Every Selection Sunday, I am on the College GameDay desk during the Bracketology selection show as the NCAA tournament bracket is revealed on CBS. And, every year, our fearless producers demand that all of us bloviating hoopheads provide our picks for each game and the Final Four. That process, which is to take into account matchups, game times, locations and all other factors, allows only five minutes so we can get it on the air as quickly as possible.
As my cigar-smoking bosses, cocktails in hand, demand my immediate observations for the 68-team bracket, I quickly scratch out my picks on a hand-drawn bracket that looks like a 6-year old child created it, asking for more time like a death row inmate trying to choke down his last meal. The response from the suits is a resounding middle finger to my pleas, not caring a whit about the potential ridicule I face on social media should one of my selections be rushed. Provide your picks, lock them in and cash your check.
Well, these are my picks after having one hour to actually think. In this prescient guide to winning your office pool, beating your buddies in your bracket challenge and collecting big cash, I am selflessly giving you every-upset-possibility-and-take-it-to-the-bank lock in this year's bracket. Use my selections to bolster your bracket and enjoy living on easy street.
Let's get a few facts straight on the NCAA tournament. The idea that "anybody can win" is nice, but it is not really true. Consider these first-round numbers (since 1985, when the bracket expanded to 64 teams):
No. 1 seeds are 143-1 vs. No. 16 seeds. No. 2 seeds are 135-9 vs. No. 15 seeds. No. 3 seeds are 122-22 vs. No. 14 seeds. That means No. 1, 2 and 3 seeds are 400-32 in the first round.
Of the past 21 national championships, 20 were won by No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 seeds. Top-three seeds have won 32 of 36 NCAA titles.
All of the bubble talk and who is in or out is over. None of it mattered anyway. No team was in or out until the committee said so. So here you have it, the "More than Five Minutes" Bracket. You may now take these picks and pick up your winnings. You're welcome.
West: The 'Zag' Region
First round
No. 1 seed Gonzaga vs. No. 16 seed Georgia State
Give Georgia State its due. Georgia State got blasted by Mississippi State in Starkville in December, then suffered a broken-down bus at midnight in the middle of Mississippi. Things were dire. The hardship gave the team quiet time to bond, and it served as a turning point to get closer and better. Then, after an 0-4 conference start in January, Eliel Nsoseme, just back from an injury, scored 19 points and grabbed 10 rebounds against Coastal Carolina, but missed two key free throws that he believed were the reason for the loss.
Down and emotional, Nsoseme, who averages 10 points, 9.4 rebounds and 1.5 blocks, could not sit for the postgame speech by coach Rob Lanier, so the entire team joined him to pick him up and commit to winning and losing together. From there, Georgia State took off and won 12 of the next 13, including the last 10 games of the season, in part due to top scorer Corey Allen's 14.7 points per game. But don't be fooled: Georgia State is not an efficient offensive team, but the Panthers are believers, and they're pretty tough and together. Georgia State has a 43.6% effective field goal percentage and shoots 45% from 2-point range in Sun Belt play, both in the bottom 20 nationally.
But Georgia State has to play Gonzaga. The team you can trust most in the tournament is Gonzaga. The Bulldogs do not shoot the ball as well as they did last season, but this is the same type of precise cutting and passing team that gets layups and scores with relative ease. Drew Timme (17.6 points per game) has had another spectacular season and has proved to be one of the most productive interior scorers in the nation. Chet Holmgren (14.4 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.6 blocks) keeps getting better, and he impacts the game on the glass, shooting 3s and blocking shots. There is nobody else in college ball like Holmgren, Andrew Nembhard is a savant in pick-and-roll, and Julian Strawther and Rasir Bolton can make shots. Gonzaga is tough, tournament-tested and ready to make another run at a title. Which other team wins as consistently in March as Gonzaga? It is a short list.
Winner: Don't be silly. Gonzaga wins. Only one 16-seed has ever won a game, and a repeat performance will not happen here. And give the points.
No. 8 Boise State vs. No. 9 Memphis
The 8 vs. 9 game is usually a toss-up. Boise State is the outright regular-season and MWC tournament champ, yet it did not have an All-MWC first-team player. At least Leon Rice took home MWC Coach of the Year honors. Boise State is really good offensively and really good as of late. In six of the past seven games heading into the MWC tourney loss to San Diego State, the Broncos have shot 50% or better, and Boise State is converting at a 77% clip over the past 14 games. Boise State has Marcus Shaver Jr. (second-leading scorer), Emmanuel Akot (Arizona transfer, improved shooter and point forward who leads in assists), Abu Kigab (scoring and steals leader and All-MWC second team) and Tyson Degenhart (42% 3-point shooter, MWC Freshman of the Year and best hair in the country) leading the way, and the Broncos are very good on defense and gang-rebound to finish defensive possessions. Because Boise State has mature, experienced talent that can play all over the floor, the Broncos will be a tough out.
Memphis is talented and athletic, and it has beaten Virginia Tech, Alabama and Houston (twice). The Tigers' defense has ratcheted up of late, and this can be a dangerous team. The only thing that can get in the way is youth and turnovers -- Memphis turns it over on close to 22% of its possessions. When you cough it up, you don't get a shot, a chance for a foul and a chance for an offensive rebound. Plus, you cannot defend a run-out. Jalen Duren is a first-round NBA draft pick and is a force in the paint and a legit lob threat. Duren averages 12 points, but he can get you more in a given contest. DeAndre Williams is a good scorer and rebounder, and the diminutive Tyler Harris can make shots from the logo and is fearless. Add in Landers Nolley II and Lester Quinones, and Memphis has options.
Winner: Boise State. The Broncos may seem like a flier, but take it anyway. Neither team beats Gonzaga, so this might make a difference in your bracket.
No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State
UConn is an undervalued team that can really defend and has great size and shot-blocking. The Huskies have all-league talent at multiple spots, and New Mexico State has no matchup for Adama Sanogo, the dominant UConn big man who can score, rebound and protect the rim. R.J. Cole is a lefty who can score and is dynamic, Tyrese Martin is an athletic wing who shoots almost 43% from deep, and Isaiah Whaley can defend and block shots. Add in Tyler Polley and Andre Jackson and UConn has a lot of weapons. UConn is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing almost 38% of its misses.
New Mexico State can defend, rebound and block shots, too. The Aggies can shut down what you like to do and keep you out of the paint. The only issue is ball security, as New Mexico State turns it over on almost 21% of its possessions. The well-traveled Teddy Allen is the leading scorer at 19 points per game and Sir'Jabari Rice fills the stat sheet in every category, averaging 12 points, 5 rebounds and 3.3 assists. New Mexico State is top-10 in the nation in blocked shots and the Aggies defend the 3-point line, a good combination. Wins over Davidson and Washington State show this team is capable and a tough out.
Winner: UConn. The matchup problems that the Huskies pose will be a bit too much for the Aggies. Take UConn in this one.
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Vermont
Vermont dominated the America East, going 17-1 in league play, and can ball out. Ben Shungu is a former walk-on who averages 16 points and is the best 3-point shooter, hitting 64 3s and shooting over 42% from deep. Shungu also is the best defender, a two-time America East All-Defensive selection. Inside-outside threat Ryan Davis is a two-time America East Player of the Year who puts up over 17 points per game, and Davis and Finn Sullivan have both hit more than 40 3s and shoot over 40% from behind the arc. Davis also shoots over 66% from 2-point range. For Vermont to win, both Shungu and Davis need to play really well. Vermont is also third nationally in 2-point field goal percentage, hitting nearly 60% from inside the arc. This is an elite passing and cutting team that makes smart use of jump stops and shot fakes and can hurt you in a variety of ways.
The Razorbacks' attack starts with JD Notae, but it doesn't end there. Notae is a big-time scorer who can get his own shot. Jaylin Williams is one of the most underrated players in the country. Williams is savvy and tough enough to take numerous charges, he goes hard to the glass, and he can operate in and out of the post. Since Jan. 1, Williams has been averaging a double-double. Au'Diese Toney is the Razorbacks' leading offensive rebounder in SEC play, and he put up 22 points and 10 rebounds against LSU in the SEC tournament. The Arkansas offense gets your attention, but this is not a great perimeter-shooting team. It is defense that can set this team apart and take it to the second weekend.
Winner: Vermont. This is a huge upset, but one worth risking. Vermont is very good, and Arkansas doesn't shoot well. Should Arkansas overwhelm Vermont with its athleticism? Yes. But, that is what upsets are about.
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Rutgers/Notre Dame
The Crimson Tide have been a puzzle all season long. This is not the same shooting or defensive team as last year's version, but if they figure some things out, the Tide can still make a run. Alabama seems most dangerous from 3-point range, but it is actually tougher from 2-point territory. The Tide are shooting only 29% from deep in SEC games, with Jaden Shackelford leading the way as the top scorer. Jahvon Quinerly averages 14.3 points and 4.3 assists, and as he goes, so goes Alabama. The Tide have beaten Gonzaga, Tennessee, Miami, Houston and Baylor, but the losses have been head-scratching. If the good Bama shows up, the Tide can roll.
Notre Dame and Rutgers play in the First Four, and given that Notre Dame can shoot it, has terrific players in Dane Goodwin and Blake Wesley, and can tempo down the game, the Irish can beat Rutgers. The Irish shoot almost 40% from deep in ACC games. However, I favor Rutgers because of its talent level and toughness. Rutgers is much better than its record, and with playmakers such as Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker, the Scarlet Knights can make shots, including Harper making game-winning shots. Paul Mulcahy is a great passer, Clifford Omoruyi is a terror on the glass, and Caleb McConnell can guard anyone and is among the best defenders in the country. I favor Rutgers over Notre Dame, and the Scarlet Knights can beat Alabama, too.
Winner: Rutgers. If the "good Alabama" shows up, the Tide can roll the Scarlet Knights. But Rutgers is tougher. This is an upset worth taking, because the seeds are off here. Take Rutgers.
No. 3 Texas Tech vs No. 14 Montana State
Texas Tech is tough to play against. The Red Raiders deny you the middle and keep your offense on one end of the floor. Bryson Williams has been excellent all season, averaging 13.7 points, and Kevin Obanor was a star last year for Oral Roberts. Texas Tech does not shoot well, but its defensive efficiency is too good and consistent to believe that Montana State will score enough points to win.
Montana State shoots 37% from deep, in the top 40 nationally, but getting those looks against Texas Tech will be difficult. Xavier Bishop and Jubrile Belo are Montana State's best players, averaging 13.9 and 13 points per game, respectively. It is just that Texas Tech has too much grit, toughness and togetherness to drop this game.
Winner: Texas Tech
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Davidson
This is a really tough draw for Michigan State. Davidson will be difficult to beat because the Wildcats are very skilled offensively. Davidson is low-turnover, can pass, cut and shoot, and takes great advantage of opposing defenses through cutting, curling screens and back-cutting. Every player on the floor is smart, skilled and understands how Bob McKillop wants them to play, which has led Davidson to a 55.4% effective field goal percentage, leading the Atlantic 10 and top-10 nationally. Hyunjung Lee is the matchup nightmare on this team, with the ability to drive it, cut and shoot from deep. Lee is one of the best wings in the country and is on the list of finalists for the Julius Erving Award. Lee has hit more than 70 3-point shots and leads Davidson in free throw attempts. Luka Brajkovic is the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year and shoots 65% on 2-point shots, and Foster Loyer averages almost 17 points while leading Davidson in assists and free throw percentage (93%). Davidson is a top-10 offensive team nationally, but the Wildcats will need to outscore people rather than hold them down on defense. Don't be surprised if Davidson wins a couple of games.
Michigan State has weapons, too. With Gabe Brown and Max Christie, the Spartans can make shots, and they always defend and rebound. The issue is turnovers, an area that has improved of late. If Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard take care of the ball, Michigan State should do what Tom Izzo usually does in March: advance.
Winner: Michigan State. But don't be surprised if Davidson pulls off the upset. Neither team will beat Duke.
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 CSU Fullerton
Duke has a tremendous amount of talent, but it is young and inexperienced in the biggest games. Can Duke reach a Final Four and win it in Coach K's last year? Yes. But since the middle of ACC play, Duke has not been the same defensive team it was earlier in the season. The Blue Devils do not force turnovers and can get stuck offensively at times, with an unhealthy dose of isolation ball. Still, the talent is there, and Duke is capable of beating anyone. It is just that Duke is also vulnerable to being beaten in the Sweet 16, like almost any team in the field. Paolo Banchero is the Blue Devils' best player, and he can be isolated almost anywhere on the floor and find his way to the rim. He is big, strong and skilled, a matchup problem for anyone. Mark Williams is the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, and he blocks and changes shots around the rim. Wendell Moore Jr. is the team's heart and soul, and the best perimeter defender. AJ Griffin has been the best shooter, and Jeremy Roach has blossomed into putting the best pressure on the ball. Duke can beat anybody, but there are several teams that can send the Blue Devils home early. The most recent pieces of evidence are the loss to North Carolina at home and the loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament.
Fullerton is capable. The Titans are ranked outside of the Top 125 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. But without any pros on the roster, you cannot expect Fullerton to pull off this kind of upset. E.J. Anosike (16.5 points per game) was terrific all year, including in the Big West tournament, but this looks like too tall an order.
Winner: Duke. There have been a few 15-seeds that have pulled this off, but I don't see it here. Duke has too much talent.
Second round
Gonzaga vs. Boise State
This game features Mark Few against his former assistant Leon Rice. Boise State can cause Gonzaga some trouble, as can Memphis, but Gonzaga is too talented and too experienced to fail to reach yet another Sweet 16. Take the Zags here. I did, and I am never wrong. I once thought I was wrong, but it turned out I was mistaken.
Winner: Gonzaga
UConn vs. Vermont
The Huskies have too many matchup problems for Vermont. If Arkansas wins in the first round, that could cause UConn more issues, although the Razorbacks don't shoot it great. UConn should hope I am right, because it means an easier route to the Sweet 16.
Winner: UConn
Rutgers vs. Texas Tech
Rutgers has the toughness and talent to beat Texas Tech, but I like the Red Raiders' defense to dominate the game on the defensive end.
Winner: Texas Tech
Michigan State vs. Duke
Duke has not been firing on all cylinders on the defensive end, and Michigan State can take advantage of that. Duke has not been forcing turnovers, which gives Michigan State a puncher's chance. Still, Duke is more talented, so take Duke in this one. But it will be closer than you think.
Winner: Duke
Sweet 16
Gonzaga vs. UConn
The Zags have the ability to score in transition, and their passing and cutting will take them past UConn to the Elite Eight... again.
Winner: Gonzaga
Texas Tech vs. Duke
This is where it can end for Duke. Can Texas Tech score with the Blue Devils? Perhaps not. But the Red Raiders' experience and toughness will be a difference in the game. Remember, Duke has very little NCAA tournament experience.
Winner: Texas Tech
Elite Eight
Gonzaga. vs. Texas Tech
This could be an epic matchup. While many would like to see a Gonzaga-Duke rematch because the first game was such a treat, Texas Tech will spoil that. Gonzaga's offense will just get past Texas Tech's defense. This will be a tremendous game.
East: The 'Blue Blood' Region
First round
No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 Norfolk State
Baylor was 15-0 with a full roster, but injuries set in. Still, with players out, Baylor continued to win but showed some vulnerability. The biggest blow came when Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua went down for the season with a knee injury. "Everyday Jon" is the team's best defender and offensive rebounder, and nobody runs the floor harder. Without Everyday Jon, every day is simply more challenging for Baylor. Can Baylor win games in March without him? Yes. Can Baylor win the national championship? The answer seems to be "no." Baylor has gone smaller, with freshman Jeremy Sochan playing almost a point-forward, and shooters Adam Flagler and Matthew Mayer hunting shots. James Akinjo has been Baylor's top assist guy, but Baylor needs a healthy LJ Cryer back and firing to make a sustained run in the tournament. This is Baylor's third straight NCAA appearance after winning it all in 2021.
Norfolk State has not played the schedule of most upset picks but does a good job on the defensive end, holding opponents to 44% from the floor and 29% from deep. Turnovers are an issue; the Spartans cough it up on more than 20% of their offensive possessions, but they led the MEAC in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Joe Bryant Jr. (16.7 points per game) and Kris Bankston (11.3 points, 6.9 rebounds) lead the way.
Winner: Baylor. The Bears have too much talent and pride to be the second No. 1 seed to drop its first game. Ain't happening.
No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 9 Marquette
The Tar Heels have been much better over the past 14 games, and despite having lost some puzzling games, including a few blowouts, they're a solid team. Armando Bacot was worthy of ACC Player of the Year honors, and only Kentucky's Oscar Tshiebwe was a more productive rebounder. North Carolina is a different team this year, running more spread offense with ball screens and a stretch big in Brady Manek. This is a good 3-point shooting team, with Caleb Love, R.J. Davis and Manek as the primary threats. And North Carolina is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country.
Marquette has had a terrific season, with wins over Illinois, Providence, Seton Hall and Villanova (who are all in the field). Tyler Kolek is a terrific passer who averages 6 assists and Justin Lewis is a difficult matchup who averages over 17 points, but North Carolina can put Leaky Black, one of the best defenders in the country, on Lewis. Marquette is smaller and quicker, but North Carolina is bigger and a better rebounding team. Because North Carolina plays two point guards in Davis and Love, I think that the Tar Heels can handle the Marquette pressure. This game is going to be close, but Carolina has Bacot, and Marquette will have a tough time with him.
Winner: North Carolina
No. 5 Saint Mary's vs. No. 12 Wyoming/Indiana
The Gaels play at a sleep-inducing tempo but are still surprisingly fun to watch because this team grew old together, has been through the wars together and has learned how to compete and win together. The Gaels defend, and the leader is point guard Tommy Kuhse, who can handle, pass and knows how to play. Lefty Logan Johnson attacks the paint and in transition, Matthias Tass is a low-post threat and Alex Ducas can make open 3s. Saint Mary's is not as powerful as it has been in the past, but it can slow it down and play at its pace. The Gaels proved it against Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Oregon.
Wyoming was one of the last teams in the field, and the Cowboys play though the post with Graham Ike, who is a tough interior scorer and rebounder who averages 19.6 points and 9.6 rebounds. Wyoming gets to the foul line and makes them when it gets there. Hunter Maldonado is a big, downhill-driving wing who can really score. He averages 18.4 points, 5.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists. The Cowboys are going to be tough to beat, but Indiana is the better defensive team. With Trayce Jackson-Davis as the toughest matchup, Indiana needs only quality guard play to advance to play Saint Mary's. Because Xavier Johnson has been better and more efficient of late, I favor Indiana to get past Wyoming. But once the Hoosiers face Saint Mary's, they will face a tough, tempo-killing team that can beat them. Jackson-Davis is the difference. Can Matthias Tass guard him? No, but we didn't think he could guard against Gonzaga, either. Saint Mary's has been more consistent and is the older, more experienced team.
Winner: Saint Mary's
No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 13 Akron
UCLA is seeded too low as a 4-seed and is built for tournament play. With Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr., the Bruins have shot-makers and playmakers at multiple positions. UCLA is still Final Four good, and has all of the healthy players to make a serious run in the NCAA tournament. Because the Bruins can play at different tempos and have multiple isolation scorers, keep UCLA in mind for doing something special in its bracket. Juzang is still the top scoring threat at 16.7 points per game, and he can shoot it deep or pull up in the midrange. Tyger Campbell is the assist leader and hits over 41% of his open 3s. The key will be Jaquez, who is one of the most versatile and tough players in the nation, and has been on a great roll toward the end of the season. Jules Bernard is the X factor, hitting 49 3s and leading UCLA in free throw attempts while shooting 82% from the stripe.
Akron played Ohio State to a one-point game early this season and should have won. But the Zips are ranked outside of the top 100 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and that will not beat UCLA. Akron is ranked 321st in experience (1.2 years) in Division I. Ali Ali is the top scorer at 14.2 points per game, and Xavier Castaneda has hit 73 3s on 37.6% shooting. But John Groce's team is not quite ready to take down the Bruins.
Winner: UCLA
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Virginia Tech
What a great story Virginia Tech is, and the Hokies wrote the story nobody outside of their locker room would ever believe. Highly regarded to start the season, the Hokies were 10-10 after 20 games, and started out 0-4 and 2-7 in the ACC. The low point seemed to hit when Miami's Charlie Moore hit a running 40-footer at the buzzer in Cassell Coliseum to beat Virginia Tech and seemingly stop whatever momentum and belief Mike Young was trying to establish with his team. Yet the Hokies picked themselves up off the canvas and finished 13-2, winning the ACC tournament title over Duke. This team can shoot, with Hunter Cattoor, who hit nine 3s against Florida State and was magnificent in the title game against Duke, Storm Murphy and Darius Maddox making plays and big shots. Murphy is a tough floor leader who backs down to no one and is the heart and soul of the team. Justyn Mutts is the team's most versatile player, one who can guard anyone and is the team's best passer. Keve Aluma is an All-ACC performer who can operate in the post and on the perimeter, and joins Mutts as a forecourt player that Virginia Tech can play through with his passes and decision-making. Virginia Tech is on a roll, and if it can come down off the high of the ACC title game, it can win. If the Hokies continue to make shots at a high level (they hit over 39% from deep as a team, ranking fifth in the nation) don't count them out.
Texas is formidable on the defensive end and forces a lot of turnovers. Timmy Allen, the brother of New Mexico State's Teddy Allen, moves without the ball better than any forward in the Big 12 and is in constant motion. Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramey are experienced guards who can score, but Texas has dropped three straight games without scoring over 63 points. Virginia Tech is on a roll and confident, with too many matchup issues for Texas to stop.
Winner: Virginia Tech
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Yale
Early on, I felt Purdue was the best team in the country. But the Boilermakers have not defended at the level I expected. On the offensive end, Purdue can and does play beautiful basketball. Jaden Ivey averages over 17 points and is the most dynamic wing in the Big Ten. He is deadly in the open floor and gets to the paint at will. The combination of Zach Edey, the most fouled player in America without getting the calls, and Trevion Williams, a deft-passing big man, is difficult for any team to match up with, let alone Yale.
Yale is ranked outside of the top 200 in offensive efficiency. That will not do it against Purdue. Azar Swain is Yale's best shooter, hitting 68 3s and shooting 89.1% from the free throw line.
Winner: Purdue
No. 7 Murray State vs. No. 10 San Francisco
The Racers don't have Ja Morant anymore but are just as likely to win a couple of games as they were then. Why? Because Murray State has some of the same guys who ran with Ja, but they are older and better than they were then. Murray State has the best record in the nation (30-2) and can score and rebound on the offensive end (11th in the nation), and is good on the perimeter and in the post. When a smaller-conference team can score and defend in the post, it can win in the NCAA tournament. The Racers have a star in top scorer and rebounder KJ Williams, the OVC Player of the Year (18.2 points and 8.6 rebounds), and Tevin Brown, a first-team All-OVC selection, has made 100 3-pointers. Brown is incredibly versatile and productive, scoring over 1,500 points, grabbing over 500 rebounds and dishing over 400 assists in his career. Williams and Brown have made the All-OVC first team three times, and Brown is the OVC's all-time leader in made 3s. The Racers are legit. So is Justice Hill, the floor leader who is one of the hardest-working players you'll see. Hill hit eight 3s and scored 36 points against Belmont this season, and when you have three guys who can get you 30, look out.
Todd Golden has done a fabulous job building a program at San Francisco. The Dons have really good guards with Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz, and an excellent rebounder in Yauhen Massalski, averaging 9.4 rebounds and 2.2 blocked shots. Bouyea and Shabazz have combined for 138 made 3s and can make plays off the bounce. San Francisco guards the 3-point line and has beaten Davidson and UAB, both in this year's field.
Winner: Murray State
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Saint Peter's
John Calipari has a different team ... all older and very experienced. Kentucky is one of the best offensive teams in the country, with a 53% effective field goal percentage in SEC games, best in the conference. Oscar Tshiebwe has been the best and most productive player in the nation, leading Kentucky in scoring, rebounding, offensive rebounding, field goal percentage, blocks and steals while shooting over 60% from the field. Ridiculous. Meanwhile, Kellan Grady has hit over 85 3-point shots, Sahvir Wheeler leads the SEC in assists at almost seven per game and TyTy Washington Jr. has a mature all-around game, including a great pull-up and floater. While Wheeler was out with an injury, Washington broke the Kentucky assist record. Kentucky also has terrific role players who are settled in those roles but can bust out of them. Davion Mintz has hit over 40 3s and can run the point if Wheeler is out. This team has talent. Kentucky is good enough to win it all and has a legit chance.
Saint Peter's has won seven in a row and won the MAAC tournament, but the Peacocks are not a good shooting team. Kentucky will overwhelm them, and the Peacocks have no answer for Tshiebwe inside or Wheeler's speed.
Winner: Kentucky
Second round
Baylor vs. North Carolina
The Bears will have to deal with Bacot, but Baylor has the chops to beat the Tar Heels. Defense will be the difference. If LJ Cryer plays, Baylor wins. If he doesn't, the Heels can reach the Sweet 16.
Winner: Baylor
Saint Mary's vs. UCLA
This will be a fistfight. UCLA just has too much talent and can play effectively in a slower-paced game, and this will be a slower-paced game.
Winner: UCLA
Virginia Tech vs. Purdue
This game presents matchup difficulties for Purdue, because Aluma and Mutts are matchup nightmares. Still, I favor Purdue in this one. But if Virginia Tech shoots it like it did against Duke, the Hokies can beat anybody. Take Purdue in this one, but hold your breath.
Winner: Purdue
Murray State vs. Kentucky
Murray State is legit, and this game reminds me of the game Kentucky played against Wofford a few years ago. It is not a no-brainer, as the Racers will want a piece of the Blue Bloods in Big Blue Nation. Kentucky is just too strong.
Winner: Kentucky
Sweet 16
Baylor vs. UCLA
This is where it ends for Baylor. If healthy, Baylor is Final Four-bound, but injuries will keep the Bears from repeating that feat. UCLA started the season at No. 1 and will reach the Elite Eight for the second straight season.
Winner: UCLA
Purdue vs. Kentucky
I cannot wait for this game. The Purdue big guys against Oscar Tshiebwe and the Kentucky backcourt will be epic. Because Kentucky is the better defensive team, advance the Wildcats to the Elite Eight.
Winner: Kentucky
Elite Eight
Kentucky vs. UCLA
The Battle of the Blue Bloods: Kentucky has Tshiebwe and UCLA doesn't. Remember, Juzang started his career at Kentucky before going back home to Los Angeles. That will be a fun storyline to follow, as Juzang has blossomed in Westwood. The one guy who can really cause Kentucky trouble is Jaquez.
Winner: Kentucky
South: The 'Upset Potential' Region
First round
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Wright State/Bryant
What Tommy Lloyd has done in Tucson is remarkable. Arizona is among just a handful of teams that is proficient on both offense and defense, ranking in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Even without Kerr Kriisa (ankle) in the lineup (as they were in the Pac-12 tournament), the Wildcats can just plug in Justin Kier and keep on plugging, winning the tourney title short-handed. The Wildcats lead the nation in assists and assist rate, and shoot 58% on 2-point field goals, fifth in the nation. One reason: the big guys really run and Arizona is a great transition team. Azuolas Tubelis and Christian Koloko both sprint the floor, and Arizona has courageous passers without being reckless. Bennedict Mathurin is an NBA-caliber wing who leads this team in scoring and can put up numbers from deep, cutting and in the open floor. Mathurin had 27 points against UCLA in the Pac-12 final. If Kriisa comes back fully from the ankle injury, he provides a guard who plays fast and makes shots. Kriisa averages almost 5 assists and has hit 75 3-point shots. Healthy, Arizona can beat anyone.
Bryant won the Northeast Conference tournament and league title for the first time in program history and has reached its first NCAA tournament. Peter Kiss leads the nation in scoring at just under 25 points per game, while Charles Pride is among the NEC's top scorers (18.2 points per game), making them the highest-scoring duo in Division I. NEC teams have played in the First Four in each of the past eight NCAA tournaments, going 3-5 in those games. An NEC team has not reached the round of 32 since 1980, when Iona and Jim Valvano won a first-round game representing what was then called the ECAC Metro Conference.
The Wright State Raiders are making their fourth NCAA appearance, going 0-3 in their previous stops in 1993, 2007 and 2018. Tanner Holden averages over 20 points, second in the Horizon League, which has lost its past 10 games in the NCAA tournament. (The league's last NCAA win was by Butler in the 2011 Final Four against VCU.) Wright State can shoot and score, but can the Raiders get stops against a high NCAA seed? No. Wright State will beat Bryant in a toss-up game, but Arizona will beat the winner, no matter which team it is.
Winner: Arizona
No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 TCU
Seton Hall and TCU are mirror images of each other, but the Pirates have some really good players. Jared Rhoden is one of the most underrated players in the country and averages over 16 points per game. Ike Obiagu is one of the best shot-blockers in the country, sending back over three offerings per game. Seton Hall is often the better defensive team but can struggle to score at times. The Pirates will not be the better defensive team against TCU, though, as the Frogs can really stick to you. Still, the Pirates have beaten Michigan, Rutgers, Texas, UConn and Creighton, all in the field.
TCU has Mike Miles and Emanuel Miller, both of whom average double figures, but the Horned Frogs turn the ball over on about 23% of their possessions. What TCU can really do is offensive rebound, as the Frogs grab over 38% of their own misses.
Winner: Seton Hall
No. 5 Houston vs. No. 12 UAB
Houston is the most interesting team in the field. Before losing Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark for the season, the Cougars were a terror on defense and incredibly hard to play against. Since those injuries, Kelvin Sampson has figured out how to push his best players as they play more minutes and manufacture more offense. Houston remains in the top 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and the Cougars remain an excellent offensive rebounding team. Kyler Edwards, a transfer from Texas Tech, has go-to ability as a scorer, and there is no more explosive player in the nation than Taze Moore, who has his head above the rim more than the guy on the ladder cleaning the glass before the game. Big men Josh Carlton, Reggie Chaney and Fabian White Jr. are the keys to Houston's chances. If they can be a dominating presence, Houston is a second-weekend team.
Andy Kennedy has a team that can really shoot it. UAB hits over 38% of its deep shots, and is a top-10 3-point shooting team nationally. UAB is led by dynamic guard Jordan "Jelly" Walker, a 5-11 difference-maker who averages over 20 points and hung 40 on Middle Tennessee. Trey Jemison can rebound and defend, but when you have a superstar like Walker, you can beat someone. The problem is, Houston is adept at stopping people, and Walker will face a determined defense.
Winner: Houston
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Chattanooga
If you haven't seen David Jean-Baptiste's buzzer-beater against Furman yet, what is wrong with you? When you can do something like that, you are dangerous. Jean-Baptiste, who hit 81 3s on the season, teams with SoCon Player of the Year Malachi Smith to form a very good backcourt, and the Mocs have former Kansas big man Silvio De Sousa to rebound, score around the rim, and defend in the post. De Sousa averaged 11.1 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.1 blocks. Smith is a difference-maker at over 20 points per game, and is a three-level scorer who can create his own shot, back you down, and get to the foul line. Chattanooga defends the 3-point line well, holding opponents to just 30% from deep, best in the SoCon.
Still, it is hard to imagine that the Mocs will have an answer for Kofi Cockburn and his 21.1 points per game inside. Add in Alfonso Plummer and Trent Frazier, and you have a problem for Chattanooga. Last year, Illinois found trouble in Loyola Chicago, but not this year.
Winner: Illinois
No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Michigan
Colorado State has had a great season, and David Roddy and Isaiah Stevens are truly legit. Roddy averages 19.5 points as an undersized big guy, and Stevens is a terrific guard who averages 4.8 assists. The Rams bang down free throws at a high rate, hitting over 77% from the line, but Michigan has Hunter Dickinson, and the Rams will have no answer for him and his 18.3 points per game. Michigan was fortunate to make the field, but Colorado State was unfortunate to have Michigan as a first-round opponent. Michigan leads the Big Ten in 2-point field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Michigan is the lower seed but should be favored in this game.
Winner: Michigan
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Longwood
The Vols are the SEC tournament champions and are a legitimate threat to reach a Final Four and win this thing. Tennessee can go small on you, with multiple handlers and tough defenders. Santiago Vescovi is the leader, and the lefty is a point guard who can score and will stick his nose in there and rebound and fight you. Vescovi shoots 39.6% from deep with 95 made 3s. Kennedy Chandler and Zakai Zeigler are both fearless freshman point guards with speed and toughness, and Chandler is a truly special talent who is a creative layup maker and transition terror. The key has been the emergence of Josiah-Jordan James, who has found his shooting stroke while continuing to be an elite defender and rebounder, and a connector of everything on the floor. Tennessee forces a turnover on 23% of its opponents' possessions and does a good job on the offensive glass. Tennessee is not great finishing team, shooting only 45% from 2-point range, worst in the SEC.
Longwood is a high-scoring, mature and confident team that thrives in transition. But it lost by 33 points to Iowa to start the season and did not beat a team ranked in the KenPom top 150. The Lancers are still capable, winning eight straight games and 19 of their past 20. Isaiah Wilkins, who started his career at Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, hit 56 3s and is a strong-bodied shooter who makes over 40% from deep. He makes big shots and is battle-tested. Justin Hill leads the Lancers in assists and puts pressure on the defense with his speed in the open floor. DeShaun Wade is one of the best shooters and hungriest scorers in the country, hitting 68 3s at close to a 47% rate. Longwood is a high-assist team that trades a good shot for a better one and will not be afraid. The Lancers went 15-1 in conference play and have won 26 games overall, a program record, after never having won more than 17 games in a season.
Winner: Tennessee
No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Loyola Chicago
Ohio State is a very good offensive team, led by E.J. Liddell and super freshman Malaki Branham. Liddell is a first-team All-Big Ten performer, and Branham is blossoming into a star with his length and scoring ability. The Buckeyes score easily but have not been the defensive team that Chris Holtmann would like. Still, Ohio State has beaten Duke, Akron, Seton Hall, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana and Illinois, all in this year's field.
The problem is, Ohio State has to play Loyola Chicago. Sister Jean is back, and she has a chance to make some noise. The Ramblers have won at least two games in each of their past two appearances. They have already beaten Arizona State, DePaul, San Francisco and Vanderbilt, and played Michigan State to a one-possession loss, and Auburn to a single-digit loss in November. This team is solid, smart and no joke. Lucas Williamson is the Ramblers' best player and one of the best defenders in the country, earning MVC Defensive Player of the Year honors. Aher Uguak, a cousin of Luol Deng, scored 16 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in the MVC final and is a menace on defense as well. Born in Egypt and raised in Canada, Uguak started his career at New Mexico, and is an athletic and versatile mismatch who can guard any position on the floor. Braden Norris is the best passer and most accurate deep shooter, hitting 64 3s at a near 44% clip. Loyola hits over 56% from 2-point territory, among the top 25 in the nation.
Winner: Loyola Chicago. This is an upset, but neither team is likely to beat Villanova. Take the upset here, making Ohio State the victim to major upsets in back-to-back seasons.
No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 15 Delaware
The Wildcats can play four guards or go bigger, but still lack significant size up front. What Villanova does not lack, however, is experience and championship DNA. Villanova has the best culture in college basketball and will back you down and play off of 2 feet for 40 minutes. The Wildcats pivot, fake and play off drives with great spacing. Collin Gillespie remains the best floor general in college basketball, and Justin Moore, Brandon Slater and Caleb Daniels form a solid backcourt that can all handle, pass and shoot. Villanova also has Jermaine Samuels, who can operate against a big or small matchup. And Villanova can salt away games late as the best free throw shooting team in the country, hitting 82% from the stripe.
The Blue Hens won just the second Colonial title in school history as a 5-seed, even though they were a frequent winner in the America East. This is the sixth NCAA appearance for Delaware, and the first since 2014, with Delaware 0-5 in NCAA tournament play. The Blue Hens led the Colonial in field goal percentage and are led by Jameer Nelson Jr., the son of Saint Joseph's great Jameer Nelson.
Winner: Villanova
Second round
Arizona vs. Seton Hall
The Wildcats are too difficult for Seton Hall to match up with. Because Arizona scores so easily, with or without Kriisa, the Wildcats will advance.
Winner: Arizona
Houston vs. Illinois
Houston has real courage and fight but does not have the depth to get past Illinois. Cockburn will be too much.
Winner: Illinois
Michigan vs. Tennessee
Tennessee is on a roll and has true believers. While the Vols can get stuck offensively at times, their lineup versatility and defensive toughness will carry them to the Sweet 16.
Winner: Tennessee
Villanova vs. Loyola Chicago
The Ramblers will be a tough out for the Wildcats, but Villanova will have an answer, winning in a nail-biter.
Winner: Villanova
Sweet 16
Arizona vs. Illinois
In 2005, Arizona and Illinois played one of the greatest games in NCAA tournament history. In this one, Arizona will get a measure of revenge.
Winner: Arizona
Villanova vs. Tennessee
This has a chance to be a classic but Villanova's veteran group, led by Gillespie, has the slight edge in a game of this magnitude over Tennessee and its talented freshman Chandler.
Winner: Villanova
Elite Eight
Arizona vs. Villanova
Arizona is the best passing team in the country and Villanova is not far behind. Because of Arizona's size and the defensive versatility of Koloko and Terry, I will take Arizona to win and advance to the Final Four.
Winner: Arizona
Midwest: The 'Player of the Year' Region
First round
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Texas Southern/Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
This is not Bill Self's most talented team, but it is among his most together teams. Ochai Agbaji has been National Player of the Year-worthy all season long, and he is a 20-PPG scorer who is one of the best 3-point shooters in the nation. Christian Braun is a courageous driver and guard rebounder who is Kansas' most versatile player. A key for Kansas is the interior play of David McCormack and the versatility of Jalen Wilson. McCormack is an outstanding offensive rebounder, and when he plays well, Kansas usually plays well. Wilson is the top defensive rebounder and can rip and run, drive it, and get to the free throw line. Kansas needs to get downhill, draw help and kick to open people or dump it inside. When they do that, the Jayhawks are Final Four-capable.
Texas Southern turns the ball over at a 21% rate and struggles to make free throws consistently. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi turns it over at a similar rate and is among the bottom third in Division I in perimeter shooting. Neither team will beat Kansas.
Winner: Kansas
No. 8 San Diego State vs. No. 9 Creighton
San Diego State is a great defensive team, led by rim protector Nathan Mensah, who averages over 7 rebounds and 2 blocked shots. Second in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, the Aztecs are outside the top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency. But Matt Bradley, the transfer from Cal, leads San Diego State in scoring at just under 18 points per game. Still, the Aztecs can get stuck offensively, and you need to score efficiently to win in the NCAA tournament.
Creighton is in the same boat, a terrific defensive team that can struggle on the offensive end. Ryan Hawkins leads the Bluejays in scoring, and Ryan Kalkbrenner is the top rebounder and rim protector. But, because Creighton shoots over 54% from 2-point territory, the Bluejays have the edge.
Winner: Creighton
No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Richmond
Iowa can really score, and the Hawkeyes' defense has greatly improved over the past month, as evidenced by the Big Ten tournament title win against Purdue. Iowa rarely turns the ball over and has a superstar in Keegan Murray, who averages 23.6 points and is one of the most versatile players in the nation. Jordan Bohannon has made close to 80 3s on 38% shooting and is the Big Ten's all-time leader in 3-point shooting.
Richmond has Grant Golden inside and Jacob Gilyard, one of the best defenders and steals guys in the country. Still, Iowa is better and has Murray, a lottery pick.
Winner: Iowa
No. 4 Providence vs. No. 12 South Dakota State
South Dakota State won the Summit League crown for the sixth time, but it has lost in the first round in each of the its prior five NCAA tournament appearances. This sixth NCAA bid ties Valparaiso for most in Summit League history. The Jackrabbits are the best offensive and defensive team in the Summit League, and they are the best shooting team in the country, shooting over 44% from deep as a team. South Dakota State leads Division I in field goal percentage (52%), 3-point percentage (45%) and is second in the nation in scoring (87.2 PPG) behind only Gonzaga. South Dakota State finished 20-0 in league play, joining only Murray State to rip through a league without a loss. In league play, South Dakota State shot close to 46% from behind the arc. When you can spread it and really shoot it, you can beat somebody in tournament play. Three players average at least 15 points: Baylor Scheierman averages 16 points, almost 8 rebounds, just under 5 assists and has hit 80 threes, along with Douglas Wilson and Noah Freidel. The Jackrabbits have beaten Nevada, Washington State, George Mason and Bradley. They can play. The question is, can South Dakota State get stops, as its defense is ranked in the bottom-third of Division I. The Summit League has won in the NCAA tournament before -- Oral Roberts made the Sweet 16 just last season.
Providence is an outstanding team with toughness and experience. The Friars can shoot the ball, and they have a low-post anchor in Nate Watson, who averages close to 14 points. Justin Minaya is one of the Big East's best and toughest defenders and Jared Bynum makes winning plays. The problem will be South Dakota State's scoring and shooting. Providence prides itself on taking away 3s and forcing you into tough 2s. But I smell an upset here. And it is worth the risk, as Iowa will likely beat the winner of this game.
Winner: South Dakota State
No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 Iowa State
The LSU Tigers just lost Will Wade forever when he was fired after the NCAA notice of allegations put in writing what the LSU administration has known for years, but about which it clearly didn't care. Does that motivate or deflate the team as it heads into a national championship event? That is anybody's guess. LSU is a great defensive team with length and athleticism, and the ability to shut down opposing offenses with pressure and forcing turnovers. Tari Eason is the best player and the best Sixth Man in the nation. Add in Darius Days and you have two formidable talents, but LSU does not shoot the ball well and tends to turn it over too much. LSU is a mixed bag, but it is talented and athletic.
Iowa State does not score easily and does not make free throws consistently, but the Cyclones sure do guard people. Izaiah Brockington leads Iowa State in spring at 17.5 points per game. Because Iowa State is so tough, I think the Cyclones can get the win here.
Winner: Iowa State
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Colgate
Remember, Colgate beat Syracuse in the Carrier Dome in November, putting up 100 points on the Orange. Yet, this team also started 4-10 before winning 19 of its last 20 to win the Patriot League and earn a trip to the tournament. Colgate shoots over 40% from deep, second in the nation to South Dakota State. Top scorer Nelly Cummings averages 14.5 points and Jack Ferguson shoots 42% from deep and has hit 87 threes on the season. The Raiders are not proficient on the defensive end, but shooting can keep them in games against the big shots.
But Wisconsin has one of the best players in the country in Johnny Davis, and Colgate cannot match that. Davis put the cape on and scored 37 points at Purdue, 30 points at Indiana and 25 points at Michigan State, with Wisconsin winning all three games and winning the Big Ten title. I don't see Wisconsin and Johnny Davis losing to Colgate.
Winner: Wisconsin
No. 7 USC vs. No. 10 Miami
The Trojans do not have lottery talent, but they have a lot of really good players who play well off of each other. USC protects the lane and the rim and makes it difficult to score inside of the arc. Yet, USC also guards the 3-point line, limiting foes to just 35% in Pac-12 games, second in the Pac-12. Isaiah Mobley averages 15 points and Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis leads the team in 3-point shooting. Chevez Goodwin is the top offensive rebounder, and Drew Peterson is the most versatile, hitting 46 threes on 41% shooting and serving as a point forward for Andy Enfield. Peterson was magnificent against UCLA with Mobley out, going for 27 points and 12 rebounds.
Miami is an old team, older than the Miami Heat. But, the Hurricanes have multiple playmakers and play a five-out motion offense that allows those playmakers to make plays. Kameron McGusty is a first-team All-ACC performer, Isaiah Wong is a shot-making wing, Charlie Moore is a gamer at the point and Jordan Miller is long and athletic and can drive it. Miami is not great defensively, but it is excellent at forcing turnovers and getting steals, trapping ball screens and going after the ball. USC is perfectly capable of beating Miami, but I like Miami's ability to make individual plays against the Trojans.
Winner: Miami
No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 15 Jacksonville State
Auburn lost to Texas A&M in the SEC tournament quarterfinals, and no team has won a national championship losing in the quarterfinals since Villanova in 1985. That is a long time ago, but it's not unprecedented. Auburn plays incredibly hard and can really defend. But the Tigers are a puzzle on the offensive end. Auburn can make shots, but does not consistently shoot well. Auburn has really good guards, especially Wendell Green Jr., but they have not been consistent on offense. Auburn shoots only 32% from deep, including 30% from deep in SEC play, ranking in the bottom third of Division I. So, inconsistent offense is the bad news, but the good news is really good. There is not a team out there that Auburn cannot beat. With two forces of nature in Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler, Auburn can absolutely cover up the rim on defense. Kessler is the best defender in the country, blocks shots with his right and mostly his left hand, and Smith blocks what Kessler doesn't get to. Smith is a superior talent who is a beautiful jump-shooter who can isolate and shoot over anyone, hitting over 44% from deep. Auburn can get to New Orleans, but can get clipped in the Sweet 16, too.
This is Jacksonville State's second NCAA tournament appearance after losing to Louisville as a No. 15 seed in 2017. Jacksonville State is a solid 3-point shooting team, hitting 40% from deep in ASUN games and 38% from deep on the season, top-15 nationally. Darian Adams leads this team in scoring at 15.6 points per game, and Demaree King shoots 46% from three-point range, making 83 threes on the year.
Winner: Auburn
Second round
Kansas vs. Creighton
The Jayhawks have too much firepower with Agbaji, Braun and Wilson. Kansas wins.
Winner: Kansas
Iowa vs. South Dakota State
Iowa has Keegan Murray, and South Dakota State doesn't. Nor does Providence, should the seeds hold up. Iowa wins.
Winner: Iowa
Iowa State vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin has one weapon too many for Iowa State to stop. Brad Davison and Johnny Davis will be enough.
Winner: Wisconsin
Auburn vs. Miami
Although Auburn has struggled on the offensive end lately, the Auburn defense will best be able to deal with Miami's five-out offense. I like Auburn to advance.
Winner: Auburn
Sweet 16
Kansas vs. Iowa
A battle of two Wooden Award candidates in Agbaji and Murray. Because Kansas has multiple ball handlers against Iowa's different defenses, I favor Kansas to move on.
Winner: Kansas
Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Johnny Davis vs. Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler. Damn, this will be really fun. Because Wisconsin can slow the tempo of the game, the Badgers can slow down Auburn's attack. Wisconsin clips the Tigers.
Winner: Wisconsin
Elite Eight
Kansas vs. Wisconsin
Now, it is Agbaji against Davis, another Player of the Year battle. Kansas and Wisconsin have equal talent, but Kansas is a bit better inside. I like Kansas to advance to New Orleans.
Winner: Kansas
Final Four
Kansas vs. Arizona
Arizona is the more balanced team and the more talented team. If healthy, Arizona wins.
Winner: Arizona
Gonzaga vs. Kentucky
Although Tshiebwe presents major problems for anyone, Gonzaga having Timme and Holmgren will make the difference. But can Gonzaga get out in transition? Gonzaga has more NCAA experience and will advance to the title game ... again.
Winner: Gonzaga
National Championship Game
Arizona vs. Gonzaga
So much of this game depends upon the health of Kerr Kriisa, and the battle between Tubelis and Koloko against Timme and Holmgren will be fascinating. I like Gonzaga to cut down the nets for the first time. Mark Few will get his first title, and the next stop will be the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.
Winner: Gonzaga