Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggests otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
Have you ever had one of those days/weeks/years where it seems as though everything goes wrong? When, no matter how well you prepare or how many speed bumps you manage to "woosah" your way through, the universe does its best vintage Clayton Kershaw impression and continues to sail curveballs your way? Those stretches of time in which you become convinced that Murphy's Law is less theoretical and more absolute?
I'm on one of those right now. I have blocked so many metaphorical sucker punches that my bosses might nickname me Don Flamenco. From the moment I boarded the plane at LAX to five minutes ago when I (kid you not) tripped across the threshold of my hotel room, unforeseen hiccups have caused me to ponder a legitimate glitch in the matrix.
The airline lost my luggage. Someone (accidentally) pulled the fire alarm at my hotel. The check engine light of my rental car suddenly popped on. A scheduling mix-up caused me to be 10 minutes late for a big meeting. My computer experienced an inexplicable meltdown that required the super assistance of tech support. And I can't find my readers.
Those are the highlights (or at least the ones I'm allowed to share). They might not seem like a lot to you. And, of course, things can always be worse. But I've been spinning!
The real challenge was that each jaw-clenching complication felt like another knot to untie ... and I was afforded only enough time for Velcro. I want to do all of the things and I am (as we discussed last week) committed to doing each of them well. That becomes infuriatingly difficult when the tick-tock of the clock emerges as the prevailing sound thrumming between your ears.
The fix? Slow down and prioritize. There is no other choice. Because once we decide that surrounding circumstances require a reboot, we can discover solutions and potential silver linings. For example, had my bags not been stranded at the Charlotte Douglas International Airport, I would never have become so skilled at using the airline's app, nor would I have, more importantly, continued to discover the depths of Stephania Bell's generosity. For those who missed the Fantasy Focus Football Podcast earlier in the week, Stephania welcomed me into her home at midnight, laid out toiletries and fresh towels, and let me raid her closet ... all while staying calm and not seeming the least bit annoyed or put out.
The same is true in fantasy. If the management of your team has felt like a slog as of late, please know you're not alone. Injuries and trades have kicked up constant chaos. Patience is wearing thinner than benches ... and that's saying something.
Losing Stefon Diggs for the season is understandably panic-inducing. Anticipating the immediate shrinkage of Diontae Johnson's target share could create some justifiable agita. Wringing hands over Brian Thomas Jr.'s Week 9 availability is the opposite of fun.
It's best to pause and remember that everyone's squads are sinking (at least in their own estimations). And while there may not be a quick solve, that doesn't mean an unexpected gift won't be delivered next week. November is not the time to breathlessly run to the waiver wire or toss out lopsided trades in a fit of desperation. Rather, take a breath, pull back, address your team's immediate needs, and stay the course. The fact is that anything can still happen and that should feel exciting.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts: Confession time. I had planned to open the column discussing Anthony Richardson and how fantasy managers should, at this point, stop wish-casting and bench him. However, Shane Steichen beat me to it. So, in the spirit of acknowledging dashed plans as a means to uncovering hope ... I give you Josh Downs' rising fantasy stock.
Joe Flacco's 74% catchable pass rate (QB18) may not inspire giddiness, but it's a massive improvement on Richardson's league-worst off-target rate of 24%. Downs' production was strikingly better with Flacco under center, as he averaged nearly 3 more catches, 14 more receiving yards and 5 more fantasy points per game in the three outings Flacco played versus those with Richardson under center.
Downs currently leads all Colts pass catchers in receptions (despite missing two games), receiving yards per game and total scores. The 23-year-old has gone over 65 receiving yards or found the end zone in four of his past five games and has gifted fantasy managers with 15 or more fantasy points in each of those outings. Coming off an acrobatic performance that resulted in a 4-109-1 stat line, Downs enters Week 9 on the WR2/WR3 bubble.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins: Expectations for Waddle's production were optimistically adjusted to accommodate the news that Tua Tagovailoa would be returning in Week 8. However, Waddle had an unfortunate drop and stayed quiet overall, converting four of six looks for an underwhelming 45 receiving yards. Waddle has now managed four or fewer grabs and 50 or fewer receiving yards in every game since Week 1. That's in stark contrast to Tyreek Hill, who has registered a minimum of six receptions and 60 yards in two of his past three contests.
The Alabama product has additionally disappointed in the red area of the field, posting a total of four receiving TDs over his past two seasons (21 games) and just one score over his past 14 outings. The points don't figure to accumulate on the road at Buffalo, where the Bills' defense is only getting healthier. Despite being short-handed, the secondary has generally held opposing wide receivers out of the end zone, allowing five touchdowns on the season. Waddle himself has struggled against the Bills, recording four or fewer receptions in five straight outings against them. Consider the Dolphins' No. 2 a low-end WR3 for fantasy purposes this weekend.
Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills: While the Bills' defense has players returning, the team's offense has pieces emerging. Coleman seems to be finding his footing in Orchard Park, running an increased number of routes since Week 4. Amari Cooper's addition also appears to have contributed to the rookie's burgeoning breakout.
Cooper looks to have replaced Mack Hollins' role on the perimeter, as the 30-year-old's outside snap share increased from 33% in Week 7 to 51% in Week 8 while Hollins' decreased from 74% to 48%. That correlated with an increase in snaps for the rookie, who recorded an 84% share in Week 8, up from 76% in Week 7, indicating that he'll man the boundary in a full-time capacity rather than rotate with Cooper and/or Hollins.
The tweaks have affected defensive assignments and opened up opportunities for Coleman. This, in turn, has allowed Josh Allen to feel more comfortable leaning on the second-round selection. Coleman has drawn seven targets in back-to-back games, with four of those looks appearing in the red area (and two occurring in the end zone). Coleman has led the team in high-value opportunities in each of those contests and should continue to be relied upon versus a Dolphins' defense that gave up scores to a pair of Cardinals wideouts last Sunday.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers: We knew it wouldn't last forever. Hubbard has been a hero given his surrounding circumstances thus far this season, but now Bryce Young is getting a second opportunity to start and Jonathon Brooks is rumored to shortly make his professional debut, Hubbard's stock is sinking.
The 25-year old averaged 7.4 fantasy points per game with Young at QB. Conversely, the Oklahoma State product logged 18.8 fantasy points per game with Andy Dalton at the helm. It's not terribly surprising that the RB's first (and only) triple-digit rushing effort occurred with Dalton under center.
While he wasn't much of a pass-catcher in college, Hubbard's hands have improved at the pro level. His involvement as a receiver (particularly on an offense as anemic as the Panthers') has helped to buoy his overall fantasy production. Interestingly, he managed nearly two more catches per contest under Dalton. There's a chance those numbers could rebound given Diontae Johnson's jettisoning, but that likelihood is certainly not something to rely upon.
Finally, Hubbard scored four TDs with the journeyman QB captaining the offense and a stunning zero times when Young was in charge. A lucky TD is what investors are attempting to manifest in Week 9. The Saints have allowed eight scores (tied for the fifth most) to opposing RBs, though it's worth noting New Orleans held J.K. Dobbins to 3.4 YPC in Week 8. As a result, Hubbard presents merely flex appeal heading into Week 9.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: Zack Moss entered the season as the Bengals' starting RB, but Brown has reminded investors that nothing is permanent, snagging the backfield's top spot. Brown has not only reeled in multiple grabs over his past five games, the second-year back has also recorded double-digit carries during that span. He has out-snapped and out-carried Moss by a wide margin since Week 5, logging a snap share of 56% (to Moss' 49%) and registering 37 totes (to Moss' 17) over the team's three most recent outings.
Brown should capitalize on a plus matchup versus Vegas on Sunday. Game flow figures to benefit the Bengals, as Cincy opened the week as 7.5-point home favorites. Furthermore, the Raiders have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. In fact, eight starting backs have posted 13 or more fantasy points when facing the Silver & Black, with each primary ball carrier either hauling in a minimum of five passes or finding the end zone. That's why Brown is the ESPN consensus-ranked RB26 ahead of Sunday's tilt and Moss is relegated to RB32.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions: We discussed the emergence of Jameson Williams and the negative effect on LaPorta's production three weeks ago. The fluidity of the league has since tested that hypothesis ... and proven it to be true. LaPorta's numbers have spiked with Williams sidelined, which is a trend that figures to continue. In 2023, LaPorta was targeted on 19.8% of his routes when sharing the field with Williams, and 28.2% when not. In 2024, it has been 12.4% with Williams on the field, 25.9% without.
While Williams' off-field issues may keep LaPorta in play longer than anticipated, it's important to properly frame the tight end's overall success. The Iowa product slayed as a rookie, but has surprisingly cleared 70 receiving yards in only three of 24 career games. For context, Brock Bowers has already registered four such outings in just eight games. Additionally, Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Kyle Pitts have achieved the above benchmark three times so far this season.
LaPorta's TD rate (10 scores in 2023, TE1) is what specifically made him such a fantasy star. As every good millennial understands, touchdowns are like waterfalls ... and we don't go chasing those. That's not to say LaPorta won't provide value at a frustratingly inconsistent position. In fact, he's certain to put up at least top-10 positional numbers in Week 9. With group thinkers assuming Williams' absence could result in an automatic return to the 23-year-old's 2023 statistical dominance, however, LaPorta could morph into a sneaky trade piece. Coming off a season-best showing (6-48-1) and facing a Packers' defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs, LaPorta might be the key to helping managers bolster other positions on their rosters.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons: Did we do it? After three years of supplications at the altar of the fantasy gods, have we finally manifested a Pitts breakout season? I don't want to jinx anything, but the oft-described unicorn has been performing at (previously believed) mythical levels. Currently fantasy football's TE4 overall, Pitts has out-kicked his 2023 production by nine spots and his rookie season stats by two ranks. He may not blossom into a Kelce-like or Andrews-esque producer, but the first-round talent has made good on the promise of becoming a TE1 for the virtual game's purposes.
With substantial regime changes and a significant swap under center, Pitts' red zone usage (30% end zone target share) and target quality have skyrocketed. The 24-year-old has drawn five or more looks in four straight games. That's a marked change from the top of the season, when the Falcons' TE1 was being targeted five or fewer times in each of his first four games. Appearing more explosive than ever and seeing an increase in his downfield deployment, Pitts seems to have finally found flight with the Falcons.
He could flirt with top-5 positional stats in a game versus a Dallas defense that just gave up 6 of 7 for 128 receiving yards and a score to George Kittle this past Sunday evening. In a game with a projected point total of 52.5, there should be plenty of opportunities for Pitts to flash his ceiling and steadily morph from problematic to productive.
Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF.