If you are in a keeper or dynasty fantasy league, you probably have a good idea about whether you are competing for this season or competing for the future. These rankings are built for you if you are competing for the future, but that's not to say keeping the long-term in mind isn't a terrible idea for those fantasy managers also gunning for the title.
After all, you can't build a dynasty if you don't think about the short-, medium- and long-term impacts on your roster for each move you make. With the default trade deadline for ESPN Fantasy leagues coming fast and furious (Feb. 28) and the NHL's deadline right behind it (Mar. 7), now is the time to make some adjustments and a commitment to the outcome of your squad.
These are projections for fantasy production for the next five seasons. As in, this is the best guess for how I'd line up the players building a team that is meant to compete in 2025-26 all the way through the 2029-30 NHL season. Suffice it to say, it's a rough prognostication.
Jump ahead: Rankings
Most players have plenty of players to compare to, but two are in a league of their own. Custom projections have been added for Cale Makar and Zach Werenski. Not enough players in the past 15 years have been on similar enough career arcs to let the math stand on its own.
While the skater rankings are rooted in historical comparables and aging curves, goalies require a different approach due to their unpredictability.
Think about this: The equivalent season for this exercise ahead of the past five years would have been the 2019-20 season. Four of the goalies who would go on to be top 10 in fantasy points for those five years were rookies or sophomores in 2019-20. If you stretch out to the top 24, it's 13 goalies that were either rookies or sophomores in 2019-20. More than half!
That's different from forwards. Only Kirill Kaprizov and Jason Robertson are top 25 in fantasy points and made their debut in 2019-20 or later. Among the top 100 forwards, there are only eight who made the cut. It's similar with defense, with only Makar, Moritz Seider, Adam Fox and Noah Dobson in the top 25, and just six defenders in the top 60.
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Goalies
So goaltenders require a different approach. As a novel attempt to offer some prognostication, I used that list of goaltenders from the 2019-20 season and considered how they ranked for the next five years. Looking at each individual goalie on the list, I assigned them a "buddy" from the current crop of goaltenders whom I felt best lined up with their career path.
For example, Connor Hellebuyck led all goaltenders in fantasy points from 2020-21 to 2024-25. In 2019-20, he was a 26-year-old near the top of the league in wins with several successful seasons already under his belt. That's Jake Oettinger now. So Oettinger gets to take over those projections for the next five years.
Another example: Igor Shesterkin finished third in fantasy points over the past five years. He was a highly touted prospect who made his debut in the 2019-20 campaign. Meet Yaroslav Askarov.
This process was applied to each goaltender that was among the leaders for the past five seasons: Identify the goalie, examine their career trajectory in 2019-20, and find a modern counterpart. Each was assigned a "buddy" to take on their projections. To that end, when you see a goaltender on this list, you can look at them as more of a description of a goaltender archetype, rather than purely the player listed. Sebastian Cossa at No. 8 among goaltenders? No, that just means a young goaltender with almost zero NHL experience, but a highly touted future is earmarked to fill that spot in the rankings (like Ilya Sorokin in 2019-20).
Young and old
I think the math was tougher on younger NHLers, but that's not a bad thing. For example, Leo Carlsson (No. 300) has 44 comparables in the past 15 years based on the above guidelines. They range from Leon Draisaitl and Mikko Rantanen to Anders Bjork and Josh Ho-Sang. The combination of them all gives Carlsson a projected FPPG of just 1.32 across the next five years. Watching Carlsson, I think his potential falls closer to some of his other comparables like Ryan O'Reilly, Nazem Kadri or Mikael Granlund. But those other players help represent the picture that we are ultimately talking about a 20-year-old center with a range of possible outcomes.
To that same end, do my eyes tell me that Connor Bedard should be way higher than 72? Very much so. If doing this off the cuff, I may have ranked him top 10 on potential alone, but he's managing just 1.9 FPPG this season. Are the Blackhawks going to turn the corner and have the support he needs next year? The year after that? Maybe by then, but how much of a head start will the other players have on him by the time the Hawks are topping the standings again? I can live with where the data-crunching puts him, even though it doesn't "feel" right.
And some older players seem to be beating the system the other way. Bryan Rust has 41 comparables for his current age. That list is peppered with Hall of Famers such as Jarome Iginla, Shane Doan, Marian Hossa and Daniel Sedin, among others. It pushes his projected FPPG to 1.95. But does that feel representative of Rust's career? What happens when Sidney Crosby starts winding down? Can Rust keep scoring like this until 2029-30? His current production, ice time and age says those are the players most like him, but it doesn't feel like he's a first-ballot candidate for the hall at this stage.
The elephant in the room, however, is the absence of prospects. Once I settled on a purely data-based approach to the skaters, I decided to not meddle with the final outcome by inserting untested (or even undrafted) players.
Who are the omissions in my opinion? I'm already sitting on Alexander Nikishin of the Carolina Hurricanes in my own keeper league hoping we see the defender later this season once the KHL playoffs are done. Other defensemen include Artyom Levshunov, Zeev Buium and Sam Dickinson. Up front, Ivan Demidov, Gabe Perreault, Ryan Leonard and Beckett Sennecke pique my interest based on their prospect profiles. But, compared to the other youngsters already in the league, we are talking about an even wider array of outcomes. For this particular approach, I thought it better to stick to players in the league.
These rankings aren't meant to be the final word -- rather, they're a foundation. The best fantasy managers will take this data, apply their own analysis, and make the best decisions for their league format and roster needs.
Rankings
1. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers, C1
2. Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild, LW1
3. Mikko Rantanen, Carolina Hurricanes, RW1
4. Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars, G1
5. Filip Forsberg, Nashville Predators, LW2
6. Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning, RW2
7. Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs, C2
8. Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers, C3
9. Jack Eichel, Vegas Golden Knights, C4
10. Artemi Panarin, New York Rangers, LW3
11. Brady Tkachuk, Ottawa Senators, LW4
12. Mark Scheifele, Winnipeg Jets, C5
13. Logan Thompson, Washington Capitals, G2
14. Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers, C6
15. Jake Guentzel, Tampa Bay Lightning, LW5
16. Jack Hughes, New Jersey Devils, C7
17. Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs, RW3
18. Kyle Connor, Winnipeg Jets, LW6
19. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche, C8
20. Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning, C9
21. Matthew Tkachuk, Florida Panthers, RW4
22. J.T. Miller, New York Rangers, C10
23. Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche, D1
24. Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers, RW5
25. Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks, D2
26. David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins, RW6
27. Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets, D3
28. Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres, D4
29. Moritz Seider, Detroit Red Wings, D5
30. Seth Jarvis, Carolina Hurricanes, RW7
31. Bryan Rust, Pittsburgh Penguins, RW8
32. Tom Wilson, Washington Capitals, RW9
33. Lucas Raymond, Detroit Red Wings, LW7
34. Nico Hischier, New Jersey Devils, C11
35. Travis Konecny, Philadelphia Flyers, RW10
36. Roman Josi, Nashville Predators, D6
37. Sebastian Aho, Carolina Hurricanes, C12
38. John Tavares, Toronto Maple Leafs, C13
39. Adrian Kempe, Los Angeles Kings, RW11
40. MacKenzie Weegar, Calgary Flames, D7
41. Vincent Trocheck, New York Rangers, C14
42. Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning, D8
43. Seth Jones, Chicago Blackhawks, D9
44. Tage Thompson, Buffalo Sabres, C15
45. Timo Meier, New Jersey Devils, LW8
46. Tim Stutzle, Ottawa Senators, C16
47. Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks, C17
48. Nick Suzuki, Montreal Canadiens, C18
49. Valeri Nichushkin, Colorado Avalanche, RW12
50. Mike Matheson, Montreal Canadiens, D10
51. John Carlson, Washington Capitals, D11
52. Alex Tuch, Buffalo Sabres, RW13
53. Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings, C19
54. Rickard Rakell, Pittsburgh Penguins, RW14
55. Colton Parayko, St. Louis Blues, D12
56. Matt Boldy, Minnesota Wild, LW9
57. Boone Jenner, Columbus Blue Jackets, C20
58. Mark Stone, Vegas Golden Knights, RW15
59. Brandon Hagel, Tampa Bay Lightning, LW10
60. Jake Sanderson, Ottawa Senators, D13
61. Clayton Keller, Utah Hockey Club, LW11
62. Adam Fox, New York Rangers, D14
63. William Nylander, Toronto Maple Leafs, RW16
64. Yaroslav Askarov, San Jose Sharks, G3
65. Spencer Knight, Florida Panthers, G4
66. Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg Jets, D15
67. Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars, LW12
68. Noah Dobson, New York Islanders, D16
69. Cole Caufield, Montreal Canadiens, LW13
70. Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers, D17
71. Shea Theodore, Vegas Golden Knights, D18
72. Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks, C21
73. Dylan Strome, Washington Capitals, C22
74. Dougie Hamilton, New Jersey Devils, D19
75. Mikael Granlund, Dallas Stars, LW14
76. Robert Thomas, St. Louis Blues, C23
77. Wyatt Johnston, Dallas Stars, C24
78. Dylan Guenther, Utah Hockey Club, RW17
79. Tomas Hertl, Vegas Golden Knights, C25
80. Joel Eriksson Ek, Minnesota Wild, C26
81. Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings, D20
82. William Eklund, San Jose Sharks, LW15
83. Gabriel Vilardi, Winnipeg Jets, C27
84. Jesper Bratt, New Jersey Devils, RW18
85. Jakob Chychrun, Washington Capitals, D21
86. Kevin Fiala, Los Angeles Kings, LW16
87. Nazem Kadri, Calgary Flames, C28
88. Mikhail Sergachev, Utah Hockey Club, D22
89. Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins, D23
90. Sean Durzi, Utah Hockey Club, D24
91. Alex Pietrangelo, Vegas Golden Knights, D25
92. Zach Hyman, Edmonton Oilers, RW19
93. Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets, D26
94. Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars, D27
95. Jonathan Marchessault, Nashville Predators, RW20
96. Rasmus Andersson, Calgary Flames, D28
97. Sean Monahan, Columbus Blue Jackets, C29
98. Lane Hutson, Montreal Canadiens, D29
99. Travis Sanheim, Philadelphia Flyers, D30
100. Jonas Brodin, Minnesota Wild, D31
101. Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks, C30
102. Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets, LW17
103. Alexander Romanov, New York Islanders, D32
104. Patrik Laine, Montreal Canadiens, RW21
105. Anthony Cirelli, Tampa Bay Lightning, C31
106. Kirill Marchenko, Columbus Blue Jackets, LW18
107. Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders, D33
108. Erik Karlsson, Pittsburgh Penguins, D34
109. Nick Seeler, Philadelphia Flyers, D35
110. Mathew Barzal, New York Islanders, C32
111. Frank Vatrano, Anaheim Ducks, RW22
112. Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders, G5
113. Radko Gudas, Anaheim Ducks, D36
114. Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars, RW23
115. Alex DeBrincat, Detroit Red Wings, LW19
116. Jacob Trouba, Anaheim Ducks, D37
117. Kaiden Guhle, Montreal Canadiens, D38
118. Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins, G6
119. Owen Power, Buffalo Sabres, D39
120. Jake Walman, San Jose Sharks, D40
121. Thomas Chabot, Ottawa Senators, D41
122. Martin Necas, Colorado Avalanche, RW24
123. Darnell Nurse, Edmonton Oilers, D42
124. Chris Kreider, New York Rangers, LW20
125. Josh Norris, Ottawa Senators, C33
126. Vince Dunn, Seattle Kraken, D43
127. Fabian Zetterlund, San Jose Sharks, RW25
128. Evander Kane, Edmonton Oilers, LW21
129. Jordan Kyrou, St. Louis Blues, RW26
130. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets, G7
131. Ryan O'Reilly, Nashville Predators, C34
132. Owen Tippett, Philadelphia Flyers, RW27
133. Jesper Wallstedt, Minnesota Wild, G8
134. Brock Nelson, New York Islanders, C35
135. Bo Horvat, New York Islanders, C36
136. Jacob Markstrom, New Jersey Devils, G9
137. Brandon Montour, Seattle Kraken, D44
138. Jonathan Huberdeau, Calgary Flames, LW22
139. Cam York, Philadelphia Flyers, D45
140. Jacob Fowler, Montreal Canadiens, G10
141. Connor Murphy, Chicago Blackhawks, D46
142. Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes, LW23
143. Lukas Dostal, Anaheim Ducks, G11
144. Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs, D47
145. Drake Batherson, Ottawa Senators, RW28
146. Sam Bennett, Florida Panthers, C37
147. Jackson LaCombe, Anaheim Ducks, D48
148. Brayden McNabb, Vegas Golden Knights, D49
149. Kyle Palmieri, New York Islanders, RW29
150. Mattias Ekholm, Edmonton Oilers, D50
151. Artturi Lehkonen, Colorado Avalanche, LW24
152. Matt Roy, Washington Capitals, D51
153. Jake McCabe, Toronto Maple Leafs, D52
154. Tyler Toffoli, San Jose Sharks, RW30
155. Jared Spurgeon, Minnesota Wild, D53
156. Jake Middleton, Minnesota Wild, D54
157. Chris Tanev, Toronto Maple Leafs, D55
158. Mika Zibanejad, New York Rangers, C38
159. William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights, C39
160. Carter Verhaeghe, Florida Panthers, LW25
161. Thomas Harley, Dallas Stars, D56
162. David Savard, Montreal Canadiens, D57
163. Matt Duchene, Dallas Stars, C40
164. Stuart Skinner, Edmonton Oilers, G12
165. Brock Faber, Minnesota Wild, D58
166. Bowen Byram, Buffalo Sabres, D59
167. Lukas Dostal, Anaheim Ducks, G13
168. Erik Gudbranson, Columbus Blue Jackets, D60
169. Blake Coleman, Calgary Flames, RW31
170. Logan Cooley, Utah Hockey Club, C41
171. Joseph Woll, Toronto Maple Leafs, G14
172. Esa Lindell, Dallas Stars, D61
173. Bradly Nadeau, Carolina Hurricanes, C42
174. Logan Mailloux, Montreal Canadiens, D62
175. Brayden Schenn, St. Louis Blues, C43
176. Juraj Slafkovsky, Montreal Canadiens, LW26
177. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning, G15
178. Roope Hintz, Dallas Stars, C44
179. Joel Blomqvist, Pittsburgh Penguins, G16
180. Brock Boeser, Vancouver Canucks, RW32
181. Ryan McDonagh, Tampa Bay Lightning, D63
182. Adam Fantilli, Columbus Blue Jackets, C45
183. Noah Hanifin, Vegas Golden Knights, D64
184. Torey Krug, St. Louis Blues, D65
185. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers, C46
186. Devon Toews, Colorado Avalanche, D66
187. Ivan Provorov, Columbus Blue Jackets, D67
188. Alex Vlasic, Chicago Blackhawks, D68
189. Ruslan Iskhakov, New York Islanders, LW27
190. Nick Schmaltz, Utah Hockey Club, RW33
191. Viktor Arvidsson, Edmonton Oilers, RW34
192. Artem Zub, Ottawa Senators, D69
193. Matty Beniers, Seattle Kraken, C47
194. Shayne Gostisbehere, Carolina Hurricanes, D70
195. Jake DeBrusk, Vancouver Canucks, RW35
196. Martin Fehervary, Washington Capitals, D71
197. Jonathan Drouin, Colorado Avalanche, LW28
198. Jordan Binnington, St. Louis Blues, G17
199. Justin Faulk, St. Louis Blues, D72
200. Aaron Ekblad, Florida Panthers, D73
201. Jaccob Slavin, Carolina Hurricanes, D74
202. Marco Rossi, Minnesota Wild, C48
203. Cam Fowler, St. Louis Blues, D75
204. Sebastian Cossa, Detroit Red Wings, G18
205. John Klingberg, Edmonton Oilers, D76
206. Vladislav Gavrikov, Los Angeles Kings, D77
207. Pierre-Luc Dubois, Washington Capitals, C49
208. Logan Couture, San Jose Sharks, C50
209. Elias Lindholm, Boston Bruins, RW36
210. Jared McCann, Seattle Kraken, RW37
211. Ivan Barbashev, Vegas Golden Knights, LW29
212. Matthew Knies, Toronto Maple Leafs, LW30
213. Tyler Myers, Vancouver Canucks, D78
214. Tyler Bertuzzi, Chicago Blackhawks, LW31
215. Conor Garland, Vancouver Canucks, RW38
216. Anton Lundell, Florida Panthers, LW32
217. Jesper Wallstedt, Minnesota Wild, G19
218. Jason Zucker, Buffalo Sabres, LW33
219. Troy Terry, Anaheim Ducks, C51
220. Brandt Clarke, Los Angeles Kings, D79
221. Mattias Samuelsson, Buffalo Sabres, D80
222. Devon Levi, Buffalo Sabres, G20
223. Kiefer Sherwood, Vancouver Canucks, LW34
224. Matvei Michkov, Philadelphia Flyers, RW39
225. Adam Larsson, Seattle Kraken, D81
226. Teuvo Teravainen, Chicago Blackhawks, RW40
227. Timothy Liljegren, San Jose Sharks, D82
228. Braden Schneider, New York Rangers, D83
229. Brady Skjei, Nashville Predators, D84
230. Seamus Casey, New Jersey Devils, D85
231. Simon Edvinsson, Detroit Red Wings, D86
232. Dmitri Voronkov, Columbus Blue Jackets, LW35
233. Adam Pelech, New York Islanders, D87
234. Alexis Lafreniere, New York Rangers, LW36
235. Steven Stamkos, Nashville Predators, C52
236. Pavel Dorofeyev, Vegas Golden Knights, RW41
237. Nikita Chibrikov, Winnipeg Jets, RW42
238. Marcus Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks, D88
239. Shane Pinto, Ottawa Senators, C53
240. Chandler Stephenson, Seattle Kraken, C54
241. Dylan Holloway, St. Louis Blues, C55
242. Kirby Dach, Montreal Canadiens, C56
243. Filip Hronek, Vancouver Canucks, D89
244. Phillip Danault, Los Angeles Kings, C57
245. Jeremy Lauzon, Nashville Predators, D90
246. Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars, LW37
247. Ilya Samsonov, Vegas Golden Knights, G21
248. Mason Marchment, Dallas Stars, LW38
249. Bobby McMann, Toronto Maple Leafs, C58
250. Eeli Tolvanen, Seattle Kraken, LW39
251. Nick Paul, Tampa Bay Lightning, C59
252. Garnet Hathaway, Philadelphia Flyers, RW43
253. Brandon Tanev, Seattle Kraken, LW40
254. Dylan Cozens, Buffalo Sabres, C60
255. Pavel Buchnevich, St. Louis Blues, RW44
256. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, New York Islanders, C61
257. Jake Neighbours, St. Louis Blues, LW41
258. Scott Laughton, Philadelphia Flyers, C62
259. Ross Colton, Colorado Avalanche, LW42
260. Trevor Moore, Los Angeles Kings, LW43
261. Leevi Merilainen, Ottawa Senators, G22
262. Connor McMichael, Washington Capitals, C63
263. Trey Augustine, Detroit Red Wings, G23
264. Jordan Eberle, Seattle Kraken, RW45
265. Morgan Geekie, Boston Bruins, C64
266. Damian Clara, Anaheim Ducks, G24
267. Pavel Zacha, Boston Bruins, C65
268. Aliaksei Protas, Washington Capitals, C66
269. Joel Hofer, St. Louis Blues, G25
270. Rafael Harvey-Pinard, Montreal Canadiens, LW44
271. Trevor Zegras, Anaheim Ducks, C67
272. Anthony Mantha, Calgary Flames, RW46
273. Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks, G26
274. Mason McTavish, Anaheim Ducks, C68
275. Adam Lowry, Winnipeg Jets, C69
276. Tyson Foerster, Philadelphia Flyers, RW47
277. Oliver Bjorkstrand, Seattle Kraken, RW48
278. Yegor Sharangovich, Calgary Flames, C70
279. Jordan Greenway, Buffalo Sabres, LW45
280. Charlie Coyle, Boston Bruins, C71
281. Jaden Schwartz, Seattle Kraken, LW46
282. Ryan Donato, Chicago Blackhawks, RW49
283. Morgan Frost, Calgary Flames, C72
284. Mathieu Olivier, Columbus Blue Jackets, C73
285. Cole Sillinger, Columbus Blue Jackets, C74
286. Ryan Hartman, Minnesota Wild, C75
287. Nino Niederreiter, Winnipeg Jets, RW50
288. JJ Peterka, Buffalo Sabres, RW51
289. Stefan Noesen, New Jersey Devils, LW47
290. Shane Wright, Seattle Kraken, C76
291. Yegor Chinakhov, Columbus Blue Jackets, RW52
292. Nic Dowd, Washington Capitals, C77
293. Dakota Joshua, Vancouver Canucks, C78
294. Kent Johnson, Columbus Blue Jackets, C79
295. Michael Bunting, Pittsburgh Penguins, LW48
296. J.T. Compher, Detroit Red Wings, RW53
297. Yanni Gourde, Seattle Kraken, C80
298. Marcus Foligno, Minnesota Wild, RW54
299. Vladimir Tarasenko, Detroit Red Wings, RW55
300. Leo Carlsson, Anaheim Ducks, C81