Welcome to my second annual presentation of 343 teams that will not win the national championship.
I'm happy to say this young feature already has the momentum of Gonzaga in November, December, January and most of February. I was 100 percent correct last year. None of the 343 teams I named won it all. I await your awed hush.
What's more, two teams from the group that I didn't name made it to the national title game (Villanova and North Carolina) and three made it to the Final Four (Oklahoma). Oh, and never mind that Michigan State pick. Nothing to see there.
My incredible one-for-one streak means it's all on the line this spring. I embrace the moment. In fact, you should prepare yourself for my breakout sophomore version of this now-hearty perennial.
Here are my selections for the 343 teams that will not win the national championship in 2017, broken up into three categories.
Ineligible (eight teams)
1. Abilene Christian Wildcats
2. Alcorn State Braves
3. Cal State Northridge Matadors
4. Grand Canyon Antelopes
5. Incarnate Word Cardinals
6. Massachusetts Lowell River Hawks
7. Northern Colorado Bears
8. Savannah State Tigers
Near misses (20 teams)
1. I know two things about Arizona. First, this "Can Sean Miller get to the Final Four?" question is silly. Bill Self started out 0-4 in Elite Eight games and then promptly won a national title. If Miller has put his teams into four regional finals in seven years, he's doing something right. Second, it seems like people are being lulled to perceptual sleep this season by the Arizona uniform. I'm hearing that this group plays the usual Wildcat brand of defense, but in Pac-12 play, this bunch, while very good, was nevertheless outperformed with room to spare on that side of the ball by Oregon and even Cal. That, plus Lauri Markkanen shooting 16 percent on his 3s in February and March is enough to make me wary.
2. Baylor Bears
We should stand and applaud Baylor right now, not only for beating the odds (in the preseason the Bears were projected as a No. 8 seed, but also for still another sustained feat of basketball improbability. You're not supposed to be able to win games giving the ball away 22 percent of the time in conference play while opponents are committing turnovers on just 15 percent of their possessions. That is an enormous gap, the kind that gets Indiana yelled at consistently. Yet here is BU, all set for a really high seed. That's quite an accomplishment, but I do come back to the word "improbability."
3. Chris Holtmann is some kind of mad genius in aw-shucks central-Indiana clothing to have put an undersized team that allows conference opponents to convert 53 percent of their 2s in line for a really, really nice seed. The Bulldogs this season mostly got that job done the Bo Ryan way. No Big East offense came within even two percentage points of BU's low-low turnover rate in league play (15.2 percent). Alas, I expect the shot-volume wizardry will carry Kelan Martin and company only so far. Butler's per-possession scoring margin, after all, was identical to Creighton's in the analytically pellucid round-robin Big East.
4. Everyone says Mick Cronin finally has the scorers to go with the garden-variety incredible defense he always has. Everyone's right, but I do have to wonder whether we're aren't giving the Bearcats bonus points for visual contrast. SMU, after all, has an offense that's head and shoulders above Cincinnati's perimeter-oriented attack, and Jacob Evans saw his 3-point percentage dip in American play. Speaking of the American Conference, UC ranked No. 3 for 2-point accuracy in Division I's worst 2-point shooting league. Granted, the presence of both Tacko Fall and the Cincinnati defense in the same league helped those bad numbers along. Still.
5. Forget previous personnel groupings in Omaha: Greg McDermott's current rotation still shoots pretty well, but the Bluejays aren't in the same league on that measure as Villanova, much less Marquette. That matters, because if you're going to (mostly) say no to offensive boards while committing an average number of turnovers, you'll have to make up for it with shooting that's even better than pretty good.
6. A serviceable thumbnail version of Duke's recent history could go like this. Either the Blue Devils display very good interior defense and offensive rebounding in ACC play, or they don't. When they do they're a clear threat to win it all as a No. 1 seed, as seen in 2010 and 2015. When they don't, they get a No. 2, 3 or 4 seed (a "floor" that 99 percent of D-I would gladly take) and fall short of the Final Four. Luke Kennard, Jayson Tatum and the fast-developing (and just plain fast) Frank Jackson are a trio built to terrify opposing defenses, but this year Mike Krzyzewski's guys ranked No. 4 in ACC play for offensive rebounding and No. 9 in terms of 2-point defense. Perhaps Duke can break the mold this time around, but, make no mistake, there is a mold.
7. Last season Florida posted a 9-9 record in SEC play and went on to win a couple NIT games. So it's fair to consider 2016-17 a big upgrade. The Gators are excellent on both sides of the ball (note that UF is significantly underrated on defense), and Mike White can coach my team any time he chooses. If present trends continue, future seasons will find the Gators making the last available upgrade in this column -- and soon. Even so, the 2017 tournament's a little too soon for this team.
8. The Sunshine State is the feel-good state this season in college basketball. Like their in-state rivals over in Gainesville, the Seminoles are following up on a "down" 2015-16 with a statement season. Jonathan Isaac has been as good as advertised, Dwayne Bacon's a rock as a featured scorer, and Xavier Rathan-Mayes is having the best year of his career. Does FSU's so-so shooting raise questions about how deep into the field the Noles can really go? Yes. Would Leonard Hamilton have gladly taken questions like this a year ago when his team went 8-10 in the ACC? Absolutely.
9. ISU's Big 12 opponents shot nearly 3 percentage points better on their 2s than the Cyclones themselves did. That Steve Prohm's team was able to go 12-6 regardless in one of the strongest top-to-bottom leagues we've seen this century is doubtless a testament to the coach's resourcefulness, the team's clutch capacities (the Cyclones were 3-0 in Big 12 games that went to overtime) and, not least, to the astounding brand of zero-turnover ball practiced by Monte Morris. That being said, the only gathering of teams even more impressive than the 2016-17 Big 12 will be the opponents that ISU or any team will face starting with the tournament's second weekend.
10. The Cardinals made me very, very hesitant to pull the "near miss" trigger. Louisville has developed to the point where it was almost as good (extremely) on offense as it was on defense in ACC play. Donovan Mitchell has games in which he simply takes over with his scoring. Anas Mahmoud is possibly the most underrated rim defender in the nation. Lastly, this will not be Rick Pitino's first barbecue. (Can we rename this "342 teams that won't win"?) Tough call, but the Cards' close-to-the-league-average number for 2-point accuracy in conference play plus their stubbornly terrible figure for ACC opponent free throw rate lands Pitino's guys here.
11. Melo Trimble and the Terrapins were great, or at least no worse than average, at literally everything in conference play this season ... except for defensive rebounding. But what an exception: Maryland was as bad as any team in that department in Big Ten play, and the NCAA tournament is a famously efficient mechanism for throwing some of the nation's best offensive rebounding teams in your path.
12. With all due respect to Chris Collins and the continuing series of sports miracles occurring on or very near Chicago's North Side (you're next, DePaul!), this is my Big Ten Coach of the Year right here. In the span of one season, Richard Pitino went from leading a 2-16 Big Ten team to presiding over a group that may yet be wearing the home team's colors in the round of 32 even if the bracket goes according to form. Give equal shares of the credit there to Reggie Lynch's stout interior defense, Nate Mason's solid work at the point and, yes, to Big Ten opponents for making just 33 percent of their rare 3s. That level of futility from opposing teams may not continue, however, and the available leeway for the Big Ten's No. 9 offense isn't as large as commonly supposed.
13. As long as the Wildcats don't run into Illinois in the field of 68, they'll be fine. I kid, I kid. The Illini swept Northwestern this season, but perhaps that was the levy the hoops gods requested in exchange for the Cats making program history. A small price to pay, indeed: Chris Collins has an excellent defense in Evanston, one that forces misses in the paint (take a bow, Dererk Pardon) and limits 3-point attempts. On offense? It was thought the Wildcats' midseason scoring deficiency was attributable to Scottie Lindsey's absence. Then the junior returned from his ankle injury and the numbers for points stayed pretty similar. Just the same, 2017 has given Northwestern not only its long awaited tournament bid (we trust) but also something as spectacular and unforeseeable as The Pass. New horizons await.
14. Notre Dame's offense isn't as good as what we've seen from the Fighting Irish the past two seasons. Hard to tell, right? Matt Farrell and V.J. Beachem have made their fair share of 3s, the Irish (per usual) keep turnovers to a minimum, and, oh yeah, this is one of the best free throw shooting teams we've seen in the last 30 years. Nevertheless, the fact remains: Notre Dame's offense isn't as good as what we're used to seeing in South Bend. That's one reason why 17 of this team's 23 games against major-conference opponents have been decided by single digits. ND's tournament run figures to consist of either one close loss or multiple close games. You will be entertained.
15. See "Louisville" above. Keeping Purdue on the "near miss" side of the line was one tough call. On paper the Boilermakers are one of the best perimeter-oriented offenses in the nation. (Buy your Dakota Mathias stock now.) Throw in the automatic double-double that is Caleb Swanigan, and you have a combination that no defense will want to face. In fact, the only solace that such a defense will be able to find is that, surprisingly, the Boilers ranked just No. 11 in Big Ten play for offensive rebound percentage. That, plus an average turnover rate makes this offense more reliant on each possession's first shot than the average Big Ten team.
16. Saint Mary's Gaels
Jock Landale was robbed. Randy Bennett's junior had one of the best seasons the WCC has seen in a very long time, yet he lost out on league POY honors to Gonzaga's Nigel Williams-Goss. Can Landale show those voters just how wrong they were with a magical run to Phoenix? In theory there's a lot to like with a 27-3 team that hasn't lost to anyone except the Bulldogs since the beginning of December. The problem is the Gaels haven't really played an NCAA tournament-caliber opponent except the Zags since then, and, also, that December loss was to UT Arlington. Yes, the Mavericks are tough, but it was still a 14-point loss in Moraga.
17. For four years observers have been saying Virginia is susceptible to scoring droughts, and for four years that has been mostly pace-influenced double-talk. Then February 2017 rolled around and, sweet mother of Sahara, did the Cavaliers have a scoring drought. True, the offense has rebounded nicely since then, and, anyway, UVa closed the regular season with a level of defense that was ridiculously good even by Charlottesville standards. (North Carolina and Pittsburgh combined to score 0.75 points per possession.) Yet the total eclipse of the offense, and more particularly all the missed jumpers being attempted by a somewhat jumper-reliant team, serves as a warning label.
18. West Virginia Mountaineers
In the abstract I could sign on to a Press Virginia run to a Final Four, and certainly the Mountaineers more than lived up to their clippings this season in terms of forcing turnovers. As it happens, however, this edition of West Virginia was a little more average than Bob Huggins would prefer in terms of taking care of the ball and in its degree of success on the offensive glass. Add to that the fact that the Mountaineers' conference opponents -- even with all the turnovers -- attempted 58 more free throws than did Huggins' guys and there's just enough here to nudge WVU to the near-miss category.
19. I believe every bit of what my laptop's excitedly telling me about Gregg Marshall's offense. Landry Shamet and Conner Frankamp are draining 3s with pitiless frequency, and if you can find a blemish in what the Shockers are doing anywhere on that side of the ball you have keener eyes than mine. Still, I remain a bit skeptical about what will happen when -- for the first time in months -- Wichita State plays an opponent that's at least open to the idea of offensive rebounds. (The rest of the Valley besides WSU doesn't roll that way.) That opponent will likely succeed in that particular rebounding endeavor a third of the time or even more, and those successes will result in more points than what my laptop has tracked so smugly so far.
20. If Wisconsin is trying to win a national championship, the "Connecticut in 2010-11" way, well, mission accomplished. That season the Huskies lost seven of their last 11 to close out the regular season, only to reel off 11 straight postseason wins on their way to Jim Calhoun's third national title. Toward that end, these Badgers have dropped a five of their last seven in their own right. Of course, we remember the one group that won a championship after suffering through a tough February at the expense of the many, many other teams that merely, you know, suffered through a tough February. That brand of parallax plus the Badgers' below-average shooting in Big Ten play is enough to land Wisconsin here.
No clear path (315 teams)
1. Air Force Falcons
2. Akron Zips
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
4. Alabama A&M Bulldogs
5. Alabama State Hornets
6. Albany Great Danes
7. American Eagles
8. Appalachian State Mountaineers
9. Arizona State Sun Devils
10. Arkansas Razorbacks
11. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
12. Arkansas State Red Wolves
13. Army Black Knights
14. Auburn Tigers
15. Austin Peay Governors
16. Ball State Cardinals
17. Belmont Bruins
18. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
19. Binghamton Bearcats
20. Boise State Broncos
21. Boston College Eagles
22. Boston University Terriers
23. Bowling Green Falcons
24. Bradley Braves
25. BYU Cougars
26. Brown Bears
27. Bryant Bulldogs
28. Bucknell Bison
29. Buffalo Bulls
30. California Golden Bears
31. Cal Poly Mustangs
32. Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
33. Cal State Fullerton Titans
34. Campbell Fighting Camels
35. Canisius Golden Griffins
36. Central Arkansas Bears
37. Central Connecticut Blue Devils
38. Central Michigan Chippewas
39. Charleston Cougars
40. Charleston Southern Buccaneers
41. Charlotte 49ers
42. Chattanooga Mocs
43. Chicago State Cougars
44. Citadel Bulldogs
45. Clemson Tigers
46. Cleveland State Vikings
47. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
48. Colgate Raiders
49. Colorado Buffaloes
50. Colorado State Rams
51. Columbia Lions
52. Connecticut Huskies
53. Coppin State Eagles
54. Cornell Big Red
55. Dartmouth Big Green
56. Davidson Wildcats
57. Dayton Flyers
58. Delaware Blue Hens
59. Delaware State Hornets
60. Denver Pioneers
61. DePaul Blue Demons
62. Detroit Mercy Titans
63. Drake Bulldogs
64. Drexel Dragons
65. Duquesne Dukes
66. East Carolina Pirates
67. East Tennessee State Buccaneers
68. Eastern Illinois Panthers
69. Eastern Kentucky Colonels
70. Eastern Michigan Eagles
71. Eastern Washington Eagles
72. Elon Phoenix
73. Evansville Purple Aces
74. Fairfield Stags
75. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
76. Florida A&M Rattlers
77. Florida Atlantic Owls
78. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
79. Florida International Golden Panthers
80. Fordham Rams
81. Fort Wayne Mastodons
82. Fresno State Bulldogs
83. Furman Paladins
84. Gardner-Webb Bulldogs
85. George Mason Patriots
86. George Washington Colonials
87. Georgetown Hoyas
88. Georgia Bulldogs
89. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
90. Georgia Southern Eagles
91. Georgia State Panthers
92. Grambling Tigers
93. Green Bay Phoenix
94. Hampton Pirates
95. Hartford Hawks
96. Harvard Crimson
97. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
98. High Point Panthers
99. Hofstra Pride
100. Holy Cross Crusaders
101. Houston Cougars
102. Houston Baptist Huskies
103. Howard Bison
104. Idaho Vandals
105. Idaho State Bengals
106. Illinois Fighting Illini
107. Illinois-Chicago Flames
108. Illinois State Redbirds
109. Indiana Hoosiers
110. Indiana State Sycamores
111. IUPUI Jaguars
112. Iona Gaels
113. Iowa Hawkeyes
114. Jackson State Tigers
115. Jacksonville Dolphins
116. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
117. James Madison Dukes
118. Kansas State Wildcats
119. Kennesaw State Owls
120. Kent State Golden Flashes
121. La Salle Explorers
122. Lafayette Leopards
123. Lamar Cardinals
124. Lehigh Mountain Hawks
125. Liberty Flames
126. Lipscomb Bisons
127. Little Rock Trojans
128. Long Beach State 49ers
129. LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds
130. Longwood Lancers
131. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
132. Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
133. LSU Tigers
134. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
135. Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
136. Loyola Maryland Greyhounds
137. Loyola Marymount Lions
138. Maine Black Bears
139. Manhattan Jaspers
140. Marist Red Foxes
141. Marquette Golden Eagles
142. Marshall Thundering Herd
143. Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks
144. UMass Minutemen
145. McNeese Cowboys
146. Memphis Tigers
147. Mercer Bears
148. Miami Hurricanes
149. Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
150. Michigan Wolverines
151. Michigan State Spartans
152. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
153. Milwaukee Panthers
154. Ole Miss Rebels
155. Mississippi State Bulldogs
156. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
157. Missouri Tigers
158. Missouri State Bears
159. Monmouth Hawks
160. Montana Grizzlies
161. Montana State Bobcats
162. Morehead State Eagles
163. Morgan State Bears
164. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
165. Murray State Racers
166. Navy Midshipmen
167. Nebraska Cornhuskers
168. Nevada Wolf Pack
169. New Hampshire Wildcats
170. NJIT Highlanders
171. New Mexico Lobos
172. New Mexico State Aggies
173. New Orleans Privateers
174. Niagara Purple Eagles
175. Nicholls Colonels
176. Norfolk State Spartans
177. North Carolina A&T Aggies
178. North Carolina Central Eagles
179. NC State Wolfpack
180. North Dakota Fighting Hawks
181. North Dakota State Bison
182. North Florida Ospreys
183. North Texas Mean Green
184. Northeastern Huskies
185. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
186. Northern Illinois Huskies
187. Northern Iowa Panthers
188. Northern Kentucky Norse
189. Northwestern State Demons
190. Oakland Golden Grizzlies
191. Ohio Bobcats
192. Ohio State Buckeyes
193. Oklahoma Sooners
194. Oklahoma State Cowboys
195. Old Dominion Monarchs
196. Omaha Mavericks
197. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
198. Oregon State Beavers
199. Pacific Tigers
200. Penn Quakers
201. Penn State Nittany Lions
202. Pepperdine Waves
203. Pittsburgh Panthers
204. Portland Pilots
205. Portland State Vikings
206. Prairie View A&M Panthers
207. Presbyterian Blue Hose
208. Princeton Tigers
209. Providence Friars
210. Quinnipiac Bobcats
211. Radford Highlanders
212. Rhode Island Rams
213. Rice Owls
214. Richmond Spiders
215. Rider Broncs
216. Robert Morris Colonials
217. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
218. Sacramento State Hornets
219. Sacred Heart Pioneers
220. Saint Joseph's Hawks
221. St. Bonaventure Bonnies
222. St. Francis (New York) Terriers
223. St. Francis (Pennsylvania) Red Flash
224. St. John's Red Storm
225. Saint Louis Billikens
226. Saint Peter's Peacocks
227. Sam Houston State Bearkats
228. Samford Bulldogs
229. San Diego Toreros
230. San Diego State Aztecs
231. San Francisco Dons
232. San Jose State Spartans
233. Santa Clara Broncos
234. Seattle Redhawks
235. Seton Hall Pirates
236. Siena Saints
237. South Alabama Jaguars
238. South Carolina Gamecocks
239. South Carolina State Bulldogs
240. South Carolina Upstate Spartans
241. South Dakota Coyotes
242. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
243. South Florida Bulls
244. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
245. Southeastern Louisiana Lions
246. Southern Jaguars
247. Southern Illinois Salukis
248. Southern Illinois Edwardsville Cougars
249. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
250. Southern Utah Thunderbirds
251. Stanford Cardinal
252. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
253. Stetson Hatters
254. Stony Brook Seawolves
255. Syracuse Orange
256. Temple Owls
257. Tennessee Volunteers
258. Tennessee Martin Skyhawks
259. Tennessee State Tigers
260. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
261. Texas Longhorns
262. Texas A&M Aggies
263. Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders
264. TCU Horned Frogs
265. Texas Southern Tigers
266. Texas State Bobcats
267. Texas Tech Red Raiders
268. Toledo Rockets
269. Towson Tigers
270. Troy Trojans
271. Tulane Green Wave
272. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
273. UAB Blazers
274. UC Davis Aggies
275. UC Irvine Anteaters
276. UC Riverside Highlanders
277. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
278. UCF Knights
279. UMBC Retrievers
280. UMKC Kangaroos
281. UNC Asheville Bulldogs
282. UNC Greensboro Spartans
283. UNC Wilmington Seahawks
284. UNLV Rebels
285. USC Trojans
286. UT Arlington Mavericks
287. UTEP Miners
288. UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
289. UT San Antonio Roadrunners
290. Utah Utes
291. Utah State Aggies
292. Utah Valley Wolverines
293. Valparaiso Crusaders
294. Vanderbilt Commodores
295. Vermont Catamounts
296. VMI Keydets
297. VCU Rams
298. Virginia Tech Hokies
299. Wagner Seahawks
300. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
301. Washington Huskies
302. Washington State Cougars
303. Weber State Wildcats
304. Western Carolina Catamounts
305. Western Illinois Leathernecks
306. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
307. Western Michigan Broncos
308. William & Mary Tribe
309. Winthrop Eagles
310. Wofford Terriers
311. Wright State Raiders
312. Wyoming Cowboys
313. Xavier Musketeers
314. Yale Bulldogs
315. Youngstown State Penguins
By my count that is 343 teams that will not win the national championship. Congratulations are therefore in order for Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, SMU, UCLA and Villanova. You are all conspicuous by your absences.
Make me look good. There's a streak on the line.