Giant Killers' 10 most likely first-round upsets in March Madness 2022 bracket

Time to pick some upsets.

Now that we have the complete NCAA men's tournament field of 68 for 2022, you're likely searching for that 12-over-5 upset that's bound to happen. If you're anything like us, you also want some numbers to point you in the right direction.

Giant Killers is here to help. Back for a 16th NCAA tournament, Giant Killers is our probabilistic forecast for NCAA tournament upsets. You can read the details here, but the idea is pretty straightforward: Giant Killers starts with a base probability of an upset from ESPN's College Basketball Power Index and adds the strengths, weaknesses and styles of the two teams in each matchup.

As always, Giant Killers considers only matchups with at least a five-line seed differential (a No. 11 over a No. 6 in the first round, for example). We know there will be upsets in the NCAA tournament. Our model is here to try to spot them in advance.

Here are Giant Killers' top 10 most likely upsets of the first round.

No. 11 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 6 Colorado State Rams
Upset chance: 64%

The committee must like heavyweight collisions in its 6-11 games. Michigan's Hunter Dickinson and Colorado State's David Roddy were both included on the Wooden Award's Midseason Top 25 Watch List. Now they'll go head-to-head against each other.

It's possible the committee also likes scoring. Both teams figure to put points on the board in this game, but the model does like how the Wolverines match up against a CSU rotation that ranks in the 300s for average height at KenPom. The combination of Dickinson and Caleb Houstan, in particular, could be a tall defensive order for Niko Medved's team.

No. 11 Virginia Tech Hokies vs. No. 6 Texas Longhorns
Upset chance: 49%

One day after knocking off Duke by 15 to win the ACC title, the Hokies are rewarded with ... an 11-seed? It's an oddball decision that sets up a clear-as-day "upset" opportunity -- with upset in quotes because I'm not even certain which team will end up favored here. Texas and Virginia Tech are one spot apart in BPI's rankings and four spots apart in adjusted efficiencies. These very equal teams are somehow five seed lines apart.

The Hokies' exceptional efficiency beyond the arc is a telltale trait of a Giant Killer. Though again, the odds here are more like an 8-9 matchup. If you're in a pool where your competitors will be blinded by the seed differential, Virginia Tech is an easy selection to advance to the round of 32.

No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels
Upset chance: 46%

In three Big Ten tournament games against three NCAA tournament teams, Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis scored 75 points on 68% 2-point shooting. He has improved every season that he has been at IU, and now he is blowing up almost from game to game. Jackson-Davis is a problem for any defense, even the outstanding Saint Mary's defense.

When the Hoosiers aren't feeding the ball to their star, they're playing very good defense in their own right. That defense carried Indiana for much of the season, and now it's paired with an increasingly potent offense. If IU is able to get past Wyoming in the First Four, this is a team that can win a 12-5 game against SMC.

No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide
Upset chance: 44%

The Fighting Irish fell to Virginia Tech in their first game of the ACC tournament, and the loss dropped Mike Brey's group into the First Four in Dayton, Ohio. But if Notre Dame can safely navigate its way past Rutgers in the play-in game, the model sees some good things in a potential pairing with Alabama.

The Irish take excellent care of the ball, and in ACC play, they converted almost 40% of their 3-point attempts. Those traits could come in handy against a Crimson Tide team that operated at a turnover deficit in SEC play while shooting just 29.4% from beyond the arc.

No. 13 South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. No. 4 Providence Friars
Upset chance: 40%

Here's what you need to know about South Dakota State: Before adjusting for opponent strength, the Jackrabbits had the most efficient offense in Division I this season. Period.

Now, that's an awfully important qualifier, of course. Because with all due respect to the Summit League, the Jackrabbits played the 269th-most difficult schedule this season. But still! Even with adjustment, they have been the 14th-most efficient offense in college hoops this year.

The way the Giant Killers model sees it: South Dakota State has a field goal efficiency advantage sweep over the Friars -- field goals from all over the floor sink more often for the Jackrabbits. That's a big problem for Providence.

No. 13 Vermont Catamounts vs. No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks
Upset chance: 36%

Is Vermont's highly efficient scoring offense enough to take down the Razorbacks? There's a real chance.

The Catamounts have some clinical Giant Killer elements in their game: a high volume of 3-point shots while knocking them down at a high clip; ultra-efficient 2-point scoring; protecting the basketball well; and a slow pace.

And sure, their 317th-ranked schedule draws some fair questions. But Giant Killers' love for them comes only after opponent adjustments, and it's still fond of the Catamounts.

No. 11 Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide
Upset chance: 27%

Back in February when Rutgers earned its bid with consecutive wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois, the Scarlet Knights got the job done with some highly efficient offense. That version of the Scarlet Knights received big contributions from Ron Harper Jr., Paul Mulcahy and Geo Baker, before becoming somewhat less potent for the remainder of the season.

It turns out the Giant Killers model thinks the "old" Rutgers offense could resurface against the Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide excel at denying 3-point looks to opponents, but the Scarlet Knights prefer the interior anyway. If Steve Pikiell's team advances past Notre Dame, it has a shot against Alabama.

No. 12 Wyoming Cowboys vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels
Upset chance: 25%

As recently as mid-February, Wyoming's projected seed in mock brackets was as high as that of the Gaels'. Then the Cowboys dropped three straight road games and even a home date against San Diego State, and here we are with a potential Giant Killers matchup. "Potential" because Wyoming must first advance against fellow No. 12 seed Indiana.

SMC coach Randy Bennett carries a well-earned reputation as something of a preparation guru. He'll need those skills because Wyoming is unusual. Jeff Linder loves to run post-ups for featured scorers Hunter Maldonado and Graham Ike. Maldonado, in particular, is a tough matchup as a 6-foot-7 point guard.

No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 6 LSU Tigers
Upset chance: 22%

The Cyclones have an outside shot in this matchup of two defensive stalwarts. The Tigers are about 5.5 points better on a neutral court, per BPI, and are the superior team on both ends of the floor, as well.

There's nothing stylistically that screams upset here, either. No major edge for Iowa State in adjusted field goal rates, rebounding on either end of the court or free throw shooting.

Of course, one factor Giant Killers isn't considering is the recent firing of LSU coach Will Wade. It's not unreasonable to guess the Tigers' change in coach right before the tournament bumps up Iowa State's chance to win by a couple of percentage points.

No. 14 Colgate Raiders vs. No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers
Upset chance: 18%

Colgate was one of Giant Killers' favorite upset picks a year ago. (The Raiders gave Arkansas a scare but ultimately came up short.) This season they make the cut, but only just.

Yes, in general, Colgate's propensity to both attempt and make 3-pointers gives them a chance against any foe. But the dramatic difference in defensive quality between these two teams -- Wisconsin ranks 31st in defensive BPI, while Colgate is 179th -- is just too large a gap for the Raiders to make up to be more than a relative long shot.

All that being said, if you're dead set on selecting a 14-seed or worse to win a first-round matchup, Colgate is the clear pick.