ESPN resident bracketologist Joe Lunardi has spent months considering what the 2023 NCAA tournament bracket might look like. Now that the matchups are set, he gets to consider how the field of 68 will play out.
Joey Brackets and his team have spent the hours since the bracket's release poring over the résumés of each of the 68 teams, identifying strengths, weaknesses and that one thing that might allow them to survive and advance -- or see their road to Houston for the 2023 Final Four come to an abrupt end. Where every team's journey will end, along with "eye test" ranks and the predictable and unpredictable elements each might face, is included.
Teams are organized by region, in the order the bracket is laid out, for easy use of bracket filling. Select wisely, using all the information presented herein. And as Joey Brackets might say, Happy Hoops!
Follow this link for a printable 2023 men's NCAA tournament bracket, and visit this link to fill out a men's bracket. You can find Jay Bilas' More-Than-5-Minute Bracket here.
Jump to: SOUTH | MIDWEST | WEST | EAST
SOUTH
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide
Predictable
In Nate Oats' fourth season as coach, Alabama is a national title favorite. The Crimson Tide feature phenomenal freshman Brandon Miller and have the depth, length and skill to reach the Final Four for the first time in program history. Alabama plays at the nation's second-fastest pace, has a top-five defense and scores more than one-third of its points beyond the arc.
Unpredictable
Miller's alleged involvement in a deadly shooting near campus, and the university's handling of the situation, has created controversy amid the season in Tuscaloosa. The Tide's performance plateaued in recent weeks, and a team reliant on 3-point shots -- 47.4% of its field goal attempts -- could be in danger if that touch turns cold. Turnovers have also been an issue at times.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 2
Résumé rating: 2
NCAA seed list: 1
Joey Brackets says ...
Miller is an elite shotmaker; he has proven scorers around him; and Alabama generates easy points by attacking the offensive glass and earning fouls. Still, defense is the foundation of the Tide's success. Bama is the only team in the nation to rank top-three in 2-point and 3-point percentage defense and has a clear path to Houston and an excellent chance to cut down the nets.
Final field rank: 2
No. 16 (First Four) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders
Predictable
The Islanders are rolling into the field of 68 with momentum. Steve Lutz's team has lost just once since late January thanks in part to excellent offensive rebounding and even better free throw shooting. TAMU-CC ranks second only to Villanova nationally in free throw accuracy. Leading scorer Trevian Tennyson is also tops at the line, where he shoots 92%.
Unpredictable
TAMU-CC is one of the smallest teams in Division I, typically putting four players 6-foot-5 or shorter on the court and a fifth (De'Lazarus Keys or Owen Dease) who's 6-8. Yet the Islanders crash the offensive glass and create matchup challenges for opposing defenses. Then again, a relatively high share of their shot attempts get blocked.
-- John Gasaway
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 64
Résumé rating: 65
NCAA seed list: 65
Joey Brackets says ...
Put Terrion Murdix on your short list of the best point guards in the entire field. The 6-1 senior averages five assists, creates havoc with his defense and, like almost all the Islanders, is automatic at the line. TAMU-CC is a veteran team that has had a great season but now faces just one problem in the postseason. If the Islanders beat SEMO, their next opponent is one of the strongest teams in the country.
Final field rank: 62
No. 16 (First Four) Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
Predictable
The Redhawks have a serious "team of destiny" feel after capturing the automatic bid as the No. 5 seed at the OVC tournament. Brad Korn's group excels at getting to the line and played Missouri into the 40th minute in a true road game in December. Leading scorer Phillip Russell started his career at Saint Louis before earning first-team All-OVC honors as a slashing 5-10 point guard.
Unpredictable
Which SEMO team is this? The resilient group that won four games in four days to earn the program's first NCAA bid in 23 years? Or the team that lost five of seven to close out the regular season? Whatever the answer, don't count out Korn's team if it trails late. SEMO stunned top seed Morehead State with a 20-7 run at the end of the Redhawks' 65-58 win in the OVC semifinals.
-- John Gasaway
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 66
Résumé rating: 66
NCAA seed list: 67
Joey Brackets says ...
Russell is a 21-year-old sophomore who can pose a matchup problem for a higher seed's defense, but first the Redhawks have to get through the First Four. This is an entertaining team to watch, but SEMO has also been known to put opponents on the line again and again (and again). Be entertained by the Redhawks while you can because they won't be around for long.
Final field rank: 67
No. 8 Maryland Terrapins
Predictable
With four double-figure scorers, Maryland's offense features better balance than a Flying Wallenda. The engine that makes this team go is Jahmir Young, an ultra-quick guard who is difficult for defenders to stay in front of. Senior Hakim Hart, sophomore Julian Reese and senior Donta Scott bring scoring and a blue-collar grit to the table every night.
Unpredictable
In coach Kevin Willard's first season, the Terps put the "D" back in Maryland -- allowing just 63.2 PPG, the school's best scoring defense mark in four decades. Like many Big Ten teams, these turtles are to be feared at home (16-1 record this season) but often go into their shell on the road. And the last time we checked, the Xfinity Center in College Park wasn't a first weekend NCAA tourney site.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 23
Résumé rating: 38
NCAA seed list: 31
Joey Brackets says ...
The Terrapins beat opponents with a combo platter of balanced scoring, intense D, proven senior leadership and true grit. Young and Scott are tough covers -- the former is a blur off the bounce, the latter plays with an old-school toughness. But the Terps sometimes roll over away from home. Not a good thing against a team as tough as West Virginia.
Final field rank: 39
No. 9 West Virginia Mountaineers
Predictable
West Virginia will play hard. An opponent might earn a victory, but its players likely will head to the ice bath immediately afterward. The Mountaineers are scoring at a pretty good clip, averaging 76.7 points per game, third best in the Big 12. They'll also crash the offensive glass, ranking third in the conference in offensive rebounds.
Unpredictable
Contrary to the norm in Morgantown, WVU does not play great defense. It ranks last in the Big 12 in scoring defense and 3-point percentage defense. Its typical frenetic pressure is off a bit this year: It's an uncharacteristic fifth in the conference in forcing turnovers. It doesn't really have a go-to scorer, as Erik Stevenson is the only player averaging above 11.5 PPG.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 19
Résumé rating: 31
NCAA seed list: 34
Joey Brackets says ...
The round-robin Big 12 schedule has toughened up the Mountaineers, so nothing they might face in the NCAA tournament will be intimidating. But the lack of a dominant scorer might hinder them if they're not able to dominate on the boards. They have the potential to win a game, but no more than that.
Final field rank: 29
No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs
Predictable
The Aztecs posted their highest win total since the pandemic canceled the 2020 NCAA tournament and left them as one of college basketball's biggest casualties. This year, Brian Dutcher's squad once again sported one of the nation's most efficient defenses, led by Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Nathan Mensah.
Unpredictable
A late-season stumble at Boise State derailed SDSU's six-game win streak and magnified a recurring problem. Going back to last season's tourney loss to Creighton, the Aztecs have struggled to maintain leads when it matters most. They have one of the deepest and most experienced rosters in the field, but their late-game psyche needs some reinforcing.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 22
Résumé rating: 10
NCAA seed list: 17
Joey Brackets says ...
The Aztecs' depth and ability to grind teams down with their pressure make them a good candidate to get out of the first weekend. They don't lean as heavily anymore on Matt Bradley, and that's a good thing because they'll need balance to win a couple of early-round games. The road likely ends in the Sweet 16, where Alabama most likely awaits.
Final field rank: 14
No. 12 Charleston Cougars
Predictable
There's a team in the field of 68 that plays fast, loves 3s and crashes the offensive glass relentlessly. No, not Alabama. The team in question is Charleston. Pat Kelsey's group has won 31 times by doing all of the above and playing solid defense as well. The Cougars come at opponents in waves, as Kelsey gives nine players at least 15 minutes per outing.
Unpredictable
Will the 3s fall? Charleston shot 25% from beyond the arc over the course of its three CAA tournament wins. The good news is the Cougars are so solid they captured the automatic bid despite their poor shooting on the perimeter. The bad news is the field of 68 won't be as forgiving as the league tournament. Charleston will need to find the range from deep.
-- John Gasaway
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 48
Résumé rating: 41
NCAA seed list: 47
Joey Brackets says ...
Dalton Bolon and Ante Brzovic lead the charge for the Cougars as Kelsey's first two options on offense. Bolon and Brzovic benefit from the deft assists delivered by point guard Ryan Larson. Charleston is 11-2 this season in games decided by single digits. This group might be overmatched against some higher seeds, but not without putting a legitimate scare into them.
Final field rank: 46
No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers
Predictable
One year after a middling ACC finish and an NIT quarterfinal loss, the Cavaliers were ACC regular-season co-champs and are back in the field of 68. Tony Bennett's squad features three double-figure scorers and two of the ACC's top assist men in guards Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman. They protect the ball like their firstborn and play defense as if their scholarships depend on it, a formula that should play well in March.
Unpredictable
The fact that Bennett's squad starts three transfers in guard Armaan Franklin (Indiana), Jayden Gardner (East Carolina) and Ben Vander Plas (Ohio) offers a glimpse of how much the college basketball landscape has changed. Although they are the 2019 national champs and one of college hoops' big dogs, this is a smallish team by ACC standards and can be bullied inside at times.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 29
Résumé rating: 17
NCAA seed list: 16
Joey Brackets says ...
The ACC regular-season co-champs have the puzzle pieces to be a Sweet 16 team: heady guard play, a commitment to defend and one of the best X-and-O men in the business in Bennett. The Cavaliers won't beat themselves, but a veteran, physical team -- hello, San Diego State -- could cause UVA fits on the offensive boards and the low blocks and end their season.
Final field rank: 23
No. 13 Furman Paladins
Predictable
Furman is dancing for the first time since 1980 behind a balanced, efficient offense led by Mike Bothwell and Jalen Slawson. The Paladins won the Southern Conference regular-season and tournament championships. Furman is second in the nation in 2-point percentage, greatly limits turnovers and launches 3-pointers early and often (46% of field goal attempts). It's a frightening combination.
Unpredictable
While speed and skill propelled the Paladins through the SoCon, protecting the paint can be problematic. Furman's dearth of girth inside was exposed at times late in the season, and it struggled at times to keep up on the backboards. How will the Paladins fare vs. stiffer competition? Furman played only two top-100 KenPom teams, falling to Penn State and NC State.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 53
Résumé rating: 56
NCAA seed list: 53
Joey Brackets says ...
Furman has been a perennial power in the Southern Conference, averaging 23 wins a year the past six seasons under coach Bob Richey, and possesses the offensive firepower and ball control to make a higher seed miserable. The Paladins embrace a brisk pace and swished 10 3-pointers or more in 13 games. Said pace will be hard to sustain against Virginia.
Final field rank: 53
No. 6 Creighton Bluejays
Predictable
Junior center Ryan Kalkbrenner is one of the most impactful players in college basketball. Defensively, he's one of the smartest and most active rim protectors, affecting any shot in the paint. Offensively, he's rarely making plays for himself, but his threat as roll man, while shooting the best field goal percentage in the country, changes the geometry for the Bluejays' offense.
Unpredictable
The Creighton offense is so balanced for the first 35 minutes of the game that it almost leaves a vacuum in crunch time. The Bluejays don't have a pure go-to-guy, relying on Greg McDermott's schemes or the right matchup to present itself. That can work, but it can also lead to confusion. The Bluejays were just 3-7 in games decided by 5 or fewer points or in overtime.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 11
Résumé rating: 35
NCAA seed list: 22
Joey Brackets says ...
On paper, Creighton has a team built to contend for a Final Four run. But as all of us who fill out a bracket each year know, the games are not played on paper. The Bluejays didn't beat a top-50 team away from home between the Maui Invitational and the Big East tournament. But maybe now is the time. I wouldn't bet against a deep run.
Final field rank: 8
No. 11 NC State Wolfpack
Predictable
After a 21-loss season a year ago, NC State coach Kevin Keatts did an HGTV-style makeover -- replacing all three assistant coaches, adding a quartet of transfer portal imports and signing seven other new recruits. Transfers Jarkel Joiner (Ole Miss) and D.J. Burns Jr. (Winthrop) were big-time additions and teamed with returning star guard Terquavion Smith to author an incredible turnaround, resulting in the Wolfpack's first March Madness invite since the 2017-18 season.
Unpredictable
The Wolfpack want to rev up the tempo and will press you from the last chords of the national anthem until the final horn -- hoping to get the high-octane guard combo of Smith and Joiner, both 17-PPG scorers, as many shots as possible. But teams that can handle NC State's pressure get their fair share of easy baskets as the Wolfpack can be undisciplined in half-court defense.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 41
Résumé rating: 39
NCAA seed list: 41
Joey Brackets says ...
The 2022-23 season has been quite a turnaround story in Raleigh, led by the three-headed monster of guards Smith and Joiner plus forward Burns. But let's be honest, this doesn't look like a squad poised to celebrate the 40th anniversary of Jim Valvano's "Cardiac Pack" NCAA title run with a magical finish of its own. I see Creighton ending NC State's tournament in the opening round.
Final field rank: 45
No. 3 Baylor Bears
Predictable
Baylor has one of the best backcourts in college basketball, with a triumvirate of Keyonte George, Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer all averaging at least 14.6 points per game. George, an almost certain NBA lottery pick this summer, leads with 16.0 points per game; Flagler is handing out nearly five assists per game; and Cryer does whatever is needed on a given night.
Unpredictable
As good as the Bears are in the backcourt, they're that uncertain in the frontcourt. Getting Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua back from a devastating knee injury suffered last year has helped, but teams that can control the glass could give the Bears trouble.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 13
Résumé rating: 9
NCAA seed list: 9
Joey Brackets says ...
The 2021 national champions have the ability to make another run, but their guards have to carry them. If George, Flagler and Cryer play like they did in the first half at Kansas in late February, get the ladders ready in Houston. But if they play like they did in the second half of that same game, an earlier exit is far more likely.
Final field rank: 19
No. 14 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
Predictable
Beware the sharpshooting Gauchos. Coach Joe Pasternack's teams have tended to be accurate from the field, and this year's UCSB rotation is no exception. Six-foot-5 point guard Ajay Mitchell connects 57% of the time inside the arc. Miles Norris and reserve Cole Anderson are shooting a combined 40% on their 3s. The Gauchos play at a deliberate pace and choose their shots wisely.
Unpredictable
UCSB is more likely than many teams in the field to make shots, but will Pasternack's group get enough attempts? As a rule, the Gauchos don't go after too many offensive rebounds. UCSB also ended the season with a very short bench, relying heavily on six players. Even a little bit of foul trouble for, say, 6-9 senior Andre Kelly, can be trouble for the Gauchos.
-- John Gasaway
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 58
Résumé rating: 55
NCAA seed list: 56
Joey Brackets says ...
Pasternack has done it again. The Gauchos start five seniors and put pressure on your defense by making you work the entire possession. Then they make their shot. It's a great formula, but even a good shooting team can have an off night. UCSB's accurate veterans might be departing the bracket sooner rather than later if they can't keep up with Baylor's potent attack.
Final field rank: 54
No. 7 Missouri Tigers
Predictable
Dennis Gates deserves national coach of the year consideration for engineering a turnaround in his first season at Missouri, leading the program to just its third NCAA tournament since 2014. The Tigers' aggressive, relentless pressure harassed opponents into a top-10 turnover rate, and they scored efficiently on 2-pointers, 3-pointers and free throws to produce a top-20 offense.
Unpredictable
These Tigers are in trouble when they can't create turnovers, ranking 250th or worse defending 2s and 3s. They're also the worst defensive rebounding team in the nation, allowing foes to recover 38% of missed shots. When the 3s aren't falling, the Tigers struggle, posting a 1-6 record vs. top-60 teams when shooting 30% or worse beyond the arc.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 43
Résumé rating: 20
NCAA seed list: 27
Joey Brackets says ...
Kobe Brown has the talent to carry a team in March. The powerful 6-8 forward thrived under Gates, although his production slipped down the stretch. It's been an exciting season in Columbia and the future is bright, but the Tigers' reliance on long-range shots and forcing turnovers coupled with the rebounding deficiency means their run will end versus underrated Utah State.p>
Final field rank: 34
No. 10 Utah State Aggies
Predictable
Utah State used one of the most experienced rosters in the country to rip through the final three weeks of the regular season and play itself off the NCAA tournament bubble. The Aggies feature four starters who shot 36% or better from beyond the arc, led by All-Mountain West guard Steven Ashworth and Saint Joseph's transfer Taylor Funk.
Unpredictable
Even with the nation's 13th most efficient offense, the Aggies lived and died by the 3-ball, getting over 35% of their points from deep. Ryan Odom's guys struggled mightily in a pair of losses to San Diego State, succumbing to the Aztecs' lethal combo of depth and physicality in the Mountain West title game in their worst outside shooting performance of the season.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 32
Résumé rating: 25
NCAA seed list: 40
Joey Brackets says ...
Despite their title-game setback against SDSU, this squad enters the Big Dance as one of the hottest in the country. Four of the Aggies' starters have already played in an NCAA tourney game and, for Funk, this opportunity has been six years in the making. Utah State's perimeter arsenal propels it to a pair of wins -- including a huge upset of Arizona in the round of 32.
Final field rank: 16
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats
Predictable
Arizona averages 83.1 points, fourth-best in the nation, and shoots 49% from the field, ninth-best in the country. The Wildcats' scoring margin of 11.2 points per game is tied for 17th. They have five guys averaging double figures, led by Azuolas Tubelis at 19.9 PPG. They'll go as far as their offense will take them.
Unpredictable
The Wildcats limped down the stretch of the Pac-12 regular season, going 3-3 in their last six games before the conference tournament. Late-game struggles have been the culprit all season. While they're beating opponents by 11.2 PPG, in the final five minutes of action they're less than a point better than their opponents.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 10
Résumé rating: 8
NCAA seed list: 7
Joey Brackets says ...
In just his second season, Tommy Lloyd has the Wildcats back in position for a run in the NCAA tourney, but the Wildcats need to get out of the doldrums. Tubelis is a bona fide star as the Pac-12's leading scorer and rebounder. The Cats will ride him but fall surprisingly short of the Sweet 16.
Final field rank: 18
No. 15 Princeton Tigers
Predictable
All eyes will be on Tosan Evbuomwan, partly because he's a former Ivy League Player of the Year who acts as the focal point of the Princeton offense while also anchoring the Tigers' defense. He'll also be one of the hottest names in the transfer portal this summer. He has earned the spotlight by pushing this Tigers team into the Big Dance.
Unpredictable
If a defense sells out to shut down Evbuomwan, the Tigers don't have many other ways to generate offense. The star big man led the team in scoring, shots and assists, with no other Princeton player topping two assists per game. Defenses can't get too greedy with Princeton's shooting ability on the perimeter, but those shooters aren't attacking closeouts and winning off the bounce.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 59
Résumé rating: 60
NCAA seed list: 61
Joey Brackets says ...
It's hard to gauge how the Tigers will fare in the tournament because Princeton's schedule didn't provide chances to size it up against quality competition. Princeton did not play a power conference team and went 0-4 against the KenPom top 100. Evbuomwan stands out in the Ivy League with his size and athleticism, but with that neutralized, the Tigers aren't so fierce.
Final field rank: 51
MIDWEST
No. 1 Houston Cougars
Predictable
Marcus Sasser leads a balanced scoring attack at 17.1 PPG. But the Cougars are defined by their defense. At 56.5 PPG allowed, the Cougars are second in the nation in scoring defense. Combined with their 76.0 PPG scoring average, they lead the nation -- by a considerable amount -- in scoring margin at 19.5 points per game.
Unpredictable
Many will question the Cougars' level of competition when considering their high seed. They played only five games against teams that received strong consideration for at-large berths (they were 4-1 in those games). If the Cougars have a weakness, it's committing too many fouls (16.3 per game, tied for 133rd in Division I). But that's nitpicking.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 1
Résumé rating: 4
NCAA seed list: 2
Joey Brackets says ...
The fact that the Final Four is in Houston will not be lost on the Cougars, but they must not look past early-round opponents or they'll be watching the games on television like most of us. The Cougars have Final Four and national championship potential, but Sasser needs to be full strength by the regionals for that to happen. If so, Houston is my pick to cut down the nets.
Final field rank: 1
No. 16 Northern Kentucky Norse
Predictable
The Norse punched their Big Dance ticket with a 63-61 win over Cleveland State in the Horizon League cut-down-the-nets game last week in Indianapolis. Darrin Horn's squad is guard-centric as the team's top five scorers are all perimeter players, led by junior Marques Warrick (19.1 PPG) and sophomore Sam Vinson (11.7 PPG).
Unpredictable
The calling card for the Norse is their matchup zone defense that allows just 63.6 points per game. The Norse must keep 6-8 fifth-year senior rebounding star Chris Brandon out of foul trouble. If Brandon is forced to sit, Northern Kentucky's morphing defense will be less airtight, and it could have serious issues on the glass.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 63
Résumé rating: 63
NCAA seed list: 63
Joey Brackets says ...
The Norse are making their third NCAA tourney trip since moving up to Division I in 2012-13. In 2017, Northern Kentucky lost to in-state power Kentucky by just nine, 79-70. And then in 2019, NKU fell to eventual national runner-up Texas Tech by 15. Will the third time be the charm? Probably not, as the Norse have that one-and-done against Houston.
Final field rank: 61
No. 8 Iowa Hawkeyes
Predictable
The Hawkeyes own one of the most efficient offenses in the field of 68, led by future NBA first-round pick Kris Murray. A classic three-level scorer, Murray is averaging 20.5 PPG. Iowa led the Big Ten in scoring this season (80.6 PPG) and features four additional double-digit guys in Filip Rebraca, Tony Perkins, Payton Sandfort and Patrick McCaffery.
Unpredictable
Fran McCaffery has won nearly 60% of his games at Iowa. But he has never reached the second weekend of the Big Dance, due in large part to the program's leaky defense. The Hawkeyes were dead last among Big Ten teams in scoring defense this season, surrendering 74.5 points per contest.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 33
Résumé rating: 46
NCAA seed list: 32
Joey Brackets says ...
The high-octane Hawkeyes, led by legit star Kris Murray (he won't be picked in the NBA draft as high as brother Keegan was last spring, but he'll be a first-rounder), will entertain casual basketball fans this week. But will McCaffery reach the Sweet 16 for the first time in his Iowa tenure? Not unless they move the games to Iowa City.
Final field rank: 38
No. 9 Auburn Tigers
Predictable
Auburn stumbles into the NCAA tournament with a 4-9 record down the stretch and an early exit from the SEC tournament as Bruce Pearl's club never quite jelled, especially on the offensive end. The Tigers survived with persistent defense, ranking top 15 in effective field goal percentage allowed, and have now made four of the past five tournaments.
Unpredictable
The Tigers might have the most volatile backcourt in the field. The diminutive duo, K.D. Johnson and Wendell Green Jr., are volume shooters who run hot and cold but keep firing. Auburn made only 31% of its 3s this season but has the potential to exceed that rate. Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams are aggressive on the offensive glass but less effective on the other end.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 28
Résumé rating: 34
NCAA seed list: 35
Joey Brackets says ...
Because of their intriguing talent, consistent defense and recent Final Four run, the Tigers have the potential to erase a disappointing season with an exciting tournament run. More than likely, though, the season will end after a round or two as the Tigers' erratic backcourt play leads to a first-weekend departure and an offseason spent wondering what went wrong down on the Plains.
Final field rank: 30
No. 5 Miami Hurricanes
Predictable
Under 73-year-old Jim Larrañaga, an analytics-driven coach who majored in economics at Providence College, Miami has evolved into an ACC blue blood. Despite losing three starters from last year's Elite Eight team, the Hurricanes returned two ACC stars (Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller) and then hit two transfer portal home runs (Norchad Omier and Nijel Pack), enabling them to build an ACC co-championship team.
Unpredictable
Larrañaga is Billy Beane-like in his metric-driven approach to college hoops. It also helps that Miami's four primary guards (Wong, Miller, Pack and Wooga Poplar) can all score and Omier is a double-double machine. The Canes' frontcourt depth is questionable, however, made even more so by an Omier injury in the ACC tournament.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 35
Résumé rating: 24
NCAA seed list: 20
Joey Brackets says ...
The Hurricanes are a guard-driven team, and guards are vital for March Madness success. But if Miami is missing big man Omier, the calculation changes. A smart, patient team could pull the upset and throttle a repeat trip to the Elite Eight. We fear Drake might be that team against the Hurricanes.
Final field rank: No. 33
No. 12 Drake Bulldogs
Predictable
Drake likes to shoot from long range. The Bulldogs earned the Missouri Valley bid -- after losing in the championship game the previous two seasons -- by shooting away, hitting 8 of 14 from 3-point range. They are led by Drake's career 3-point leader, D.J. Wilkins. They are also the fifth-oldest team in Division I, so they won't be frazzled by tournament pressure.
Unpredictable
They haven't played anybody -- you'll hear that a lot when discussing mid-major programs getting an automatic berth. The Bulldogs played only one team that was under strong consideration for an at-large berth, defeating Mississippi State 58-52 back in December. They'll face tougher competition from here on out.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 44
Résumé rating: 50
NCAA seed list: 49
Joey Brackets says ...
The Missouri Valley has a history of doing well in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Since 2010, MVC teams are 12-6 in the first round of the tournament and have posted 23 tourney wins overall. Five times has an MVC team reached the Sweet 16. Drake is in good position to extend the conference's recent success.
Final field rank: 32
No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers
Predictable
Kirkwood Avenue, IU's bar- and restaurant-lined main drag, has been buzzing with excitement all winter. The reason? An Indiana Hoosiers great, coach Mike Woodson, has restored the program to prominence in large part thanks to the individual brilliance of another all-time IU great, Trayce Jackson-Davis, the 6-9 lefty low-post playmaker.
Unpredictable
Jackson-Davis isn't Indiana's only NBA prospect with a hyphenated name. Once Xavier Johnson suffered a season-ending foot injury, freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino ascended to stardom as a midrange maestro. But to be magical this March, Woodson needs IU's wings -- Miller Kopp, Tamar Bates and Trey Galloway -- to sink enough 3s to free up Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson inside.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 21
Résumé rating: 21
NCAA seed list: 15
Joey Brackets says ...
Opponents will double-team Jackson-Davis, one of the most prolific players ever to don the candy-striped warmup pants, from the time he boards the team bus. And yet he'll still score, as will Hood-Schifino. But will the rest of the Hoosiers sink enough shots for IU to make a Final Four run? Not that far, but the Sweet 16 is in reach.
Final field rank: 12
No. 13 Kent State Golden Flashes
Predictable
Led by the stat-sheet-stuffing backcourt of Sincere Carry and Malique Jacobs, Kent State is back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2017. Coach Rob Senderoff has his team fully committed to defense, as evidenced by the fact that the Golden Flashes led the MAC in scoring defense, steals, blocked shots and field goal percentage defense.
Unpredictable
The Golden Flashes lack a power-conference-sized big, which could hurt them against beefier foes. To combat this, Senderoff has instilled an everyone-on-the-glass mentality in his gritty squad. Six-foot-3 Jacobs, for instance, averages 5.2 boards per game and pulled down 13 rebounds to go along with his 16 points, 6 assists and 3 blocked shots in Kent State's 93-78 win over Toledo in the MAC final.
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 51
Résumé rating: 49
NCAA seed list: 51
Joey Brackets says ...
Guard play rules in the NCAA tournament, and the Golden Flashes have one of the nation's best mid-major backcourts in the nation in Carry and Jacobs. In addition, Kent State is also home to underrated 6-8 forward Miryne Thomas and the MAC's best sixth man in guard Jalen Sullinger. Is that enough to pull a first-round stunner over Indiana? It's a definite maybe.
Final field rank: 49
No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones
Predictable
The Cyclones will play tough defense. They led the Big 12 in scoring defense by 4.6 points over the next best team. Their 62.2 points allowed per game ranks 16th in Division I. An impressive road win at Baylor to end the regular season snapped a four-game losing streak as they held the Big 12's best offense to 58 points on 35.8% shooting.
Unpredictable
At the other end, the Cyclones struggle to score points. They're next to last in the Big 12 in scoring, eighth in field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage, as well as last in free-throw percentage. They only have two players averaging in double figures, and they just released their third leading scorer, Caleb Grill, from the team.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 26
Résumé rating: 26
NCAA seed list: 21
Joey Brackets says ...
Teams finishing the regular season on a 2-6 skid generally don't carry much confidence into the tournament, even when that stretch is in the best conference in America. Iowa State surprised almost everybody last season by advancing to the Sweet 16, so maybe the late-season slide is no big deal.
Final field rank: 13
No. 11 (First Four) Mississippi State Bulldogs
Predictable
Mississippi State returns to the NCAA field for the first time since 2019. Chris Jans remade the roster, and the Bulldogs forged an identity as a tough, physical defensive powerhouse willing to grind away at a deliberate pace. Mississippi State is top 25 in effective field goal defense and forcing turnovers while Tolu Smith is an elite low-post scorer.
Unpredictable
The Bulldogs are the worst 3-point shooting team in the nation, hitting only 26.2% of their attempts. They have the lowest offensive efficiency rating (170th) of any major conference team in the 68-team field. In 17 games, Mississippi State failed to score one point per possession. The Bulldogs are also turnover prone and among the nation's worst free-throw shooting teams.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 42
Résumé rating: 44
NCAA seed list: 43
Joey Brackets says ...
Bad offense produces early exits in March, and although Jans should be congratulated for matching predecessor Ben Howland's NCAA tourney total in one season, the Bulldogs' offensive ineptitude will likely be their undoing in the First Four. Other than tenacious offensive rebounding, Mississippi State has nowhere to turn for points. Expect a quick return to Starkville.
Final field rank: 65
No. 11 (First Four) Pittsburgh Panthers
Predictable
Picked to finish last in the ACC, Jeff Capel engineered a turnaround of the Pitt program by adding transfers Blake Hinson, Nelly Cummings and Greg Elliott to a core of returnees that included stat-sheet-stuffing guard Jamarius Burton and superb sixth man Nike Sibande, back from a torn ACL. The puzzle pieces fit perfectly as Pitt upped its regular-season win total by 10, and Capel, who entered the season on the hot seat, won ACC Coach of the Year honors.
Unpredictable
No one saw the Panthers' rise from ACC afterthought to NCAA tourney team coming. Adept use of the transfer portal meant none of the Panthers' top five scorers started their playing careers in Pittsburgh. Hinson hadn't played in two years because of an unspecified medical condition, but his net-snapping jumper has been welcome. First-team All-ACC guard Burton is at his third different college, while Steel City native Cummings arrived from Colgate and Elliott was a glue guy at Marquette.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 47
Résumé rating: 51
NCAA seed list: 44
Joey Brackets says ...
The ACC's surprise team features four double-figure scorers, led by all-league performers Hinson and Burton. The Panthers are a mature, physical team but have also set a school record for made 3s as Capel's plan to surround a mobile big man with high-end shooters proved sound. But the clock eventually strikes midnight on every Cinderella, and we expect Pitt's stay at the ball to end against Iowa State after advancing out of the First Four.
Final field rank: 44
No. 3 Xavier Musketeers
Predictable
The list of transfers who have been more impactful than Souley Boum this season is short. The fifth-year guard, after stints at San Francisco and UTEP, has been a maestro for the Xavier offense, orchestrating via penetration and creativity. In big moments, Boum has been one of the best closers in the sport, shooting high percentages from the free-throw line and from deep.
Unpredictable
Depth could be a concern for Sean Miller's squad, particularly pending the health of big man Zach Freemantle. The Musketeers ranked 300th in bench minutes this season, with substitutions shrinking even more while Freemantle recovered from injury. In recent weeks, Boum and junior Colby Jones have regularly topped 37 minutes in close games.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 16
Résumé rating: 14
NCAA seed list: 12
Joey Brackets says ...
Boum could emerge from this tournament as a household name, with late-game heroics inspiring a Xavier win. But that magic will last only so long before reality sets in. Xavier's defense ebbed and flowed during the Big East schedule. That plus untimely injuries could end up being the reason the Musketeers head home in the second round.
Final field rank: 22
No. 14 Kennesaw State Owls
Predictable
Kennesaw State is a remarkable story this March, climbing from a 1-27 record in 2019-20 to claim the Atlantic Sun championship and earn the program's first NCAA tournament bid in coach Amir Abdur-Rahim's fourth season. Led by a veteran nucleus, the Owls enter the bracket ranked top 70 in effective field goal percentage and top 100 in forcing turnovers and protecting the defensive backboard.
Unpredictable
Poor free throw shooting contributed to more than one Kennesaw State defeat this season. The team ranked 331st at 66.3% but drained 15-of-18 in the ASUN final to preserve a one-point victory over favored Liberty. The Owls rely on speed over size -- the tallest player in the rotation is 6-8 -- so protecting the paint can be an issue against larger teams.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 61
Résumé rating: 53
NCAA seed list: 55
Joey Brackets says ...
Kennesaw entered 2022-23 with 17 consecutive losing seasons since it joined Division I in 2005, and a .281 winning percentage in that span. While the past tells us anything is possible and veteran guards like Terrell Burden and Chris Youngblood can become heroes in March, the Owls should enjoy their brief time in the bracket.
Final field rank: 58
No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies
Predictable
Texas A&M found its stride during SEC play, recording 15 conference victories thanks to pesky defense and elite offensive rebounding. Buzz Williams' squad removed any doubt regarding their NCAA at-large bid chances with three wins over KenPom top-20 teams in the final three weeks. Wade Taylor IV is the floor general, leading the Aggies with aggressive ballhawking and strong drives to the lane.
Unpredictable
Scoring can be a serious problem. Texas A&M relies on free throws more than any team in the nation (26 percent of its points) and officials may not call the game their way in the NCAA tournament. A&M is outside the top 200 in 2-point and 3-point percentage. Its defense is geared to protect the paint, which makes the Aggies susceptible to a hot-shooting 3-point outfit.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 15
Résumé rating: 15
NCAA seed list: 25
Joey Brackets says ...
Williams has done a tremendous job in College Station, pushing the program forward in his fourth season with a school-record 15 SEC victories. There's not much star power on this roster, but the collective chip on the Aggies' shoulders is enough to justify projecting them to an upset of hated Texas and a Sweet 16 or even Elite Eight berth.
Final field rank: 7
No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions
Predictable
Following weeks of chatter about Quad 1 wins and "Last Four Ins," the Penn State Nittany Lions won March games over Northwestern, Maryland, Illinois and Indiana to make their resume Big Dance-worthy. They rode guard Jalen Pickett and a 3-ball heavy attack (Big Ten-best 10.8 made 3s per game) to the program's first NCAA tourney invite since 2011.
Unpredictable
Penn State, according to Illinois coach Brad Underwood, wins by playing "booty ball." Pickett posts up opposing players and slowly backs them in. If left one-on-one, he gets in the lane and scores. If a double-team comes, Pickett kicks the ball out to Andrew Funk, Seth Lundy and Myles Dread, who have all made over 50 triples this season.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 39
Résumé rating: 33
NCAA seed list: 38
Joey Brackets says ...
Micah Shrewsberry's team enters the Big Dance oozing with confidence. The Nittany Lions rarely turn the ball over and, in Pickett, they have a star who can make winning plays in crunch time. We just wonder what's left in the tank after a stirring Big Ten tournament run.
Final field rank: 40
No. 2 Texas Longhorns
Predictable
Texas can put the ball in the basket, and the Longhorns lead the Big 12 in scoring at 78.8 PPG. Anchored by Marcus Carr, the Longhorns have four players averaging double figures in scoring, and a total of nine with at least 4.8 points per game. They also lead the nation's best conference in turnover margin and are second in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Unpredictable
The Longhorns picked a bad time for a cold stretch. They went 3-3 in their last six regular-season games, and one of the three wins was an 85-83 overtime effort over last-place Oklahoma. They are 6-7 away from the Moody Center and none of the games in the NCAA tournament will be in Austin.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 5
Résumé rating: 5
NCAA seed list: 6
Joey Brackets says ...
Texas has the talent and depth to be a Final Four team. It's experienced, with four seniors (Timmy Allen, Christian Bishop, Sir'Jabari Rice and Carr) combining for 608 career games played and 461 starts. Texas should reach the second round easily, but a possible matchup with spurned rival Texas A&M feels like a trap.
Final field rank: 17
No. 15 Colgate Raiders
Predictable
Colgate may be the best pure shooting team in this tournament. The Raiders shot the best percentage from 3-point range in the country, led by Oliver Lynch-Daniels (50.3%, leading the country) and Ryan Moffatt (45.7%). That leads to the spacing that lets leading scorer Tucker Richardson create off the bounce.
Unpredictable
Colgate's lack of skill makes itself apparent on the defensive end of the floor. The Raiders do a great job avoiding fouls when out of position, committing the fewest fouls in the nation, but at times that reads more as a lack of aggressiveness. For Colgate to compete with a high-level opponent, the Raiders need to step up the defensive intensity.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 57
Résumé rating: 62
NCAA seed list: 60
Joey Brackets says ...
Colgate is good enough to beat a more talented team -- just ask Syracuse. The Raiders shot 19-for-39 from downtown over the Syracuse zone back in November. No one in this tournament is going to sit in a zone against Colgate's shooters, so expect an approach more like Auburn used when the Tigers easily ran away from the Raiders in December. A hot shooting night could keep Colgate close, but it's not enough for a win over a team as powerful as Texas.
Final field rank: 59
WEST
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks
Predictable
Kansas is a threat to win the whole thing every year, just like it did last season. Jalen Wilson, the Big 12 Player of the Year, was a key role player on last year's title team, but he's become the go-to player for this year's Jayhawks. Coach Bill Self called Wilson "one of the biggest winners" he's ever coached.
Unpredictable
The Jayhawks don't have a dominant post player like Self is used to. K.J. Adams Jr. is more dynamic than most centers in the Big 12, but he's only 6-7. If the Jayhawks run into a team with a strong inside presence, they might have matchup problems. If they're not hitting their 3-pointers in that same game, they could go down hard.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 9
Résumé rating: 1
NCAA seed list: 3
Joey Brackets says ...
It's rarely a good idea to bet against a defending champion, even one with questions. The Jayhawks had 15 Quad 1 wins in the regular season, by far the most in the nation, and won the nation's best conference with a game to play. But Kansas also had seven Q1 losses, and it will take only one to knock them out.
Final field rank: 9
No. 16 Howard Bison
Predictable
Howard extends the tradition of strong representatives the MEAC has sent to the field of 68 in recent years. This season, the Bison won by 12 at Harvard and kept VCU close in a 10-point loss on the road. HU started conference play 7-9 despite playing 11 of those games away from home. This is a tough group.
Unpredictable
Coach Kenny Blakeney plays a deep rotation. In the Bison's thrilling one-point victory over Norfolk State in the MEAC title game, Blakeney characteristically gave double-digit minutes to no fewer than nine players. Elijah Hawkins, Steve Settle III and Shy Odom lead the way for Howard, but you still need a long scouting report when you play this team.
-- John Gasaway
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 65
Résumé rating: 64
NCAA seed list: 64
Joey Brackets says ...
HU loves to push the tempo and force turnovers. At 5-11, Hawkins is a menace on defense and a smooth distributor on offense. The Bison are committed, will make you work for 40 minutes and could have eked out a win in Dayton. But Kansas will be far too tall a task for them.
Final field rank: 63
No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks
Predictable
Arkansas endured key personnel losses and inconsistent offense to slip into the NCAA tournament bracket for the third consecutive season. The Razorbacks are long and athletic throughout the lineup, riding a top-20 defense that creates steals, protects the rim and limits 3-point attempts. Freshman guards Anthony Black and Nick Smith Jr. have picked up the scoring pace down the stretch.
Unpredictable
To put it bluntly, Arkansas can't shoot. The Razorbacks don't really hunt points from long range, ranking in the bottom 25 nationally in 3-point attempts per game, and connect on only 32%. The misfiring spills into their free throw shooting as well, which could prove costly in a close game. And turnovers were an issue throughout the season.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 17
Résumé rating: 36
NCAA seed list: 30
Joey Brackets says ...
Eric Musselman's strategic acumen gives the Hogs an edge in tournament settings, but poor perimeter shooting will eventually cause a flat tire on the Muss Buss. Forcing turnovers and creating pace can carry a team only so far, like maybe one win. At some point an opponent is going to pack the paint and force the Hogs to prove their merit. That opponent is Kansas.
Final field rank: 28
No. 9 Illinois Fighting Illini
Predictable
The Illini's 2023 roster construction seems inspired by the old bride's wedding day adage -- something old (returnees Coleman Hawkins and RJ Melendez), something new (a helping of freshman, led by Jayden Epps), something borrowed (Big 12 transfers Terrence Shannon Jr., Matthew Mayer and Dain Dainja) and something blue (the Illini fan base, as Brad Underwood's squad has been inconsistent).
Unpredictable
The Illini completely changed defensive philosophies midseason, abandoning their switching defense for a fight-through-all-screens-to-stay-with-your-man approach. They're ninth among Big Ten teams in 3-point percentage defense (33.4%) and fourth in 2-point percentage defense (41.4%).
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 30
Résumé rating: 43
NCAA seed list: 36
Joey Brackets says ...
The Illini have been unpredictable this season with incredible highs (non-league wins over high tourney seeds UCLA and Texas) and maddening lows (3-4 record in final seven regular-season games). How soon will the roller-coaster ride end? Really soon, as we expect Arkansas to evict the Illini from Bracketville.
Final field rank: No. 41
No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels
Predictable
Saint Mary's played at one of the slowest tempos in college basketball this season, suffocating opposing offenses with a versatile, communicative defense. The Gaels allowed the lowest shooting percentage on both 2-pointers and 3-pointers in West Coast conference play. Those defensive stops then let them be efficient offensively, with guards Logan Johnson and Aidan Mahaney dictating a patient attack seeking high-percentage shots.
Unpredictable
Playing at a snail's pace, Saint Mary's takes its time trying to score. Sometimes that looks like patient, crisp offense. At other times, however, the Gaels are constrained by the shot clock and need to force a shot attempt. Especially when teams key in on Johnson and Mahaney, the Gaels' offense can get bogged down, with no one else able to create opportunities.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 14
Résumé rating: 18
NCAA seed list: 19
Joey Brackets says ...
Saint Mary's played only five games against at-large quality opponents, winning two and coming within five points against Houston. The Gaels are good enough to make a regional, but the prospect of facing UConn in Albany in the Round of 32 is suboptimal. Randy Bennett should win another tournament game against VCU, but two wins would take a massive shooting performance.
Final field rank: 25
No. 12 VCU Rams
Predictable
In an Atlantic 10 marred by inconsistency, VCU emerged as the outlier, losing only three conference games and closing the regular season on a six-game winning streak. The Rams, back in the Big Dance for the first time since positive COVID-19 tests eliminated them from the 2021 field, wreak turnover havoc at the fifth-highest rate in the country.
Unpredictable
For as good as the Rams are defensively, Mike Rhoades' guys were subject to scoring lapses, including a 55-point night at Rhode Island where they needed to go the length of the floor in the final seconds for a win. VCU scored fewer than 60 points in four of its seven losses, leaving its staying power in the Big Dance in question.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 45
Résumé rating: 42
NCAA seed list: 50
Joey Brackets says ...
Will the Rams be able to speed up Saint Mary's? If so, they might be the first team to do so. If not, it's hard to envision VCU winning a true half-court game with a pedestrian offense. VCU is hot and happy right now, but the Gaels have a way of throwing water on anyone's fire.
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Final field rank: 47
No. 4 UConn Huskies
Predictable
UConn is big, physical and long at nearly every position on the court. That starts with Adama Sanogo's dominance on the block, extends to 7-2 freshman Donovan Clingan off the bench and continues with future pros Andre Jackson Jr. and Jordan Hawkins on the wing. The Huskies use their physicality all over the court, leading the nation in offensive rebounding rate.
Unpredictable
While the Huskies' aggressiveness pays some dividends, it also bit UConn during a January swoon in Big East play. Connecticut sent opponents to the free-throw line at the highest rate in the Big East, with only four teams in the nation allowing opposing teams a higher percentage of their points at the charity stripe. A grab-happy defense and some quick-whistling officials can hurt their momentum.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 4
Résumé rating: 13
NCAA seed list: 13
Joey Brackets says...
Since Feb. 1, UConn has been one of the best teams in college basketball. If the Huskies can continue that level of play, there's no question they can find their way to Houston. Over the next two weeks, however, it's possible that the Huskies we saw stumble through January return for one game. In a tightly whistled battle, they could get stuck playing catch-up and miss the Final Four by a game.
Final field rank: 6
No. 13 Iona Gaels
Predictable
Fueled by the sting of an early exit in last year's MAAC tournament quarterfinal, Rick Pitino and Iona responded with the school's highest win total in a quarter century and a MAAC tournament title. The Gaels enter the Big Dance on a 14-game win streak and limit the 3-point line as well as anyone in the country, paced by the league's co-defensive player of the year Berrick JeanLouis.
Unpredictable
The Gaels' defense focuses so heavily on taking away the perimeter that it is subject to lapses in the paint. In most of its early-season losses, Iona gave up too many offensive rebounds and allowed teams plenty of free throw opportunities. Conversely, Pitino's squad wants to get into the lane and when it has been forced to rely on the 3, things haven't been pretty.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 49
Résumé rating: 54
NCAA seed list: 52
Joey Brackets says ...
Coming off their conference tournament title run, there's enough gasoline in the Gaels' tank to ruin someone's opening weekend. But not if that someone is big, bruising UConn. Despite Pitino already thinking about his next stop, Iona will use its defensive talent with JeanLouis and shot-blocker extraordinaire Nelly Junior Joseph to first give the Huskies a scare.
Final field rank: 50
No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs
Predictable
The Horned Frogs go as Mike Miles Jr. goes. Miles hurt his knee in a loss to Mississippi in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, and TCU lost four of its next five while he was out. The Frogs then scored 100 against Oklahoma State in Miles' return and finished the regular season winning three of four. Now healthy, Miles dramatically improves TCU's chances in the NCAA Tournament.
Unpredictable
Injuries could derail the Horned Frogs' season. Besides Miles, center Eddie Lampkin Jr. has dealt with an ankle injury suffered in the middle of the conference season and hasn't been the same since. TCU doesn't have the ability to come back quickly. It's last in the Big 12 -- and 343rd nationally -- in 3-point field goal percentage (29.6%).
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 24
Résumé rating: 28
NCAA seed list: 24
Joey Brackets says ...
TCU can sneak up on anybody, but it also can be derailed by a wide variety of opponents, depending on which Horned Frogs team shows up. Every Big 12 team in the field has the potential to advance in the NCAA tourney. TCU can still be a second-weekend team, and we trust Jamie Dixon.
Final field rank: 24
No. 11 (First Four) Arizona State Sun Devils
Predictable
An up and down Pac-12 season was highlighted by one of the national plays of the year when Desmond Cambridge Jr.'s half-court heave at the buzzer beat rival Arizona in Tucson. Cambridge leads a balanced scoring attack with 13.4 points per game. Three other players average in double figures, with Cambridge's brother Devan at 9.9.
Unpredictable
The Sun Devils don't shoot it well. Dramatic half-court shots notwithstanding, they don't shoot well from long range. They hit 31.1% of their 3-point shots, ranking 316th in Division I. Their overall field goal percentage isn't much better, ranking 301st at 41.8%. They even struggle from the line, hitting 69.5% of their free throws (255th).
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 50
Résumé rating: 45
NCAA seed list: 45
Joey Brackets says ...
The Sun Devils' season of uninspiring stats and results doesn't inspire much confidence. After winning four straight games in the conference season, they then lost four straight. They can get hot and pull an early-round upset, but we don't see them getting out of the First Four.
Final field rank: 66
No. 11 (First Four) Nevada Wolf Pack
Predictable
Nevada entered the year coming off its worst record since 2014-15. The Wolf Pack's losing season was only the third of coach Steve Alford's career. Naturally, they followed it up by cracking the top 50 defensively and finishing in the Mountain West's top four. Alford's guys have length, depth and physicality, and that potentially makes them a tough out.
Unpredictable
Back-to-back losses against Wyoming and UNLV to close the regular season sent Nevada to the bubble. The problem became more magnified after an OT loss to San Jose State in the Mountain West quarterfinals, the Spartans' first-ever win in the conference tourney. March isn't the month for hiccups, and the Wolf Pack seem to have had quite a few.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 46
Résumé rating: 40
NCAA seed list: 46
Joey Brackets says ...
It's clear that the Wolf Pack have tournament-level talent, paced by Oregon State transfer Jarod Lucas. The First Four has a tendency to reward good coaches who can handle the quick turnaround. We like Steve Alford's chances against Arizona State.
Final field rank: 43
No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Predictable
Gonzaga ranks first nationally in offensive efficiency, thanks to Mark Few's up-tempo style that is built to put his best players in positions to succeed. Everything in Spokane starts with Drew Timme's brilliance in the post, then extends to a group of perimeter players that can hit an open shot or attack the gaps in a shifting defense.
Unpredictable
Unlike recent Gonzaga teams that advanced deep into March, the Bulldog defense this year is not among the nation's best. Without a true rim protector in the paint, the Zags are more susceptible to dribble-drive attacks from the perimeter. Smart coaches and elite guards find ways to get the Zags, especially Timme, into compromised positions via pick-and-roll actions.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 7
Résumé rating: 7
NCAA seed list: 10
Joey Brackets says ...
Coming off seven straight Sweet 16 appearances and four straight No. 1 seeds, a five-loss season and a shared WCC regular-season championship felt like a bit of a letdown. No longer on the top line entering the Big Dance, maybe the Zags will relish the chance to fly under the radar. This team is still talented and explosive enough to advance, even to another Final Four.
Final field rank: 4
No. 14 Grand Canyon Lopes
Predictable
Grand Canyon rallied from a 19-point deficit to outlast eventual Big Sky champion Montana State on opening night in November. That embodied the down-but-never-out mentality of Bryce Drew's team all season. The Lopes shook off an inconsistent February and enter the field on a six-game win streak, capped by an 18-point blowout of Southern Utah to lock up the WAC tourney title.
Unpredictable
It's hard to fathom that the Lopes actually ended up here. GCU overcame a season-ending knee injury to WAC preseason POTY Jovan Blacksher Jr. back in January and battled through the mental anguish of seven losses by five points or fewer. Presbyterian transfer and conference leading scorer Rayshon Harrison served as the Lopes' antidote and put them on his back when necessary.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 56
Résumé rating: 58
NCAA seed list: 57
Joey Brackets says ...
The Lopes aren't short on confidence, and their ability to beat you with multiple perimeter threats makes them dangerous as a 14-seed. Harrison will add his name to the ledger of mid-major scoring stalwarts who have helped craft an opening-round upset. Grand Canyon gives Gonzaga all it can handle before bowing out.
Final field rank: 55
No. 7 Northwestern Wildcats
Predictable
Fueled by All-Big Ten guards Boo Buie and Chase Audige, the Wildcats were one of the nation's feel-good hardwood stories. No one saw this turnaround coming, especially after center Ryan Young transferred to Duke and forward Pete Nance left for North Carolina. But coach Chris Collins re-emphasized defense this offseason, and the Wildcats responded with a school-record 12 regular-season conference wins.
Unpredictable
The addition of Chris Lowery, the former Southern Illinois head coach, to the Northwestern coaching staff was a game changer. He installed an aggressive defensive scheme that attacked ball screens and sent an extra defender to constantly trap post-ups. The result? Northwestern produces more turnovers (14.2 per game) than a busy Chicago bakery.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 37
Résumé rating: 32
NCAA seed list: 28
Joey Brackets says ...
The Big Ten's surprise team features two double-figure scorers in Buie and Audige and a defense that forces turnovers at an alarming rate. But a team that takes care of the ball and has the length on the perimeter to bother Buie and Audige, like Boise State, will send the Wildcats home.
Final field rank: 35
No. 10 Boise State Broncos
Predictable
Boise State won 24 games, and returning Mountain West Freshman of the Year Tyson Degenhart developed into a first-team all-conference player as an encore to last year's record-setting season. The Broncos possess elite level defense and boast a lineup where four starters average double figures. If an opposing defense tries to shut off the water, Leon Rice's guys will just try another valve.
Unpredictable
While their starters are their offensive lifeblood, the Broncos lack of bench production remains their Achilles' heel. Boise State ranks 349th out of 363 Division I programs in the KenPom rankings in bench minutes. It didn't matter as much in conference where most Mountain West schools were in the same boat. But depth can be vital to crafting a deep run in the Big Dance.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 40
Résumé rating: 29
NCAA seed list: 37
Joey Brackets says ...
Leon Rice and Boise State have been searching for NCAA tournament success for several years and come up short each time. The Broncos have zero tournament wins in their school history, but something tells me they'll both defend and score enough against Northwestern to pick up that elusive first victory. The road ends quickly in the second round, though, where their lack of depth gets exposed by UCLA.
Final field rank: 31
No. 2 UCLA Bruins
Predictable
The Bruins won't sneak up on anybody like they did in 2021, when they reached the Final Four as an 11-seed. They are a legitimate national championship contender. They have the sixth-ranked scoring defense in the nation (60.1 points allowed per game) and score enough to rank seventh in point differential (plus-14.1 points per game).
Unpredictable
The Bruins don't have a long bench, made even worse by the loss of top defender Jaylen Clark and Adem Bona. Only six players on the roster average more than 3.1 points per game. Foul trouble could hurt them in the NCAA tournament. They're also not particularly strong on the glass, coming in at 102nd in rebounds per game.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 3
Résumé rating: 6
NCAA seed list: 5
Joey Brackets says ...
While the Bruins don't have a lot of depth, there's quality and experience with the top six players. They're led by Jaime Jaquez Jr., fifth in the Pac-12 in scoring and fourth in rebounds. The Bruins rode a 10-game winning streak to close out the regular season and won the conference by four games. They're a contender to win it all, or lose prematurely to West Coast rival Gonzaga.
Final field rank: 11
No. 15 UNC Asheville Bulldogs
Predictable
UNC Asheville swept the Big South regular-season and tournament crowns, rallying from a 14-point second-half deficit in the championship game to earn its first NCAA tournament bid since 2016. With an 18-1 record since Jan. 1, the Bulldogs are confident, experienced and feature 6-11 center Drew Pember, who makes 3-pointers, blocks shots and draws fouls at an elite rate.
Unpredictable
The Bulldogs are in the bottom fourth of D1 in offensive turnover percentage and free-throw shooting. Upset-minded teams cannot afford careless possessions or wasted opportunities at the free-throw line in March. Tajion Jones, the program's career scoring leader, is dangerous beyond the arc and attacking the basket, but the offense can sputter when opponents contain him and Pember.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 62
Résumé rating: 57
NCAA seed list: 62
Joey Brackets says ...
UNCA coach Mike Morrell built the Bulldogs on defense over the past five seasons and, with a unicorn like Pember in the middle surrounded by tough-minded veterans, has a dangerous team that can scare a higher seed. Still, only one Big South team has advanced beyond the round of 64 -- Winthrop in 2007 -- and that record should remain intact.
Final field rank: 60
EAST
No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers
Predictable
Picked to be a middle-of-the-pack league finisher, the Boilermakers were a top-five fixture in the national polls all season and won the rough-and-tumble Big Ten by three games. The single biggest reason for Purdue's success was the individual brilliance of the team's big man, Zach Edey, a 7-foot-4 double-double machine.
Unpredictable
Defensing the Boilermakers is a pick-your-poison proposition: Either constantly double-team Edey and hope Purdue's perimeter players miss enough open jumpers, or contest the 3-point shots and let Edey feast against your center. Expect opponents to opt for double-teams because both of Purdue's starting guards, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, are freshmen and have been streaky at times.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 8
Résumé rating: 3
NCAA seed list: 4
Joey Brackets says ...
Edey, everybody's All-American, is one of the toughest players to stop in college hoops. He's the top item on every scouting report and still averaged 21.9 points and nearly 13 boards per contest. The Boilermakers have a very tough draw, however, and will fail to overcome Duke's versatile frontcourt in the Sweet 16.
Final field rank: 10
No. 16 (First Four) Texas Southern Tigers
Predictable
Do you believe in miracles? Texas Southern does, after capturing the SWAC's automatic bid as the No. 8 seed in the conference tournament. The Tigers seem like a team of destiny after 5-10 senior PJ Henry put up 19 points in the title game win over Grambling State. Coach Johnny Jones believes in defense and in doing your work on the inside on offense.
Unpredictable
Is this the time to go against the opponent's scouting report? The book on TSU says pack the paint. The Tigers shoot fewer 3s than just about any team in the field and when they do launch one, it goes in just 29% of the time.
-- John Gasaway
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 67
Résumé rating: 68
NCAA seed list: 66
Joey Brackets says ...
Henry will draw fouls and make you pay at the line. Joirdon Karl Nicholas is a master on the defensive glass who will limit you to one shot. The Tigers are already a great story after knocking off the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the SWAC tourney to get this far, and could win a 50/50 game in Dayton before their inevitable exit.
Final field rank: 68
No. 16 (First Four) Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
Predictable
It's rare for a backcourt to combine for 30 points on a nightly basis. It's unheard of for that level of production to come from two players that are 5-8 and 5-9, respectively, but that's what Fairleigh Dickinson has gotten out of Demetre Roberts and Grant Singleton. Both are lightning quick and create offense by cutting through defenses.
Unpredictable
The Knights ranked 361st defensively this season, third worst in Division I. Even against one of the lightest schedules in college basketball, Fairleigh Dickinson couldn't find ways to get stops. A huge part of the problem was a lack of functional size. The Knights are among the smallest teams in the country, starting two players under 5-9 and no one over 6-6.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 68
Résumé rating: 67
NCAA seed list: 68
Joey Brackets says...
Fairleigh Dickinson lost both the NEC regular-season crown and the conference tournament title game to Merrimack. The Warriors, however, are still ineligible for postseason play due to NCAA rules, so the Knights got the conference's automatic bid. Fairleigh Dickinson should slip past Texas Southern in Dayton, but that's it.
Final field rank: 64
No. 8 Memphis Tigers
Predictable
Memphis will fill it up, averaging nearly 80 PPG, which ranks 24th in the country. It's led by a dynamic duo of Kendric Davis (21.5 PPG) and DeAndre Williams (17.0 PPG). The Tigers are accurate shooters at 48.1%, ranking 25th nationally. They entered the AAC tournament having won 11 of their last 14, with two of those losses to Houston.
Unpredictable
Outside of Davis and Williams, the Tigers don't have anybody who will scare opponents. Nobody else averages double figures in scoring, and Williams is the only player averaging more than 5 RPG. Penny Hardaway uses a deep bench, with 11 players averaging at least 11 MPG. Finding cohesion against unfamiliar opponents could be difficult.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 27
Résumé rating: 23
NCAA seed list: 29
Joey Brackets says ...
Entering this season, the Tigers seemed to have plateaued, winning between 20 and 22 games in each of Hardaway's first four seasons. Now that they have reached their second straight NCAA tournament after walloping Houston in the AAC final, they will need a similar effort to not overlook Florida Atlantic on Friday.
Final field rank: 37
No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls
Predictable
FAU dominated its opponents all year, ranking 11th in Division I with a 13.6 points per game scoring margin. The Owls are balanced, with five players averaging between 9.2 and 13.2 PPG. They're particularly adept from beyond the arc, where their 37.8% shooting ranks 20th nationally. They take (26.8 a game) and make (10.1) a lot of 3s.
Unpredictable
The Owls' 107th-ranked strength of schedule probably hasn't prepared them for the gauntlet of the NCAA tournament. Moreover, this is just the second tournament appearance in the program's history and the first since 2002. How will the big stage affect them?
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 34
Résumé rating: 22
NCAA seed list: 33
Joey Brackets says ...
It's easy to say "one and done" against surging Memphis, but I'm not so sure. FAU is never out of a game with its ability to hit the long-range shot. How the Owls adjust to the big stage will have a huge impact. If the lights aren't too bright for them, they will beat the Tigers and give top seed Purdue all it can handle.
Final field rank: 27
No. 5 Duke Blue Devils
Predictable
Despite a first-year head coach in Jon Scheyer and a roster with 11 new players -- seven of them freshmen -- there turned out to be life after Mike Krzyzewski for Duke basketball. Scheyer's decision to make Tyrese Proctor the starting point guard allowed Jeremy Roach to move off the ball and be more productive. 7-footer Kyle Filipowski was the ACC's best freshman, while two other frosh, 7-1 Dereck Lively II and 6-7 wing Dariq Whitehead, did a little bit of everything.
Unpredictable
Despite its talent level, this edition of the Blue Devils is younger than most boy bands. And some of the program's prized freshmen have left NBA scouts with questions. Lively is blessed with a 7-7 wingspan and blocks a ton of shots, but doesn't have much of an offensive game. Filipowski plays the stretch-4, but struggles from 3-point range. Whitehead has been up and down in part because of injuries.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 18
Résumé rating: 16
NCAA seed list: 18
Joey Brackets says ...
The Blue Devils enter Bracketville playing their best basketball. This team's calling card is its defense, as the Blue Devils held 26 of 30 regular-season opponents below their scoring averages. Will that commitment to putting the "D" in Duke and the Blue Devils' overall talent level spell a deep tourney run, or will their youth show up in a pivotal spot? We think it's the latter and that this emerging team goes all the way to the Final Four.
Final field rank: 3
No. 12 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Predictable
Oral Roberts completed a perfect 18-0 Summit League season and capped that off with three more wins in the conference tournament, including a 92-58 destruction of North Dakota State in the championship game. Coach of the Year Paul Mills has the Golden Eagles firing on all cylinders, leading the conference in scoring, scoring margin (by 9.5 points over second), field goal defense and turnover margin.
Unpredictable
The Golden Eagles aren't particularly impressive on the glass, ranking 197th in the nation in rebounding margin. And that is against the 178th-ranked strength of schedule. They'll be playing much tougher opponents in the Big Dance. They went 0-3 against teams in this year's tournament, including an 83-45 thumping at Houston in November.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 52
Résumé rating: 47
NCAA seed list: 48
Joey Brackets says ...
Oral Roberts shocked the world with its run to the Sweet 16 two seasons ago, then missed the tournament last year. With Max Abmas' 22.0 PPG (seventh in the nation) leading the way, the Golden Eagles will put a scare into Duke. But this is a lousy draw, and we don't expect the Golden Eagles to repeat their 2021 heroics.
Final field rank: 48
No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers
Predictable
Tennessee wears down opponents with the nation's best defense, eager to turn every game into a rock fight. Ranking first in effective field goal percentage defense and top 25 in forcing turnovers, the Vols held 10 SEC opponents below 60 points, winning each game. Among the best at creating steals and blocking shots, every Tennessee game is a defensive clinic orchestrated by coach Rick Barnes.
Unpredictable
The offense is often sluggish and generally inefficient (sixth in the SEC), struggling more after point guard Zakai Zeigler suffered a season-ending injury in late February. Long scoring droughts can be fatal in March, and Tennessee is 201st in effective field goal percentage -- easily the lowest among KenPom top-20 teams. Where will the Vols turn when they need a bucket late in a tight game?
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 6
Résumé rating: 19
NCAA seed list: 14
Joey Brackets says ...
Cautious optimism is the prevailing sentiment throughout Vol Nation because its squad has earned a 5-seed or better in the past four NCAA tournaments yet advanced to the Sweet 16 only once. Zeigler's speed and fearlessness in the paint will be missed. It looks like another sad March finale as the Vols fall shy of the tournament's second weekend at the hands of Duke.
Final field rank: 20
No. 13 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Predictable
Jordan Brown was recruited to Nevada by Eric Musselman, made 12 starts for Arizona in 2020-21 and can now be found leading the Ragin' Cajuns to their first NCAA tournament in nine years. The 6-11 junior averages 19 PPG and has room to operate in the paint thanks to the excellent 3-point shooting of Greg Williams Jr. and Kentrell Garnett.
Unpredictable
If Louisiana finds itself in a free-throw shooting contest, that's not likely to be good news. The Ragin' Cajuns are shooting 67% at the line, a number heavily influenced by Brown's 59% success rate there. In an otherwise outstanding 28-point performance at home against South Alabama in the season finale, the junior was 2-of-11 at the line.
-- John Gasaway
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 54
Résumé rating: 52
NCAA seed list: 54
Joey Brackets says ...
The Cajuns are a talented team with serious Cinderella potential. Brown has major-conference experience, Themus Fulks is an accomplished distributor, and Williams and Garnett can really stretch a defense. If Louisiana stays solid in its half-court defense (and makes a few more free throws), this group is capable of an upset. The issue against Tennessee will be generating enough offense.
Final field rank: 52
No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats
Predictable
A Kentucky basketball season is always an adventure. In early January, the Wildcats were searching for quality wins, and fans were wondering if coach John Calipari should be replaced. Kentucky's talent eventually emerged, and the Wildcats enter the bracket looking as if their best basketball may lie ahead. Oscar Tshiebwe remains a force inside, and the guard play improved as the season unfolded.
Unpredictable
Kentucky uses the nation's third best offensive rebounding rate to offset mediocre shooting. The Wildcats were exposed on the defensive end, especially in ball-screen coverage when teams pulled Tshiebwe away from the basket. Key guards Cason Wallace, Sahvir Wheeler and CJ Fredrick all missed games due to injury late in the season, so Kentucky will be hoping they are all available.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 20
Résumé rating: 27
NCAA seed list: 23
Joey Brackets says ...
In a tournament field that's as wide open as any in recent memory, the Wildcats have the high-end, NBA-caliber talent to make a deep run. They could also be in early-round trouble if an opponent packs the lane and forces them to win from the perimeter. It might not be a St. Peter's scenario, but Providence is more than capable of sending Big Blue home early yet again.
Final field rank: 36
No. 11 Providence Friars
Predictable
Ed Cooley's roster is filled with strong players who have a nose for the rim and playing through contact. Providence led the Big East in free-throw rate and percentage of points coming via free throws. Kentucky transfer Bryce Hopkins is a matchup nightmare for most wings, leading the charge for the Friars' downhill offensive attack.
Unpredictable
Providence has some size issues with its starting lineup. Cooley starts three guards and a frontcourt that maxes out at 6-8. With some gritty effort, the Friars survive on the glass, but interior defense is a struggle. Providence allowed the 2nd highest percentage inside the arc in the Big East and came up short against skilled bigs like UConn's Adama Sanogo and Xavier's Jack Nunge.
-- Shane McNichol
Eye test rank: 36
Résumé rating: 48
NCAA seed list: 42
Joey Brackets says ...
After a 9-2 start in Big East play, Providence came back down to Earth later in the season. Some of that was simply due to the quality atop the Big East this season. The Friars threw punches with some real contenders this year and held their own. Undistracted by Cooley coaching chatter, the Friars could return to form and be a double-digit second weekend team.
Final field rank: 15
No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats
Predictable
Kansas State was picked last in the Big 12 preseason polls, partly because Big 12 Coach of the Year Jerome Tang had to build a staff and practically an entire roster from scratch. Only two players returned from the 2021-22 team. One of those, Markquis Nowell, led the Big 12 in scoring in conference games this year.
Unpredictable
If the other key player in the turnaround, Keyontae Johnson, gets into foul trouble, the Wildcats could struggle. When they lost 4-of-5 in the middle of the season, Johnson had four fouls in three of the four losses. He often picked up two quick first-half fouls, forcing a personnel adjustment.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 25
Résumé rating: 12
NCAA seed list: 11
Joey Brackets says ...
We should probably get used to Kansas State being a top-four seed in future NCAA tournaments because Tang can recruit, and he can motivate his players to play hard. But this might be a year early for Final Four talk in Manhattan. The Wildcats could reach the second weekend, but a second-round loss to Providence isn't out of the question for an overachieving team.
Final field rank: 21
No. 14 Montana State Bobcats
Predictable
6-5 junior guard RaeQuan Battle, who averages 17.4 points per game, is Montana State's go-to player. He hits 34.5% of his 3-pointers, which would be in the top 100 if he had enough attempts. The Bobcats also hit better than 75% of their free throws as a team, ranking in the top 50 nationally, which will help in a close game.
Unpredictable
Although the Bobcats are back in the NCAA tournament, they don't have much experience playing this level of competition. The Bobcats have the 186th-ranked strength of schedule and only faced two Power-5 schools, losing both of those games by an average of 25.5 points. Those two schools were also the only opponents ranked in the top 120 in strength of schedule.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 60
Résumé rating: 61
NCAA seed list: 58
Joey Brackets says ...
Your parting gifts are at the door. Tournament experience is a valuable tool, but if your only experience was a 35-point first-round defeat, how much can that help? The Bobcats earned their way into the tournament, but their stay will be short-lived against Kansas State.
Final field rank: 57
No. 7 Michigan State Spartans
Predictable
During the Tom Izzo era, Michigan State has been as much a part of March Madness as cheerleaders, 5-12 upsets and office pools. What's different this March is that the Spartans have some defensive questions, but do possess a high-octane offense featuring a troika of double-digit scorers (Tyson Walker, Joey Hauser and A.J. Hoggard) and two within a whisker of that (Jaden Akins and Malik Hall).
Unpredictable
One of the tenets of an Izzo-coached team is a defense-first mentality. However, during the last five games of the regular season, the Spartans allowed 81.2 points per game. The 112 points that Michigan State surrendered in an OT loss to Iowa skewed those numbers, but the Spartans need to put the "D" back in their collective alphabet to make some bracket noise.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 31
Résumé rating: 30
NCAA seed list: 26
Joey Brackets says ...
"Izzone" residents have spent this winter bemoaning the Spartans' lack of a prototypical low-post player and a sometimes leaky D. But the Spartans can score and have two tough, confident guards (Walker and Hoggard) and one of the sport's best sideline maestros in Izzo. Sounds like a team equipped to win at least one game this week.
Final field rank: 26
No. 10 USC Trojans
Predictable
USC finished the regular season strong, winning five out of six, including a matchup of bubble teams in a 68-65 victory over Arizona State that clinched a tie for second place in the conference. They're led by their guards, Boogie Ellis (18.1 PPG) and Drew Peterson (14.1 PPG).
Unpredictable
The Trojans have struggled against NCAA tournament-level teams, going 2-5 in seven games. They also struggle on the glass, averaging half a rebound per game fewer than their opponents. They're not good shooters, coming in ranked 109th in field-goal percentage. They're even worse (172nd) at 34.4% from 3-point range.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 38
Résumé rating: 37
NCAA seed list: 39
Joey Brackets says ...
USC's guard-oriented lineup won't fare well against larger lineups in the NCAA tourney. In January, it welcomed back five-star big man Vincent Iwuchukwu from cardiac arrest suffered last summer, but he hasn't contributed enough. In what was a down year in the Pac-12, the Trojans squeezed into the Big Dance, but they won't stay long.
Final field rank: 42
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles
Predictable
Throughout his career, Shaka Smart's teams have won mainly with gritty defense, but this Marquette team bucks that trend. The Golden Eagles rank in the top five nationally in offensive efficiency, thanks to the best 2-point shooting percentage in the country. Tyler Kolek runs the point with a Steve Nash-like creativity, finding cutters and shooters all capable of beating opposing defenses.
Unpredictable
While Marquette's offense has excelled inside the arc, paint defense has been a problem for a team without a ton of size. The Golden Eagles allowed the highest 2-point percentage in Big East play, in part due to trouble on the glass. Marquette's opponents grabbed their own misses at the second highest rate in the conference.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 12
Résumé rating: 11
NCAA seed list: 8
Joey Brackets says ...
Shaka Smart was shown the door at Texas because he failed to win more than 20 games or win an NCAA tournament game in his six seasons in Austin. Now in his second year at Marquette, his team has surpassed 20 wins and is a real threat to make a run in March. Spurred by a versatile and free-flowing offense, the Golden Eagles will play to their seed and reach the Elite Eight.
Final field rank: 5
No. 15 Vermont Catamounts
Predictable
John Becker has built a machine in Burlington, riding a crisp and efficient offense to the Big Dance for the fourth time since 2017. His Catamounts use ball and player movement to generate high-quality shots. Vermont led the America East in 2-point and 3-point shooting percentage, while taking 3s at the highest rate and turning the ball over less than any team in the conference.
Unpredictable
Vermont has enough size to compete against America East opponents, but not against bigger, more athletic teams. Against the two top-40 teams on the Catamounts' schedule (Saint Mary's and USC), Vermont was outrebounded 76-52. Vermont's primary big man Matt Veretto has been productive in conference play, but after being away from basketball from 2019 to this fall, he'll face a tall test in the tournament.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 55
Résumé rating: 59
NCAA seed list: 59
Joey Brackets says ...
Of the Vermont teams that have made their way to the NCAA tournament in recent history, this collection of Catamounts is a little shorter on talent than others. That was apparent during Vermont's tough stretch in nonconference play and is reflected by the Catamounts' seed. Without an otherworldly shooting performance, Vermont is not a threat to pull an upset.
Final field rank: 56