One of the issues with using power-play time as a "positive" indicator for fantasy assessment is that more of it doesn't always equal a positive outcome for fantasy hockey.
Take that argument to its illogical extreme: A player who spends a full two minutes on the ice each time his team gets a power play isn't getting you any fantasy points. The fantasy points come when the power play is ended prematurely by the team on the advantage scoring a goal -- and hopefully with your player getting in on the action.
If ending the power play is the ultimate goal for the team on the advantage, then it stands to reason that fewer power-play minutes could be an indicator of more positive outcomes -- if the team manages to score on the advantage with some frequency.
As you can maybe glean at this point, there is some circular arguments that can be made here. Is more power-play time good for fantasy? Is less power-play time good for fantasy? Is there another way to answer this question? Is there something we can look at aside from power-play time as an indicator of opportunity?
Let me jump on that last question with a resounding, "I think so." And I'm here to pitch you on it.
Different teams have differing amounts of power-play time afforded to them across the season. This is affected by how often they draw penalties and how successful they are at ending the power plays with a goal.
The range is wide already. When looking at it from a big picture perspective, we can add up all the power-play time spent on the ice collectively by skaters for each team. Right now, the team with the most time is the Colorado Avalanche with a sum total of 868 minutes and 17 seconds (868:17) of power-play time among all their skaters. The team with the least is the New York Islanders with 538 minutes and seven seconds (538:07).
The Avalanche have the second-most opportunities on the advantage and currently rank 19th for conversion percentage, so, yes, it tracks that they have piled up a lot of time on the advantage. The Isles have had the third-fewest chances and rank eighth in conversion, so, that also checks out.
But as you can see, it's a wide range, with the Avs spending an additional 61% of the Islanders' total time on the advantage above what the Islanders have. But this doesn't go down as an immediate positive for the Avalanche, nor as an immediate negative for the Islanders, as we've discussed.
What if we looked at each player's power-play ice time relative only to his own teammates?
Take each game played by an NHL club this season, rank the skaters based on power-play minutes, then add up those ranks. So if Shea Theodore leads the Vegas Golden Knights in power-play ice time for a game, he gets a "1" ranking for that game. If he finishes sixth in power-play minutes in another game, he gets a "6."
Once we tally up all those rankings and divide by games played, we should get a very keen sense of how often a player is leaned on for the advantage. It will be similar to how a team's skaters rank for power-play ice time per game, but slightly different based on the ebb and flow in total power-play time each game.
As you might expect, there are 140 players whose average power-play time ranking (APPTR) is below "5" -- expected because each team can have five skaters on your typical advantage and there are 32 teams, for 160 possibilities if all teams were consistent.
Of those 140 players, 43 of them have managed to score at a rate worse than 1.7 fantasy points per game (FPPG). Let's have a closer look at a few of them.
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Alex Ovechkin, W, Washington Capitals (1.54 Average Power-Play Time Ranking; 1.63 Fantasy Points Per Game): The Capitals are still all-in on giving Ovie every chance for success this season, as he leads all NHLers in the relativity ranking for power-play time. We should talk more about his 5.6% shooting percentage and whether it's a slow start or a new normal. He's only 20 shots behind the pace he had through 25 games last season, so while his volume has dipped, it's not a profound drop.
I know Ovechkin is now 38 years old and not supposed to stay at the same rates, but with this much power-play opportunity, I think there's a world in which the pace starts picking up a bit. Through 25 games last season he had 43 shots on the advantage and six power-play goals. He's only nine shots off that same shooting pace, but has a solitary power-play goal this season. I think some Ovechkin puck luck is due. Soon.
Brandon Montour, D, Florida Panthers (1.82 APPTR; 0.95 FPPG): The stats haven't started rolling off his stick yet, but it's clear that Montour has his role back on the point for the Panthers advantage.
Patrick Kane, W, Detroit Red Wings (2.33 APPTR; 1.53 FPPG): It's only been a couple of games, but I felt it worth noting that Kane is getting all the opportunities you would expect for someone of his stature here. It's only a matter of time until points flow.
Luke Hughes, D, New Jersey Devils (3.0 APPTR; 1.35 FPPG): With Dougie Hamilton out for an extended length of time, the younger of the Devils' Hughes brothers is going to get a ton of power-play minutes to pad his rookie campaign statistics. We are watching the Devils future here, as Simon Nemec has been backing him up in the role since Hamilton was hurt.
Pavel Zacha, C, Boston Bruins (3.46 APPTR; 1.66 FPPG): Considering how much weight is given to Zacha's role on the power play, there should be more points coming his way than the current rate. He's banged up at the moment, but once healthy, Zacha should get additional consideration considering his volume and the fact he's only rostered in 30% of leagues.
Cole Caufield, W, Montreal Canadiens (3.48 APPTR; 1.61 FPPG): Like Ovechkin, Caufield is getting all the volume one would expect for a team's top sniper. But the pucks just aren't going in at the moment. This could change on a dime given the importance of opportunity and how much of it still flows Caufield's way. For example, he fired nine shots against the Sabres on Saturday... it's just that none of them cashed. No one is a threat to start taking Caufield's key time away, so we can be patient with him.
Martin Necas, C, Carolina Hurricanes (3.65 APPTR; 1.56 FPPG): His average ranking for PP time is surely slipping in recent weeks as a healthy Canes team makes other choices for the top power-play unit. When the Hurricanes have their full lineup, Necas often finds himself lower in power-play priority and often on the fourth line at even strength.
Logan Cooley, C, Arizona Coyotes (3.96 APPTR; 1.26 FPPG): Still the fourth choice on the club for power-play minutes, Cooley's problem is not with the advantage at all. He has 10 power-play points already this season. The problem is that he only has five other points to speak of. If he starts clipping along at even strength, watch out.