In fantasy hockey, making the right decision on whether to buy, sell or hold a player can make the difference between making the playoffs and missing out. One indicator of a scorer's direction can be his past history. Does he start hot and cool off as the season goes along? Or does he sputter out of the gate and get rolling later on?
For most players, there is no trend. Over a long period of time, the majority of scorers see an even distribution between each month, but there are a handful of forwards in the NHL who have noticeably started fast or slow. Here is a look at ten such players.
Fast starters
Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars
Career October stats: 28 goals, 37 assists in 59 games
Dallas' franchise center will be worth watching this year because his scoring success came entirely under Lindy Ruff. Now that the Stars have replaced Ruff with a traditionally defensive-minded coach in Ken Hitchcock, we may see Dallas play better defense at the expense of lighting the lamp at their usual rate. Still, Seguin is one of the league's premier scorers, so even if his points per game dip, the former No. 2 overall pick will still post good numbers.
Tyler Toffoli, Los Angeles Kings
Career October stats: 17 goals, 13 assists in 30 games
After a strong 2015-16 season in which Toffoli posted 31 goals, it appeared the sky was the limit for the Kings' skilled center, but his production dropped significantly last season to just 16 goals in 63 games. A coaching change might result in the Kings playing at a faster pace than they did under Darryl Sutter, jolting Toffoli back to 2015-16 form.
Phil Kessel, Pittsburgh Penguins
Career October stats: 52 goals, 39 assists in 95 games
Showing no signs of slowing down into his late-20s, the Penguins sniper had his best season since 2013-14 by notching 70 points last season. As has been the trend over his career, Kessel was propelled by a hot start, tallying 21 points in his first 23 games. This year shouldn't be much different for the former Bruin and Leaf, but the Penguins did lose center Nick Bonino in free agency. Still, Kessel usually produces no matter the linemates because a high percentage of his points come on the power play.
Thomas Vanek, Vancouver Canucks
Career October stats: 47 goals, 55 assists in 114 games
After being bought out by the Minnesota Wild, Vanek opened 2016-17 by reminding everyone that he still has offensive gifts. The Austrian winger scored eight points in seven games in October despite playing less than 14 minutes per game. If you're drafting Vanek, beware of a slide late in the season. He scored just five goals over his final 31 games last season.
Brock Nelson, New York Islanders
Career October stats: 12 goals, 17 assists in 37 games
The Islanders' 6-foot-3 forward has been very consistent over the past three years, playing at least 81 games in each season and producing between 40 and 45 points each year. His best performances have come in the first month, when he has racked up 0.78 points per game, which is well above his career mark of 0.48 per game. The Isles are likely to see some of their up-and-coming scoring talent make the big club this year, and that might help boost Nelson's numbers.
Slow starters
Sean Monahan, Calgary Flames
Career October numbers: 15 goals, 12 assists in 46 games
The Flames' young star sputtered out of the gate last season, scoring just 10 points in his first 26 games. If he starts slow again, fantasy players should remain patient because Monahan has top-notch scoring skills. In the final 30 games, he produced 27 points. Like Nelson, he has been remarkably consistent, scoring between 58 and 63 points each year.
Wayne Simmonds, Philadelphia Flyers
Career October numbers: 24 goals, 23 assists in 86 games
Simmonds has not disappointed his fantasy owners in recent years. He has been healthy and hasn't scored fewer than 29 goals since the lockout season in 2012-13. Over the past four seasons, Simmonds has also been one of the NHL's best power-play scorers, averaging 14.5 power-play goals per season. While his starts haven't always been hot, the power winger did open last season with 11 points in 10 games in October.
Nazem Kadri, Toronto Maple Leafs
Career October numbers: 12 goals, 17 assists in 46 games
Kadri's scoring took off under coach Mike Babcock. He produced his highest points-per-game total since scoring 44 points in 48 games in 2012-13. Even with a terrific year, it took Kadri a few games to get rolling. He only put 15 shots on goal in the first nine games of 2016-17, resulting in three goals. When November came around, Kadri got comfortable, scoring six even-strength goals and putting 49 shots on goal in 14 games. Expect another big year from Kadri, even if he has a slow start.
Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Lightning
Career October numbers: 6 goals, 21 assists in 44 games
The Lightning's skilled center has had a case of bad luck in the opening month of his career. Johnson has just a 5.9 shooting percentage in October and only two even-strength goals in more than a half season's worth of games. His lowest shooting percentage in any other full month is 13.3 percent in January. With a skilled roster in place, it only seems like a matter of time before the 27-year-old forward sees things turn around.
Elias Lindholm, Carolina Hurricanes
Career October numbers: 2 goals, 3 assists in 34 games
The Hurricanes' 2013 first-rounder has had astonishing struggles in October, part of which appears to be caused by bad luck. Lindholm shoots at a 3.9 percent clip in the NHL's first month. As soon as November rolls around, his career points per game shoots up from an average of 0.08 to 0.49.