Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised.
Don't be surprised if ... Jalen Hurts runs for more TDs than he throws
OK, so that may seem silly, but check the numbers. Fantasy managers should not care how star players accrue their fantasy points, only that they do. Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts enters Week 9 with the sixth-most PPR points at the position, but he is third in PPR points per game, behind only Baltimore's Lamar Jackson and Buffalo's Josh Allen. Should it matter that Hurts has only one more passing touchdown (8) than rushing scores (7)? It's surely a unique situation, but one fantasy managers cannot complain about.
Hurts entered the Week 5 bye having scored 17 PPR points in just one of four games, riddled with seven turnovers and obvious inefficiency. In fact, no quarterback could rival him for turnovers since the start of last season. Hurts averaged 33 passing attempts in the first four games, with notable errors in judgement each week. The Eagles had to solve that.
Since then, the Eagles have won three games in a row (albeit none against winning teams) and Hurts has notably committed nary a turnover, in part because the team adjusted his role and lowered the risk. Hurts has attempted only 59 passes in three weeks (20 per week), just two more than RB Saquon Barkley's rushing attempts and, in general, these have been safer passes. The lone passing touchdown on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati was a lovely 45-yard rainbow to WR DeVonta Smith -- one with little chance of getting picked.
Plus, Hurts has scored five rushing touchdowns over the past two games, four of them on the Eagles' near-lock, tush push rugby scrums. These plays remain as effective as in prior seasons, even when the defense knows it is coming.
Baltimore's Jackson remains fantasy's top scorer through eight weeks and is a leading MVP candidate, but Hurts has a good chance to finish second in fantasy points if he continues to take extra care of the football and continues to be provided with short rushing scores. Philadelphia's schedule is one of the most favorable over the final two months (starting with Week 9 against the Jaguars) and features five more NFC East battles and a Week 14 "gimme" against the Panthers.
If Hurts finishes with between 15-20 passing touchdowns and just as many rushing scores, that would be quite the historic achievement.
Don't be surprised if ... Kareem Hunt keeps his starting role
Kansas City Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt enters Week 9 averaging 16.2 PPR points over his four games -- a figure surpassed by only 10 running backs this season. Injured Chief Isiah Pacheco is (just barely) not one of them. Pacheco averaged 16.0 PPR points in his two games, breaking his left leg late in Week 2. He had surgery and, at the time, the Chiefs remained hopeful that Pacheco would play again sometime in November.
Well, November is just about here and surely the Chiefs would welcome back their original starting running back ... but would they simply push Hunt aside in doing so? Fantasy managers may want to tread carefully in trading for Hunt as if he will be a safe RB2 option for the rest of the regular season. Then again, if the cost is low, go for it. Really, Hunt has been a stunning RB1 option so far.
The unbeaten Chiefs, looking to play in February, can afford to be extra patient with Pacheco, too. Hunt, who remains available in more than 10% of ESPN standard leagues, boasts 21-plus rushing attempts in each of the past three games, scoring four rushing touchdowns in that span. He is not seeing much in the passing game, but his overall volume remains high. For comparison, Pacheco has had 21 rushing attempts in only one of his 33 career games, although he does tend to catch more passes.
Still, coach Andy Reid essentially replaced Pacheco's high usage with Hunt (who is older and not nearly as efficient) and the Chiefs continue to win their games. It has not been because QB Patrick Mahomes, tied with Derek Carr at QB22 with 14.4 PPR points per game, is piling on the numbers.
Look for Hunt, assuming he remains healthy, to continue handling a top usage role, and perhaps we see Pacheco again by Thanksgiving. Even when he does return, this may be a timeshare, with Hunt potentially handling the early-down work.
Don't be surprised if ... Kirk Cousins frustrates fantasy managers
The good news for Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins is that he has his new team in first place in the NFC South, and he has scored the 12th-most PPR points at his position, averaging a useful 15.6 PPR points per game. The bad news is that the Falcons do not play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers again this season, and fantasy managers have some reason for trepidation.
In two games against Tampa Bay, Cousins has 785 passing yards (392.5 per game), eight touchdown passes (four in each game), one interception and 63 PPR points. Cousins was the top scoring fantasy QB in Week 5, and he was third this past week. Awesome numbers!
In his six other games, not all of which were against top defenses (Panthers, Seahawks, etc.), Cousins has had just 1,321 passing yards (220 per game), six touchdown passes, six interceptions and he is averaging a meager 10.3 PPR points per game. In fact, Cousins has been one of the lowest-scoring fantasy QBs in five out of eight weeks, finishing in single digits three times. The Falcons are 3-3 when not facing Tampa Bay. None of this is predictive, of course, but it may be concerning.
The Falcons host the Cowboys (sixth-easiest defense to accrue QB fantasy points against) in Week 9, but the Broncos, Saints, Chargers and Vikings all remain on the schedule -- and they are all in the top 10 in terms of preventing QB fantasy points. We expected Cousins would need time working with a new offense while still recovering from a torn Achilles, but November is here. There are no more Buccaneers matchups to enjoy. This is a big week for figuring out Cousins' future value, and perhaps for WR Drake London as well.
Don't be surprised if ... the Rams boast top WR duo in the NFL
Yeah, things sure change quickly in the NFL. One week ago, Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp each had injury asterisks next to their names and the duo had combined to play only three games this season. Fantasy managers were hopeful, but hardly convinced of their value. At that time, there were four WR teammate duos among our top 20 in the rest-of-the-season rankings (Bengals, Eagles, Jets, Texans), but injuries were also affecting those as well, just as they had the Buccaneers. Plus, Tua Tagovailoa was returning, so perhaps the Dolphins enter the equation, too.
That was last week. Then, Nacua and Kupp both returned for last Thursday's game against the defensive-minded Vikings and combined for 34.2 PPR points -- and each rose to WR1 territory in our latest rest-of-season rankings. Is this fair? We may be concerned about future injuries, but then again, Cincinnati's Tee Higgins missed Week 8, Eagles A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have been compromised, and we hope Texans star Nico Collins returns from his hamstring injury soon. The Jets recently traded for Davante Adams, but -- shocker -- are underutilizing him.
Don't forget that Nacua finished fourth among all wide receivers in PPR points last season, averaging 17.6 per game. Kupp battled more injuries, but averaged 13.7 PPR points, still a top-20 figure. QB Matthew Stafford was certainly relevant for fantasy managers. One week ago, the Rams offense was RB Kyren Williams ... and little else. Now it may be the most dangerous offense in the sport.