"Don't you do it ... don't you dare ... just don't ... I can't even ... please don't ... work with me here, false football gods ... pleaaaaase ..."
If you've never muttered (screamed?) something along these lines when you were next up in a fantasy draft and hoping for a certain player, well, you're not doing it right.
Fantasy football drafts are all about collecting the best possible values throughout the draft, but let's not pretend there aren't those players we badly want on our squads. Whether it's a player on our favorite team, a sleeper no one has caught on to yet or this year's big breakout performer, these players add an extra level of excitement to the roster construction process.
I'm not going to beat around the bush here: Last year, I nailed this thing. Lamar Miller, Mark Ingram, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, Drew Brees, Devonta Freeman, John Brown, Eric Decker, Philip Rivers, Zach Ertz, Dion Lewis, Richard Rodgers, Jeremy Langford ... Bishop Sankey. OK, they can't all be winners.
That's going to be a tough (impossible?) act to follow, but I'll do my best. The below round-by-round analysis will give you an idea of what's going through my head on draft day. I have my rankings. I have my projections. I've set up tiers. And I certainly have a few of my favorite targets circled and in the queue.
The Core
Round 1 target: Antonio Brown
I know. I know. Who doesn't want the best player in fantasy? The reason I list Brown here is because there's a healthy debate out there as to the best position to draft from. My preference is as early as possible. If I can get my hands on Brown, I know I have one spot in my lineup filled with a player who owns both an elite floor and elite ceiling. Incredibly, Brown has finished just under half of his games as a top-10 fantasy wideout over the past two seasons.
I'd also be content with Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr. early in the first round, but I'm not overly fond of a late first-round pick, simply because there is a massive tier of players of similar value. Picking early allows you to grab an elite player and then pick up two of the remaining available standouts at the second/third-round turn.
Round 2 target: Mark Ingram
I list Ingram here because I think he's very undervalued and can actually be had in the third round of many 10- and 12-team drafts. Of course, as mentioned earlier, there's a hefty tier of similar talent that runs from the late stages of the first round through the middle of the third round. That said, you'll have plenty of options no matter where you are in the order. Take the best player available, regardless of whether it's a running back, wide receiver or Rob Gronkowski.
As for Ingram, he racked up 216 touches and 1,174 yards in only 12 games last season. Thanks to a massive role as a receiver, Ingram provided one of the highest floors in fantasy. He finished every week he was active as a top-30 fantasy back. Ingram's shaky durability (he has missed three or more games in four of his five seasons), is a slight concern, but he also leads the NFL in carries within 3 yards of the goal line during the past two years. Ingram's high-end week-to-week production makes him a fine second-round target -- and an absolute bargain in the third.
Round 3 targets: Sammy Watkins or LeSean McCoy
These won't be the first Buffalo Bills you read about today. Watkins and McCoy are both undervalued this year, primarily as a byproduct of injury-plagued 2015 campaigns. Watkins missed three games and a chunk of two others. During the 11 games he played in full, he posted 960 yards and eight touchdowns, which allowed him the sixth-most fantasy points at the position.
McCoy also played 11 full games and posted 1,150 yards and five touchdowns on 224 touches. He was fantasy's No. 3 scoring back during those weeks. Prior to a Week 15 injury, McCoy's worst fantasy week was a 26th-place finish in Week 1. If you come out of the third round of your draft with one of these Bills, you're sitting pretty.
Alshon Jeffery and Mike Evans are both falling to the third, as well, and are solid alternatives.
Round 4 target: Carlos Hyde
There are a lot of reasons to not like Hyde this season, and I certainly understand them. His team has a very rough schedule, he has missed 11 games due to injury over the past two seasons and Chip Kelly's offense progressively flamed out during his time in Philadelphia.
But too often we get caught up in the negatives and forget about the positives.
Above all else, Hyde is really good at football. Since entering the league in 2014, he's averaging 2.27 yards after contact per attempt, which trails only Marshawn Lynch and LeGarrette Blount for tops at the position (min. 150 attempts). Per Pro Football Focus, he forced 32 forced missed tackles on 115 attempts last season, which was the league's best rate among backs with more than 50 carries. Also, Hyde was at the disadvantage of facing a base defense 88 percent of the time last season, whereas Kelly's fast-paced offense saw base at only a 42 percent clip. Hyde is a candidate for 250-plus carries, and is a sneaky bet for 40 receptions.
Round 5 target: Eric Decker
Decker has finished three of the past four seasons as a top-10 fantasy receiver. Providing his owners with an incredibly high floor, Decker was the only receiver to post a top-30 fantasy week in each of his appearances last season. He handled one quarter of the Jets' targets, when active, and paced the NFL with 30 targets while within five yards of the end zone.
What's not to like? Maybe Decker's limited ceiling (he posted just one top-10 fantasy week last season), but otherwise, not much. Decker is a borderline WR1 who you can snatch up in the fifth round. Don't pass him up.
Round 6 target: Donte Moncrief
Andrew Luck played seven full games last season. During those weeks, Moncrief caught 32 passes for 351 yards and five touchdowns. He enjoyed a 19 percent target share, and sat 22nd at the position in fantasy points in those weeks.
During the weeks Luck was out, Moncrief caught 32 passes for 382 yards and one score. Moncrief was considered a very raw prospect when the Colts selected him in the third round of the 2014 draft. Now 23 years old and entering his first season as the team's clear-cut No. 2 receiver, Moncrief is an obvious breakout candidate. His 6-foot-2, 222-pound frame and 4.4 40-yard dash wheels provide you with the upside you want from your early-round picks.
The middle rounds
Round 6/7 target: Coby Fleener
Gronkowski and Jordan Reed aside, Fleener might have the highest ceiling of any tight end this season. But unlike Gronkowski and Reed, Fleener won't cost you an early-round pick.
Jimmy Graham averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game during his years as the starter in New Orleans. His production dipped to 6.6 per game in Seattle last year. Benjamin Watson averaged 4.2 FPPG during over a 10-year period before leaping to 7.3 with the Saints last year. Fleener averaged 5.3 FPPG in Indianapolis and is in line for a generous target share in New Orleans after signing a five-year, $36 million contract during the offseason. There's always risk when a player changes teams, but with Brees under center in the Saints' high-volume offense, Fleener appears in line for a career year. All things considered, he's my ideal starter at tight end this season.
Round 7 target: Danny Woodhead (or maybe Melvin Gordon)
If Woodhead is on the board in the seventh round, you'll have a hard time getting me to take someone else. The heavily used scat back has played two full seasons over the past three seasons. He was fantasy's No. 19 scoring back in 2013, and finished 11th last year. And that's just in non-PPR leagues.
He's certainly going to go a bit earlier, but Woodhead might end up being my most-owned player in PPR leagues this year. He finished 12th in PPR fantasy points in 2013 and was third last year. Primed for the same role he played last season, which included 182 touches and plenty of work near the goal line, Woodhead is a value as early as the fourth round of PPR leagues.
I also mention Gordon here because he's an intriguing post-hype sleeper, but may still be limited by an offense that scores most of its touchdowns through the air and uses Woodhead as its primary goal-line back. As noted in a recent article, however, players who struggle badly in the touchdown department on a big sample of work tend to rebound in a big way the next season. Gordon is especially worth a look here if you're weak at the position and need to take a shot at a high-upside player in the middle rounds.
Round 7 target: Eli Manning
If you play in a standard/casual league at ESPN, there's a good chance quarterbacks will come off the board earlier than at other sites. For example, Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers are currently being drafted in the second round. I certainly don't advise going that direction, which is why Manning is the first quarterback I've recommended. However, with more advanced players waiting longer than ever, there are values to be had. I've pounced on Newton in the fifth round a few times, and I recently took Luck as late as the seventh. That's not going to happen in most leagues, but the message here is to watch for values throughout your draft. If your tiers at other positions dry up, don't be afraid to pounce on a value at quarterback.
As for Manning specifically, he has posted four top-10 fantasy seasons during his 12-year career. That's not good, but consider that two of the four have come during Ben McAdoo's two seasons running the offense. Manning is one of the better talents at the position and will benefit from newcomer Sterling Shepard (more on him shortly) and possibly Victor Cruz; and of course, there's that guy Odell Beckham Jr. who is going in the first round. Manning's ceiling is sky-high in his third year in McAdoo's offense, and he will be available as late as the 10th round in competitive leagues.
Round 8 target: Gary Barnidge
I've noticed that there are values at the tight end position throughout drafts this year. It's hard to pass on Reed when he falls to the fourth round, but when you do, you often end up sitting there staring at the likes of Fleener, Delanie Walker and Tyler Eifert several rounds later. And if you pounce on one of them, suddenly the other positions are drying up and Barnidge sticks out like a sore thumb in the eighth or ninth round. I don't generally recommend taking two tight ends (especially in the first half of your draft), but if you wait at the spot, Barnidge is a terrific target. Despite dealing with some horrible quarterback play last season, the veteran broke out to the tune of 79 receptions, 1,043 yards and nine touchdowns. Only Gronkowski scored more fantasy points. Yes, the quarterback position is a problem, and the likes of Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon may chip away at his targets, but Barnidge will remain a mainstay in Cleveland's offensive attack.
Zach Ertz, Antonio Gates and -- if you're aiming for a high-ceiling breakout player -- Ladarius Green are also strong targets in Rounds 8 through 10.
Round 8 target: Kevin White
White is a raw prospect with one productive collegiate season on his résumé, and he missed his entire rookie campaign due to a shin injury. OK, so there's obviously risk here.
But there are so many reasons to be optimistic. For starters, White was the seventh overall pick in the 2015 draft for a reason. He's a freak athlete, standing 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, and ran a sub-4.4 40-yard dash. With Eddie Royal, Deonte Thompson and Joshua Bellamy his primary competition for snaps, White is guaranteed a near-every-down role. And Jay Cutler loves force-feeding his top targets the ball near the goal line. Consider that only Ben Roethlisberger (136) has thrown more passes into the confines of the end zone than Cutler (131) over the past three seasons. Only Rodgers (100 to 96) has more over the past two years. Brandon Marshall (64, 43 with Chicago) and Jeffery (53) pace all active players in end zone targets in the past three years.
Yes, White is unproven and will play second fiddle to Jeffery in a run-first offense. But the combination of his athletic profile, opportunity and eight-plus-touchdown upside makes him well worth a midround pick.
Round 9 target: Sterling Shepard
Shepard is my top-ranked rookie wide receiver. He's a bit more expensive in PPR formats, but is a very good value in the ninth or tenth round of 10- and 12-team leagues. The moment he was drafted, it was extremely apparent that he would immediately step in as an every-down player. The Giants had a third wideout on the field on 91 percent of their pass plays last season, and have ranked second in the category during each of McAdoo's two seasons. Shepard is a good bet for 70 receptions and is a sleeper to reach 90 as the team's primary possession receiver. The Manning-Shepard battery is one of my favorite ways to round out my starting lineup, but Shepard is going late enough in ESPN leagues that he could easily be your fifth receiver.
Shepard is "my guy" here, but Marvin Jones is also an extremely nice value in the ninth.
Round 10 target: Willie Snead
This time last year, Brandon Coleman was soaking up a ton of hype and Snead was a relative unknown. It took only until Week 2 for the 2014 undrafted free agent to take over as the Saints' No. 2 receiver. Despite missing a game and scoring only three touchdowns, Snead powered his way to a 36th-place finish at the position, with 69 catches and 984 yards. Snead is now the team's clear-cut starter opposite Brandin Cooks and, considering he's only 23 years old, we likely haven't seen his best work.
Yes, rookie Michael Thomas and the aforementioned Fleener are in the mix, but they don't figure to see many more targets than Marques Colston and Watson did last season. Snead is a terrific receiver, good blocker and in a great situation. Snatch him up in the 10th round of 12-team drafts, and as late as the 12th in 10-teamers.
If Snead is gone, a now-healthy Vincent Jackson is a strong alternative.
Round 11 target: Tyrod Taylor
Taylor was a relative unknown prior to last season -- his first as a starter -- which helps explain why he's being undervalued this year despite producing at such a high level. Taylor averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game (ninth-highest in the league) and finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in half of his appearances (sixth highest).
Taylor sports a high floor as a result of his rushing ability (only Newton had more rushing yards among quarterbacks last year) and produces a lot of splash plays thanks to a propensity for throwing the deep ball. Taylor is a fringe starter in 10- and 12-team leagues, and you can get him in the double-digit rounds.
The late-round fliers
Round 12 target: Bilal Powell
When the Jets signed Matt Forte to a three-year, $12 million contract during the offseason, the thought was that he'd be the team's clear starter at running back. However, the very next day, the team re-signed Powell to a three-year, $11.25 million deal. If that isn't enough of an indication that New York values the two players similarly, consider how heavily Powell was used last season. During the nine games he played in full, Powell averaged 7.3 carries and a massive 6.8 targets per game. He sat 10th at the position in fantasy points during the span (fifth in PPR). Forte might get the starts, but this is a two-headed backfield.
Also, during his eight seasons with the Bears, Forte was on the field for 2,522 snaps, which easily leads the position during the span. If the veteran takes a step back, Powell could easily take control of the Jets' backfield. He's a steal in the late rounds.
Aforementioned Saints rookie Thomas sports WR2 upside and is also available in the 12th.
Round 13 target: Devin Funchess
Funchess was on the field for only 37 percent of the Panthers' snaps as a rookie, but he certainly made an impact when called upon down the stretch. Funchess caught his first career touchdown in Week 9 and, despite accruing only 42 targets, was fantasy's No. 32 scoring receiver from that game forward.
Kelvin Benjamin is back from a torn ACL, but Funchess is the heavy favorite to operate as the team's second starter at the position. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound 22-year-old figures to be a boom/bust fantasy asset, but his sky-high ceiling makes him a strong late-round flier. This may sound insane, but it's not inconceivable that Funchess will overtake Benjamin as the team's top receiver this season.
Miss on Funchess? Travis Benjamin is worth a look as the new lid lifter in San Diego.
Round 14-16 targets: High-ceiling handcuffs and breakout candidates
We're assuming a 16-round draft here, so this is the point where league rules come into play. If you're drafting using the ESPN standard settings, you'll be forced to select both a defense and a kicker. Fine. I'll cover my favorite targets at those spots later.
However, if you're not, this is a spot where you can gain a leg up on your competition. Most of your league-mates are going to select at least one kicker and defense and let them rot on their roster until Week 1. Why? I have no idea. Don't be like your league-mates. In lieu of those positions, gather up handcuffs at other positions (especially running back) and wait for injuries to strike during the preseason. If you have the Rams defense rostered and Ingram tears his ACL, you have the Rams defense. If you have Tim Hightower rostered and Ingram tears his ACL, you have a fringe RB1. Oh, and you can always drop two players and pick up a defense with a good matchup and a decent kicker just prior to Week 1. By the way, if your league is hosted here at ESPN (why wouldn't it be?), one way around the draft restrictions is to cut your kicker and defense after the draft, and pick up one of these high-upside players.
Now that my disclaimer is out of the way, here are the players you should be considering, as well as the round in which each player is currently being selected in ESPN 12-team leagues:
Round 14: Devontae Booker, Will Fuller, Dorial Green-Beckham
Unlike a few other rookie backs we will discuss, Booker has very little competition for a massive role in the event of a C.J. Anderson injury. Fuller is running with the starters in Houston and figures to provide boom/bust flex production if he plays a significant role. Green-Beckham is far from guaranteed an every-down role, but if he earns a starting job, there's massive breakout potential here.
Round 15: Sammie Coates, Phillip Dorsett, Josh Doctson
Coates is generating a ton of offseason hype and rightfully so with Martavis Bryant done for the year. Coates is the heavy favorite for the team's No. 3 receiver gig and very well could blow by Markus Wheaton early this season. Dorsett will be on the field for most Colts passing plays as the team's No. 3 receiver. Like Fuller, he's likely to be a boom/bust producer, but could score six or seven touchdowns as a field stretcher in a high-scoring, pass-heavy offense. Doctson won't play much early on, but is a Pierre Garcon or DeSean Jackson injury away from WR3 status.
Round 16: Jerick McKinnon, C.J. Prosise, Jordan Howard
The 2015 season was a busy one for backup running backs, but Adrian Peterson held up for 16 games, which left McKinnon without a fair shot to emerge. He has some standalone value in PPR leagues and RB1 upside if 31-year-old Peterson misses time. A hamstring injury has hampered Prosise's offseason reps, but he's expected to handle passing-down duties in Seattle, and could do more if Thomas Rawls falters. Howard will be the hot add if (when?) Jeremy Langford can't get the job done as lead back in Chicago this season.
Undrafted: Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, Jaelen Strong, DeAndre Washington, Paul Perkins, Tim Hightower, Spencer Ware, Keith Marshall, Alex Collins, Ka'Deem Carey
As if we needed more proof that the league is as deep as ever with talent, check out this group of players currently going undrafted in ESPN leagues. It's shocking to see Agholor here, as he's both a starter and was a first-round pick last year. Perriman (knee) won't play much early, but it may not be long before he's pushing for an every-down role. He's the Ravens' best athlete at receiver. Washington, Perkins, Collins and Marshall are intriguing rookie backs on teams with a shaky situation at the position. Hightower and Ware are the next men up behind Ingram and Jamaal Charles, respectively. Like Howard, Carey will be a candidate for big role if Langford struggles.
Defense /special teams
OK, so you have to pick a defense and kicker. Who are your best bets? Across the industry, I think the Bengals are underappreciated and make for a solid target. Here at ESPN, we have them ranked high, however, so they're being scooped up in the 10th round. The Raiders, Patriots and Vikings units are generally available in the final two or so rounds and should be on your radar if you're eyeing a long-term option. If you're streaming (usually the wise route), get ahead of the competition by considering units with a light Week 1 matchup. The Vikings (vs. Titans), Rams (vs. 49ers) and Eagles (vs. Browns) are your best bets (in that order) among units available in the last few rounds.
By the way, the rule of thumb is to spend your second-to-last draft pick on a defense and last on a kicker. But if you're in a league where you know that pretty much every other team is going to follow that strategy, beat your opponents to the punch and grab these positions a round early. You'll have a leg up and the same players you were considering in the 14th round will still be there in the 16th.
Kicker
It's hard to get too excited about a kicker, but my favorite targets this year are Dan Bailey and Josh Brown. Bailey is the league's most accurate kicker since he entered the league in 2011 and the Dallas offense will be much better this season. He's going in the 12th round, however, so Brown is the cheaper late-round target. Brown's 93.1 percent field goal conversion rate is third best in the league over the past two years and serves as the cherry on top if you followed my road map and scooped up Manning as your quarterback.
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So, there you have it. My recipe for a 2016 fantasy football championship. Remember, this piece should not serve as your only draft board. It's simply the players I've found myself targeting and, with ADP in mind, that I would love to have on my squad this year.