ESPN's resident Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has spent months considering what the 2022 NCAA tournament bracket might look like. Now that the matchups are set, he gets to consider how the field of 68 will play out.
Joey Brackets and his team have spent the hours following the bracket's release poring over the profiles of each of the 68 teams, identifying strengths, weaknesses and the elements of each's résumé that might allow them to survive and advance or see their road to New Orleans for the 2022 Final Four come to an abrupt end. Predictions for the tournament road of every team, as well as "eye test" ranks and the predictable and unpredictable elements that each team might encounter are included.
Teams below are organized by region, in the order the bracket is laid out, for easy use of bracket-filling. Select wisely, using all the information presented herein. And as Joey Brackets might say, Happy Hoops!
Follow this link for a printable 2022 NCAA tournament bracket, and visit this link to fill out a 2022 NCAA tournament bracket. You can find Jay Bilas' More-Than-5-Minute Bracket here.
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No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Predictable
Gonzaga returns to the NCAA tournament, and, as always, the Zags play fast. The difference this year comes on the interior. Mark Few has always had great guards. He's never had a frontcourt like this, pairing All-American Drew Timme and freshman phenom Chet Holmgren. The Zags want to beat you down the floor and establish their weapons in the paint for an easy bucket.
Unpredictable
While Gonzaga is very skilled on the interior, the Zags have blushed when faced with aggressive defense and physicality. Timme's post game is built on finesse and Holmgren's thin frame can leave him out of position. Despite the new faces in the Zags' lineup, opposing coaches will be looking to Baylor's bully-ball game plan from last year's title game.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 1
Résumé rating: 6
NCAA seed list: 1
Joey Brackets says...
Mark Few has built a machine in Spokane. His Gonzaga teams have more NCAA tournament wins over the past five years than any other program in the country. That trend should continue this year, with the Zags making it all the way to New Orleans and cutting down the nets at last.
Final field rank: No. 1
No. 16 Georgia State Panthers
Predictable
Dr. James Naismith may have invented the game with peach baskets, but college teams in Georgia -- aka the Peach State -- have struggled lately. The lone exception has been Georgia State, a Sun Belt program that has been to the Big Dance in 2018, 2019 and now 2022. The senior-laden Panthers come into the tourney white-hot, riding a 10-game win streak.
Unpredictable
There's lots to like about the Panthers. The starting five features three double-figure scoring guards in Corey Allen, Kane Williams and Justin Roberts and a nightly double-double threat in lefty lunch-pail type Eliel Nsoseme. But the Panthers' shooting aim is suspect (.403 FG, .329 3PT), so an untimely dry spell against an active defense figures to be Georgia State's undoing.
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 58
Résumé rating: 61
NCAA seed list: 61
Joey Brackets says...
Georgia State has the necessary ingredients (i.e., senior guards, Power-5-sized bigs, a propensity to force turnovers, a quality coach in Rob Lanier) to be an office pool wrecker -- just like in 2015 when the Panthers stunned Baylor. But that's against "regular good" teams, not juggernauts like Gonzaga.
Final field rank: No. 61
No. 8 Boise State Broncos
Predictable
Much like Colorado State, the Broncos used serious disappointment from a year ago to come back even stronger. Mountain West Coach of the Year Leon Rice's team combined length and experience to construct an elite defense, outlasting San Diego State three different times. The Mountain West regular-season and tournament champions have played a ton of tight games and don't scare easily.
Unpredictable
It's hard to believe that the Broncos are the same team that finished November at 3-4. Their free throw shooting remains a serious liability. A 57% outing against the Aztecs this past Saturday didn't end up costing them the Mountain West tournament title, but it's something to keep an eye on.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 35
Résumé rating: 25
NCAA seed list: 29
Joey Brackets says
The Broncos enter the Big Dance with 24 wins in their past 27 games. Their poise and mental toughness helped them become just the fifth team in league history to win both the regular-season and tournament titles in the same year. Senior all-conference selection Abu Kigab helps the Broncos get past Memphis before falling to the all-powerful Zags.
Final field rank: No. 24
No. 9 Memphis Tigers
Predictable
You'd better box out center Jalen Duren, who set an AAC tournament record with 20 rebounds in the quarterfinals against UCF. The Tigers rebound well as a team and ranked 31st in the country in rebounding margin. Memphis is also hot, winning 12 of their past 13 games before dropping the AAC tournament final to Houston.
Unpredictable
Will star freshman Emoni Bates be able to play? He's been out since Jan. 27 with a back injury and didn't travel with the team to the AAC tournament. Bates was averaging 10.4 points and 3.6 rebounds per game before the injury. Of course, it may be addition by subtraction given the Tigers' record without him.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 21
Résumé rating: 36
NCAA seed list: 36
Joey Brackets says...
Memphis can absolutely get by Boise State, but it's hard to see the Tigers making it out of the first weekend with a likely matchup against Gonzaga awaiting them. I don't see them getting even that far: they fall to the Broncos in their NCAA opener.
Final field rank: No. 44
No. 5 UConn Huskies
Predictable
The Huskies are one of the longest, most explosive teams in college basketball and Danny Hurley takes full advantage by sending his guys to the offensive glass all game long. Only Kentucky grabs more of its own misses than UConn, which constantly looks to get easy putbacks at the rim or kickouts for a 3 after an offensive board.
Unpredictable
UConn's defense can be tenacious, but at times it can overextend. The Huskies allowed opponents to head to the free throw line at the second highest rate in the Big East this season. UConn particularly struggled when it was unable to stay aggressive on the offensive end. Six of the Huskies' nine losses came when they attempted fewer than 15 free throws.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 17
Résumé rating: 22
Seed score: 17
Joey Brackets says...
Before the brackets were announced, no one in the field was hoping to land in a region with UConn. The Huskies are a bear to play against, forcing opponents to battle for every loose ball. That is a quality that translates to wins in March. UConn will take out New Mexico State before losing a nail-biter to Arkansas.
Final field rank: No. 20
No. 12 New Mexico State Aggies
Predictable
The Aggie defense is remarkably solid, ranking in the top 35 nationally in both 2-point and 3-point percentage allowed. New Mexico State plays with high energy without falling victim to mistakes. The Aggies led the WAC in block rate while allowing the lowest free throw rate in the conference.
Unpredictable
New Mexico State ranked outside the top 300 in the nation at taking care of the ball, struggling to control turnovers at times this season. That has been a troubling development for such an experienced team. The Aggies lost or tied the turnover battle in four of their six losses this season.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 53
Résumé rating: 47
NCAA seed list: 50
Joey Brackets says...
New Mexico State has been dominant in the Western Athletic Conference in recent years, but that success hasn't translated to the NCAA tournament. The Aggies have 10 WAC titles since 2007, under four different head coaches, but have not won in the Big Dance since 1993. That trend is set to continue this year with another first-round exit against UConn.
Final field rank: No. 50
No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks
Predictable
A midseason lineup change invigorated the Razorbacks, upgrading their defense and creating a path for another deep NCAA tournament run. The uptempo Razorbacks are top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Wins over Auburn and Kentucky in the past month are also encouraging as Arkansas looks to reach the Final Four for the first time in 27 years.
Unpredictable
Inconsistent offense hindered the Razorbacks throughout conference play. They are 314th in 3-point shooting and can be loose with the basketball at times (112th in turnover rate). Arkansas scored less than one point per possession in nine of its 20 games vs. SEC competition and shot worse than 30% beyond the arc in five of the past seven games.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 19
Résumé rating: 16
NCAA seed list: 16
Joey Brackets says...
Defense travels in the NCAA tournament, and the Razorbacks have the explosiveness and size to impose their will on lesser opponents. But their offense was inefficient away from Bud Walton Arena and they've endured massive roster turnover since last year's run to the Elite Eight. Even so, we like the Razorbacks to reach their Sweet 16 ceiling.
Final field rank: No. 12
No. 13 Vermont Catamounts
Predictable
Vermont is as hot as any team in the nation, losing just once since Dec. 8. The Catamounts are driven by their offense, one of the most efficient in college basketball thanks to the third-best 2-point shooting percentage in the country. Fifth-year senior guard Ben Shungu leads the way, posting 16 points per game and 42% shooting outside the arc.
Unpredictable
Vermont's defense is built to stop penetration and force opponents into jump shots. This allows the Catamounts to make up for a lack of size in the paint. That works just fine against America East opponents, but was not enough against Vermont's power conference foes. Both Maryland and Providence hammered Vermont in the paint, on the glass and at the free throw line.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 46
Résumé rating: 53
NCAA seed list: 53
Joey Brackets says...
The Catamounts are not your typical America East Conference champ, moseying into the NCAA tournament just happy to be there. Vermont played three conference tournament games, winning them all by 30-plus points. These Catamounts mean business and have the look and feel of a Cinderella story. Vermont can win this week, but is more likely to struggle against the superior athletes at Arkansas.
Final field rank: No. 52
No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide
Predictable
Alabama is explosive, erratic and enigmatic. The Crimson Tide attempts 48% of its shots beyond the arc (12th), but have made only 31% of them (307th). Turnovers have also been an issue (268th) and denied Alabama the opportunity to create the easy shots around the basket Nate Oats prefers (ninth in 2-point shooting).
Unpredictable
Alabama stumbled home, dropping four of its past six games because of an erratic offense and inconsistent defense. When the 3-point shots are dropping, the Crimson Tide can defeat any team in the bracket, topping Gonzaga, Houston and Tennessee this season. But soft defense and poor defensive rebounding also produced losses to SEC afterthoughts Georgia and Missouri.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 22
Résumé rating: 27
NCAA seed list: 21
Joey Brackets says...
Such a disappointing season in Tuscaloosa, where Oats and the Crimson Tide faithful hoped to build upon their 2021 SEC championship and Sweet 16 appearance. This team hasn't shown the requisite toughness on the backboard or defending the rim, and the high turnover rate combined with a brisk pace allows opponents to score points in bunches. Alabama is primed for an early exit, but should sneak past Rutgers or Notre Dame before doing so.
Final field rank: No. 23
No. 11 (First Four) Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Predictable
Rutgers' schizophrenic 2022 hoops résumé -- which includes bad losses to Lafayette and UMass (when Geo Baker was injured) along with six Quadrant 1 triumphs -- was deemed worthy of an NCAA tournament invite. The Scarlet Knights play with passion, embrace their roles and have two fearless closers in Ron Harper Jr. and Baker as well as a budding star in big man Clifford Omoruyi.
Unpredictable
Steve Pikiell's team has many positive qualities and its puzzle pieces fit perfectly together. But the Scarlet Knights shoot just .336 from behind the arc and quite simply aren't the same team when they leave Piscataway (just four wins away from home in 2021-22). And we checked -- the Scarlet Knights' first-round NCAA tourney game isn't at the RAC.
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 49
Résumé rating: 50
NCAA seed list: 44
Joey Brackets says...
For the first time in over 40 years, Rutgers is playing in back-to-back NCAA tournaments. Harper, Baker and defensive whiz Caleb McConnell have changed this program's trajectory. And after beating Clemson and then scaring Houston in the 2021 NCAAs, Rutgers' goal is to at least reach the Sweet 16 this time around. Doable? Certainly. More likely is a First Four win over Notre Dame before Alabama sends the Scarlet Knights back to the RAC.
Final field rank: No. 47
No. 11 (First Four) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Predictable
Mike Brey's squad is in the Big Dance for the first time in five years, fueled by South Bend native Blake Wesley's decision to stay home. Wesley, a future pro and the Irish's top scorer, leads a seven-man rotation that features double-digit scorers Dane Goodwin and Paul Atkinson Jr.
Unpredictable
Notre Dame deploys a four-guard lineup, allowing Brey's club to knock down 3-balls (the Irish were 14-1 in regular season games in which they canned 10 or more trifectas) and to effectively guard the 3-point line. The downside is that Notre Dame's overall lack of size occasionally results in the Irish not being able to hold up against physical frontcourts.
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 44
Résumé rating: 46
NCAA seed list: 47
Joey Brackets says...
The trade-off with small-ball lineups like Notre Dame's is that rebounding and interior D can be serious issues against a team with a viable inside attack. In close games, which occur often in March Madness, giving up extra possessions by not securing rebounds can get teams eliminated sooner than they'd like. That will be the Irish's undoing against Rutgers.
Final field rank: No. 66
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Predictable
Texas Tech may not be as explosive as the team that went to the NCAA championship game in 2019, but the Red Raiders still have that ferocious defense. Their seventh-ranked defense has propelled them to the 12th-best point differential in Division I. By the way, is there a better name in college hoops than Adonis Arms?
Unpredictable
Tech may lack the dominant inside presence necessary to make a deep run in the tournament. Bryson Williams is a talented big man, but he's more of a wing player. The Red Raiders' best rebounder is Marcus Santos-Silva who stands just 6-7. They do not shoot the 3 well (31.4%), meaning they will struggle to erase a big deficit.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 19
Résumé rating: 16
NCAA seed list: 16
Joey Brackets says...
No one wants to see Mark Adams' team on their side of the bracket, because the Red Raiders will hound you. They'll force you to take shots you shouldn't take, and even though their tallest player among the top nine in minutes is 6-8, they'll pound the boards. They should make it to the second weekend fairly comfortably before taking Gonzaga to the limit in the Elite Eight.
Final field rank: No. 6
No. 14 Montana State Bobcats
Predictable
Montana State is back in the NCAA tournament for the fourth time in school history, ending 25 consecutive seasons of missing out on the Big Dance. After starting the year 9-5, the Bobcats have been on a tear, winning 18 of their past 20 games. Momentum is on their side heading into the tournament.
Unpredictable
Montana State will ultimately need to win the battle from deep to stay in games, but it starts inside. Per ImpactEvaluator.com, Montana State is in the 91st percentile in paint touch volume. If big man Jubrile Belo can be a force inside, it will create more open looks from the perimeter for a team that shoots it well.
-- Frank Dehel
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 59
Résumé rating: 54
NCAA seed list: 58
Joey Brackets says...
Montana State's momentum will come to an end unless it can shoot the 3-ball well. The Bobcats are at a height disadvantage across multiple positions and winning from beyond the arc will be their only way to offset the height differential. Montana State bows out against Arkansas.
Final field rank: No. 56
No. 7 Michigan State Spartans
Predictable
Lacking the one true superstar that the Big Ten's premier teams all had this winter, the Michigan State Spartans instead subscribed to a strength-in-numbers approach. Tom Izzo's rotation goes 10 deep and features just one double-figure scorer (forward Gabe Brown), but has eight different players who average at least 6.5 points per game -- resulting in a different hero each night.
Unpredictable
The lack of a truly elite player has MSU doing more committee work than the U.S. Senate -- they do point guard by committee, score by committee and rebound by committee. But MSU's wings aren't adept ball handlers and, as a result, Michigan State is one of the Big Ten's most turnover-prone teams.
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 31
Résumé rating: 23
NCAA seed list: 27
Joey Brackets says...
"Izzone" residents have spent much of the winter bemoaning what the Spartans don't have (a standout low-post performer and the all-league point guard MSU normally has). But the Spartans enter the NCAAs with no lofty expectations, one of the best coaches in all of sports and eight guys who can put the ball in the basket. But Davidson is just as good or better.
Final field rank: No. 39
No. 10 Davidson Wildcats
Predictable
Bob McKillop's program responded to the loss of all-conference guard Kellan Grady to transfer by going out and getting someone on his level. The addition of Michigan State transplant Foster Loyer elevated Davidson's offense to heights not seen since the Wildcats' first year in the Atlantic 10 and the program's most wins in over a decade.
Unpredictable
Davidson's defense is not on the same level as its offense. The Wildcats remain very average here and are subject to plenty of lapses, especially defending 3-point shooters. Some of those moments led to close calls against bottom-of-the-barrel teams in conference play.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 39
Résumé rating: 31
NCAA seed list: 40
Joey Brackets says
Davidson has enough scoring options to make opposing coaches keep a large supply of Tylenol on hand. McKillop's group of assassins, led by top sniper Loyer, will execute enough to get past Michigan State and continue the run to the Sweet 16, ending Coach K's career in the process.
Final field rank: No. 15
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils
Predictable
There are 21 Duke players on current NBA rosters. And Mike Krzyzewski's final Duke team will add to that total with three surefire 2022 first-round picks (Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin and Mark Williams) and two others in the first round conversation (Wendell Moore Jr. and Trevor Keels). All five of these guys average in double figures in Duke's high-octane attack.
Unpredictable
Duke is an extremely physical club as Moore harasses opposing point guards and Williams has the family shot-blocking gene (his older sister Elizabeth was a shot-swatting legend for the Blue Devils and plays in the WNBA). But the Duke bench isn't quite as strong as usual. So, if the whistles go against Williams, Banchero or Moore, Duke could be in danger against an elite team.
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 12
Résumé rating: 11
NCAA seed list: 8
Joey Brackets says...
It's not the storybook ending many were hoping for. Duke comes into the tourney on a complete downer and will be fortunate to reach the second weekend. It says here that either Michigan State or, more likely, Davidson sends the Blue Devils home in what would be Coach K's true finale.
Final field rank: No. 18
No. 15 CSU Fullerton Titans
Predictable
Cal State Fullerton is headed back to the NCAA tournament for only the fourth time in program history after a narrow victory over the conference's top seed Long Beach State in the Big West final. The Titans' last appearance was in 2018, when they lost to Purdue in the first round by 26 points. They want to play their way and get out and run in transition.
Unpredictable
Over the years, teams pulling off NCAA tourney upsets have been able to offset a talent disparity by winning the battle from beyond the arc. The Titans shoot a low number of 3s, which will make their first-round matchup an uphill battle. They are in the 10th percentile in 3-point impact per ImpactEvaluator.com.
-- Frank Dehel
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 63
Résumé rating: 63
NCAA seed list: 62
Joey Brackets says...
If head coach Dedrique Taylor's shooters can't find a way to win the battle from beyond the arc, it's hard to imagine the Titans having a chance against the Blue Devils. Cal State Fullerton loses in the first round.
Final field rank: No. 60
No. 1 Baylor Bears
Predictable
Baylor has a chance to become the first back-to-back national champion since Florida in 2006 and 2007 primarily because of its depth. Even without Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (8.4 PPG), who is out for the year with a knee injury, the Bears still have six players averaging 8.7 points per game. The Bears are ninth in the country in scoring margin (13.4 PPG).
Unpredictable
Can Baylor overcome the injuries? Tchamwa Tchatchoua is the leading rebounder for the Bears (6.7 per game). Guard LJ Cryer has played once since Jan. 25, but he's been listed as day-to-day recently. He didn't play in Baylor's loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Conference quarterfinals, but the additional rest may allow him to return.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 3
Résumé rating: 3
NCAA seed list: 4
Joey Brackets says...
Baylor lost its opening game in last year's Big 12 tournament, but I would say it rebounded from that loss pretty well, claiming the program's first national championship with an impressive win over Gonzaga in the championship game. Whether the Bears can get back to the title game, or even advance to the second weekend, depends on matchups. And which North Carolina shows up.
Final field rank: No. 17
No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans
Predictable
Norfolk State ended the season with the most efficient numbers in the MEAC on both ends of the floor, but the Spartans make their name on the defensive side of the ball. Norfolk State ranked in the top 50 nationally in both 2-point and 3-point percentage allowed. The Spartans swarm to deny any good look at the basket.
Unpredictable
Against quality competition, Norfolk State won't have the answers offensively. The Spartans tend to be turnover-prone or stagnant on their end of the floor. In their only game against a Power 5 opponent, Norfolk State scored 0.62 points per possession, shot 3-23 from 3-point land and committed 12 turnovers in a 40-point loss to NIT-bound Xavier.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 64
Résumé rating: 58
NCAA seed list: 64
Joey Brackets says...
Consecutive NCAA tournament trips for the Spartans is a big deal after reaching the Big Dance just once previously this century. Last year, Norfolk State was sent to Dayton, Ohio, where the Spartans beat Appalachian State. This year, they'll head right to the Round of 64, but be swiftly sent home by the defending champions.
Final field rank: No. 62
No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels
Predictable
After a lengthy stay on the NCAA tournament bubble, North Carolina awoke and went 11-2 in its final 13 regular season games. North Carolina features one of the nation's best bigs in 6-10 Armando Bacot, just the ninth player to lead the ACC in field goal percentage and rebounding in the same season. Bacot is one of four double-figure scorers in UNC's starting five.
Unpredictable
North Carolina has been a volatile stock this winter. When guard Caleb Love and bearded stretch four Brady Manek are swishing perimeter shots, Bacot has room to bully opposing pivots in the paint and UNC can beat anyone (e.g., Duke at Cameron). When the outside aim isn't true, quality teams beat the Heels (2-7 mark in Quadrant 1 regular season games).
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 25
Résumé rating: 24
NCAA seed list: 30
Joey Brackets says...
Slowing down Bacot is job one, but UNC has three players with more than 50 made 3-balls for just the fourth time in school history in Manek and Love, along with R.J. Davis. If the Tar Heels drain a healthy dose of 3s, a second-round upset of Baylor isn't just possible, but probable. I like the Tar Heels into the Elite Eight.
Final field rank: No. 8
No. 9 Marquette Golden Eagles
Predictable
In his first year in Milwaukee, Shaka Smart has the Golden Eagles playing fast in both directions. Offensively, Marquette is averaging the fifth-shortest possession time in the nation, looking for shots quickly in transition. When Marquette doesn't score, the Golden Eagles ignore offensive rebounds and quickly transition to setting up a stout defense, which led the Big East in 3-point percentage allowed and steal rate.
Unpredictable
At times, the Marquette offense gets too enamored with jump shots. The Golden Eagles scored a higher percentage of their points on 3s than any other Big East team and had the lowest free throw rate in the conference. With scorers like Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell who can win in isolation, that is a troubling trend.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 42
Résumé rating: 41
NCAA seed list: 35
Joey Brackets says...
Shaka Smart is hungering for some March success. His teams haven't won an NCAA tournament game since he was at VCU all the way back in 2013, a span that includes his entire tenure at Texas. Marquette fans should probably consider a tournament bid this year a success in itself, with the Golden Eagles likely to continue their coach's postseason drought.
Final field rank: No. 43
No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels
Predictable
Saint Mary's has always played a slow tempo, but the 2022 version of the Gaels wants to efficiently grind down their opponents. Randy Bennett has his team playing suffocating defense, ranking in the top 10 nationally in allowing 3-point attempts, assists and offensive rebounds. Opponents only get so many shots at the rim, and Saint Mary's will make you work tooth and nail to find a good one.
Unpredictable
The Gaels are one of the most patient teams in college basketball, using every second of the shot clock on most possessions. While that affects the tempo of the game, it doesn't always lead to the best shot for the Gaels. At times, after draining the shot clock, Saint Mary's is left settling for a shot instead of getting the best look possible.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 20
Résumé rating: 18
NCAA seed list: 19
Joey Brackets says...
This may be the best team in Saint Mary's history. To claim that mantle, these Gaels have to win in the tournament and threaten the Sweet 16. It can happen, too, especially against a short-prep opponent in the first round and UCLA likely in the second. I expect the Gaels to come see me personally in Philadelphia.
Final field rank: No. 13
No. 12 (First Four) Wyoming Cowboys
Predictable
Wyoming's brand of "bully ball" under second year head coach Jeff Linder saw the program win 25 games and head to the Dance for the first time in almost a decade. The Cowboys boast one of the longest teams in the country and run their offense through the post in the form of dominant big man Graham Ike.
Unpredictable
Shortly after cracking the top 25, the Pokes faltered down the stretch, dropping four of their final seven regular season games. Opponents forced players not named Ike and all-MWC guard Hunter Maldonado to beat them and it worked. Wyoming's reliance on the free throw line suggests it has to get back there in order to put together a memorable March.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 52
Résumé rating: 40
NCAA seed list: 43
Joey Brackets says...
Wyoming's length will cause problems and Maldonado is the best player you've probably never heard of. The Cowboys are too good to sneak up on someone, but there are enough ingredients here to cook up the mini-upset of Indiana at the First Four. Saint Mary's on short rest is another story.
Final field rank: No. 46
No. 12 (First Four) Indiana Hoosiers
Predictable
In former Hoosier great Mike Woodson's first season, Indiana sprinted out to a 16-5 start, then lost seven of its last nine in the regular season before punching its Big Dance ticket with Big Ten tournament wins over Michigan and Illinois. Indiana's strengths are airtight D, the inside tag-team tandem of Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson and the emerging leadership of Xavier Johnson.
Unpredictable
Kirkwood Avenue will be buzzing this week with Indiana back in the NCAAs for the first time since 2016. The Hoosiers figure to have early-game jitters in this all-new environment. While the additions of transfers Parker Stewart, Miller Kopp and Johnson have helped, IU was still ninth in the Big Ten in 3-point shooting (somewhere ex-Indiana sharpshooter Steve Alford weeps).
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 32
Résumé rating: 49
NCAA seed list: 45
Joey Brackets says...
Indiana's candy-cane-colored warm-up pants used to be as synonymous with March Madness as 5-12 upsets. But some of these Hoosiers were middle schoolers the last time IU appeared in the Big Dance in 2016. If Jackson-Davis, an outstanding lefty inside performer, and Johnson, IU's fearless floor general, continue last week's Big Ten tourney brilliance, Indiana can win in Dayton and beyond. But color me skeptical.
Final field rank: No. 65
No. 4 UCLA Bruins
Predictable
Mick Cronin and the Bruins continued their winning ways this season following the program's first Final Four appearance in 13 years, finishing as the Pac-12 regular season and tournament runner-up. In an era where players switch schools like the Kardashians change boyfriends, Cronin's core has stayed together and positioned itself for another deep run.
Unpredictable
Stellar Bruins guard Johnny Juzang sprained his ankle in a late February loss at Oregon and has had an up and down past few weeks. Juzang's draft stock vaulted after a massive March, but the first team All-Pac-12 selection remains UCLA's biggest enigma. His consistency is the biggest question mark in Westwood when it comes to replicating last year's tournament success.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 9
Résumé rating: 14
NCAA seed list: 13
Joey Brackets says
The Bruins have one of college basketball's biggest targets on their back and one wonders if they can continue to manage the hype that they have dealt with all season. UCLA runs into trouble in the second round against a lying-in-wait Saint Mary's team that has wanted to face the Bruins forever.
Final field rank: No. 19
No. 13 Akron Zips
Predictable
Akron is in the NCAAs after a 75-55 win over backyard rival Kent State in the MAC tournament title game. Sophomore Enrique Freeman, the MAC tournament MVP, powered the Zips to the conference title with 23 points. Kent State had four players suspended for at least part of the tourney final for posting an offensive Snapchat video.
Unpredictable
The incredible rise of 6-7 sophomore Enrique Freeman from one-time Akron walk-on to Zips star couldn't have been predicted. Freeman was one of 13 Division I players to average a double-double this season. To win an NCAA tournament game, Freeman and Akron's other skinny-but-skilled starting forward Ali Ali must hold up on the glass.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 56
Résumé rating: 56
NCAA seed list: 54
Joey Brackets says...
Akron enters the NCAAs on an eight-game winning streak. The Zips lack a Power 5-sized big, so Akron coach John Groce will need an everyone-on-the-glass mentality from his gritty squad. With four sophomore starters, this NCAA tourney trip should be only the beginning of a nice run of Akron basketball. But this year's stay at the Big Dance will be brief.
Final field rank: No. 53
No. 6 Texas Longhorns
Predictable
Texas is long and athletic, with plenty of depth. The Longhorns play stifling defense, with the sixth-best scoring defense in Division I at 59.5 points per game. They hold opponents to 41.2% from the field. Coach Chris Beard used the transfer portal to great advantage, bringing in players with a lot of postseason experience, combined with experienced holdovers.
Unpredictable
How confident are the Longhorns heading into the NCAA tournament? They've lost three straight games, including blowing an 18-point halftime lead in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament against TCU. They got out-toughed by the Frogs. Texas also doesn't shoot particularly well. It ranks 171st In Division I at 44.3%.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 16
Résumé rating: 29
NCAA seed list: 23
Joey Brackets says...
Much was expected of Chris Beard's team in his first season on the 40 Acres. The Longhorns were ranked No. 5 in both preseason polls. But the adjustment to Beard has not been perfectly smooth. Although all but two of the Longhorn's losses were to ranked teams, they've been inconsistent at times. Their field goal shooting can and will come back to haunt them against red-hot Virginia Tech.
Final field rank: No. 35
No. 11 Virginia Tech Hokies
Predictable
Virginia Tech is led by underrated X-and-O maestro Mike Young, a guy who grew up 15 minutes from Virginia Tech's campus and went to Tech games as a kid with his dad. An older team, Tech runs exquisite sets, striking a balance between Keve Aluma and Justyn Mutts scoring inside and unleashing the nation's No. 4-ranked 3-point shooting attack.
Unpredictable
Everything about the Hokies' season has been unpredictable. Virginia Tech started 2-7 in ACC play and looked lost. But the gritty Hokies turned things around, closing the season with a 13-2 run in its final 15 games, including four ACC tourney wins in four days over Clemson, Notre Dame, North Carolina and Duke to punch their NCAA tournament ticket.
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 23
Résumé rating: 45
NCAA seed list: 46
Joey Brackets says...
Virginia Tech enters the Big Dance on an incredible roll and possesses the ingredients to make a nice little run: elite coaching, killer D (62 PPG allowed), an experienced starting five (three fifth-year seniors and two juniors) and a deep collection of reliable long-range bombers. It wouldn't be shocking to see this once-left-for-dead ACC team in the Sweet 16.
Final field rank: No. 31
No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers
Predictable
Led by future NBA lottery pick Jaden Ivey and big men Zach Edey and Trevion Williams, Matt Painter's Boilermakers resemble an NBA team in the layup lines. While that troika are the headliners, Purdue has five other guys who don't need Waze to locate the hoop in Sasha Stefanovic, Mason Gillis, Eric Hunter Jr., Brandon Newman and Isaiah Thompson.
Unpredictable
Opponents try two things to deal with Purdue's jumbo-sized bigs Edey and Williams. First, they rev up the tempo because Purdue lacks a traditional point guard and scoring is easier if you beat Purdue's two big men down the floor. Second, they put Edey and Williams in high-ball screens and look to dribble-penetrate. Defending on-ball screens is Purdue's Achilles' heel.
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 10
Résumé rating: 7
NCAA seed list: 11
Joey Brackets says...
Purdue averaged over 80 PPG in the rough-and-tumble Big Ten. It has a megawatt star (Ivey), the most popular Canadian import on Purdue's campus since Molson (Edey), an elite passer out of the post (Williams) and plenty of additional firepower. But teams with adjusted defensive efficiency numbers like Purdue's don't capture national titles. Can the Boilers buck the trend? A bad draw against Virginia Tech says no.
Final field rank: No. 11
No. 14 Yale Bulldogs
Predictable
Yale is aggressive on the offensive end of the floor. The Bulldogs led the Ivy League in both free throw rate and offensive rebound rate, thanks to a constant barrage of bodies crashing into the paint. Sag too much and Yale's leading scorer Azar Swain will bury jumpers. He's one of the best shot-makers in this tournament.
Unpredictable
Yale's bid for an upset win is made tougher by how little the Bulldogs utilize the 3-point shot. Yale took 3s at the lowest rate in the Ivy League and made the fewest long balls in the conference. On the season, the Bulldogs are shooting under 33% from long range, making offense a slog at times.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 62
Résumé rating: 60
NCAA seed list: 56
Joey Brackets says...
The Ivy League's representative in the NCAA tournament has been feisty in recent seasons. The conference has five upset victories since 2010, with a few more close calls. Yale has the talent and experience to challenge for a first-round win, but the Bulldogs' lack of outside shooting will leave them just short once again, reminiscent of their close loss to LSU in 2019.
Final field rank: No. 55
No. 7 Murray State Racers
Predictable
Murray State returns to March Madness for the third time in five years under coach Matt McMahon, riding a 20-game winning streak, equipped with a dynamic backcourt and a versatile post player and ranked in the top 40 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They attempted 149 more field goals than their opponents and shot 157 more free throws.
Unpredictable
Late in a tight game, free throw accuracy could be a problem. The Racers shot just 69.8% at the line this season and were fortunate their opponents hit only 67.6%. Frontcourt foul trouble could also be an issue. Other than one blowout victory, center KJ Williams played at least 32 minutes in Murray State's past seven games.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 36
Résumé rating: 28
NCAA seed list: 26
Joey Brackets says...
Don't be surprised if another special season at Murray State includes advancing in the NCAA tournament. But the dream matchup against Kentucky may not even come to pass after a very possible loss to San Francisco in Round 1.
Final field rank: No. 38
No. 10 San Francisco Dons
Predictable
In just his third year as a head coach, San Francisco's Todd Golden's modern brand of basketball has yielded an NCAA Tournament berth. His team is built to shoot 3s on one end and prevent them on the other. The Dons' defense aggressively closes out, allowing the lowest 3-point percentage in the WCC and the third-lowest percentage of opponents' points from long range in the nation.
Unpredictable
The Dons' frontline is currently a major question mark. After starting San Francisco's first 31 games, Yauhen Massalski was held out of the WCC tournament semifinal versus Gonzaga with an injury and was sorely missed. He's responsible for the bulk of San Francisco's success in the paint and on the glass. Without Massalski in the lineup, the Dons' prospects for tournament success diminish.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 29
Résumé rating: 39
NCAA seed list: 37
Joey Brackets says...
This is San Francisco's first at-large bid since the field expanded to 64 teams. Because of their love of the 3-point shot, the Dons are one of the highest variance teams in the tournament. In this bracket, their long-range shooting prowess will spark a first-round win before the Dons lack of size sends them home against Kentucky.
Final field rank: No. 27
No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats
Predictable
Kentucky has lost in the Elite Eight twice since its last Final Four appearance in 2015 but this is John Calipari's most experienced and balanced team in recent seasons, possessing the tenacity and firepower to reach the tournament's final weekend for the 18th time in program history. Oscar Tshiebwe, a Wooden Award candidate, is the best big man in the field.
Unpredictable
The Wildcats enter the field as one of only six teams to rank top 30 in adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency, which has been a commonality among national champions over the past two decades. Accuracy from 3-point range (349th in percentage of points produced on 3s) is the glaring weakness and a 2-for-20 effort against Tennessee led to a loss in the SEC semifinals.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 4
Résumé rating: 9
NCAA seed list: 6
Joey Brackets says...
Big Blue Nation always believes a Final Four is attainable and this season those dreams should become reality. Sahvir Wheeler and Kellan Grady provide the veteran presence missing from Calipari's recent one-and-done laden rosters, while TyTy Washington Jr. is a dynamic scorer on the perimeter. Go ahead and make reservations; the Wildcats are bound for New Orleans.
Final field rank: No. 3
No. 15 Saint Peter's Peacocks
Predictable
The Peacocks' hallmark in their four years under Shaheen Holloway has been intense defense. They limited their opponents to the tune of the 20th-best scoring D in D-I, led by MAAC Defensive Player of the Year KC Ndefo. The MAAC tournament champs enter the Big Dance for the first time since 2011, having ripped off seven straight wins and holding five of those foes under 60 points.
Unpredictable
St. Peter's defensive identity also gets it in trouble at times. The Peacocks foul at one of the highest rates in the country and will get exploited by a penetrating backcourt. In a pair of losses to MAAC preseason favorite Iona, Holloway's squad allowed an average of 28 free throw attempts per game.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 55
Résumé rating: 59
NCAA seed list: 60
Joey Brackets says
Saint Peter's won a deeper and more talented Metro Atlantic than we've seen in a few years, but its road ends here. The Peacocks will have a tough time keeping Kentucky off the foul line and will be back in Jersey City before you can say Tony Soprano.
Final field rank: No. 58
No. 1 Arizona Wildcats
Predictable
"Institutional control" has returned to Tucson in a big way under first-year head coach Tommy Lloyd. Mark Few's longtime top assistant inherited one of the youngest but most talented programs in Division I. The Wildcats used their quick tempo to sweep the Pac-12 regular season and tournament titles, fueled by Pac-12 Player of the Year and future NBA lottery pick Bennedict Mathurin.
Unpredictable
A sprained ankle for point guard Kerr Kriisa in the Pac-12 quarterfinals put the Wildcats' depth under the microscope. Only two players in Arizona's rotation have NCAA tourney experience, raising questions about whether the youthful Wildcats will squeeze it a little harder when the lights shine brightest.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 2
Résumé rating: 2
NCAA seed list: 2
Joey Brackets says
The combination of Mathurin, Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Christian Koloko and a pair of 7-footers feels like a pretty good start for a deep run in the tourney for Lloyd's squad. Arizona gets to the second weekend but is too young to realize its full potential just yet. The Wildcats fall short in the regionals, where the moment proves just a tad too big.
Final field rank: No. 9
No. 16 (First Four) Wright State Raiders
Predictable
Wright State overcame a 2-7 start to the season and then a 16-point second half deficit in the Horizon League title game to earn a Big Dance invitation. The Raiders feature three double-digit scorers in Tanner Holden, Grant Basile and Trey Calvin. Holden is one of the top-25 scorers in the land, while Basile is a nightly double-double threat.
Unpredictable
Wright State's depth could be an issue. Head coach Scott Nagy has four starters that all log over 32 minutes per contest, including double-figure scorers Holden, Basile and Calvin and underrated glue guy Tim Finke. If one of the Raiders' three scoring aces gets into serious foul difficulty, Wright State will be packing away its uniforms.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 65
Résumé rating: 66
NCAA seed list: 65
Joey Brackets says...
Wright State, named for aviation pioneers Orville and Wilbur Wright, hopes its high-octane offense (75.5 PPG) will allow the team to take flight in the NCAA tournament. The problem? The Raiders aren't a lockdown defensive team (71.1 PPG allowed). So they must outscore foes, possible in a semi-home game against Bryant in the First Four, but no way against higher-flying Arizona after that.
Final field rank: No. 63
No. 16 (First Four) Bryant Bulldogs
Predictable
Bryant is dancing for the first time in school history, thanks to an all-star duo. Peter Kiss is the nation's leading scorer: Kiss notched 28.2 points per game in conference play and lives at the free throw line thanks to his quick first step. He's joined by Charles Pride, a junior guard who does everything for the Bulldogs, posting 18.0 points, 8.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game this season.
Unpredictable
Bryant's defense has some holes. The Bulldogs spend most possessions in a zone, varying it as the game ebbs and flows. In conference play, Bryant survived thanks to poor shooting by opponents -- 29.9% from 3-point land. Against better competition, that didn't hold up. Bryant's two best opponents (Houston and Clemson) averaged 102 points per game against the Bulldogs.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 66
Résumé rating: 64
NCAA seed list: 66
Joey Brackets says...
Bryant fans are going to be ecstatic to see their program in the Big Dance for the first time. With Kiss and Pride on the floor, the Bulldogs are sure to make some memories early on, but can they keep up with Wright State -- in Dayton -- for 40 minutes?
Final field rank: No. 67
No. 9 Seton Hall Pirates
Predictable
The Seton Hall defense makes life difficult for every opponent. Kadary Richmond is one of the best perimeter defenders in college basketball and the Pirates' back line of Ike Obiagu and Tyrese Samuel is one of the best rim-protecting duos in the nation. The Pirates finished top 20 nationally in block rate and effective field goal rate allowed.
Unpredictable
Seton Hall's offense is stagnant. The Pirates playmakers spend a lot of time taking turns trying to win off the dribble-drive, with little vision for open teammates. Seton Hall ranked in the bottom 10 in the nation in percentage of field goals coming via an assist. That offensive strategy has looked even worse since losing Bryce Aiken, the Pirates' best isolation scorer, to injury.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 33
Résumé rating: 33
NCAA seed list: 32
Joey Brackets says...
Seton Hall did enough to earn an NCAA tournament bid, but hasn't looked like a team that can win in March. In eight games against the top four teams in the Big East, Seton Hall finished just 1-7, with the lone win coming at home in overtime against UConn. That doesn't inspire confidence that the Pirates can advance against super-tested TCU.
Final field rank: No. 41
No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs
Predictable
TCU has solid players, as the Horned Frogs proved with two matchups in three days against Kansas. The Frogs won the first game in Fort Worth and then narrowly lost at Lawrence two days later. The key for the Horned Frogs is that they will crash the boards, especially on the offensive end. They are tied for ninth in Division I in offensive rebounds at 13.0 per game.
Unpredictable
Can the Horned Frogs find their touch from long range? They ranked 326th in Division I with just over 30% from 3-point range. They also struggle from the free throw line, ranking an even 300th. This could be problematic given their physical style and propensity to create contact inside.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 37
Résumé rating: 32
NCAA seed list: 34
Joey Brackets says...
Styles make fights, which means that TCU could cause trouble for teams that lack physical skills. But the Horned Frogs' shooting woes will make it tough for them to erase a big deficit. I don't see them pulling the Arizona upset, even after knocking off Seton Hall.
Final field rank: No. 26
No. 5 Houston Cougars
Predictable
The Cougars suffered two devastating losses early in the season when point guard Marcus Sasser and wing Tramon Mark were lost to season-ending injuries. But Kelvin Sampson has patched together a solid, if not spectacular, roster that still boasts four double-figure scorers and another with 9.4 PPG. The Cougars' solid defense (58.9 points allowed per game) helped them reach fourth in scoring margin in Division I.
Unpredictable
Depth could be a problem, as the leading scorer after the top five averages just over 3 points per game. If any of their top five scorers gets into foul trouble, the Cougars could be up against it. They don't shoot well from 3-point range, hitting just 34.2%, 161st in the country.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 5
Résumé rating: 15
NCAA seed list: 18
Joey Brackets says...
The grind of the tournament will make it tough for teams without a lot of depth. The undermanned and overachieving Cougars will probably beat UAB, but not loaded and angry Illinois.
Final field rank: No. 21
No. 12 UAB Blazers
Predictable
In his second season as coach, Andy Kennedy guided his alma mater to the Conference USA championship and the program's first NCAA tournament appearance since 2015. The Blazers relied on a top-30 offense and an aggressive defense to win a school record 27 games. Jordan "Jelly" Walker swished 113 3-pointers vs. D-I teams, and he can fill it up in a hurry.
Unpredictable
The Blazers are balanced beyond Walker. They have three other players averaging double-figure scoring. But he's their primary playmaker, assisting on 31% of UAB's field goals. The Blazers were beat up on the backboard at times (145th in defensive rebounding percentage). Keeping the 7-foot center Trey Jemison out of foul trouble is also imperative.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 40
Résumé rating: 51
NCAA seed list: 48
Joey Brackets says...
UAB is a dangerous outfit for a higher-seeded opponent. Walker could be one of the stars of March a week from now. Jemison and Ole Miss transfer KJ Buffen provide an ample interior presence to battle around the baseline. And the Blazers are explosive beyond the arc, hitting 10 or more in 14 games. Andy Kennedy can also win most coaching matchups, but not against Kelvin Sampson and Houston.
Final field rank: No. 48
No. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini
Predictable
The Illinois roster features players with NCAA tournament experience in Kofi Cockburn, Trent Frazier, Da'Monte Williams and Andre Curbelo. If you devote too much manpower to stopping in-the-paint handful Cockburn and the other vets, then coach Brad Underwood has perimeter shooters to make you pay in Utah transfer Alfonso Plummer, senior Jacob Grandison and freshmen RJ Melendez and Luke Goode.
Unpredictable
Cockburn is one of the toughest players to stop in college hoops. He's the top item on every scouting report and still averaged 21 points and over 10 boards per game. But the Illini Superman has a kryptonite: free throw shooting (65.1%). In a close NCAA tournament game, look for teams to employ a Hack-a-Kofi strategy.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 15
Résumé rating: 17
NCAA seed list: 14
Joey Brackets says...
Pencil the Illini into the second weekend. At least. The 2022 Illini are better than last year's No. 1 seed that drubbed Drexel in Round 1 and then was shocked by Sister Jean's favorite team, Loyola Chicago. This team is much deeper, possesses two pro prospects in Cockburn and Plummer, and has much better 3-point shooting than last year's model. Elite Eight to me, including a revenge win over Arizona.
Final field rank: No. 7
No. 13 Chattanooga Mocs
Predictable
Chattanooga needed a buzzer-beating miracle from David Jean-Baptiste to win the Southern Conference championship and return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2016. The Mocs feature gifted guard Malachi Smith and former 5-star center Silvio De Sousa, a Kansas transfer. Their 2-point proficiency and rebounding prowess make the Mocs a dangerous team in March.
Unpredictable
The Mocs struggled to create points off their defense or at the free throw line and their 3-point production declined -- until their late prayer was answered -- in the Southern Conference tournament. Scoring droughts can occur when the perimeter shots aren't falling. They'll also have to prove they can deny an opponent's scoring opportunities around the rim.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 50
Résumé rating: 48
NCAA seed list: 51
Joey Brackets says...
Chattanooga's blend of experience, poised guard play and post scoring creates a formula capable of winning in the tournament. De Sousa will demand attention in the paint while Smith and Jean-Baptiste have delivered late in close games throughout their career. But Illinois is a matchup nightmare and a major step up in class.
Final field rank: No. 51
No. 6 Colorado State Rams
Predictable
Fueled by a Selection Sunday snub a year ago, Colorado State left no doubt in 2021-22. The Rams used the same cast of characters, spearheaded by Mountain West Player of the Year and matchup nightmare David Roddy, to morph into a top-25 offense and garner a 14-4 conference record, behind only Boise State.
Unpredictable
A pair of head-scratching, blowout losses to UNLV saw the Rams settle for perimeter shots and fail to consistently get into the lane. The Rams are 304th in the country in average height and struggled with the Runnin' Rebels length, suggesting that problem could reappear in the Big Dance against a longer opponent.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 41
Résumé rating: 19
NCAA seed list: 24
Joey Brackets says...
Colorado State used the bad taste of last season's NIT trip as fuel to ignite an already raging competitive fire. Between Roddy and savvy all-conference guard Isaiah Stevens, the Rams have a pair of scouting report nightmares. But does CSU have enough size to contend with Hunter Dickinson and Michigan? I think not.
Final field rank: No. 36
No. 11 Michigan Wolverines
Predictable
Michigan survived "Slapgate" in Madison and questions about its NCAA tournament worthiness to land a Big Dance invite, thanks both to Phil Martelli's stellar pinch-hitting during Juwan Howard's suspension and because it owns five Quadrant 1 wins. Now in Bracketville, Michigan has one of the best centers in the college game (Dickinson) and a supporting cast with three other double-digit scorers.
Unpredictable
The Wolverines played a mostly cupcake-free schedule (15 of 31 games against Quadrant 1 teams) and, as a result, they were an up-and-down squad that resided on the NCAA tournament bubble for weeks. Foes set up a wall of defenders around Dickinson and dared Michigan's perimeter shooters to bury enough shots to beat them, a strategy that often works.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 30
Résumé rating: 43
NCAA seed list: 42
Joey Brackets says...
After some Selection Sunday sweaty palms, Michigan earned a spot in Bracketville. To make a Sweet 16 run, grad transfer DeVante' Jones and gifted youngsters Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate must be steady enough to give proven March commodities (Eli Brooks and Dickinson) the support they need. Can they? Sure. Will they? Maybe for a round.
Final field rank: No. 30
No. 3 Tennessee Volunteers
Predictable
After winning the SEC tournament title for the first time since 1979, Tennessee enters the tournament confident it can erase recent NCAA tournament disappointment with a deep run. The Vols feature an elite defense (No. 3 in adjusted efficiency) while dynamic playmaking guard Kennedy Chandler engineers a veteran crew on the offensive end.
Unpredictable
Shooting slumps have sent Tennessee home in the past and this team often struggled in that area, ranking 246th in 2-point shooting, 61st in 3-point shooting and 190th at the free throw line. Tennessee's seven worst offensive outputs occurred against top-25 KenPom teams, and it lost six of those games.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 7
Résumé rating: 4
NCAA seed list: 10
Joey Brackets says...
The arrival of the freshman Chandler gives this Tennessee unit the ability to score late in the shot clock when the offense bogs down. Rick Barnes has a 24-25 career record coaching in the NCAA tourney and only one Final Four appearance. The Vols are perfectly capable of doubling that number this year, provided the SEC tourney version of the Vols shows up in a loaded South Region.
Final field rank: No. 4
No. 14 Longwood Lancers
Predictable
Longwood coach Griff Aldrich, a former corporate attorney, is one of the best stories in the NCAA tournament and was an assistant at UMBC when it shocked No. 1 Virginia in the 2018 tourney. He understands the anatomy of an upset and his perimeter trio of Justin Hill, DeShaun Wade and Isaiah Wilkins fuel a top-10 3-point shooting attack (38.6%).
Unpredictable
Like most Big South champions, the Lancers are undersized in the frontcourt and their lack of height and bulk enabled opponents to make 53.6% of their 2-point shots. This isn't just the program's first taste of March Madness -- this was the first season Longwood finished with a winning conference record.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 60
Résumé rating: 55
NCAA seed list: 55
Joey Brackets says...
Setting a school record for victories, winning 18 of 19 games against Big South opponents and dethroning two-time defending conference champion Winthrop, has already created a historic, storybook season in tiny Farmville, Virginia. The Lancers would be wise to enjoy the pre-tournament attention because the unprecedented ride will end in the opening round.
Final field rank: No. 54
No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes
Predictable
Chris Holtmann's club features an efficient offense, a dogged defense and two tough covers in first-team All-Big Ten big E.J. Liddell, who can take opposing bigs away from the hoop and beat them off the dribble, and smooth-as-silk freshman wing Malaki Branham, the 2022 Big Ten Freshmen of the Year from LeBron James' alma mater St. Vincent-St. Mary in Akron.
Unpredictable
Chris Holtmann-coached teams have struggled in March and it happened again in last week's upset loss to Penn State in the 2022 Big Ten tournament. As the head coach for 28 career conference/NCAA tournament games, Holtmann's record is 11-17. In 11 seasons as a head coach, Holtmann has made it past the second round of the NCAA tournament just once.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 24
Résumé rating: 35
NCAA seed list: 28
Joey Brackets says...
Ohio State has an undersized frontcourt, but its guys proved tough enough in the rough-and-tumble Big Ten. Still, defending NBA-sized centers keeps Holtmann up at nights, as does his team's propensity for coming up small in March. His team enters the Big Dance on a two-game losing streak. Can the Buckeyes put the March sadness narrative to bed? Nope.
Final field rank: No. 40
No. 10 Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Predictable
The Ramblers will play defense. Drew Valentine, the youngest head coach in Division I at age 30, has continued Loyola's defensive focus, as the Ramblers rank 19th with 61.8 PPG allowed. They were even better in the Missouri Valley tournament, allowing 50.3 PPG to qualify for the NCAA tournament for a second consecutive season, the first time that has happened since Sister Jean was in her early 40s.
Unpredictable
Can the Ramblers score enough? They rank tied for 111th in scoring in Division I heading into the tournament. They don't have a go-to guy in the clutch, with their leading scorer being Lucas Williamson at 13.9 PPG. Instead, they rely on balance, with five other players averaging between 10.3 and 7.9 PPG. They also don't dominate the glass, with the 97th-ranked rebounding margin (2.9 per game).
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 27
Résumé rating: 42
NCAA seed list: 29
Joey Brackets says...
The Ramblers would have been right on the bubble for an at-large berth if they had lost in the MVC tournament. Instead the Fighting Sister Jeans will be their usual tough draw against -- and beat -- Ohio State. But it's hard to see a second win against incredibly experienced and brilliantly coached Villanova.
Final field rank: No. 29
No. 2 Villanova Wildcats
Predictable
Jay Wright's Wildcats play a slow tempo, but in a modern style. Only 10 teams in the nation scored a lower percentage of their points on 2-point baskets. Villanova led the Big East in 3-point rate and free throws per game. Best of all, when the Wildcats get to the line, they don't disappoint -- Villanova is on pace for the highest team free throw percentage ever.
Unpredictable
Villanova may have the best backcourt in the nation in Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore, but that duo has to make up for the Wildcats' other flaws. Jay Wright's rotation is very small, with only six players averaging more than 11 minutes per game. The Wildcats also lack size. Only Eric Dixon is a legitimate center, with Jermaine Samuels forced to fill every other frontcourt role.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 8
Résumé rating: 8
NCAA seed list: 7
Joey Brackets says...
Villanova was excellent against lesser competition this year, going 19-1 in Quad 2, 3 and 4 games. Against the rigors of Quad 1, however, Villanova was just 7-6. The NCAA tournament does not feature many chances against non-Quad 1 talent. The Wildcats should have the answers this weekend, but when the competition ratchets up in the regionals, their lack of size and depth will doom them.
Final field rank: No. 10
No. 15 Delaware Blue Hens
Predictable
The preseason chatter had the Blue Hens winning the CAA but in slightly easier fashion. Delaware returned all five of its starters and added GW transfer Jameer Nelson Jr., but slipped with three straight losses to close its conference campaign. When dialed in, Martin Inglesby's bunch is one of the most efficient shooting teams in the country and lives large at the foul line.
Unpredictable
A bumpy beginning to March left Delaware looking like a bit of an enigma. The Hens responded by becoming the first 5-seed in the CAA tournament's 39-year history to win the title. They did it with solid defense just 12 days after giving up 99 points to Charleston. Consistency at both ends of the floor remains the biggest question mark in their bid for an upset.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 31
Résumé rating: 63
NCAA seed list: 8.5
Joey Brackets says...
The Blue Hens' bounce-back remains a great story, but the slipper doesn't fit. They're an average defensive team at best and their rebounding shortcomings will show against a bigger, more physical opponent in a first-round exit. But I will enjoy watching Jay Wright looking down the sidelines at another Jameer Nelson.
Final field rank: No. 57
No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks
Predictable
The Jayhawks will get plenty of scoring from a four-guard lineup, led by Big 12 Player of the Year Ochai Agbaji. With Remy Martin finally healthy and contributing, their bench gives them seven good options that coach Bill Self can use in various rotations. When they're clicking, they're one of the best teams in the country.
Unpredictable
Self has to be concerned about the lack of quality depth in the middle. David McCormack is serviceable, but he can be moved out of the post too easily. Backup Mitch Lightfoot has found his shooting touch, but if Kansas runs into someone with a dominant center, can it hold up?
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 6
Résumé rating: 1
NCAA seed list: 3
Joey Brackets says...
Kansas certainly has the ability to make a run to the Final Four, in part because it has what I believe is the cleanest path of any No. 1 seed. The Jayhawks have plenty of experience and have the attitude that the regular season was just practice to get them ready for March. I think we'll see them in New Orleans. For two games.
Final field rank: No. 2
No. 16 (First Four) Texas Southern Tigers
Predictable
Led by John Walker III (17 points), Texas Southern crushed Alcorn State 87-62 in the SWAC tournament title game to earn its second straight Big Dance invitation. Coach Johnny Jones substitutes as often as an NHL coach and has 10 different Tigers who average between 4.6 and 9.9 PPG. Walker III, TSU's top scorer, started his career at Texas A&M.
Unpredictable
Like many SWAC teams, Texas Southern scheduled eight straight road games against powerhouse teams for guaranteed paydays to fund the program. Texas Southern started off 0-7 but lost four of those games by single digits -- at Saint Mary's, at Washington, at Air Force and at N.C. State -- before breaking into the win column vs. Florida in Gainesville.
-- Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 67
Résumé rating: 67
NCAA seed list: 67
Joey Brackets says...
Texas Southern won a First Four game last March over Mount St. Mary's before losing to Michigan. TSU's rotation drips with skills, so Jones pushes the tempo to take advantage of his depth. While these Tigers have talent, they struggle mightily from deep (.317 3-pointers), giving them virtually no chance of shocking a No. 1 seed after easing past TAMU-CC in another First Four victory.
Final field rank: No. 64
No. 16 Texas A&M-CC Islanders
Predictable
The Islanders have good depth, which means head coach Steve Lutz can play a lot of lineups. Only one player -- Simeon Fryer -- has started every game, and seven different players have at least 13 starts. They're tough and they rebound well, bringing a 4.5 rebounding margin into their first NCAA Tournament in 15 years.
Unpredictable
Do the Texas A&M-CC players still need nametags at practice? The Islanders had 10 new players this season, the most in Division I. Their relative lack of time together is likely to show up against more experienced teams. Although the Islanders will have nothing to lose, no 16th-seeded team has ever won a play-in game and then knocked off a No. 1 seed.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 68
Résumé rating: 68
NCAA seed list: 68
Joey Brackets says...
Well, somebody has to be No. 68 on the seed list. TAMU-CC made that decision an easy one after coming from back in the pack to capture the Southland Conference tournament. But the Islanders are a considerable underdog, even against No. 67 (Texas Southern).
Final field rank: No. 68
No. 8 San Diego State Aztecs
Predictable
It's hard to believe that Brian Dutcher could take the groundwork laid by his predecessor Steve Fisher and make the Aztecs' defense even better. San Diego State has guarded at a level not seen since Kawhi Leonard played his games in Southern California. Nobody grinds its opponents' possessions quite like the Mountain West tournament runner-up.
Unpredictable
While San Diego State's defense got even better, its offense didn't have quite the same balance it displayed a year ago. The Aztecs ability to guard at an elite level kept them in every game, but their odds for a deep run in March rest largely on Cal transfer Matt Bradley's (17.0 PPG) shoulders.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 26
Résumé rating: 30
NCAA seed list: 31
Joey Brackets says
San Diego State has played tight games all year and that will serve Dutcher's squad well in what's likely a nail-biter in the opening round. The Aztecs will get the defensive stops they need to eke out a win over Creighton before falling to Kansas in Round 2.
Final field rank: No. 25
No. 9 Creighton Bluejays
Predictable
For the first time in Greg McDermott's 12-year tenure as head coach at Creighton, the Bluejays end the season with a better ranked defensive efficiency than offensive efficiency. McDermott molded a team of freshmen, transfers and returning players into the best defense in the Big East. A lot of that is thanks to sophomore 7-footer Ryan Kalkbrenner and his rim protection ability.
Unpredictable
This Creighton team has a major issue with turnovers. The Bluejays ranked 309th nationally in taking care of the ball, posting the highest turnover rate in the Big East. In conference play, Creighton coughed up the ball on more than one-fifth of its offensive possessions. Big East Freshman of the Year Ryan Nembhard's season-ending injury leaves Creighton without a primary ball handler.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 45
Résumé rating: 34
NCAA seed list: 33
Joey Brackets says...
This week comes with a ton of silver linings for the Creighton program. The Bluejays made the NCAA tournament with an exceptionally young team and a premier player sidelined by injury. Any wins the rest of this month would be icing on the cake.
Final field rank: No. 42
No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes
Predictable
The Hawkeyes own one of the most efficient offenses in the field of 68, led by future NBA lottery pick Keegan Murray. A classic three-level scorer, Murray is averaging 23.4 PPG, the highest scoring average of any Power 5 player this season. Iowa's attack features three additional double-digit scorers in Jordan Bohannon, Patrick McCaffery and Kris Murray (Keegan's twin brother).
Unpredictable
Fran McCaffery has won nearly 60% of his games at Iowa. But he has never reached the second weekend of the Big Dance, often because of the program's leaky defense (e.g., Oregon scored 95 points on it in a second-round loss last March). Lesson learned: the Hawkeyes were a respectable fifth in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency this winter.
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 14
Résumé rating: 20
NCAA seed list: 20
Joey Brackets says...
The Hawkeyes opened some eyes with their inspired play during last week's Big Ten tournament and appear to have the proper formula -- an uber-efficient offense, vastly improved defense and rebounding, and a legit superstar in Keegan Murray -- to exorcise some March Madness demons. So why do I have this nagging feeling that a major upset is brewing after beating Richmond?
Final field rank: No. 22
No. 12 Richmond Spiders
Predictable
Few teams in this field have more leadership and experience than the Spiders. NCAA all-time steals leader Jacob Gilyard and 2,000-point scorer Grant Golden played like men possessed over a four-day stretch in Washington D.C., to will the Spiders to their first Atlantic 10 tournament title since 2011.
Unpredictable
It was a disappointing regular season for a team chock full of 1,000-point scorers, finishing sixth in the Atlantic 10 before their torrid run through the conference tourney saved its season. With three days to cool off, the Spiders must not revert to the regular season bad habits that led to defeats to sub-.500 Saint Joseph's and George Mason.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 51
Résumé rating: 52
NCAA seed list: 49
Joey Brackets says
The reality is that this group was supposed to be here once or twice before. Seniors Golden and Gilyard and third-year natural scorer Tyler Burton proved that the suffering was worth the wait for Richmond by winning four games in four days for the Atlantic 10 championship.
Final field rank: No. 49
No. 4 Providence Friars
Predictable
All season long, Providence has been able to rely on big plays from its three veteran leaders. Indiana transfer Al Durham has been so effective slashing to the basket and Nate Watson has anchored the Friars in the paint. The real game-changer has been Jared Bynum, who has elevated his game from a role player to an all-conference performer.
Unpredictable
Providence has needed its big three to respond in big moments, since the Friars have found themselves in an uncommon number of close games. Providence has played 17 games decided by 8 points or fewer, inexplicably winning 15 of those games. The Friars have stumped analytical models with their seemingly unsustainable mix of lucky breaks and clutch play.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 38
Résumé rating: 12
NCAA seed list: 15
Joey Brackets says...
When Providence plays its best basketball, the Friars can compete with and beat just about any team in the country. So often this season, however, Providence has played down to lesser opponents or played sloppy for long stretches of games. It's hard to see that recipe sparking a long run this month. In fact, I think it will bite the Friars against South Dakota State.
Final field rank: No. 34
No. 13 South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Predictable
Be honest, you're here because you need a Cinderella for your office pool? Eric Henderson's Jackrabbits fit the profile. South Dakota State hasn't lost since before Christmas and the Jackrabbits shoot the ball from deep better than anyone in the field of 68 (.449 3-pointers). South Dakota State has topped 90 points in a game 12 different times this season.
Unpredictable
The Jackrabbits have six players who can shoot the 3-ball and, true to the team's nickname, will look to rev up the tempo. But like many grooms-to-be learn at their bachelor party, a shot-every-20-seconds pace can have its downside too. If the long balls aren't dropping, an opponent's running game will be ignited.
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 48
Résumé rating: 44
NCAA seed list: 52
Joey Brackets says...
The Jackrabbits will be a popular pick to bust brackets and with good reason. Their offense, led by nightly double-double threat Douglas Wilson and headband-wearing Summit League Player of the Year Baylor Scheierman, is high octane. But there are serious questions about South Dakota State's ability to defend. So it will just have outscore Providence and Iowa on their way to becoming the tourney's biggest Cinderella.
Final field rank: No. 16
No. 6 LSU Tigers
Predictable
LSU will compete in the NCAA tournament with a new coach after Will Wade was fired Saturday following a lengthy NCAA investigation into multiple Level I allegations. Kevin Nickleberry was named interim coach and hopes to rejuvenate a team that has played .500 basketball since the end of January. The Tigers are an outstanding defensive unit that features disruptive pressure and elite rim protection.
Unpredictable
How does the team respond to a coaching change that was inevitable but arrives at the worst possible time, just two days after an SEC quarterfinal loss to Arkansas? The Tigers shoot poorly from the perimeter and were 4-6 when they failed to score 0.95 points per possession this season. Prolonged scoring droughts often produce early exits in the NCAA tournament.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 18
Résumé rating: 26
NCAA seed list: 22
Joey Brackets says...
Our long national nightmare is over. There was so much promise when Will Wade was hired in 2017 and this, his fourth top-50 KenPom team in five seasons, is a blue-collar group that overachieved. Still, the Tigers are bound for a reboot no matter how far they advance in the tournament. So naturally they'll win a couple of games before falling off the radar for goodness knows how long.
Final field rank: No. 14
No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones
Predictable
The Cyclones will pressure their opponents into making errors. They're 14th in Division I in turnovers forced at 16.7 per game. They need Big 12 Newcomer of the Year Izaiah Brockington to show up. He led the team with 17.5 PPG and shot nearly 40% from 3-point range. Without Brockington, the Cyclones hunt for scoring.
Unpredictable
Where do they turn when Brockington has an off night, like he did against Texas Tech in the Big 12 quarterfinals when he was 3-of-16 from the field? Rebounding can also be an issue for the Cyclones, who are near the bottom of the Big 12 in all rebounding categories. They rank 223rd in Division I in rebounding margin at -0.6.
-- David Smale
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 43
Résumé rating: 37
NCAA seed list: 41
Joey Brackets says...
Coming off a 2-22 season in 2020-21, just getting to the Big Dance is quite an accomplishment for T.J. Otzelberger and his Cyclones. But the fun won't last long. I don't see Iowa State making it past even a disjointed LSU team.
Final field rank: No. 45
No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers
Predictable
Picked to finish 10th in the Big Ten in the preseason poll, Wisconsin won 24 games and earned a share of the regular season title. How did they do it? Star wing Johnny Davis was the nation's most improved player, blossoming from a 7-PPG scorer as a frosh into the 2022 Big Ten Player of the Year as a sophomore.
Unpredictable
Normally a program that plays at the pace of an over-40 league game at your neighborhood YMCA, Wisconsin played at its fastest adjusted offensive tempo in two decades this winter to take full advantage of everybody's All-American Davis. The Big Three of Davis, Brad Davison, and Tyler Wahl is terrific, but this team lacks Wisconsin's usual depth.
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 28
Résumé rating: 10
NCAA seed list: 9
Joey Brackets says...
The NCAA Tournament often features close games, so look for the Badgers -- who boast a 15-3 record in games decided by six points or fewer-to live on the edge. The Sweet 16 is well within reach, and so is a sudden, close loss to Colgate. If and when that happens in Milwaukee, it will be the shock of the first two days.
Final field rank: No. 33
No. 14 Colgate Raiders
Predictable
There may not be a better 3-point shooting team in this tournament than Colgate. The Raiders ranked second in the nation in 3-point percentage behind only South Dakota State, which took over 100 fewer triples this year. Colgate's five most frequent shooters from deep all hit over 36%, including Oliver Lynch-Daniels who was a ridiculous 47-of-87 this season (54%).
Unpredictable
In some games, Colgate really needs to shoot the lights out, thanks to a porous defense. The Raiders lack the skills or versatility to challenge most tournament-level offenses. Only eight teams in the nation allowed more assists per game, a troubling sign for a defense that also struggles to force turnovers.
-- Shane McNichol
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 54
Résumé rating: 65
NCAA seed list: 57
Joey Brackets says...
There are nights when Colgate shoots it well enough to scare any opponent. Ask Jim Boeheim, whose Syracuse team lost to Colgate when the Raiders shot 18-of-43 from long range while racking up 100 points. That kind of display could keep Colgate around deep into the second half of their opening game, when the Raiders' defense will have to find away against Johnny Davis and the homestanding Badgers.
Final field rank: No. 32
No. 7 USC Trojans
Predictable
Andy Enfield may watch Evan Mobley in the NBA nowadays, but his USC squad didn't miss a beat coming off its Elite Eight run. The Trojans brought back only two starters but made Mobley's twin brother Isaiah the focal point of their offense and added smooth Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis. The result was 26 wins, the most for the program in five years.
Unpredictable
The Trojans enter the Big Dance having dropped three of their past four regular-season games and then getting bounced by UCLA in the Pac-12 semifinals. They even turned it over 23 times in their lone win in the Pac-12 tourney, a four-point nail-biter against Washington.
-- Matt Martucci
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 34
Résumé rating: 21
NCAA seed list: 25
Joey Brackets says...
This time of year is all about feel. The recent optics on the Trojans suggest that they're running out of gas. USC could survive a scare against Miami, but the Hurricanes might simply be the better team in their first-round matchup.
Final field rank: No. 37
No. 10 Miami Hurricanes
Predictable
Most 72-year-old men would spend their days scouting top-shelf golf courses or all-you-can-eat buffets to conquer. Not Jim Larranaga, who just signed a two-year contract extension through 2025-26. Why not? Picked to finish 12th in the ACC, the Hurricanes, led by guards Kameron McGusty, Isaiah Wong and Charlie Moore, won 20-plus games and finished fourth in the ACC.
Unpredictable
This is not your grandfather's physical ACC team. Instead, Miami starts four guards (McGusty, Wong, Moore and Jordan Miller) and one stretch four (Sam Waardenburg). On offense, the Hurricanes expertly spread the floor and let their guards operate. But without a true starting center, backboard domination and blocked shots are rare and interior defense is a concern.
--Bill Doherty
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 47
Résumé rating: 38
NCAA seed list: 38
Joey Brackets says...
In addition to Larranaga's X-and-O acumen, the Hurricanes are an older team, and these veterans take care of the ball and willingly do the dirty work needed to be successful. A team with a truly legit big man or two and the guards to keep McGusty, Wong and Moore from going bonkers is the recipe to taming the Hurricanes. And that won't happen until Auburn in Round 2.
Final field rank: No. 28
No. 2 Auburn Tigers
Predictable
Auburn enjoys elite frontcourt size and skills and rode future NBA lottery picks Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith to the SEC regular-season championship. The Tigers force turnovers and make scoring in the lane a chore, blocking 21% of their opponents' shots and limiting teams to 42% on 2-pointers. Bruce Pearl's crew is eyeing a second Final Four trip in four years.
Unpredictable
The Tigers sputtered down the stretch, splitting their past six games and getting bounced from the SEC tournament in the quarterfinals. A shaky backcourt was the culprit. Wendell Green Jr. and K.D. Johnson are undersized, can commit silly turnovers and take inexplicable shots. Auburn failed to score one point per possession in four late-season games vs. tournament caliber competition.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 11
Résumé rating: 5
NCAA seed list: 5
Joey Brackets says...
In late January when the offense was humming, the Tigers seemed like a Final Four lock. Their shoddy guard play down the stretch makes them a prime candidate to get upset early. Still, with six games between the Tigers and a title, don't be surprised if this team resets, values possessions and rediscovers its rhythm on offense. Sweet 16, even the Elite Eight, seems realistic.
Final field rank: No. 5
No. 15 Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Predictable
Jacksonville State lost in the semifinals of the Atlantic Sun tournament but nonetheless received the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament because Bellarmine, ineligible as it transitions to Division I, won the conference tournament. It's not as if the Gamecocks aren't worthy. They won the regular season behind a talented backcourt to reach March Madness for the first time since 2017.
Unpredictable
The Gamecocks' offense can disappear. It scored less than one point per possession in eight of their 10 losses, including the defeat in the ASUN semifinals. Much of the Gamecocks' attack revolves around the 3-point shot, and their 38.2% accuracy beyond the arc makes them dangerous. But poor free throw shooting and suspect ball control limit their chances for an upset bid.
-- Brian Mull
By the numbers
Eye test rank: 57
Résumé rating: 62
NCAA seed list: 61
Joey Brackets says...
Ray Harper is a fine, underrated coach and his teams historically peak this time of the season. The experienced backcourt trio of Darian Adams, Jalen Gibbs and Jalen Finch is enticing as a Cinderella hopeful and the Gamecocks have more height in the rotation than a typical mid-major, but their time in the bracket will be brief.
Final field rank: No. 59