As we enter NFL Week 6 -- already more than a third of the way through the fantasy football regular season -- we now have a much larger sample size of data and game tape to review. Usually, it tells a story in terms of how players are being utilized. We can look at situational tendencies, run/pass ratios or how volume is being distributed through the call sheet, all of which is quite useful when judging fantasy value.
But this information we collect can also show us how team-specific trends and schemes are impacting fantasy production, both positively and negatively. And that's what I want to focus on today, because we have some big-name players who aren't seeing the anticipated weekly volume, or who simply are limited due to their current offensive structure.
Here are five players and/or situations to look at, starting with the quarterback who was projected to lead all signal-callers in fantasy points this season.
Josh Allen's early-season roller coaster
Allen's 18.8 fantasy PPG puts him at QB5 thus far, but we know better. Yes, Allen has recorded two games with 30 or more points. And that's why you drafted him. Allen has the rare physical tools -- as a runner and thrower -- to produce breakout weeks. However, Allen has also posted three games of fewer than 15 points this season, and he just went 9-of-30 passing in the Week 5 loss to the Texans. Rough.
Remember, Allen is lacking a go-to perimeter target who can uncover (consistently) versus quality competition. That matters. And tight end Dalton Kincaid hasn't emerged as that seam-stretching matchup option in the middle of the field, as he has yet to log a game with more than 50 yards receiving. On top of that, Allen is averaging 5.2 carries per game, with only nine designed rushes this season, and he has just two rushing touchdowns -- the same number as Baker Mayfield.
If you roster Allen, as I do in one league, you aren't going to sit him. No chance. There's just too much upside to his game. With some of the Bills' current offensive limitations, however, it's OK to lower your expectations for Allen, based on the weekly matchup, until we see more consistent fantasy production. And this week's matchup isn't easy, as he'll face the Jets' defense on "Monday Night Football".
Bijan Robinson's low run-game usage
Through five weeks, the Falcons' offensive identity has been built on the pass game out of three-WR sets. In fact, Atlanta has attempted 178 passes this season, with 169 from 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers), which is the second most in the league. That's a positive for managers of Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts. And that makes Ray-Ray McCloud III a streaming option this week versus Carolina, too.
But this pass-heavy approach has also impacted Robinson's game on the ground, as the Falcons rank next-to-last in rushing attempts per game (21.6) and last with just one rushing touchdown on the season. That's it. Robinson, who is averaging 13.5 carries per game, has also seen Tyler Allgeier cut into his workload recently (21 carries in the past three games). And without the scoring opportunities -- Robinson has two rushes inside the 5-yard line -- it's easy to see why the run-game production hasn't spiked yet.
Yes, Robinson is still seeing usage as a receiver, as he has run 22.2 routes per game and caught 18 of 20 targets for 151 yards. But it's clear, at least after five weeks of the season, that his ceiling has been lowered -- to an extent -- based on the Falcons' offensive tendencies, which is reflected by his 13.3 fantasy PPG.
Can this pattern change for Robinson? Sure. Tendencies and playcalling can shift during the season. We see that all the time. And that's why I would tell Robinson managers to hold tight here. Don't take the bait on a subpar trade offer. Instead, bet on the talent and a bump in Robinson's overall usage as an offensive playmaker.
Amari Cooper's descending value
Cooper's value is tied to the play of Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson. And the tape on Watson right now is a tough watch.
Watson's field vision is hazy at best. He's making poor decisions, and he lacks decisive mobility. In fact, through five games Watson's total QBR of 21.0 is the lowest in the league, and he's averaging just 4.8 YPA.
Now, Cooper did post 27.3 fantasy points back in Week 3 versus the Giants, because he is still an upper-tier route runner with the vertical juice to get loose down the field. However, Cooper has three games this season with fewer than 10 points. And with the erratic play from Watson in a Cleveland offense lacking motion to dress up the play-action pass game and solid answers against the blitz, you are really chasing Cooper's ceiling every game. And that's why I have him down in the WR3 range for this week's matchup against the Eagles.
Breece Hall's declining receiving totals
After scoring 18 or more points in each of his first three games, Hall has averaged just 5.3 PPG in back-to-back losses versus the Broncos and Jets. His rushing numbers dipped again (1.4 YPC) and he caught 5-of-9 targets for only 28 yards.
Yes, the Jets actually get a positive run-game matchup Monday night against a Bills defense allowing a league-worst 5.2 YPC. And maybe that's a "get right" game for Hall on the ground, even with rookie Braelon Allen cutting into his touches. But much tougher rushing matchups loom in Weeks 7 and 8 (@PIT, @NE), so Hall managers need to see his pass-game deployment shift here.
Hall has just one catch on a vertical target this season, and in a Jets West Coast system that looks archaic to me, veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers' average time before pass sits at 2.52 seconds (third fastest in the league). The ball is being delivered quickly, due to Rodgers' diminished mobility and matchups versus pressure defenses, which has limited Hall to underneath concepts and a target share of only 12.8% on 118 routes run this season.
To maximize Hall's fantasy value, he must be utilized as a true dual-threat back. And amid multiple coaching changes in New York, the hope here is that the Jets make the necessary offensive adjustments, in terms of using more pre-snap movement and designing specific concepts to target Hall as a receiver. But until we see those changes, Hall will remain a boom/bust RB1 for me.
D'Andre Swift's impact on the Bears' game plan
Over the past two games, Swift has emerged as a playmaker in the Bears' offense, with scoring upside and big-play ability, and that has led to a more balanced call script for rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.
Swift has averaged 24.7 fantasy PPG during this two-game stretch. The volume is up, too, as Swift has seen at least 23 touches in both games, and he's caught all nine of his targets for 119 yards. The run game is now creating a more controlled tempo for this Bears offense, and Swift's ability to produce as an underneath outlet, with open-field vision on screens, has given Williams a high-percentage target in the pass game.
Williams, who played his best game as a pro in the Week 5 win over the Panthers (23.56 points), is one of my top streaming options at the position for the Week 6 game versus the Jags in London, and Swift has climbed the ranks to enter the lower-tier RB1 discussion. Plus, with some positive upcoming matchups after the Week 7 bye (@WAS, @ARI), both Williams and Swift are primed to play productive roles in a Bears offense that is building a foundation.