I recently explained how regression to the mean helps explain why NFL players are unable to sustain high touchdown production. As it turns out, regression to the mean goes both ways, which means some players are likely to rebound this season from a low touchdown total in 2015.
During the 2007 to 2014 seasons, there were 55 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than seven touchdowns on 70-plus offensive touches (carries plus receptions) before touching the ball at least 70 times the very next season. Of those 55, 42 (76.4 percent) scored more touchdowns the next season. Focusing in on the 20 players in that group who scored fewer than five touchdowns during the first year, 18 (90 percent) scored more touchdowns the next season.
We see similar results if we run this test on running backs. There were 34 instances in which a back failed to eclipse six touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing 200 touches again the next season. Of those 34 instances, 27 (or 79 percent) scored more touchdowns the next year. Interestingly, there were six backs who failed to eclipse two touchdowns in the first year, but each scored at least five the next season. Even more interestingly, the average second-year touchdown total was 8.0.
In this piece, I'll be referencing OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it's how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each player below's 2015 usage tells us that we should expect an increase in scoring production from them this season.
Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2015 OTD: 8.3 | TDs: 3
It would be hard to find a player who had worse luck in the scoring department than Evans last season. Jameis Winston's top target scored three times on 148 targets after scoring on 12 of 118 targets as a rookie. The big difference was efficiency near the goal line; Evans caught a league-high 10 of 19 end zone targets in 2014, but only 2 of 15 last season. Evans' target share is unlikely to decrease this season, and his 6-foot-5, 231-pound frame assures he'll continue to see plenty of work near the end zone. Evans is a sleeper to lead the position in touchdowns this season.
2016 Projection: 8 TDs
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
2015 OTD: 4.7 | TDs: 2
Ertz has been heavily involved over the past two seasons, but it simply hasn't led to a full-on fantasy breakout. The reason? Touchdowns (or lack thereof). Since 2014, Ertz ranks fifth among tight ends in both targets (199) and yardage (1555) but is tied for 29th in touchdowns (five). The good news for Ertz's prospects is that opportunity hasn't been the issue -- he sits eighth at the position in end zone targets (14) over the past two seasons. He caught just one of seven each year. As was the case with Travis Kelce in Kansas City when Doug Pederson was offensive coordinator, Ertz is a good bet for a major role in Pederson's offense as Eagles head coach this season. Expect a career-high in the touchdown department.
2016 Projection: 6 TDs
2015 OTD: 7.3 | TDs: 5
Landry is a slot receiver who sees most of his targets near the line of scrimmage, but he's utilized near the goal line more often than his four receiving scores (7.1 OTD) suggest. He racked up nine end zone targets (tied for 23rd among wide receivers) but caught only one last season. Landry ran his other three scores in from distances of 4, 6 and 37 yards. Landry was targeted 22 times while inside the opponent's 10-yard line, which ranked 12th at the position. Also involved as a rusher, Landry scored from 22 yards out on one of his 18 carries, none of which came in the red zone. Landry's role may change some in new coach Adam Gase's offense, but he's a good bet to improve his touchdown total in 2016.
2016 Projection: 6 TDs
Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers
2015 OTD: 2.2 | TDs: 0
In the introduction to this piece, I mentioned that each of the six 200-plus-touch backs who failed to eclipse two touchdowns went on to score at least five times (average 8.0) the very next season. Three players fit that bill during the 2015 campaign: Gordon (217 touches, 0 TD), Giovani Bernard (203 touches, 2 TD) and Alfred Morris (212 touches, 1 TD). Gordon ranked 19th at the position in touches, but of the 72 backs who managed at least 67 touches, he was the only one who didn't find the endzone. Although bad luck was part of the problem, so was opportunity. Gordon was limited to one carry inside the opponent's five-yard line (Danny Woodhead had five) and only three additional tries inside the 10. The closest he was to the goal line on a target was the 16-yard line. The Chargers have scored 84 percent of their offensive touchdowns through the air over the past four years, and they aren't afraid to use scat back Woodhead near the goal line. Touchdowns may continue to elude Gordon, but he should still be able to near a half dozen scores this season.
2016 Projection: 5 TDs
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
2015 OTD: 4.3 | TDs: 2
The aforementioned Bernard is a good candidate for a boost in scoring production this season. Although Jeremy Hill was (and is) the team's primary goal-line back, Bernard still managed 13 carries inside the opponent's 10-yard line last season (tied for 17th). Of course, Bernard failed to score on any of those carries, with his two touchdown runs coming from 13 and 17 yards out. Bernard is very busy as a receiver but does most of that work between the 20s. He accrued just two targets in the red zone last season, which helps explain why he didn't catch a single touchdown. Bernard is unlikely to ever be a good source of touchdowns, but operating in the offense that paced the league with 37 carries inside the 10-yard line last season certainly helps his cause.
2016 Projection: 5 TDs
Jacksonville Jaguars running backs
2015 OTD: 14.6 | TDs: 6
In Part 1 of this two-part series, I projected a sharp dip in touchdown production for both Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns this season. Those touchdowns won't simply disappear for the Jaguars. The team's running backs will benefit from a more balanced overall attack, as well as better efficiency near the goal line. Considering that 88 percent of the team's offensive touchdowns came through the air (second-highest in the league), it may surprise you to know that Jaguars running backs combined to carry the ball 10 times from the opponent's 1-yard line last season -- that trailed only Arizona for tops in the league. However, T.J. Yeldon (1-for-3), Denard Robinson (1-for-3) and Toby Gerhart (0-for-4) combined to score on only two of the tries, which ranked 19th. Enter Chris Ivory, whose 32 carries within five yards of the goal line pace the entire NFL over the past two years. Ivory led the NFL with eight carries from the opponent's 1-yard line last season and scored on three. We can't reasonably expect massive touchdown totals for Ivory and Yeldon, but it's a near certainty the duo will combine to exceed the six scores the team's running backs totaled in 2015.
2016 Projection: 11 TDs
2015 OTD: 6.9 | TDs: 4
Jeffery missed seven games but still finished tied for eighth in the league in end zone targets (16) last season. In fact, Brandon Marshall is the only active player with more end zone targets over the past three seasons (64) than Jeffery (53). Jeffery caught seven of 19 end zone targets in 2014 but only four of 16 last season. A target hog with a 6-foot-3 frame, Jeffery has double-digit upside in the touchdown department. Jeffery is a solid WR1 option who can be had in the second round of most drafts.
2016 Projection: 8 TDs
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
2015 OTD: 4.7 | TDs: 1
Poor efficiency and injury woes led to a rough 2015 campaign for Adams, but some of the blame also belongs on unfortunate luck in the scoring department. Adams was limited to one touchdown on 92 targets. His only score came on one of his seven end zone targets, and Adams failed to find the end zone on eight additional targets inside the opponent's 10-yard line. Adams' 2015 struggles could lead to a demotion this season, but he remains the early favorite for the No. 3 gig in a high-scoring Packers offense that relies on three-wide sets more than any other team does. He's a post-hype sleeper in deep leagues.
2016 Projection: 4 TDs