Should you watch out more for Jonathan Huberdeau and the Calgary Flames crushing your fantasy dreams down the stretch?
Or is it Nico Hischier and the New Jersey Devils who are going to trample you in the final weeks?
When we are talking about strength of schedule for fantasy hockey, there isn't going to be a single correct answer for solving the problem. That's because there isn't a single correct way to play the game.
Those in head-to-head leagues with daily roster movement will need to be more mindful of Hischier and the Devils forwards. The Devils play only 14 times, but their opponents combine to offer the most potential for forwards to score fantasy points per game. But it's not only those 14 games that you will have to worry about. Because you play in a league with daily lineups, you also need to worry about the 18 days that the Devils don't play during the fantasy hockey playoffs.
By default, the playoffs for head-to-head leagues will consist of two, extended rounds. The first is from March 17 to March 30 (14 days) and the second from March 31 to the end of the regular season on April 17 (18 days).
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Due to the nature of daily lineups, a manager could combine Nico Hischier with a player from a team that plays frequently when the Devils don't to maximize production from a roster spot. In this case, Hischier and Dylan Strome of the Washington Capitals would combine to play on 25 unique nights across the 32 total days of the fantasy hockey playoffs.
So, for leagues with daily lineups, the winner for strength of schedule is mean, as opposed to sum.
In leagues with locked weekly lineups, you are only going to be able to cycle out your roster at key intervals. In this format, it's more important to consider the overall potential of the schedule. Huberdeau and the Flames have a total of 17 games left, three more than the Devils. So even though their opponents combine to rank the Flames 16th on fantasy potential per game for forwards, they should be considered the offense with the most total potential because of those extra games in hand.
With all that in mind, I've created a table for strength of schedule that attempts to take into account all the information a fantasy manager might need across different formats. Whether you want per-game projections, sum projections, individual position breakdowns or just the simple total fantasy points expected, it's all here.
Unique about the calculations in this strength of schedule for fantasy, is that it doesn't care what bottom-six forwards, third-pairing defense or backup goaltenders do. This is only including the top 150 forwards, 76 defense and 24 goalies (starts only) for fantasy production and looking at which teams they produced fantasy points against so far this season. All we care about in this space is fantasy production from the players we actually use on our rosters, so there is no point having the projections dragged down by the chaff in the free-agent pool.
The FPPG, or fantasy points per game, is a suggested barometer per player for each position, based on what their opponents have allowed on average so far this season. The fantasy points are just the result of combining the FPPG and the total games left. The total fantasy points at the end is just the sum of the positional projections.
Keep in mind this is how top performers manage against these opponents, so the results skew high to give a reasonable result for players you would actually use in fantasy. So, no, this is not suggesting Sam Montembeault is going to get another 43.83 fantasy points. It's saying that, based on the schedule, a top fantasy goaltender playing the Montreal Canadiens remaining schedule has that projection. You still need to take into account which players from these teams can actually meet the threshold.
For example, Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz have been reliable fantasy performers this season and the Maple Leafs own one of the better goaltender schedules, both on a per-game and total basis. You still need to understand that they will split time, but the schedule is promising for them to close the season strong. They are great to have on rosters with daily lineups, as you can track projected starts and get them into your lineup.
On the other hand, while the Flames per-game goaltender projections are a little lower, we know Dustin Wolf has been pretty fantastic for fantasy. We know he'll be starting a lot and the Flames have a higher total based on remaining games. In weekly lineup leagues, he's the one to set and forget.
And the same interpretations can be made at the bottom of the table. No, Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets don't have the most favorable schedule, but he's on another level this season and, as an individual, will buck the strength of schedule projection. Maybe your interest was piqued by Tristan Jarry's comeback performance for the Penguins on Sunday. But the Pens have the worst schedule for fantasy goaltenders going forward, so there are better options.
If you are just limping into the postseason or the final stretch and you need to take things a little more week-by-week, scroll down to the bottom to find the same tables but broken down to just the two rounds of the fantasy playoffs. You'll be able to reset your roster more often than that, even in weekly-lock leagues, but it's still a good guide and easier to digest than one for each week.
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Power-play notes
Seth Jones, D, Florida Panthers (available in 13.5%): That was awkward. Monday's Waiver Watch in this space pointed out that Aaron Ekblad was still the Panthers go-to defender on the power play, even after the trade for Jones. Well ... it looks like Jones will be getting more than 0:53 per game of power-play access going forward. Ekblad's fantasy season is over with the suspension.
Matt Duchene, C, Dallas Stars (available in 17.8%): Duchene was the odd one out for the power play when the Stars had a full lineup with Mikko Rantanen in tow. But, he may have been bought a reprieve if Roope Hintz's injury keeps him out of action for any amount of time, as Duchene was back on the powerhouse top unit.
Patrick Kane, RW, Detroit Red Wings (available in 36.4%): We could still get a strong closing salvo from Kane this season. The Red Wings power play is firing on all cylinders, with seven goals in the past 10 games from the top unit. Kane is still available in a lot of leagues, which is fair from an overall perspective, but he's been doing better of late.
Andrei Kuzmenko, LW, Los Angeles Kings (available in 96.2%): It's not just time on the top line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, but Kuzmenko is with them on the top power-play unit, too!
Dylan Cozens, C, Ottawa Senators (available in 46.5%): The Sens moved Cozens up to the top unit in place of Claude Giroux on Monday night. In 3:24 of total time as a unit, they fired off a ridiculous 13 shot attempts and managed to score.
Alex Wennberg, C, San Jose Sharks (available in 98.3%): The Sharks have, so far, chosen to replace the departed Jake Walman on the advantage with a fifth forward. There is some potential here for Wennberg to pick up some value in deeper leagues.
Dylan Cozens' first goal with the Senators comes on the power play and gives Ottawa the lead for good in a win over Detroit.
Droppables
Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks (rostered in 92.3%): I don't know how it's working, but it seems when we threaten a player in this spot with the idea that they could be dropped in fantasy hockey, they kick things into high gear. It worked on Martin Necas earlier this season when he was slowing down his fantasy production and was suddenly traded to the Avalanche. It worked last week with Steven Stamkos, who had gone more than a month without scoring a single point, but has four goals and four assists in three games since being called out. So ... Hear this, Elias Pettersson! You are officially on notice from the fantasy hockey universe to rediscover your scoring touch! The 1.39 fantasy points per game across your past 20 is unacceptable and the two goals in 2025 will not stand! ... OK, that'll surely work.
Strength of schedule
Here are the tables from the intro, but broken down to Round 1 and Round 2 of the fantasy hockey playoffs for default ESPN leagues.