Radford (one win coming during an 18-1 spurt to end the season) Worst loss: at Georgia State (74-68, 32% from 3-point range, 69% from the free throw line).

Standout player: Pember, who is shooting over 38% from 3-point territory.

Efficiency: Top 20 in the nation in 3-point accuracy and defending the 3. High scoring game: Fifth-year senior Tajion Jones shot a career-best 45% from deep this season (30 points vs. Charleston Southern, hitting 8-of-11 from deep)

Nugget: The Bulldogs flank Pember with a pair of guards who shoot over 40% from 3 (live by it, die by it ... those two guards take over 60% of their shots from deep).

Flaw: More turnovers than assists this season, their team assist-turnover rate is among the 100 worst in the country.

Winner: UCLA. The Bruins' defense is just too good. Even with injuries, take the Bruins. Mick Cronin is wearing a suit, for crying out loud.

Upset Chance: Zero Glass Slippers.

Second round

No. 1 KANSAS vs. No. 9 ILLINOIS

Illinois has the athleticism, length and defense to cause Kansas problems. But, if Kevin McCullar plays at full strength, Kansas should win. Remember, Illinois beat Texas at Madison Square Garden and has players that can go off on you, especially Shannon Jr., who has battled Kansas when at Texas Tech. Still, I like Kansas to win here. Illinois can be inconsistent and Kansas has been very consistent at a high level. Winner: Kansas.

No. 12 VCU v. No. 4 UCONN

UConn has the size and skill at every position to win this game, but VCU can cause Marquette-type problems for the Huskies. Still, I like UConn to prevail because of interior size and strength. UConn point guard Tristen Newton has to be at his best to handle VCU's pressure. Winner: UConn.

No. 6 TCU v. No. 3 GONZAGA

The Frogs are battle-tested, but so is Gonzaga. Given Gonzaga's tournament history and Drew Timme, I like Gonzaga to make its eight straight Sweet Sixteen. Winner: Gonzaga.

No. 10 BOISE STATE vs. No. 2 UCLA

Whether it is Boise or Northwestern, UCLA has Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell. They will not let UCLA lose. Winner: UCLA.

Sweet 16

Regional semifinal: KANSAS v. UCONN

The speed and perimeter, dribble-drive attack of Kansas goes against the size and depth of UConn. While Kansas is more experienced, UConn is deeper. Dajuan Harris holds the key to victory. If Harris plays aggressively and well, Tristen Newton has to match him. I think Newton will rise to the occasion. Winner: UConn.

Regional semifinal: GONZAGA vs. UCLA

A West Coast dream matchup, and if it is anything like the last time these two teams faced off in the NCAA tournament, look out. I like Gonzaga to win, but if Jaylen Clark were healthy and available, UCLA would be the favorite. Winner: Gonzaga.

Elite Eight

Regional final: GONZAGA vs. UCONN

I have a good feeling about UConn. While Gonzaga is the better scoring team, UConn has superior size and if Jordan Hawkins can get free for shots, UConn wins. The Hawkins-Strawther matchup will be "must see," as will Sanogo and Clingan trying to limit Timme. Again, Newton will be a key factor. Gonzaga is not the defensive and rim-protecting team it has been in the past, and UConn should take advantage. Winner: UConn.

SOUTH REGION

First round

No. 1 ALABAMA vs. No. 16 TEXAS A&M-CC or SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

Why Alabama can win: Talent, depth, length and athleticism. The Tide is ranked in the Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which puts this team among a select few. Alabama has the nation's best all-around player in freshman phenom Brandon Miller, they are two deep at every position, and defend, rebound and score in an efficient manner, Miller can consistently give you 20 points per game, and break out for 36 or 40. He also gets a ton of his own misses around the glass, as evidenced by his stickleback against Auburn. Freshman guard Jaden Bradley, a downhill driver that gets to the rim, freshman big Noah Clowney, a long armed rebounder, finisher and 3-point threat, and the experienced Charles Bediako, an offensive rebounder and shot blocker that plays drop coverage on ball screens to limit threes and encourage mid-range jumpers and floaters, give Alabama quality players at every position, Nimari Burnett is an excellent and versatile defender that has proven a valuable piece to the puzzle at both ends. Alabama is an analytics driven team that plays much like James Harden's Houston Rockets, eschewing middle game shots for open threes and rim attacks for high percentage finishes, drawing help and getting to the foul line. In fact, Alabama spaces the floor to areas they call "Houston spots" so that they are stepping into the 3-point line rather than toeing the line. You won't see Alabama taking 15-footers. But, the Tide's defense is built to make opponents settle for them. And, this is a tough minded team. Of the games I called for the Tide, especially the win at No. 1 Houston, this young team had every rationalization to fold, but didn't. They may get beat, but they won't quit, and they won't go quietly.

Why Alabama can lose: Turnovers and youth. Alabama turns the ball over at a 19% clip, which is in the bottom third of Division I, and the Tide only force turnovers on less than 16% off opponents' possessions. That margin is concerning, especially against teams that pressure them. And, Alabama is young in key spots, ranking in the bottom third of Division I in experience. The youth hasn't been a negative during the regular season, especially given the Tide's impressive comeback wins at Houston, at Arkansas and at Auburn in really tough situations. But, this is the NCAA Tournament, and you never know where youth will rear up and send you home.

Best win: December 10 at then No. 1 HOU (71-65, the second time they beat the top-ranked team in a week span ... defeated UNC on November 27 in 4 OTs).

Worst Loss: January 28 at Oklahoma (93-69, Alabama shot 6-of-22 from 3).

Tempo: Efficiency on both ends of the floor is a prerequisite, but to do it while ranking in the Top m5 nationally in adjusted tempo? Stuff of champions.

High scoring game: Brandon Miller hung 41 on the Gamecocks in South Carolina on February 22, including the game winning layup in overtime with a second left on the clock (sweet drive and contested finish on the left side for the righty).

Nugget: A run to glory would give Nate Oats 8 tournament wins with Alabama in the 3 tournaments since the pandemic. Pre-Oats, this program won 7 tournament games in 24 seasons.

How TAMU-CC can win: Free throw shooting, offensive rebounding. Look, expecting an upset from the Islanders is a long shot, and hopeful. But, they get to take a free swing at someone without the expectation of winning. The Islanders already won a meaningful title, the Southland. The Islanders do it with defense, and have the Southland Defensive Player of the Year in Terrion Murdix, but he was injured early in the conference title game (how many top players have been injured lately? Maddening). If he is compromised in the NCAA Tournament, chances of an upset are significantly reduced. Texas A&M-CC does not have a win anywhere near the top half of Division I, but nobody expected Cinderella at the Ball in the first place.

How TAMU-CC can lose: Overall defense, rim protection, finishing around the rim. Can the Islanders win against a big shot? Protecting the rim and scoring at the rim will be important, and the Islanders are not proficient in either area.

Best win: Northwestern State in Southland title game (75-71, overcame early 16-point hole)

Worst loss: at Lamar (68-66, blew 16-point lead, committed 17 turnovers).

Standout player: Forward Isaac Mushila (leading rebounder, double double threat that is a 84% FT shooter, 17 rebounds in regular season finale vs. Texas A&M-Commerce)

Efficiency: They shoot over 36% as a team from 3, a top-60 rate in the nation.

High scoring game: Trevia Tennyson (leading scorer, 20 straight games with 10+ points - 20+ points in 6 of those games) Nugget: Over 80% from the FT line as a team, joining Villanova as the only programs to make that claim in 2023.

Flaw: Opponents shoot over 54% from inside the arc on Texas A&M-CC, a bottom 50 in Division I

How SEMO can win: Free throw rate, free throw accuracy, two bucket getters at the guard spot. Brad Korn, the former Southern Illinois forward that played for both Bruce Weber and Matt Painter for the Salukis, has done a nice job building back the SEMO program. But, the Redhawks lost 16 games before the OVC Tournament run, and rank in the bottom third of Division I in both offense and defense. Yet, SEMO plays uptempo and has two bucket getters in Chris Harris and Philip Russell, both of whom can drive it, hit open shots, and manufacture something for themselves.

How SEMO can lose: Rebounding. SEMO does not get many offensive rebounds, and can get beat up on the glass.

Best win: vs. top-seeded Morehead State in the Ohio Valley semifinal, 65-58, held a 41-33 rebound edge and overcame an 11-point deficit.

Worst loss: 8 straight losses in December, including a 31-point loss at Iowa.

Standout player: Sophomore guard Phillip Russell, who started his career at St. Louis as the Billikens top scorer and assist man, scored 18 or more points in three of the four conference tournament games and had a pair of 37-point efforts during the regular season

Efficiency: 21.5% of their points come from the free throw line, Top 50 in the country in free throw rate. Louisiana's top two scorers combine to make 80% of their free throws

High scoring game: Chris Harris scored a team high 26 points in the OVC title game against Tennessee Tech with 11 of 13 from the foul line and just a single turnover in 40 minutes Nugget: Senior guard Israel Barnes can help drive an upset, scoring 19 points, grabbing 7 rebounds with 0 turnovers in the OVC final ... Barnes had steals in the semifinal and five 20-point or more games this season

Flaw: Out rebounded on the season, ranking 326th in Division I.

Winner: Alabama Upset.

Chance: Zero Glass Slippers

No. 8 MARYLAND vs. No. 9 WEST VIRGINIA

Why Maryland can win: Grit, defense and ball control. The Terps are a "grind it out" team, playing at a deliberate tempo, especially on the defensive end. And, while the Terps shoot under 32% from 3-point range on the season, Maryland has hit almost 45 percentk from deep over the last six games of the regular season. Jahmir Young is the top scorer averaging 16 points and 3 assists per game, and Young can go off in any given game. Young leads the team in scoring, assists and steals, Donta Scott is a good wing rebounder, while Julian Reese is the top rebounder, offensive rebounder and shot blocker.

Why Maryland can lose: Lockdown defensive teams that can play half court games have given the Terps some problems.

Best win: No. 3 Purdue, 68-54, outrebounding the best rebounding team in the nation, 35-23.

Worst loss: At Nebraska, 70-66 OT, 33.3% FG Standout player: Jahmir Young, transfer from Charlotte, made 4 3-point field goals vs. Northwestern, made 13 free throws vs. Ohio State.

Efficiency: They slow the tempo (bottom 25% of D-I) and then squeeze value out of every possession (top-50 in both offense and defense.

High Scoring: Donta Scott has has had breakout games (24 points on 9-of-12 shooting vs. Miami, and brings over 100 starts of experience with him into this tournament.

Nugget: This is a team that relies heavily on their primary four options for roughly 72% of their points. Plus, Maryland beat St. Peter's and UMBC this season, two of the darlings of the NCAA Tournament over the past few years. That has to be a good sign, right?

Flaw: Maryland ranks in the bottom 25% of D-I in assist rate (percentage of assisted field goals). That means they rely a lot on self creation and that can be tough to bank on as the level of competition increases.

How West Virginia can win: Offensive rebounding, free throw rate, forcing turnovers. This is not a typical Bob Huggins team. In several of the past years, you would hear Huggins lament his team's inability to make shots. Not this year. Five different Mountaineers have hit 25 or more 3-point field goals, led by Erik Stevenson, the Wichita State/South Carolina/Washington transfer that may be as old as Huggins himself. Stevenson leads the Mountaineers in scoring, averaging almost 16 points per game, hitting 75 3-point field goals in the regular season. Stevenson's last five regular season games saw him average 20 points on 44% from deep. Kedrian Johnson leads the team in assists and steals, and has been excellent over the last five games of the regular season, averaging 12 points and 3 steals, shooting 49% from the floor. As usual, West Virginia pounds the offensive glass, corralling 35% of its own misses, Top 30 in the country. West Virginia gets to the foul line at a 41% rate, which is why the Mountaineers need to take care of the ball. Turn it over and you cannot get fouled.

How West Virginia can lose: Defense.

Best win: Kansas State, 89-81, 3 Mountaineers scored 20 or more, and the team made 22 of 25 free throws

Worst loss: Dropped 5 games in a row, but had no bad losses.

Standout player: Erik Stevenson's perimeter shooting improved in each season, he is an 80% foul shooter, and had 23 or more four straight games to end the season.

Freebies: They are a slightly better than average FT% team, but the volume in which they get there is elite and that has them ranking top-40 in percentage of points that come from the line (easy points and opponent foul trouble is never a bad thing).

High scoring game: Stevenson is the primary threat, but senior Kedrian Johnson has a handful of 20-point efforts and has seen his scoring average double from a season ago.

Nugget: 10 players on this team average over 10 minutes a game, with no one consistently playing 30 minutes.

Flaw: Outside the Top 200 teams in defensive rebound rate, also outside the Top 200 in turnover rate.

Winner: West Virginia. Talk about a coin flip.

Most Likely to Beat No. 1 Seed: Maryland is more likely to beat Alabama, but neither is likely to happen. But, remember, Alabama laid an egg at Oklahoma when nobody saw it coming.

No. 5 SAN DIEGO STATE vs. No. 12 CHARLESTON

How San Diego State can win: Defense, rebounding, quality depth, experience. The Aztecs are an older, physical and long armed team that can really defend. San Diego State holds opponents to under 30% from the 3-point line, and can challenge shots at the rim. With good depth, the Aztecs can keep fresh bodies on yours, and they play with a "hit first" mentality. Matt Bradley is the top scorer, a lefty that is reliable, loves without the ball, and uses craftiness and fakes to get shots off. Bradley is the only Aztec that averages in double figures scoring. But, the others are capable and take turns putting in scoring performances. Guards Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammell can both defend, and were All-League defenders before transferring to San Diego State. Inside, long, energetic athletes like Micah Parrish, who has been great off the bench late in the season, Jaedon LeDee, and Kesha Johnson are all strong contributors that don't care who gets the credit. While this team is built on a foundation of defense and rebounding, with great close-outs and box-outs, San Diego State is ranked outside the Top 40 in overall offense. Three of San Diego State's losses were to Arizona, Arkansas and Saint Mary's. This team is tested.

How San Diego State can lose: Inconsistent offensive production. San Diego State does not always score easily, but this is still a very good team that can beat somebody in the NCAA Tournament.

Best win: Boise State, 72-52, shot 67% on 2-pointers.

Worst loss: New Mexico, 76-67 as an 8-point favorite.

Standout player: Matt Bradley (leading scorer in his second season with SDSU after transferring from California, proved he can take over against Air Force with 27 points on 9-of-12 shooting.

Bench Scoring: The Aztecs get over 25 points a night from their reserves. They may lack a true superstar, but it's tough to slow all of their options.

High scoring game: Adan Seiko. The senior shooter picks his spots, but he did hang 25 points (7 triples ) on Utah State and put up 18 vs. UNLV.

Nugget: The Aztecs record a steal on nearly 11% of possessions, sparking fast break situations that can help break open games.

Flaw: The turnover rate north of 17% is basically average, but may not be good enough.

How Charleston can win: Pace, 3-point shooting, depth, offensive rebounding, low turnover rate. Charleston has won 31 games and has the sixth longest win streak in the country entering the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Pat Kelsey is a Skip Prosser disciple and took Winthrop to the NCAA Tournament, and has transformed the Cougar program with his energy and passion. Charleston plays at a fast tempo, and plays a lot of people, and Charleston is 3rd in the nation in bench scoring. In fact, And, in the last ten games of the regular season, the top scorers have come off the bench, Pat Robinson and Ben Burnham, both shooting over 50% from deep. The Cougars push the ball and shoot it quickly, believing that the best shot opportunities come earlier in the clock, rather than grind it out against a set defense. Almost half of Charleston's shots come from 3-point territory, among the Top 10 "three happy" teams in the country, but Charleston shoots only 34% from the arc as a team. Long shots equal long rebounds, and Charleston gets 35% of those rebounds, among the nation's Top 20 offensive rebounding teams. If it is long or loose, the Cougars are going after it. Dalton Bolon, a transfer from Division II West Liberty, leads CoC in scoring at 13 points per game, scored 16 points against North Carolina and hit over 60 3-point field goals. Ante Brzovic is a 6-10 stretch big from Croatia by way of Southeast Oklahoma State, the same school that produced Dennis Rodman. The wild cards are Reyne Smith, and Aussie 3-point shooter that has made over 90 treys on the season, and Ryan Larsen, a speedy Wofford grad that has NCAA Tournament experience.

How Charleston can lose: Overall athleticism. Charleston is vulnerable to what can get to most mid-majors, super athletic teams with positional size. But, with the pace Charleston sets, they can hang with most teams, and have a legit chance to knock someone off.

Best win: Won 10 straight games (including a pair of wins over UNC Wilmington.

Worst loss: at Drexel (70-69, blew an 8-point halftime lead, allowed 63% shooting from inside the arc Standout player: Ryan Larson (Wofford transfer, team leader in assists and steals, gamehigh and season-high 23 points in CAA Title game vs. UNC Wilmington).

Rebounding: Charleston grabs over 54% of available rebounds (Top 20 in the country), despite ranking outside the Top 200 in average roster height. How? 8 different players average over 3 boards per game.

High scoring game: Pat Robinson III dropped 30 points at Hampton (5-6 3pt). That was the finale of a 3-game stretch that saw him score 15+ points in all 3 games and make 65% of his shots.

Nugget: Five players average in double figures and a different player led them in scoring in each of their final four games. Flaw: A sub-34% 3-point shooting team. Ben Burnham is their best marksman (45% from deep at 6'7"...a tough cover).

Winner: San Diego State. It is scary to go with defense when Charleston can knock in a bunch of deep shots. But, San Diego State is strong and physical, and should be able to slow down the game. The winner gets Virginia in an almost certain slow tempo game. An upset pick here is worth the risk, but I really think San Diego State will win.

Upset Chance: Two Glass Slippers

No. 4 VIRGINIA vs. No. 13 FURMAN

How Virginia can win: Tempo, defense, low turnover rate. Virginia has the best defensive guards in the country in Rece Beekman and Kehei Clark. Clark gets great pressure on the ball, and gets up underneath ball handlers to make it difficult to initiate offense. Beekman gets steals, deflections and is incredibly disruptive. You have to know where he is all the time. Due to Virginia's slow tempo, playing against the Cavaliers is like going to the dentist office, it is unpleasant and you just have to get through it. Tony Bennett went with a small line-up with Ohio transfer Ben Vander Plus at the 5-spot, which makes Virginia more versatile and allows more spread court action. But, Vander Plan broke his hand during a defensive drill before the ACC Tournament, and is out for the season. That takes away line-up flexibility, and a capable 3-point shooter to space the floor. The emergence of Ryan Dunn, the next great Virginia defensive forward, has helped, but Virginia still can have scoring difficulties from time to time. Armaan Franklin has settled in after his transfer from Indiana, and is shooting the ball significantly better. He is now a Virginia player, and has found the right rhythm and is a fabulous cutter. Jaden Gardner is an outstanding mid-range and interior scorer, with a great shot fake and first step, that is capable of exploiting match-ups and having big scoring games.

How Virginia can lose: Lack of size, perimeter shooting, interior scoring, rebounding. Virginia is not a knockout punch team. All of the Cavaliers' games are close, and Virginia lives in close games and know how to act in pressure situations. But, it is hard to imagine the Cavaliers beyond the Sweet 16, unless someone falls down in their bracket. I really enjoy watching this team play, and Virginia can cause problems for just about anybody, but firepower can overpower this team.

Best win: No. 5 Baylor, which was huge considering the offensive ability of the Bears' guards.

Worst Loss: At Boston College, 63-48 loss as a 9-point favorite.

Standout player: Armaan Franklin, Virginia's eading scorer who is much closer to 40% from 3 than the 30% he shot last season after transferring from Indiana.

Efficiency: Far and away the nations best team in terms of assist-to-turnover ratio this season. That's what you get when Kihei Clark and his 150-plus games of experience are leading a -- let's be kind -- patient offense.

High scoring game: Franklin leads this team in scoring, so the fact that he leads in 20- point games shouldn't be surprising. That said, Jayden Gardner, Ben Vander Plas and Clark all have 20-plus point games on their resume this season.

Nugget: The Cavs won 8 straight to open their season and had another win streak extend to 7 games in January. It only takes 6-in-a-row to be crowned national champs.

Flaw: Over 35% of points vs. UVA come from deep.

How Furman can win: Pace, finishing ability, ball and player movement. Furman averages 81.8 points per game, 11th in the nation, and does it on 17 assists per game, 8th in the nation. Three different players have over 100 assists on the season because Furman moves the ball, moves the defense and attacks, and the Paladins make 59% of its two-point field goals, second in the nation only to Marquette. While Furman is not a drop dead 3-point shooting team, but still ranks among the most productive 3-point teams in the country, making almost 10 per game. Mike Bothwell leads the Paladins in scoring with 18 points per game on 52% shooting, averages 16 points and leads the team in rebounding and steals, but Jalen Slawson is the best all-around player on the roster. Both JP Pegues and Marcus Foster have hit over 60 3-point field goals on the season. This team is balanced and is very well coached by Bob Richey. If they make shots, Furman can win a First Round game.

How Furman can lose: Defense, rebounding. Furman is special on offense, but about average on defense. Not a pushover, but not special on that end of the floor.

Best win: Season sweep of Samford (most recent: 93-79, February 25).

Worst loss: February 15 at The Citadel (69-65, allowed 55% shooting on 2s)

Standout player: Jalen Slawson (5th season, scoring has increased each season, and scored 20 points on 8-12 from the floor in the SoCon Title game.

Efficiency: Among the Top 25 in the nation in assist-to-turnover rate and 3-point field goals per game High

Scoring Game: Mike Bothwell dropped in 35 points in the regular season finale vs. Samford, 25 vs. Western Carolina in SoCon semis.

Winner: Virginia. Clark and Beekman will be tough to run offense against. You think more about them than running your stuff. And, who guards Jayden Gardner?.

Upset Chance: One Glass Slipper. Virginia can have rough patches on offense, at times. But, the Cavs should win. An upset pick is not worth the risk.

No. 6 CREIGHTON vs. No. 11 NC STATE

Why Creighton can win: Offensive versatility and personnel. The Bluejays have one of the best starting line-ups in the game, and Greg McDermott runs a beautiful offense with spacing, cutting and smart use of ball screens. Ryan Kalkbrenner is among the best and most efficient big men in the nation and a great rim protector, Ryan Nembhard reminds one of former Duke guard Tre Jones and is a great floor general, and wings Arthur Kaluma, Trey Alexander and lefty Baylor Schierman give Creighton a formidable starting line-up. This team can shoot it, get you on your heels defensively, and put a lot of points on the board.

Why Creighton can lose: Creighton is very good defensively, protecting the rim and with a low foul rate. But, this is not a team that forces turnovers, and one that does not have an offensive rebounding or free throw advantage. Without extra possessions, Creighton can get clipped. At one point in the season, Creighton lost six straight games and lost 8 of 11, yet this is still an undervalued team that is much more dangerous than its seed.

Best win: January 28 vs. then No. 17 Xavier (84-67, took the first punch, down 8-3 through 3 minutes ... won the rest of the first half by 19 points and removed all doubt).

Worst loss: December 4 vs. Nebraska (63-53 as a 15-point favorite ... 40 of their 65 shots were 3's, fall in love like that and you're liable to things like this) Standout player: 7'1" Junior Center Ryan Kalkbrenner (leading scorer, among the most efficient offensive players in the league, averaging over 2 blocks a game for a 2nd straight season).

Efficiency: More balance than some Creighton teams of years past: easily top-50 in both offense and defense this season (second time in six seasons).

High scoring game: Four times in a 12-game stretch early this season a different Bluejay scored 25 points (Ryan Nembhard, Arthur Kaluma, Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman).

Nugget: Creighton gave up an offensive rebound on over 28% of missed shots a season ago, ranking them outside the top-200, but that number has been around 23% all season this year, ranking them alongside the very best in the nation.

Flaw: Few teams give up a higher percentage of points from inside the arc than the Bluejays. Those are generally higher percentage looks ... they are going to give up points, giving their offense less room for error.

NC State How NC State can win: Dynamic scoring guards, transition scoring, turnover margin. There is a persistent thought out there...if you have good guards, you can win in the NCAA Tournament. Well, NC State has guards. The Wolfpack have dynamic, shotmaking, big time scoring guards in Terquavion Smith, Jarkell Joiner, and Casey Morsell, each of whom has made at least 58 3-point field goals in the regular season. These guards, especially Smith and Joiner who each average over 17 points per game, can go off on you, and make video game shots while closely guarded. Smith struggled, relatively, in the last five games of the regular season, shooting only 34% from the floor. NC State gets a lot of shots up, because they don't turn the ball over, ranking No. 2 in the nation in ball security with a stingy 13% turnover rate. That means NC State gets more shots, more chances for long offensive rebounds, and more chances to get fouled. Inside, the Pack has one of the potential darlings of the Tournament in big man D.J. Burns, who projects as a burly offensive lineman but has the feet of a ballerina. Burns can score in the post with a deft touch, offensive rebound, and surprise people with his nimble footwork. In his last 10 regular season games, Burns averaged 19 points, 6 rebounds and shot 59% from the field. The Pack is a formidable transition team, averaging over 15 fast break points per game.

How NC State can lose: Defensive inconsistency, rim protection, low free throw rate. In some games, NC State can be disruptive with full court pressure, but in others, the Wolfpack can give up too much around the rim. This is primarily a jump-shooting team, with one of the lowest free throw rates in the country.

Best win: January 14 vs. then No. 14 Miami (83-81 OT, attempted 24 more shots than Miami thanks to a +13 edge in turnovers).

Worst loss: February 25 vs. Clemson (96-71 as a 7-point favorite ... expected a better effort after consecutive home wins).

Standout player: Sophomore guard Trequavion Smith (more FTM than FTA last season highlights increased aggression).

Efficiency: They own a top-50 offense thanks to over 15 points a game in transition High scoring game: Jarkel Joiner closed the regular season scoring over 25 points in 3 of 4 games ... made 6 triples at Cameron Indoor on February 28 (not afraid of the moment!).

Nugget: Over 8 steals and under 10 turnovers per game is a lethal combination.

Flaw: Smith and Joiner are 1-2 on this team in points, assists, FGA and FTA ... what if one of them gets into foul trouble or struggles? Bottom -60 in the nation in bench scoring.

Winner: Creighton. This will be the most entertaining game of the region's first weekend. Ryan Kalkbrenner will be the difference, protecting the rim.

Upset Chance: Two Glass Slippers, one for each of Smith and Joiner.

No. 3 BAYLOR vs. No. 14 UC SANTA BARBARA

Why Baylor can win: Guards, guards, guards. This is the best scoring trio of guards in the college game, and all three were All-Big 12 selections. Keyontae George, LJ Cryer and Adam Flagler can all get their own shot, and all can make challenged shots. Add in the versatility of Jalen Bridges and the return of Everyday Jon from a brutal injury last season (Jonathan Tchamwa Tchathoua), and Baylor has a much improved defensive outlook heading into the Tournament. This is a dangerous 3-point shooting team and a high assist team that can score its way into the second weekend.

Why Baylor can lose: This is not a great Baylor defensive team, although improved. Baylor ranked outside of the Top 80 in defensive efficiency, but its No. 2 ranked offense has covered up for that. And, while Baylor gets a lot of second chances on the offensive glass (in part, due to long rebounds), with a 36% offensive rebound rate, the Bears can give up second chance points on its defensive end. Rim protection has been an issue all season, but Tchamwa Tchathoua helps with that. Baylor won it all in 2021 because of defense. This team cannot dominate defensively, but has to win by simply making more shots. That's a tough way to cut nets down in the college game. Baylor's offense dictates picking the Bears. Baylor's defense limits how far this team can go.

Best win: February 25 vs. then No. 8 Texas (81-72, plenty of good wins, but this one sticks out because they dropped 81 points ... on a night they got a total of 23 points from their Big 3 guards - George left injured)

Worst loss: Worst week (December 31-January 7)... they lost 3 straight and while 2 were close and none were against bad competition, dropping three straight -- two at home -- shouldn't happen to the elite.

Standout player: Senior Guard Adam Flagler (a threat from distance, reliable at the stripe and having, by far, his best assist-to-turnover season of his collegiate career).

Efficiency: A top-5 team in offensive efficiency and outside the top-200 in pace. They force you to play their style, a style in which they are just better than you at. You have to speed them up or take the L and even speeding them up is dangerous given the scoring upside of this backcourt.

High scoring game: All three of these guards have at least one game with 28-plus points this season. Good luck finding programs with that sort of offensive versatility.

Nugget: It is eerie how similar the 2023 Bears stat profile is to that of the 2021 team that won it all. In '21, Jared Butler, Macio Teague and Davion Mitchell combined for 46.6 points, 10.0 rebounds and 12.0 assists a night. George, Flagler and Cryer this season: 45.8 points, 8.8 rebounds and 9.6 assists per game.

Flaw: As explosive as the backcourt is, this team ranks below D-I average in bench scoring. Injury or foul trouble may happen...will Baylor be deep enough?

How UC Santa Barbara can win: If Baylor isn't healthy or has a very poor shooting game.

How UC Santa Barbara can lose: On the glass.

Best win: Avenged a 14-point loss to Cal State Fullerton with win in title game on Saturday, with a +15 point advantage from 3-point territory Worst loss: February 4 at Cal State Northridge (72-67).

Standout player: Sophomore guard Ajay Mitchell (born in Belgium), scored 20+ points in all 3 games during the Big West tournament ... at least 5 dimes in 8 of his past 9 games.

Efficiency: Flirting with 50% shooting as a team, easily the best in the conference and a Top 10 rate in the country.

High scoring game: Miles Norris had 5 double figure rebound games, 9 straight games scoring in double figures (25 points at UC San Diego).

Nugget: Closing time ... both of their top scorers (their only two that average double figures) shoot over 80% from the stripe Flaw: Under 16 3-point attempts per game, Bottom 50 in the country.

Winner: Baylor. The Baylor guards are just too good.

Upset Chance: One Glass Slipper No. 7 Missouri Seed v. No. 10 Seed Utah State Breakdown: Missouri How Missouri can win: Turnovers forced, 3-point shooting, versatile scorers.

No. 7 MISSOURI vs. No. 10 UTAH STATE

How Missouri can win: Turnovers forced, 3-point shooting, versatile scorers. To win, Missouri has to score significantly off of its defense, and the Tigers lead the nation in turnover margin at +5.8, forcing 17.3 turnovers per game. The Tigers take 26 3-point shots per game, hitting over 9. Kobe Brown is a mismatch up front, and leads Missouri scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Brown averages 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in SEC play, and shot 47% from deep in conference games. Cleveland State transfer D'Moi Hodge has hit 88 threes in the regular season, and leads Missouri in steals. 43% of Missouri's field goals are 3-point ers. And, Missouri makes tough, challenged shots as well as any team in the country. If this team gets hot, look out.

How Missouri can lose: Rebounding. The Tigers get hammered on the glass, and have a -6.8 rebound margin, ranking 362nd in defensive rebounding.

Best win: at Tennessee, 86-85, DeAndre Carter deep three at the buzzer, Mizzou shot better from three (53.8 percent) than from 2 (51.6 percent) Worst loss: at Auburn by 33 points is (89-56) Standout player: Kobe Brown, leading scorer that shot just 23.7% from 3-point range during his first 3 seasons, but well over 40% this year.

Efficiency: A top-15 offense and sub Top-150 defense.

High scoring game: D'Moi Hodge, Cleveland State transfer, had a 30-point game early in the season and can turn defense into offense (5 steals and a team-best 23 points in a 5-point win at LSU).

Nugget: 15-0 in the regular season when shooting 35% or better from 3.

Flaw: A poor defensive team needs to end possessions with rebounds.

How Utah State can win: Their underlying offensive numbers suggest they at least have a chance to score with Mizzou and given that they are a well above average defensive team, they should be able to at least make the Tigers work on the offensive end while punishing them on the other.

How Utah State can lose: The Aggies have limited depth and given the breakneck pace of the Tigers, foul trouble could certainly be an issue. If Utah State is forced to dig deep into their bench early, things could get late early for the 10-seed.

Best win: Beat Boise State twice in March.

Worst loss: December 23 vs. SMU (77-74) Standout player: Junior guard Steven Ashworth leads this team in scoring with dead-eye precision from deep (44.3% this season on over seven attempts per game).

Efficiency: Shoot over 39% from 3 as a team, a top-10 rate.

High scoring game: Senior Taylor Funk has 153 collegiate games on his resume (all of them at St. Joe's prior to this season) and his calm nature was evident when he took over the Mountain West quarterfinal game against New Mexico: 32 points with six made long balls.

Nugget: Passing sets up the 3-point accuracy ... Top-30 in both assists per game and assist-to-turnover ratio.

Flaw: Force under 12 turnovers per game and have more turnovers committed than forced this season (both flirting with the bottom-100 in the country).

Winner: Utah State. Both teams can shoot and score from deep. Utah State will have problems with Kobe Brown, but Missouri can get spread out by Utah State. I like the Aggies in this one. Remember, Ryan Odom led UMBC to the only win, ever, by a No. 16 seed. Winning as a 10 seed should be a little easier.

Most Likely to Beat No. 2 Seed: Neither team should beat Arizona, which makes taking Utah State less risky.

No. 2 ARIZONA vs. No. 15 PRINCETON

Why Arizona can win: The Wildcats have one of the best, if not the best, frontcourt duos in the nation in Azoulas Tubelis and Ourmar Ballo. Tubelis runs the floor as well as any big man in recent memory, and Ballo changes ends well, too. Both form a formidable high-low combination inside, and Arizona is always one pass away from a ball screen on the offensive end. Tommy Lloyd has done a masterful job of blending high powered offense with toughness on the defensive end, where Arizona is looking to prove it week in and week out. Arizona plays with great pace, and this is an elite passing and assist team, with a ridiculous 66% assist rate, Top 5 in the nation. Arizona is more than just its big guys, with daring guard Kerr Kriisa, Texas transfer and sharpshooter Courtney Ramey, and all-around blender and defender Pelle Larsson. Don't worry about Arizona's offense, the Wildcats can score.

Why Arizona can lose: The Wildcats are a selectively gritty defensive team. Arizona played a physically tough defense against UCLA at home, but will too often get into scoring contests with opponents, most of which they win. But, unless the Wildcats become more focused and tough on the defensive end in the Tournament, it is conceivable that Arizona gets beat before Houston. The twin towers of Ballo and Tubelis cause opponents problems, but they can be attacked in isolation on the defensive end, too.

Best win: Beat then No. 5 UCLA (58-52, led for all but 40 seconds of the 2nd half.

Worst loss: Lost to Washington State (74-61 as a 12.5-point favorite, missed 21 of 25 3-point attempts and left 11 points on the FT line).

Standout player: Junior big man Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona's leading scorer, and his efficiency spiked across the board from last year

Efficiency: Arizona is Top 10 nationally in both pace and offensive efficiency High scoring game: Azoulas Tubelis dropped 40 points on Oregon on February 2, hitting 16 of 21 from the field Nugget: Arizona was ranked 17th in the preseason AP Poll ... that was the last time this squad was ranked outside the top-15.

Flaw: Two of Arizona's leading scorers, Oumar Ballo and Courtney Ramey, are not proficient free throw shooters.

Why Princeton can win: They want to slow this thing down and make every possession count. They had four players attempt over 100 3's this season and if they can heat up, they can keep this thing close.

Why Princeton can lose: If Arizona dictates tempo, this thing is over. Princeton is a bottom-20 team in this field when it comes to assist-to-turnover rate, a flaw that the Wildcats could expose if they get out and running.

Best win: Sunday vs. Yale in Ivy League Championship (74-65, just 5 turnovers)

Worst loss: Feb. 11 at Dartmouth (83-76)

Standout player: Senior forward Tosan Evbuomwan (leader in PPG and APG, FT% is a weakness but is better than a season ago, scored 21 points in Ivy Semi vs. Penn)

Rebounding: Top-30 team in rebound rate (over 53 percent, tall guards make them versatile on the glass)

High Impact Game: Freshman forward Caden Pierce (double doubled in title game with 4 offensive boards and 2 blocks ... enters The Dance with three-straight double doubles)

Nugget: Evbuomwan is the center of this offense. Count on him plenty as a scorer, but he has had at least a share of the assist lead in 18 straight games too.

Flaw: Force a turnover on just 14% of possessions, a bottom-20 rate that limits how many easy buckets they can get.

Winner: Arizona.

Upset Chance: Zero Glass Slippers

Second round

No. 1 ALABAMA vs. No. 9 WEST VIRGINIA

The Mountaineers will play hard and with nothing to lose. Still, Alabama is just too talented and unusually tough for such a young group. Alabama's depth, size and athleticism will win this one for the Tide. Winner: Alabama.

No. 5 SAN DIEGO STATE vs. No. 4 VIRGINIA

This will be a slugfest. I give an edge to Virginia to run its offense similarly to the game against Clemson. If Virginia is that crisp with its cuts, the Cavaliers win. A key is Armaan Franklin, who is playing the best basketball of his career. Winner: Virginia.

No. 6 CREIGHTON vs. No. 3 BAYLOR

The Bluejays are talented, have a terrific point guard in Ryan Nembhard and have the wings and shot blocker in Kalkbrenner to overcome Baylor's spectacular guard trio. Creighton wins this one, barely. Winner: Creighton.

No. 10 UTAH STATE vs. No. 2 ARIZONA

Tommy Lloyd runs great offense and the duo of sprinting big men that can beat you in transition and in high-low action will make the difference. Arizona was good enough to win it last year, but ran into a defensive juggernaut. This year, Purdue has a better draw to get to Alabama. Winner: Arizona.

Sweet 16

Regional semifinal: CREIGHTON vs. ARIZONA

Creighton has better wings, but Arizona has better bigs. If Kerr Kriisa can match Ryan Nembhard and at least play him to a draw, I like Arizona's scoring ability to carry the day. Kalkbrenner is only one, outstanding big man, and Arizona has two. Winner: Arizona.

Regional semifinal: ALABAMA vs. VIRGINIA

Virginia will get its tempo, but can Alabama handle Virginia the way that Duke did? Virginia can struggle to make shots and Alabama is far better defensively than it was last year, and perhaps as good as it was two years ago. Brandon Miller is the difference. His on-court maturity and resilience is impressive. If Alabama learned from its loss at Tennessee, the Tide will get past Virginia. Winner: Alabama.

Elite Eight

Regional final: ALABAMA vs. ARIZONA

This is a fabulous matchup. While Alabama is more talented and a bit deeper, Arizona scores so easily. And Arizona has proved it can win in up-tempo and grind-it-out games. This one will be high scoring and fun to watch. I have a good feeling about Arizona in this one. Tubelis and Ballo are more offensive-oriented than Bediako, but Clowney and Gurley are formidable, too. I am going with Arizona here. But Alabama is a good choice, too. Winner: Arizona.

EAST REGION

First round

No. 1 PURDUE vs. No. 16 TEXAS SOUTHERN or FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

How Purdue can win: Edey, rebounding, free throws. Simply put, Purdue wins because of the presence of Zach Edey, the 7-4, skilled big guy. No team has a defender to match Edey and opponents have to game plan just for him and make significant choices as to whether to double team him, and when. Matt Painter schemes off of expected doubles of Edey and there are openings for others because of Edey's ability to pass out of the double team and to see over it. Freshmen guards Braden Smith, the point guard, and Fletcher Lower, a sweet-shooting guard from Fort Wayne, Indiana, have performed admirably all season. Neither are superior athletes or highly rated recruits, but both are gamers who know how to play. Lefty Caleb Furst helps Edey on the glass and Mason Gillis is a glue guy who hit 9 3-point field goals in a game this season. Purdue makes only seven 3-point field goals per game, so doubling Edey is a near must. But, you had better rebound. Purdue has a +11 rebound margin and shoots twice as many free throws as opponents on the season.

How Purdue can lose: Athleticism, tempo, shooting inconsistency, turnover margin. Purdue is not super athletic at the guard spots and the wings. The Boilermakers are not the type of team that takes chances defensively, and they do not force turnovers. And the Boilermakers are not a transition team, but a deliberate, time-consuming team. Purdue is not in the top 300 in pace, using almost 20 seconds of clock per offensive possession. Slower tempo can mean more close games and more close games can mean a potential loss. A team that is super athletic and can press can give Purdue problems.

Best win: In less than two weeks in November, they beat Marquette, West Virginia, Gonzaga and Duke (sure, it was early, but teams need to be capable of stringing quality wins together like that to cut down the nets).

Worst loss: Lost at Northwestern (64-58) and at Maryland (68-54) in a five-day stretch. Offense struggling is the concern: 56 points per game in those two losses, 78.6 points per game in the prior five games.

Standout player: Edey has been the National Player of the Year. His efficiency from the field hasn't dipped despite a huge usage spike, his free throw shooting is up nearly 10 percentage points from a season ago on more attempts, and Edey has far more blocks than fouls. He is unstoppable by a single defender. Limiting his teammates is the key.

Rebounding: Purdue pulls down 38% of missed shots, the first team to clear 38% in a decade (you could win a bar bet with the team did it in 2012-13 -- Colorado State behind Colton Iverson).

High-scoring game: Edey poured in 38 points against Michigan State (Jan. 29), he made more shots (15) than all of his teammates combined (14). Sometimes having the best/biggest option is that impactful.

Nuggets: Purdue grabs at least 60% of available rebounds in the majority of its games this season. Indiana might have the cheat code ... the Hoosiers beat Purdue twice while getting dominated on the glass. The rest of D-I is winless when Purdue has its way on the backboards (you either have to contend on the glass or lose ... or be Indiana).

Flaw: This team has to shrug off the stigma of recent shortcomings in tournament play. Last season, as a 13-point favorite, they lost by three to Saint Peter's. The year prior? A 7.5-point favored Purdue lost by nine to North Texas.

How FDU can win: Offense, low turnover, turnover margin. Fairleigh Dickinson is the No. 1 offense in the NEC, but ranks outside of the Top 150 in the nation in offensive efficiency. Demetre Roberts is FDU's leading scorer, and is a versatile scorer, with a three game stretch of over 20 points per game, and also a three game stretch or over 6 assists per game. Roberts, Grant Singleton and Ansley Almoner have combined for almost 200 3-point field goals made, and each shoots over 80% from the foul line. FDU has a +4.2 turnover margin, and a 16% turnover rate.

How FDU can lose: Defense, rebounding. FDU forces close to 16 turnovers per game, ranked 23rd in the nation. But, despite forcing a turnover on 23% of opponents' possession, FDU gives up over 56% effective field goal percentage defense due to lacking rim protection. That is not an indicator of upsets.

Best win: Merrimack, 78-71, trailed by 10 at halftime.

Worst loss: Sacred Heart, 92-85, 5.5-point favorite).

Standout player: 5-foot-8 guard Demetre Roberts, who transferred with head coach Robin Anderson from Division II St. Thomas Aquinas. Roberts scored over 1,500 points.

Efficiency: FDU makes over 75% of its free throws this season, helping its Top 50 rated scoring offense Nugget: Not a bad debut in the NEC for Tobin Anderson ... FDU went 13-37 over the previous 2 seasons.

Flaw: Opponents shoot over 48% of shots against FDU, ranking among the mots permissive defenses in the country, and FDU doesn't block shots, fewer the 2 blocks per game

Texas Southern Best win: Saturday vs. Grambling in SWAC finals (61-58, game-high 19 points from PJ Henry, held Grambling to 2-of-18 shooting from 3)

Worst loss: February 4 vs. Florida A&M (76-69, lost as a 12.5-point favorite).

Standout player: Senior guard PJ Henry (started collegiate career at Hartford, bucket-getter that dropped 41 points at Alcorn State on February 27 in a game with 0 assists, 0 rebounds, 0 steals, 0 blocks and 25 shot attempts).

Efficiency: None. They are roughly D-I average in forcing turnovers at 18 percent, so that's something. This team had four wins entering the middle of January.

High scoring game: John Walker III had 3 games with 20+ points (28 vs. Jackson State on January 16: 10-14 FG).

Nugget: 3 straight wins to win the auto-bid, matches their longest win streak of the season and came on the heels of losing 3 straight.

Flaw: A bottom-50 offense in terms of efficiency thanks to ranking bottom-50 in both FT% and 3P percent.

Winner: Purdue. Come on, Purdue has Zach Edey.

Upset Chance: Zero Glass Slippers

No. 8 MEMPHIS vs. No. 9 FLORIDA ATLANTIC

How Memphis can win: Balance, pace, athleticism, a bucket getter. Anfernee Hardaway has an athletic bunch that can hang with anyone. Memphis doesn't have the lottery talent of the past couple of years, but experienced talent leading the way. SMU transfer Kendric Davis is one of the more dangerous scorers and players in the field, averaging 23 points and 6 assists in American play. He is worthy of All-America honors, and can create for himself and others. Davis is a bucket-getter who can go off, and he is unafraid of the big shots. DeAndre Williams, who is 26 years old, has been excellent in the last 10 games of the season, averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists while shooting 55% during that stretch. The Tigers play fast, playing at a top 20 pace, nationally, and the Tigers do a great job scoring in transition before opposing defenses can get set. Memphis is also balanced at both ends of the floor, ranking among the top 50 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency. That may not indicate a title contender, but Memphis can beat people in the tournament.

How Memphis can lose: Perimeter shooting, fouls. Memphis shoots 34% from deep, but only takes 28% of its field goal attempts from 3-point range, among the 20 lowest 3-point rates in the country.

Best win: No. 11 Auburn, 82-73 on a neutral court behind 27 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists from Kendric Davis against a good Auburn defense.

Worst loss: No bad losses, but swept by Tulane in the regular season, remedied by blowing out the Green Wave in the American semifinal.

Standout player: Kendric Davis leads this team in scoring and assists, is a high volume, high percentage free throw shooter, and poured in 22 points against Cincinnati on an off shooting night.

Efficiency: Memphis scores 15 points per game in transition, ranking among the best in the nation.

High-scoring game: Davis hung 42 points on UCF in a double-overtime loss. DeAndre Williams is the other option, scoring 25 points or more in multiple games.

Nugget: Memphis has had multiple players lead the team in assists.

Flaw: Memphis fouls on over 24% of possessions, a high foul rate.

Why Florida Atlantic can win: Balance, depth perimeter shooting, low turnover, bench scoring, defense. Dusty May's Conference USA champions play nine different players and can shoot the ball. May is a former basketball manager for Bob Knight at Indiana, one of three former Knight managers in this year's field (Joe Pasternack of UC Santa Barbara and Mike Schrage, assistant at Duke). While the schedule doesn't have a ton of attention-grabbing wins to the casual fan, the Owls beat Florida at the Swamp in November. This team can play, and with its perimeter shooting, this team can win an early round game, if not make the second weekend. The Owls make over 10 3-point field goals per game at a 38% clip, seven different players have hit 29 or more threes and 44% of its buckets are from deep. Johnell Davis is FAU's leading scorer, averaging over 15 points per game, and he does it coming off of the bench. Davis is very efficient and productive, shooting almost 50% from the floor, over 41% from 3-point range, and almost 90% from the foul line. Florida Atlantic has a big guy in 7-footer Vladislav Goldin, who transferred in from Texas Tech, and is a good offensive rebounder, a skilled, high-percentage finisher and solid lane protector behind the defense. Florida Atlantic has experience and really moves and shares the ball. Six different Owls have 40 or more assists on the season, and Florida Atlantic averages 15 assists while allowing only 8 assists per game to opponents. Florida Atlantic also leads the nation in bench scoring, and takes no dip when Dusty May makes a substitution from that deep bench.

Why Florida Atlantic can lose: This team is solid in almost every area and the type of mid major that nobody wants to play. There is no clear flaw, but bigger, more athletic major conference teams can cause the Owls problems, but that is true of most teams. If the Owls are not getting and hitting deep shots, of course, they can be beaten. Don't be surprised if Florida Atlantic sends someone home early.

Best win: Regular-season sweep of North Texas.

Worst loss: No bad losses (lost as a slight favorite at Middle Tennessee).

Standout player: 7-1 Sophomore Vladislav Goldin, Over 60% from the field with strong per minute numbers across the board. Continuity: 5 of their top-6 minute-getters last season are back and playing 20-plus minutes a night.

High-scoring game: Johnell Davis dropped 36 points on UAB (Jan. 5, 11-17 shooting off the bench), including a pair of free throws to ice the game.

Nugget: On Jan. 16, FAU was No. 24 in the AP Poll, the first time the program made the top 25.

Winner: Memphis. The athleticism of the Tigers and the speed and experience of Kendric Davis makes the difference. But, don't be surprised if Florida Atlantic wins this one. FAU is good.

Most likely to beat the No. 1 seed: Memphis

No. 5 DUKE vs. No. 12 ORAL ROBERTS

Why Duke can win: Rebounding, defense, elite size. Duke is a very young team that has been getting better and healthier over time. Jon Scheyer has guided this team to the best record of any first year coach in Duke history and he is now coaching the team he expected at the start of the season. The two most reliable and consistent players have been freshman Kyle Filipowski and veteran Jeremy Roach, both of whom have carried a significant scoring and rebounding load all season. A key for Duke has been the recent availability of shot-blocker Dereck Lively II and bucket-getting wing Dariq Whitehead. Lively is a shot-blocker and shot changer, and he is an active lob threat. The biggest key has been the emergence of freshman point guard Tyrese Proctor, who took over duties with the ball, and allows Roach to play off the ball and serve as more of a scoring and attacking guard. Proctor is an outstanding defender, as is Roach and Mark Mitchell. Duke blocks shots and gets second shots, but the Blue Devils do not force turnovers, sporting just a -1.1 turnover margin, 14th in the ACC. This is a gap protection and rim protection team that does not create a margin with offense or turnover generation.

Why Duke can lose: Perimeter shooting, youth, turnover margin. Duke gets second chance points, but does not generate easy baskets off of its defense. And, with an unbeaten home record of 16-0, the youth of Duke has shown up on the road. Duke is just 7-8 away from Cameron Indoor Stadium, with losses to Kansas, Purdue, Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Miami...a few of those by 19 points or more. The Blue Devils are an inconsistent shooting team, hitting only 32% from behind the arc, 13th in the ACC and in the bottom third of Division I. But, Duke's offensive explosion in the ACC tournament was truly impressive. Proctor's improvement, Whitehead's development, and more spread floor spacing have made Duke harder to guard. Duke's defense has carried the team all season, and it will have to carry the team in the NCAA tournament.

Best win: Best then No. 17 Miami (68-66).

Worst loss: Blown out at NC State (84-60, they didn't score in the first 7.5 minutes and never made it close despite being a 5-point favorite).

Standout player: 7-foot freshman center Kyle Filipowski (3 double doubles to open his collegiate career and hasn't slowed since. 5-star prospect that was the No. 4 recruit).

Rebounding: The list of teams that are better on the offensive glass than the Blue Devils is a short one, with a 38% offensive rebound rate, 6th in the nation.

High-scoring game: Kyle Filipowski led this team in scoring in 12 of their first 21 games, (dropped 29 at Virginia Tech on Jan. 23) but Jeremy Roach has been the catalyst over the past month. Those two average over 35% of Duke's points this season.

Nugget: The Blue Devils enter the NCAA tournament on a nine-game win streak, their longest since also winning nine straight in 2019-20. The last time the Blue Devils won 10 straight games within a season was 2017-18.

How Oral Roberts can win: Turnover margin, 3-point shooting, high-tempo offense, experience, fearlessness. Remember when Oral Roberts beat Ohio State in the NCAA tournament behind Max Abmas and current Texas Tech star Kevin Obanor? Well, this version of ORU is a better team. The Golden Eagles ... (I miss the Titans ... The Golden Eagles' mascot was hatched from a paper mache egg and his name, "Eli," is an acronym for "education, life skills, integrity." Wait, wouldn't that be "Elsi?). But, I digress ... anyway, the Golden Eagles have the nation's longest win streak and can really score, averaging 84 points per game, third in the nation. Behind Abmas, now a senior that has scored over 2,500 career points, ORU hits 11 3-point field goals per game, second in the nation, and ORU is sixth in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio. Abmas has put up 22 points per game, with a high of 36, and has hit over 114 3-point field goals and 147 free throws. Abmas is a flamethrower that also leads ORU in assists. Connor Vanover, a transfer from Cal and Arkansas, is a skilled big man that has hit 97 career 3-point field goals, 45 of them this year. Vanover averages 13 points, 7 rebounds and 3 blocks, while Issac McBride, a transfer from Vanderbilt, adds 12 points per game and has hit 60 3-point field goals at a 41% clip. This is a low turnover team that has a star in Abmas that can carry the team.

How Oral Roberts can lose: Defense, rebounding. While ORU can really score, it is not a lockdown defensive team and can give up open looks from deep. But, in the NCAA tournament, this team can be another darling. Just don't be surprised. ORU has only four losses: Houston by 38, Saint Mary's by 8, Utah State by 10, and New Mexico by 7.

Best win: Feb. 25 at South Dakota State (69-65, impressive win despite a 2-10 FG day from Max Abmas).

Worst loss: No bad losses, but did lose to Houston by 38 points on Nov. 14.

Standout player: Senior guard Max Abmas (top-10 scorer in each of the past 3 seasons, career best FT% this season, over 36% from 3 in all 4 of his collegiate seasons)

Efficiency: A top-20 team in both turnovers committed per game and assist-to-turnover rate.

High-scoring game: Abmas is the first and second option on this offense, but 7-5 senior Connor Vanover (transfer from Arkansas) double-doubled in both the Summit semis and finals.

Nugget: Their top-3 scorers all shot over 80% from the FT line. Flaw: Despite the height of Vanover, this team was outrebounded for the season.

Winner: Duke. Rebounding will be the difference. Duke is young, which is an issue, but they are bigger and better protecting the rim.

Upset Chance: One Glass Slipper. Abmas has been there before. Duke's young guys haven't.

No. 4 TENNESSEE vs. No. 13 LOUISIANA

How Tennessee can win: Physical defense, forcing turnovers. Tennessee leads the nation in field goal percentage defense, holding opponents to just 36% from the field. Tennessee holds opponents to 25% from 3-point territory, best in the country, 44% from 2-point range, top 10 in the country, and the Vols force a turnover on 23% of opponents' possessions. And Tennessee is among the nation's assist leaders, assisting on 67% of its buckets, despite the fact that this is an inconsistent shooting team. Of course, the body blow to Tennessee's Final Four outlook came when Zakai Zeigler was injured against Arkansas. The diminutive point guard brought speed, toughness, ball pressure and playmaking ability to the Vols, and was the most beloved player to his teammates and to fans. In his absence, Santiago Vescovi will have to handle the ball more, as will Tyreke Key, which takes each away from hunting shots. Big man Olivier Nkhamhoua has the ability to score when aggressive and bigs Jonas Aidoo and Uros Plavsic do a great job on defense and can duck into the lane for scores. Jamai Mashack is a terrific defender and versatile, but not an offensive threat. Tennessee is still capable, but the ceiling is much lower without Ziegler. Tennessee is formidable on defense and does a great job pressuring the ball, staying in gaps, and switching at multiple spots. They are physical and can contain the ball to stay out of rotation.

How Tennessee can lose: Inconsistent shooting, scoring droughts. Even with a full roster, Tennessee is a Jekyll and Hyde offensive team. The Vols run good offense, but can struggle to make shots.

Best win: No. 1 Alabama (68-59, limited Brandon Miller), Kansas.

Worst loss: Up-and-down nature is unpredictable. Tennessee lost the two lead-in games to that win vs. Alabama at Vanderbilt and at home to Missouri.

Standout player: Santiago Vescovi -- almost 70% of his career shots have come from 3. He's going to have to create those looks with Zeigler's playmaking no longer an option.

Efficiency: Tennessee has been the top-ranked defense in the country this season, and has a more efficient defense than the 2019 Virginia team that won the title.

High-scoring game: Olivier Nkamhoua has more points this season than he had total in his first three seasons. He has shown the ability to take over a game with 27 points (12-15 FG) in a home win vs. Texas.

Nugget: The Vols opened the season No. 11 in the AP Poll, the seventh time in program history they have started a season with expectations at least that high. But is that bad news? In only one of those previous six instances did Tennessee advance past the Sweet 16 (2010).

Flaw: Without Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee enters the tournament without its best on-ball defender and its primary ball handler and passer. He suffered a torn ACL vs. Arkansas on Feb. 28.

How Louisiana can win: 3-point defense, offensive rebounding, low-post scoring. Bob Marlin is one of the truly outstanding, unheralded coaches in the college game. And he has players, too. Louisiana has a load in the low post in Jordan Brown, a former McDonald's All-American who started his career at Nevada under Eric Musselman before transferring to Arizona on the way to Louisiana. Brown plays angles well, gets deep position and finishes and he plays well out of double teams. Greg Williams is a 40% 3-point shooter, and a target when throwing out of the post.

How Louisiana can lose: Free throw accuracy, 3-point defense. For tournament upsets, making free throws and limiting the asymmetrical threat of the 3-point shot are critical, and those are areas where Louisiana can show cracks.

Best win: vs. Southern Miss 75-61, held Southern Miss to 34.2% on 2-point field goals.

Worst loss: at Coastal Carolina 77-76, shot 23% from 3-point range.

Standout player: Jordan Brown, leading scorer and rebounder, more free throws made this season than attempted last season.

Rebounding: A +6 rebound margin, the third straight season Louisiana is in Top 40 in the country in rebounding.

High-scoring game: Themus Fulks, a transfer from South Carolina State, had 23 points (9-13 FG) in Sun Belt championship game. He had a total of 11 points in 53 minutes for the conference tournament prior to that breakout game.

Winner: Tennessee. Without Zeigler, Tennessee is nowhere near as good. But, the Vols should bully their way to a win against Louisiana.

Upset Chance: One Glass Slipper

No. 6 KENTUCKY vs. No. 11 PROVIDENCE

How Kentucky can win: Offensive versatility, offensive rebounding, interior scoring, 3-point shooting. Kentucky has been puzzling, and no team has been written off and deemed back in the mix so many times in a single year. This season has been a roller-coaster ride, but Kentucky is still capable of winning in the tournament and perhaps heading into the Dance with some doubt is a good thing for this group. Last year, Kentucky was bounced in the first round by Saint Peter's, so that is likely to be brought up by John Calipari in the locker room. Kentucky's chances start with Oscar Tsheibwe, the National Player of the Year last season who is the leading scorer and rebounder, and one of the best rebounders in Kentucky history. He is often doubled in the post, but he is often put into ball-screen situations on defense. The keys are the perimeter players. Antonio Reeves is capable of big scoring games and is Kentucky's best shooter, both from deep and on runners and floaters. Jacob Toppin is an explosive athlete with a good midrange game and Cason Wallace is one of the best defenders in the country. With Sahvir Wheeler questionable, Wallace needs to be stable at the point, which he has shown this season. The Wildcats make open 3s, but shoot barely 50% from 2-point range, ranking outside of the top 175 in the nation. Kentucky is an outstanding offensive rebounding team, grabbing 38% of its misses, ranking third nationally.

How Kentucky can lose: Average ball-screen defense, consistent inconsistency. Kentucky has been better lately, but this team has not been able to string together consistent performances. But, when its back is against the wall, Kentucky has performed.

Best win: A pair of wins over Tennessee.

Worst loss: South Carolina 71-68 as a 20-point favorite.

Standout player: Oscar Tshiebwe (reigning POY) can put up cartoon numbers: 37 points and 24 boards against Georgia on Jan. 17. His free throw shooting has taken a minor step forward.

Efficiency: The defense has fallen off from last season (was top 50, is now top 100), but the offense is among the top 25 in the country.

High-scoring game: Antonio Reeves, the Illinois State transfer, is more than capable: 37 points against Arkansas and 27 against Mississippi (6-7 3s), one of a handful of 20+ point games he's had this season.

Nugget: Kentucky did not lose a regular season game when shooting over 35% from deep.

Nugget: Financial gain ... Morgan & Morgan (the largest law firm in the country) signed NIL deals with each member of this team.

Flaw: Free throw shooting could be an issue late in games (two regulars are liabilities) as they rank outside the top 200.

How Providence can win: Offensive rebounding, offensive efficiency, Hopkins. Providence can score, sporting a top-20 offense in the nation and has a star in Kentucky transfer Bryce Hopkins, a matchup problem that averages 17 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists in Big East play. Hopkins, who played sparingly at Kentucky, has blossomed under Ed Cooley, one of the most underrated coaches in the country. Ed Croswell has been excellent over the last five games of the regular season, putting up 17 points and nine rebounds on 60% from the field.

How Providence can lose: Overall team defense, 3-point shooting. Providence is solid defensively, but not spectacular. The Friars are not a rim-protecting team, but they play hard and compete. Providence ranks outside of the top 70 in the nation in defensive efficiency. And while Providence can shoot, hitting 36% from deep, this is not a team that hunts 3-point shots. Only 31% of the Friars' attempts are 3s, among the bottom 50 in the country in 3s launched.

Best win: Jan. 4 vs. UConn (73-61, outrebounded the supersized Huskies 41-39)

Worst loss: Nov. 20 vs. Saint Louis (76-73, allowed 58% shooting inside the arc).

Standout player: Sophomore forward Bryce Hopkins (Kentucky transfer: had 60 points last season for the Wildcats ... had 60 points in his first four games with the Friars).

Rebounding: Among the best in overall rebound differential, thanks in large part to grabbing over 32% of their own missed shots.

High-scoring game: Ed Croswell and Bryce Hopkins both have had games where they carried the team, each with 20-point game streaks. Hopkins showed the true game-breaker potential in the double-overtime win vs. Marquette with 29 points and 23 rebounds, the first 20-20 game by a Friar since 2010.

Nugget: Providence ranks 15th in rebound rate, after ranking 185th in rebound rate in 2021, and 65th in 2022.

Flaw: While the defense is top 100, Providence ranks among the bottom 100 in forcing turnovers.

Winner: Kentucky. Off of a loss to Vanderbilt, and off of last year's embarrassing loss to Saint Peter's, Kentucky wins this one.

Upset Chance: One Glass Slipper, but only because it wouldn't be that big of an upset. Kentucky is very up and down.

No. 3 KANSAS STATE vs. No. 14 MONTANA STATE

Why Kansas State can win: 3-point defense, forcing turnovers, free throw rate. The Wildcats have two stars in powerful, athletic forward Keyontae Johnson and speedy, shifty guard Markquis Nowell. Johnson has had an All-America season and is one of the toughest matchups in the Big 12, while Nowell is an assist machine who is playground good with the ball. Nowell averages 17 points, 8 assists and shoots a ton of free throws, hitting them at an 88% clip. Johnson puts up almost 18 points per game to go along with 7 rebounds, all while shooting 42% from deep. Kansas State assists on 65% of its field goals, ranking in the top 10 nationally. Where Kansas State excels is on the defensive end. The Wildcats guard the 3-point line and hold opponents to under 30% from deep, among the best perimeter defenses in the country. And, Kansas State does a nice job getting to the foul line, scoring over 21% of its points from free throws. Disruptive defensively, Kansas State forces turnovers on 21% off opponents' possession, but cough the ball up themselves at a 20% rate.

Why Kansas State can lose: Rim protection, rebounding, turnovers. The 20% turnover rate is concerning, especially in tournament play. The Wildcats are a good offensive team, but need the defense to generate offense.

Best win: At home against No. 2 Kansas 83-82 in overtime behind 24 points from Keyontae Johnson.

Worst loss: At Butler (76-64).

Standout player: Markquis Nowell, a New York City guard who is an automatic free throw shooter and one of the best dual threat guards in the country. At different points this season, Nowell has put up consecutive 10+ assist games and consecutive 30+ point games.

Efficiency: The Wildcats assist on over 22% of their possessions, led by over seven assists per game from Nowell.

High-scoring game: Johnson has saved some of his best for the biggest games: 28 points at Texas, 24+ in two games vs. Baylor, 22+ in two games vs. Kansas.

Nugget: Nowell has over 500 points, 200 assists and 60 steals. The last Big-12 players do that were Devonte' Graham and Jevon Carter in 2018).

Flaw: Size. This roster ranks outside the top-300 in D-I. Size doesn't matter, until it does.

Montana State Best win: Feb. 27 at Eastern Washington (79-74, shot 61% from inside the arc).

Worst loss: Jan. 16 at Idaho (74-70, missed 10 of 12 3PA)

Standout player: Junior guard Raequan Battle (leading scorer, second year at the program after transferring from Washington, more points this season than in his first three combined).

Efficiency: Strong FT shooting team that excels at getting to the stripe (top-15 in FTM per game with over 17)

High scoring game: Battle led them in scoring in every game of the conference tournament, but senior Jubrile Belo has been a viable threat for all four of his seasons -- nearly 60% FG for his career, over 13 PPG.

Nugget: Consecutive tournament appearances: No player on this roster was alive the last time this program went Dancing prior to this run (1996).

Flaw: Struggle to both shoot and defend the 3-ball (below average in 3P% on offense and defense) ... not exactly the profile of a team to shock the world.

Winner: Kansas State. The Johnson and Nowell combo wins out in this one.

Upset Chance: One Glass Slipper

No. 7 MICHIGAN STATE vs. No. 10 USC

How Michigan State can win: Offensive efficiency, low turnover rate, 3-point shooting, free throw accuracy, good guards. Michigan State is solid and a good team. This is not Tom Izzo's most powerful rebounding or transition team, but this group has proven resilient and worthy. The Spartans are primarily a jump-shooting team, and they run great offense to get shots for Tyson Walker and Joey Hauser. Walker, who started his career at Northeastern, is the best player and leading scorer. Walker has been on a tear late in the season, scoring 19 points per game on 55% shooting and 52% from deep over his last five regular-season games. Hauser was close to that production, averaging 18 points on 55% from deep over that same stretch. In fact, over the last three games of the regular season, Michigan State shot a ridiculous 57% from 3-point range as a team. A.J. Hoggard has been very good, leading the team in assists, and he makes timely plays finding teammates. Michigan State is in the top 10 in the nation in 3-point accuracy, largely because this is a good passing team. A healthy Malik Hall is a plus because of his versatility. And March is Izzo's time, proven over time.

How Michigan State can lose: Interior play, free throw rate, rebounding. Michigan State guards the 3-point line, but they are vulnerable in the paint. This is not a team of great size, although Maddy Sissoko battles and Jaxson Kohler has really come on lately. Kohler has great footwork, but is not a rim protector yet. Michigan State does not shoot a ton of free throws, but it makes them when they do get there. And this is not a typical Spartan team that hammers you on the glass.

Best win: Indiana 80-65, Walker and Hoggard combined for 45 points.

Worst loss: at Notre Dame 70-52, trailed for 36.5 minutes.

Standout player: Joey Hauser can help end games. He is the leading rounder for Sparty and has made over 81% of his free throws in three years with the program.

Efficiency: Sparty ranks in the top 10% of D-I in both 3P% offense and defense.

High-scoring game: Tyson Walker has multiple 30-point efforts and knocks down multiple triples in the majority of games. If he hits two in a row and gets going, he can takeover a game.

Nugget: The free throw percentage is elite as it is, but even better if you look at just their top-5 minute getters. All five spent the majority of the season north of 80%, with Malik Hall improving from below 70% guy.

Flaw: Michigan State does not force turnovers, making opponents cough it up on under 15% of possessions, ranking near the very bottom of Division I, not just teams that are dancing.

Why they can win: Boogie Ellis becomes more of a household names and takes this game over. Sparty is just average defensively, so if the Pac-12's second leading scorer can get lose, the Trojans can pull off the upset.

Why they can lose: This is a poor rebounding team that turns the ball over on 17.6% of their possessions. If they make those mistakes against Tom Izzo and company, it's going to be a long game. And by "long" I mean "short." They won't have a chance.

Best win: Jan. 26 vs. then No. 8 UCLA (77-64)

Worst loss: Feb. 11 at Oregon State (61-58)

Standout player: Senior guard Boogie Ellis (second year at USC after spending two years at Memphis, given name is Rejean, 15-plus in each of his past seven games)

Efficiency: A fringe top-50 offense and defense ... not bad for this seed line.

High-scoring game: Drew Peterson (14 PPG is a career best, as is his 4.4 APG), dropped 30 points on California (Feb. 16, added 7 boards and 6 assists).

Nugget: They block over five shots per game (continuing the tradition started by the Mobley brothers ... a top-15 number in the country), a trait that can keep you in any game.

Flaw: An elite defense is great (top 10 in opponent FG%), but they foul over 17 times per game. They are a bad whistle away from being blown out.

Winner: Michigan State. Tom Izzo is Mr. March, and USC is not as powerful up front to take advantage of the Spartans on the glass and forcing turnovers. A week to prepare favors Izzo.

Most Likely to beat No. 2 Seed: Michigan State, but Marquette would win the turnover battle. I don't like either team to stop Marquette's ride to the second weekend.

No. 2 MARQUETTE vs. No. 15 VERMONT

Why Marquette can win: Passing ability, turnover margin, generating easy baskets. Everything begins with Marquette's point guard, Tyler Kolek. He is the consummate leader at the point, and is one of the best passers in Marquette history. Kolek averages over 8 assists per game with over a 3-to-1 assist to turnover ratio, and he shoots 49% from the floor and 39% from deep. Late in games, he controls the ball, and knocks free throws down at an 82% clip. Kolek is this team's engine, control, and MVP. Not far behind in the passing department is Oso Ighodaro, another elite passer who also leads the team in rebounding. Kam Jones is the top scorer and 3-point threat, while O-Max Prosper gets fouled and gets to the line. Marquette hits almost 9 3s per game and has a remarkable turnover margin of +5.3, forcing over 16 opponent turnovers per game, a 23% turnover rate. And Marquette gets to the rim, with a 59% 2-point field goal percentage. Marquette is third in the nation with 16 fast-break points per game.

Why Marquette can lose: Lacks elite size, lacks free throw advantage, rebounding. Marquette can hang on the glass, but does not dominate the backboards. In fact, Marquette has a -2.9 rebound margin. Against bigger teams, the Golden Eagles (damn, I miss the Warriors) have to be disruptive and force tempo to make up for the lack of elite size up front. Shaka Smart is used to that, having guided VCU from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011. Marquette is not a juggernaut on the defensive end, but very difficult to play against.

Best win: From Dec. 4 through Feb. 6, they lost one game in regulation. One. Included during that stretch: Nov. 29 win over then No. 6 Baylor (96-70) and Jan. 11 over then No. 6 UConn (82-76).

Worst loss: Losing at UConn (87-72, Feb. 7) isn't a "bad" loss, but they trailed for all but 25 seconds in a game that was expected to be a showcase of two threats.

Standout player: Tyler Kolek showed explosive potential early this season and has improved his consistency. He had 29 points (and 5 steals) in the 2-OT loss to Providence on Dec. 20 and 15 dimes vs. Georgetown just a few weeks later (Jan. 7).

Efficiency: Top-10 offense more than compensates for a defense that is outside the top 40.

High-scoring game: Kam Jones has the ability to take over a game from the perimeter. He drained seven triples against DePaul on Feb. 25. Seven makes is great. But the fact that he never lacks confidence is better. Entering that game, he was shooting 29.5% from 3 in February.

Nugget: Few teams value the ball like the Golden Eagles. From assist-to-turnover rate to turnover margin, this team is nothing short of elite.

Flaw: They are one of the lightest rebounding teams in the field, outrebounded in 10 straight games.

How Vermont can win: Low turnover, good offensive efficiency, confidence. Vermont has not experienced a loss since early January, and its guard oriented team has a trio that have each made at least 55 3-point field goals.

How Vermont can lose: Rebounding. Six of Vermont's top seven players are guards. The Catamounts can be beaten on the glass by bigger, more athletic teams.

Best win: American East title game over UMass Lowell (72-69, only 6 turnovers).

Worst loss: vs. Long Beach State (78-58)

Standout player: Senior guard Robin Duncan isn't a prolific scorer, but he knows how to play and has an assist-to-turnover rate of over 3-to-1 in three straight seasons, and career best 52.3% from the field this season. Duncan is Vermont's leader in rebounds and assists.

Efficiency: Vermont shoots nearly 48% from the field as a team (Top 40 in the nation), but are in the bottom100 pace.

High-scoring game: Finn Sullivan can (and will need to) get hot. Over a stretch in February, he went over 20 points in 4 of 5 games with15 triples.

Nugget: This team has won 15 straight (last loss: Jan. 11 at UMass Lowell).

Flaw: Outrebounded on the season, but Vermont is a team of guards.

Winner: Marquette. I don't see Marquette taking Vermont lightly and playing poorly. That's what it would take.

Upset Chance: Zero Glass Slippers

Second round

No. 1 PURDUE vs. No. 9 MEMPHIS

If any No. 1 seed will lose in the second round, it could be Purdue. Memphis creates problems for Purdue with its athleticism and with Kendric Davis. Still, Zach Edey is no joke, and he will be a nightmare to prepare for in just a day. Purdue's guards are not wildly athletic and Fletcher Lower has not been shooting well, but Purdue is still the pick here. Winner: Purdue.

No. 5 DUKE vs. No. 4 TENNESSEE

I still cannot believe Duke was slotted as a 5-seed. Duke is 17-1 with a full complement of players, and Tennessee is short its best point guard and leader for the rest of the season. Tennessee's defense is fantastic, but Duke is bigger, more athletic and better offensively. Unless youth shows up, Duke wins. Winner: Duke.

No. 6 KENTUCKY vs. No. 3 KANSAS STATE

Keyontae Johnson has seen the Wildcats before, at Florida. But the inconsistent Wildcats are good enough to challenge and beat TCU, although it would be an upset. I am going with Oscar Tsheibwe in this one. I think he dominates the glass. Winner: Kentucky.

No. 7 MICHIGAN STATE vs. No. 2 MARQUETTE

The Spartans are a good team, but Marquette is better with the ball, and has the better turnover margin. Michigan State is not the rebounding team it has been and Tyler Kolek wins the point guard battle with A.J. Hoggard. Winner: Marquette.

Sweet 16

Regional semifinal: PURDUE vs. DUKE

These two teams played in Portland in November, and Zach Edey was dominant. But Duke is a different team, and much better and deeper, with an improved offense. Duke, though younger and less experienced, gets past Purdue. Winner: Duke.

Regional semifinal: KENTUCKY vs. MARQUETTE

Marquette has better guards and the best point guard. Kentucky is better on the glass. But, Marquette wins because of turnovers. Marquette doesn't turn it over and forces you to turn it over. Only a drubbing on the backboards can keep Marquette from the Elite Eight. Winner: Marquette.

Elite Eight

Regional final: DUKE vs. MARQUETTE

Duke is playing as well as almost any team out there. The key will be Tyler Kolek. Can Tyrese Proctor keep up with him? Proctor is a terrific defender, but Kolek is the best pure point guard in the country. Duke will protect the rim and the paint, but Kolek and Kam Jones are difference-makers. Still, I like Duke's chances because of the defense and balance. Winner: Duke.

Final Four

National semifinal: ARIZONA vs. DUKE

A rematch of the 2001 national championship game, and a contest full of great big guys. Duke's defense is better, but Arizona's offense is better. Kerr Kriisa needs to handle Duke's pressure in order to win. If Duke stays on the same trajectory, Duke should win. But Arizona can cause Duke problems, and I think they will. Winner: Arizona.

National semifinal: TEXAS vs. UCONN

In the Year of the Big Man, UConn's big men should be the difference. UConn looked like a title team in November after being overlooked in the preseason polls. UConn still looks the same and received a favorable draw. By the Elite Eight, that favorable draw is over. The Texas big men are vastly improved, especially Dylan Disu, but UConn has Sanogo inside and Hawkins outside. UConn wins and sets up a date with Arizona in Houston. Winner: UConn.

National championship

No No. 5 seed has ever won the national championship, or so Rece Davis told me on the Dirty Dog in between spine-rattling screams on the Screaming Baby Express from Greensboro to Bristol. I am going with Davis' wisdom ... or maybe it was the guitar-playing cowboy that told me that?! No matter, Arizona will win the Pac-12's first national championship since 1997, when Arizona won it under Lute Olson. Winner: Arizona.