This is the time of year when people in my line of work like to pick a group of teams that will produce the national champion. I thought it might be easier just to say who won't win. Since "won't win" is the correct answer 350 times out of 351, I figured the numbers would be on my side.
Here are my selections for the 343 teams that will not win the national championship, broken up into three categories.
Ineligible (14 teams)
1. Abilene Christian Wildcats
2. Alcorn State Braves
3. Central Arkansas Bears
4. Florida A&M Rattlers
5. Grand Canyon Antelopes
6. Incarnate Word Cardinals
7. Louisville Cardinals
8. Massachusetts Lowell River Hawks
9. Missouri Tigers
10. Northern Kentucky Norse
11. Pacific Tigers
12. SMU Mustangs
13. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
14. Stetson Hatters
Near-misses (42 teams)
1. Baylor Bears
The Bears suffered from some bad luck in 2015-16 as Big 12 opponents couldn't miss from outside, but even allowing for the unsustainable accuracy from opposing teams, this defense is not up to the standards of the BU offense.
2. Butler Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are a magnificent 3-point shooting team that struggles to score on the interior and is average on D. So, yeah, Chris Holtmann's team is fully capable of a huge upset or even two, however six wins will be a challenge.
3. California Golden Bears
I'm not worried about Cal's road woes in Pac-12 play. There are no true road games in the tournament. (Well, unless you're Boise State last year.) I am worried, however, about the the defensively-strong Golden Bears getting enough chances to score, what with their fairly high turnover rate and average offensive rebounding.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats
Assuming the Bearcats make the NCAA tournament, they will be a formidable obstacle for any opposing offense. Cincinnati will also be, however, a fairly welcome sight for any opposing defense.
5. Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado was outscored in Pac-12 play, and no team that recorded fewer points than its conference opponents has reached the Sweet 16 in 11 years.
6. Connecticut Huskies
The Huskies struggled down the stretch, and while that happened in 2011, too, Kevin Ollie doesn't seem pleased by the repeat performance this season. Note as well that even though this defense was outstanding for much of the season, the Huskies' offense is average.
7. Dayton Flyers
The fuss over Archie Miller is legitimate. He has he eighth-best offense in the nation's eighth-best conference, and his team will likely get a No. 7 seed or so. I suggest that you salute the coach and prepare for Dayton to play some close low-scoring games.
8. Duke Blue Devils
I thought Duke could have mounted a strong title defense with a healthy Amile Jefferson, and in fact for the balance of the season this team's performance wasn't too different than what we saw from the Blue Devils during the 2014-15 regular season. But now we know Jefferson won't be coming back, and without him, this team has shown it has problems.
9. Florida Gators Simply put, the Gators will be fortunate if they get in the tournament.
10. Gonzaga Bulldogs
See above, "Florida."
11. Iowa Hawkeyes
That season-ending win at Michigan was important for Iowa, because you don't want to go into the Big Ten Tournament having lost five in a row. Still, the Hawkeyes struggled on defense late in the season.
12. Iowa State Cyclones
First-year coach Steve Prohm deserves major credit for overseeing the No. 1 per-possession offense in Big 12 play, but this season conference opponents connected on more than half their 2s (50.3 percent, to be precise) against ISU.
13. Maryland Terrapins
To my eyes, this Maryland team is better than the one that earned a No. 4 seed a year ago, but turnovers and perimeter shooting have been recurring concerns for Mark Turgeon in 2015-16.
14. Miami Hurricanes
Jim Larranaga has done what was held to be impossible for years, he has made previously forlorn Miami a consistent winner (see also 2012-13) in the ACC. However the past record of teams that excel in close games (UM was 6-1 in ACC contests decided by single digits) and lose big (see the Hurricanes' season-ending 15-point loss at Virginia Tech) is not encouraging.
15. Michigan Wolverines
Michigan may not make the tournament, and if the Wolverines do go dancing, their bracket-wrecking potential will be limited by the absence of Caris LeVert
.
16. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
When referring to the Irish, writers usually like to say the defense is questionable, but late in the season ND's usually amazing offense went into its own funk. That's not an ideal run-up to the tournament.
17. Oregon Ducks
The Ducks are one of the better 2-point shooting teams in the field, and I am fairly excited to see what Chris Boucher has in store for March. The only concern with Oregon's championship bona fides is a defense that ranked No. 5 in Pac-12 play and that it may have its hands full against opponents who crash the offensive glass.
18. Oregon State Beavers
At the risk of repeating myself (see "Colorado," above), history has not been kind to teams like the Beavers that were outscored in conference play. Then again, Wayne Tinkle has rewritten history by (we trust) getting OSU into the tournament for the first time since 1990. Well done, sir.
19. Pittsburgh Panthers
Pitt's defense isn't bad, but it was slightly worse than average in ACC play. Being on the wrong side of your conference mean has tended to limit a team's shelf life in the tournament. (Yes, there are exceptions. There's your bulletin board material, Jamie Dixon.)
20. Providence Friars
Providence ended the season as the No. 9-ranked team in Big East play in terms of accuracy from the field. Ed Cooley's defense is excellent, but an inability to make shots puts a ceiling on the Friars' March hopes.
21. Purdue Boilermakers
No team in the field up to and including Michigan State itself will have the kind of rebounding excellence on both ends of the floor that Matt Painter's group possesses. What's surprising about the Boilermakers, however, is that this defense isn't more effective. The fact that opponents never commit turnovers is a big part of that surprise.
22. Saint Joseph's Hawks
Not that Saint Joe's was going to make it onto my short list of teams that could win a title, but I'll confess that my laptop still sees a lot to like in the Hawks. I will additionally admit that losing your last game of the season at home to Duquesne gives me pause.
23. Saint Mary's Gaels
If you're looking for a Bill Walsh figure in college basketball, you could do worse than a coach who put five new starters on the floor and got some of the nation's best shooting out of them. Randy Bennett can coach my team any day, but SMC's work on the glass this season has not been the last word in ferocious.
24. St. Bonaventure Bonnies
The Bonnies closed the season by winning 10 of 11, and you can make a case that Mark Schmidt has the best offense in the A-10. That being said, league opponents shot better on their 2s than St. Bonaventure did.
25. Seton Hall Pirates
The Pirates' defense and offensive rebounding give this team an excellent shot at its first tournament win since 2004. Past that, however, the Hall's average shooting may be a limiting factor.
26. South Carolina Gamecocks
It has become a backhanded compliment to say a team is "close," but the more I look at the Gamecocks the more that term captures the situation precisely. Good defense, plenty of takeaways, excellent offensive rebounding. Only thing: Frank Martin's guys have trouble getting the ball in the basket.
27. Syracuse Orange
Jim Boeheim's team has overachieved, and you don't want to face this defense. Still, Syracuse has been known to commit an occasional turnover and is average on offense overall.
28. Temple Owls The Owls finished near the bottom of the American in 2-point accuracy, which is one indication of just how good Fran Dunphy's defense has had to be for Temple to be in consideration for a bid.
29. Texas Longhorns
Shaka Smart's everything everyone thought he'd be when he took a major-conference job. Alas, his first Longhorn offense, while excellent at taking care of the ball, simply struggles to make shots.
30. Texas A&M Aggies
This is a team of streaks, no doubt, so if the Aggies win their first two in the tournament, it will be easy to envision them rolling along a little longer. My only hesitation with this group is the near-average 2-point shooting recorded by Big 12 opponents.
31. Texas Tech Red Raiders
What a performance by Tubby Smith and the Red Raiders, finishing at .500 in the nation's toughest conference. No, this team likely doesn't have the defensive chops to hang around long in the NCAA tournament, but the key term there is "NCAA tournament." That's where Texas Tech will be for the first time since 2007. Well done, Raiders.
32. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Frank Haith's team has played itself into bubble consideration thanks in part to the American's largest turnover margin. And that margin is important, because on each possession that doesn't have a turnover Tulsa more or less played its league to a draw.
33. USC Trojans
Whether it was due to fatigue, a back-loaded schedule or some combination of both, the Trojans dropped six of their final eight regular-season games. Maybe Andy Enfield's guys can take a page from UConn in 2011 (which lost four of its last five regular-season games), but the amazing thing is arguably that USC is (we think) going to the tournament after that kind of stretch run. In the big picture, things have definitely improved for the Trojans.
34. Utah Utes
The Utes are on a roll, and Jakob Poeltl will be one of the most important offensive players in the entire field. I don't like leaving Larry Krystkowiak's team off my short list, but I suspect Utah's defense may look a little better on paper than it "really" is, thanks in part to the Pac-12's extreme aversion to 3s. The tournament field will not be nearly that averse.
35. Valparaiso Crusaders
Valpo has ridden outstanding defense and good perimeter shooting all the way to inclusion on this "just-missed" list. Bryce Drew, I salute you. Keep going.
36. Vanderbilt Commodores
Kevin Stallings' team looks like it will go dancing, thank goodness (the Commodores deserve to do so), but this group just doesn't get enough chances to score. Then again if Vandy ever pulls down some offensive boards, look out. This is an excellent shooting team that plays D.
37. Virginia Cavaliers
This is the year the Cavaliers reach the second weekend, but history gives me pause regarding one aspect of Tony Bennett's team. Since 2010 no Final Four team has finished the regular season with a number that's below-average in major-conference play for shot volume. And the Hoos, in spite of a 16.4 percent turnover rate and mostly due to a 27.6 offensive rebound percentage in ACC play, are a hair below average.
38. VCU Rams
I trust the Rams will make the field (they should), and once there , Wade's team will absolutely have the ability to reach the second weekend. Observers are correct that VCU won't win it all, but many of those observers are still underrating this team just a bit.
39. West Virginia Mountaineers
This team is way stronger than people are realizing, and I took a very long look at grouping the Mountaineers with the seven other teams that can win the title. That being said, past NCAA tournaments have not necessarily been kind to high-foul defenses such as West Virginia's.
40. Wichita State Shockers
Laptops -- including mine -- love the Shockers way more than pollsters do, and I suppose I'm somewhere in between those two estimable observers. Put me down as loving the Wichita State D, yet somewhat concerned about the 33.8 percent 3-point shooting WSU recorded in Valley play.
41. Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers' run in February and March has been fueled by good 3-point shooting and a high number of takeaways. (Yes, the Wisconsin defense forces turnovers now.) Whether or not both trends continue for the duration of a long tournament run, Greg Gard has done wonders.
42. Xavier Musketeers
Expect a deep run from Chris Mack's guys, who can score effectively from both sides of the arc and crash the offensive glass. That being said, the Xavier defense was average in Big East play, and tournament opponents may be able to give the Musketeers a taste of their own offensive rebounding medicine.
No clear path to a title (287 teams)
1. Air Force Falcons
2. Akron Zips
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
4. Alabama A&M Bulldogs
5. Alabama State Hornets
6. Albany Great Danes
7. American Eagles
8. Appalachian State Mountaineers
9. Arizona State Sun Devils
10. Arkansas Razorbacks
11. Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans
12. Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions
13. Arkansas State Red Wolves
14. Army Black Knights
15. Auburn Tigers
16. Austin Peay Governors
17. Ball State Cardinals
18. Belmont Bruins
19. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
20. Binghamton Bearcats
21. Boise State Broncos
22. Boston College Eagles
23. Boston University Terriers
24. Bowling Green Falcons
25. Bradley Braves
26. BYU Cougars
27. Brown Bears
28. Bryant Bulldogs
29. Bucknell Bison
30. Buffalo Bills
31. Cal Poly Mustangs
32. CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners
33. Cal State Fullerton Titans
34. Cal State Northridge Matadors
35. Campbell Camels
36. Canisius Golden Griffins
37. Central Connecticut Blue Devils
38. Central Michigan Chippewas
39. Charleston Cougars
40. Charleston Southern Buccaneers
41. Chattanooga Mocs
42. Chicago State Cougars
43. Citadel Bulldogs
44. Clemson Tigers
45. Cleveland State Vikings
46. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
47. Colgate Raiders
48. Colorado State Rams
49. Columbia Lions
50. Coppin State Eagles
51. Cornell Big Red
52. Creighton Bluejays
53. Dartmouth Big Green
54. Davidson Wildcats
55. Delaware Blue Hens
56. Delaware State Hornets
57. Denver Pioneers
58. DePaul Blue Demons
59. Detroit Titans
60. Drake Bulldogs
61. Drexel Dragons
62. Duquesne Dukes
63. East Carolina Pirates
64. East Tennessee State Buccaneers
65. Eastern Illinois Panthers
66. Eastern Kentucky Colonels
67. Eastern Michigan Eagles
68. Eastern Washington Eagles
69. Elon Phoenix
70. Evansville Purple Aces
71. Fairfield Stags
72. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
73. Florida Atlantic Owls
74. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
75. Florida International Panthers
76. Florida State Seminoles
77. Fordham Rams
78. Fresno State Bulldogs
79. Furman Paladins
80. Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
81. George Mason Patriots
82. George Washington Colonials
83. Georgetown Hoyas
84. Georgia Bulldogs
85. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
86. Georgia Southern Eagles
87. Georgia State Panthers
88. Grambling State Tigers
89. Green Bay Phoenix
90. Hampton Pirates
91. Hartford Hawks
92. Harvard Crimson
93. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
94. High Point Panthers
95. Hofstra Pride
96. Holy Cross Crusaders
97. Houston Cougars
98. Houston Baptist Huskies
99. Howard Bison
100. Idaho Vandals
101. Idaho State Bengals
102. Illinois Fighting Illini
103. Illinois Chicago Flames
104. Illinois State Redbirds
105. Indiana State Sycamores
106. IPFW Mastodons
107. IUPUI Jaguars
108. Iona Gaels
109. Jackson State Tigers
110. Jacksonville Dolphins
111. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
112. James Madison Dukes
113. Kansas State Wildcats
114. Kennesaw State Owls
115. Kent State Golden Flashes
116. La Salle Explorers
117. Lafayette Leopards
118. Lamar Cardinals
119. Lehigh Mountain Hawks
120. Liberty Flames
121. Lipscomb Bison
122. Long Beach State 49ers
123. LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds
124. Longwood Lancers
125. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
126. Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
127. LSU Tigers
128. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
129. Loyola Marymount Lions
130. Loyola Chicago Ramblers
131. Loyola Maryland Greyhounds
132. Maine Black Bears
133. Manhattan Jaspers
134. Marist Red Foxes
135. Marquette Golden Eagles
136. Marshall Thundering Herd
137. Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks
138. Massachusetts Minutemen
139. McNeese State Cowboys
140. Memphis Tigers
141. Mercer Bears
142. Miami RedHawks
143. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
144. Milwaukee Panthers
145. Minnesota Golden Gophers
146. Ole Miss Rebels
147. Mississippi State Bulldogs
148. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
149. Missouri State Bears
150. Monmouth Hawks
151. Montana Grizzlies
152. Montana State Bobcats
153. Morehead State Eagles
154. Morgan State Bears
155. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
156. Murray State Racers
157. Navy Midshipmen
158. Nebraska Cornhuskers
159. Nevada Wolf Pack
160. New Hampshire Wildcats
161. NJIT Highlanders
162. New Mexico Lobos
163. New Mexico State Aggies
164. New Orleans Privateers
165. Niagara Purple Eagles
166. Nicholls State Colonels
167. Norfolk State Spartans
168. North Carolina A&T Aggies
169. North Carolina Central Eagles
170. NC State Wolfpack
171. North Dakota Fighting Hawks
172. North Dakota State Bison
173. North Florida Ospreys
174. North Texas Mean Green
175. Northeastern Huskies
176. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
177. Northern Colorado Bears
178. Northern Illinois Huskies
179. Northern Iowa Panthers
180. Northwestern Wildcats
181. Northwestern State Demons
182. Oakland Golden Grizzlies
183. Ohio Bobcats
184. Ohio State Buckeyes
185. Oklahoma State Cowboys
186. Old Dominion Monarchs
187. Omaha Mavericks
188. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
189. Penn Quakers
190. Penn State Nittany Lions
191. Pepperdine Waves
192. Portland Pilots
193. Portland State Vikings
194. Prairie View A&M Panthers
195. Presbyterian Blue Hose
196. Princeton Tigers
197. Quinnipiac Bobcats
198. Radford Highlanders
199. Rhode Island Rams
200. Rice Owls
201. Richmond Spiders
202. Rider Broncs
203. Robert Morris Colonials
204. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
205. Sacramento State Hornets
206. Sacred Heart Pioneers
207. St. Francis NY Terriers
208. St. Francis PA Red Flash
209. St. John's Red Storm
210. Saint Louis Billikens
211. Saint Peter's Peacocks
212. Sacred Heart Pioneers
213. Sam Houston State Bearkats
214. Samford Bulldogs
215. San Diego Toreros
216. San Diego State Aztecs
217. San Francisco Dons
218. San Jose State Spartans
219. Santa Clara Broncos
220. Savannah State Tigers
221. Seattle Redhawks
222. Siena Saints
223. South Alabama Jaguars
224. South Carolina State Bulldogs
225. South Dakota Coyotes
226. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
227. South Florida Bulls
228. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
229. Southeastern Louisiana Lions
230. Southern Jaguars
231. Southern Illinois Salukis
232. Southern Illinois Edwardsville Cougars
233. Southern Utah Thunderbirds
234. Stanford Cardinal
235. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
236. Stony Brook Seawolves
237. Tennessee Volunteers
238. Tennessee Martin Skyhawks
239. Tennessee State Tigers
240. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
241. Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders
242. TCU Horned Frogs
243. Texas Southern Tigers
244. Texas State Bobcats
245. Toledo Rockets
246. Towson Tigers
247. Troy Trojans
248. Tulane Green Wave
249. UAB Blazers
250. UC Davis Aggies
251. UC Irvine Anteaters
252. UC Riverside Highlanders
253. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
254. UCF Knights
255. UCLA Bruins
256. UMBC Retrievers
257. UMKC Kangaroos
258. UNC Asheville Bulldogs
259. UNC Greensboro Spartans
260. UNC Wilmington Seahawks
261. UNLV Rebels
262. USC Upstate Spartans
263. UT Arlington Mavericks
264. UTEP Miners
265. UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
266. UTSA Roadrunners
267. Utah State Aggies
268. Utah Valley Wolverines
269. Vermont Catamounts
270. VMI Keydets
271. Virginia Tech Hokies
272. Wagner Seahawks
273. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
274. Washington Huskies
275. Washington State Cougars
276. Weber State Wildcats
277. Western Carolina Catamounts
278. Western Illinois Leathernecks
279. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
280. Western Michigan Broncos
281. William & Mary Tribe
282. Winthrop Eagles
283. Wofford Terriers
284. Wright State Raiders
285. Wyoming Cowboys
286. Yale Bulldogs
287. Youngstown State Penguins
By my calculations, that leaves eight teams that may win the national championship. Congratulations to Arizona, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Villanova. Make me look good.