Giant Killers: Complete upset picks for every region in the 2022 March Madness bracket

Giant Killers is back for our 16th annual metrics-based forecast of big upsets in the 2022 men's NCAA tournament. As always, we're analyzing each Giant vs. Killer game in the first round.

(Quick reminder: A Giant Killer is any team that defeats an opponent seeded at least five lines higher in any round.)

Our statistical model yields an upset probability for each game based on both the BPI of each team and on the stylistic factors that have shown the strongest correlations to tournament upsets in the past. Picks are sorted into four categories based on the likelihood of an upset: best bets, worth a long look, not completely ridiculous and, last and in all probability least, stay away.

Hopefully the titles speak for themselves.

Sound good? Now, let's get to the good stuff. Here are the 2022 upsets in the making.

Jump to: East | West | South | Midwest

East Region

Best bets

No. 11 Virginia Tech Hokies vs. No. 6 Texas Longhorns
Upset chance: 49%

Here's the simplest way to look at this game.

Texas' BPI rank: 17

Virginia Tech's BPI rank: 19

BPI is the foundation of our Giant Killers model, so it's no wonder that GK sees this game as hardly a David vs. Goliath situation at all.

Virginia Tech's scorching hot finish, which included a conference tournament-winning run with a victory over Duke, somehow earned the Hokies just an 11-seed, which makes them an almost no-brainer upset selection. What's wild is that BPI does not add extra weight to more recent contests -- which, if anything, sometimes leads to the model being lower on "hot" teams than consensus. Here, it's at least higher than the committee on the Hokies.

Virginia Tech's overwhelming advantage from beyond the arc -- shooting a relatively high 39.3% from 3-point range, per KenPom -- is nice to have, but because the team's not a true underdog, creating variance from 3 isn't as important for its upset chances.

No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels
Upset chance: 46%

A 4-8 finish to the season surely hurt Indiana seedwise, but it's not necessarily indicative of what's to come (and, had a banked 3 from Iowa's Jordan Bohannon not fallen Saturday, Indiana might have played for the Big Ten tournament title Sunday). The Giant Killers model looks at the entire body of work for every team, and indications here are that the gap between these squads is much smaller than their seeds would make it appear.

The strength of both teams here is defense. According to BPI, the Gaels have the edge there and on offense. However, it's a very slim edge at both ends of the court. The same story holds for opponent-adjusted efficiencies: There's a tiny, minute advantage for Saint Mary's at both ends of the floor.

Worth a long look

No. 12 Wyoming Cowboys vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels
Upset chance: 25%

The Cowboys squeaked into the tournament with a play-in at-large bid, but that was surely more about résumé than team quality. Wyoming ranked 53rd in strength of record but 103rd in BPI, the predictive metric. The model estimates a 6.5-point edge for the Gaels in defense alone.

But it's not all bad news for Wyoming here. The Cowboys and Gaels both play with a slower tempo. The fewer possessions, the greater the variance. And variance is an underdog's best friend.

Not completely ridiculous

No. 13 Akron Zips vs. No. 4 UCLA Bruins
Upset chance: 11%

Strengthwise, UCLA is underseeded, and that blocks Akron from having much of a shot at a first-round upset. UCLA is the ninth-best team in the tournament, BPI believes.

There are some reasons to like the Zips, though. Three-pointers make up 42% of their field goal attempts, per KenPom, compared to just 32% for UCLA (both teams are similarly efficient at making those long-range shots). They're also a more efficient team when it comes to 2-point field goals. But that's not enough to close an overwhelming gap driven by defense and other facets of the offense such as ball security and free-throw shooting, where the Bruins are far superior.

Stay away

No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans vs. No. 1 Baylor Bears
Upset chance: 6%

For a matchup involving a defending champion and No. 1 seed, there is a pretty high chance for an upset! But this still isn't a game for Baylor backers to sweat.

No. 15 Saint Peter's Peacocks vs. No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats
Upset chance: 5%

The Wildcats are a No. 1 seed-quality team with a No. 2 in front of their name. Don't think twice here.

No. 14 Yale Bulldogs vs. No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers
Upset chance: 4%

It's one thing to upset Princeton in the Ivy League title game. It's a whole different ballgame to try to beat Purdue. Give the Boilermakers the W in your bracket.

South Region

Best bet

No. 11 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 6 Colorado State Rams
Upset chance: 64%

All season long, David Roddy and Colorado State outperformed opponents thanks in large part to superior 2-point shooting and a near total lack of turnovers. Will that combination work as well against Michigan? The Giant Killers model suspects that it may not.

The Wolverines have a highly efficient 2-point scoring wonder of their own, of course, in Hunter Dickinson. Moreover, the sheer size of Juwan Howard's team could prove challenging for the Rams. With Dickinson and 6-foot-8 freshman Caleb Houstan, Michigan is able to confront opponents with a double dose of size on both sides of the arc.

Not completely ridiculous

No. 13 Chattanooga Mocs vs. No. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini
Upset chance: 15%

Chattanooga won a true road game at VCU and lurked on the fringes of the at-large discussion for the better part of February and March. The Mocs limit opponents to one shot per possession, Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa is coming off a 17-14 double-double and SoCon player of the year Malachi Smith will someday tell his kids about winning the same award as Steph Curry. This team will have the Fighting Illini's full attention.

That being said, the Chattanooga defense doesn't force either misses or turnovers in large numbers. That could make for rough going against Kofi Cockburn and his teammates.

No. 12 UAB Blazers vs. No. 5 Houston Cougars
Upset chance: 14%

The Blazers dropped out of the at-large discussion after losing at home by one to North Texas in February. Since then, however, Andy Kennedy's team has reeled off seven straight wins, including a triple-overtime victory against Middle Tennessee in the Conference USA semifinals.

UAB is nothing if not resilient, but that's kind of Houston's thing as well. The Cougars will throw some tenacious defense at featured scorer Jordan "Jelly" Walker and then turn around and crash the offensive glass. While the Giant Killers model could get behind UAB pulling off a 12-5 upset, this happens to be one tough No. 5 seed.

Stay away

No. 14 Longwood Lancers vs. No. 3 Tennessee Volunteers
Upset chance: 7%

Longwood is 19-1 since late December, thanks in no small part to the deft point guard play of Justin Hill. The Lancers hit their 3s, take very good care of the ball and crash the glass at both ends of the floor. However, facing Tennessee in the round of 64 will mark the first time Longwood has seen a NET top-100 opponent since it lost to Iowa by 33 in its first game of the season.

No. 15 Delaware Blue Hens vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats
Upset chance: 4%

Martin Ingelsby's team dropped its last three regular-season games and finished tied for fourth in the CAA before getting hot at the right time and capturing the league tournament title. Now a defense that ranked No. 7 in conference play will face Jay Wright and his fiendishly efficient offense. The numbers suggest searching for upsets elsewhere.

No. 16 Wright State Raiders or Bryant Bulldogs vs. No. 1 Arizona Wildcats
Upset chance: 3% or less

Wright State reached the field of 68 courtesy of a thrilling Trey Calvin game-winner against Northern Kentucky in the Horizon League final. Bryant dominated NEC foe Wagner in a title game that was never in doubt. Both the Raiders and the Bulldogs have recorded memorable seasons that, alas, will end with one of them in the path of a No. 1 seed that could win the national championship.

West Region

Best bets

No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide
Upset chance: 44%

That sound you heard on Selection Sunday was relief on the Notre Dame campus, as the Fighting Irish got the good news that they were one of the last teams in the field. Now, in the tradition of UCLA in 2021, the Giant Killers model thinks Mike Brey's group may be able to stay a while and do some damage.

First, the Irish will of course have to handle a tough Rutgers team and its very good defense. But if Notre Dame can advance to face Alabama, the numbers give the lower seed almost a 50-50 shot at pulling the upset. Dane Goodwin is a prolific 3-point scorer, Blake Wesley could be a 2022 first-round pick and the Fighting Irish take exceptionally good care of the ball. Doubt the justice of the Irish's selection if you wish, but this group could be a handful for the Crimson Tide.

No. 13 Vermont Catamounts vs. No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks
Upset chance: 36%

Vermont simply buries opponents with made shots. Even making due allowance for the level of competition in an America East dominated by the Catamounts, shooting 60% on your 2s and 41% on your 3s over an entire conference season is something we're used to seeing only from Gonzaga.

Making these same shots against Arkansas will naturally present a new challenge for Ben Shungu, Ryan Davis, Isaiah Powell and their teammates. Still, with the exception of Jaylin Williams, the Razorbacks are one of the smaller major-conference opponents John Becker's somewhat undersized rotation could have drawn. Put it this way, Vermont is one strong No. 13 seed.

Not completely ridiculous

No. 12 New Mexico State Aggies vs. No. 5 UConn Huskies
Upset chance: 16%

It won't be easy for New Mexico State to take down the Huskies. UConn's big three of R.J. Cole, Adama Sanogo and Tyrese Martin combine scoring, size, rebounding and perimeter shooting in one nucleus. But the Aggies are no strangers to the field of 68 or even the No. 12 line themselves.

Chris Jans has been churning out NCAA tournament teams at NMSU for five seasons. There was a dip in performance last year, but now the Aggies are back at their usual strength. Teddy Allen is a prolific scorer, and Will McNair Jr.'s offensive rebounding can pose a problem for opponents. This group can give Danny Hurley's team a game, particularly if Sanogo picks up some early fouls.

Stay away

No. 14 Montana State Bobcats vs. No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Upset chance: 6%

Consider a team that generates points by getting to the free throw line with regularity and then turns around and leads its league in 2-point defense. Meet Montana State -- and also meet Texas Tech. The two teams share some stylistic similarities, and Jubrile Belo has been a model of scoring efficiency in the paint for the Bobcats. Nevertheless, the probabilities favor the taller and deeper Red Raiders in this one.

No. 15 CSU Fullerton Titans vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils
Upset chance: 3%

Having arrived at CSU Fullerton by way of stops at Sacred Heart and Tennessee, E.J. Anosike has averaged an 18-14 double-double over his last three outings. Anosike's team may be overmatched against Duke, but the Blue Devils may at least have their hands full with the 6-foot-7 senior from East Orange, New Jersey.

No. 16 Georgia State Panthers vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Upset chance: 1%

The Panthers made "One Shining Moment" history in the 2015 Round of 64 with an iconic upset over No. 3 seed Baylor. It is called one shining moment, however, and this time around, GSU is facing an overall No. 1 seed in the form of Gonzaga. The Giant should have the upper hand in this one.

Midwest Region

Best bet

No. 13 South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. No. 4 Providence Friars
Upset chance: 40%

The outrageously efficient Jackrabbits, who led the league in unadjusted offensive efficiency and were No. 14 even with opponent adjustments, pose a serious threat to the Friars. Offensively, the Jackrabbits do a lot right: They don't turn the ball over, they hit their free throws and they hold an edge on field goal efficiency in this contest -- from both 2-point and 3-point range. Summit League player of the year Baylor Scheierman leads the way from beyond the arc, having knocked down 75 3s at a 46.6% clip this season, per KenPom. The Jackrabbits are simply the better offensive team.

Of course, the Friars hold a substantial 5.5-point edge on defense that makes them the favorites here. But even with the defensive disadvantage, South Dakota State's offensive edge gives them a mighty strong chance of pulling off a 13-4 upset.

Worth a long look

No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 6 LSU Tigers
Upset chance: 22%

Let's start with what's not considered by the model: LSU's coaching change. Midseason firings like the Tigers dropping Will Wade aren't factored into BPI, so the model has no reaction to how that could affect them.

What it does know is that in this defensive battle of a first-round matchup, the Tigers have the edge. LSU ranked second in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency this season, while Iowa State was just a bit behind at No. 11.

In fact, the Giant Killers model thinks the Cyclones' chances of winning here are slightly less than baseline BPI because of how these teams play on the offensive end. After adjusting for opponent strengths, the Tigers hold the edge in both 2-point and 3-point field goal percentages, free throw percentage and rebounding. Iowa State has a chance, of course, but relative to most other 11-seeds, Giant Killers isn't particularly high on the Cyclones in this spot.

Not completely ridiculous

No. 14 Colgate Raiders vs. No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers
Upset chance: 18%

If Colgate is going to pull off an astonishing 14-3 upset over Wisconsin, its 3-pointers are going to have to fall. They certainly have before: The Raiders have five players on their roster who hit at least 40 3s this season, and had the second-best 3-point percentage in D-I, per KenPom.

It's a longer shot given Colgate's overall team quality disparity to Wisconsin -- the Badgers are far superior on defense -- but there are far worse qualities for an underdog to have than relying on shots from downtown.

No. 12 Richmond Spiders vs. No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes
Upset chance: 15%

This 12-5 matchup features two squads that both secured upset victories Sunday to win their conference tournament titles. Of course, for Richmond the stakes were higher: The win earned the Spiders a berth they would not have had. Can they parlay that into an NCAA tournament victory? The Giant Killers model says ... it's unlikely. Iowa's offense, which ranked second in opponent-adjusted efficiency this season (behind only the team the Hawkeyes beat Sunday, Purdue!) is quite likely too much for the Spiders to overcome.

That Richmond shoots a high rate of 3s helps from a variance standpoint, but the overall effect is muted by their lack of efficiency on those shots (33.7%, per KenPom).

Stay away

No. 15 Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs. No. 2 Auburn Tigers
Upset chance: 7%

BPI sees Auburn as more of a borderline No. 3/No. 4 seed in terms of team quality, but it's of no matter here. The Tigers should have no issue in the first round.

No. 16 Texas Southern Tigers vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks
Upset chance: 3%

Of the two possibilities for Kansas here, Texas Southern is the slightly more difficult option. But either way, it's no sweat for the Jayhawks.

No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks
Upset chance: 1%

Should this matchup come to fruition, Kansas would be the heaviest favorite in any first-round game besides Gonzaga, per the Giant Killers model.