Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true... don't be surprised!
Don't be surprised if... Daniel Jones outscores Aaron Rodgers this season
Fantasy managers wanted no part of Daniel Jones for this season because, well, last season went rather poorly both performance-wise and health-wise, and there was little indication we could trust him statistically. The addition of rookie superstar Malik Nabers has clearly altered perceptions, but Nabers (concussion) was out for Week 5 against the Seattle Seahawks. Who would want Jones in fantasy without -- probably not a reach -- the Giants offense's prime player?
Jones threw for 257 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, adding 38 rushing yards, in his best fantasy effort since the 2022 season, when he improbably finished as a top-10 QB thanks to mainly his rushing numbers. Hey, we don't care how you become a top-10 QB, just do it. Jones did it on Sunday, way across the country against a seemingly viable defense, and he did it with Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson and rookie RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. He won the game and scored 22.08 PPR fantasy points. Few expected it.
Jones gets to face the wobbly Cincinnati Bengals pass defense in Week 6 and, while we don't know yet if Nabers will be able to suit up, perhaps we need to start thinking about the QB again. Few were thinking about Jones a month ago, but things changed, and not only because of Nabers. Jones showed improved downfield accuracy we hadn't seen in years. As I have written with Washington Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels, all the NFC East quarterbacks get to face the terrible NFC East defenses a bunch. We should be intrigued. The NFC East and North take the lead for top divisions for fantasy quarterbacks.
Of course, the other side of this prediction is that Rodgers continues to struggle, and this really isn't about him being 40 years old. Some older quarterbacks don't look or play, well, old. The Jets aren't capably protecting Rodgers, but he isn't making the throws, either. This isn't about lacking potential addition Davante Adams. Garrett Wilson is awesome. Allen Lazard and Mike Williams have enough skills. The Jets really need offensive line help, but they also need Rodgers to play better. It seems doubtful a coaching change is going to greatly aid Rodgers -- or this offense.
There are 28 qualified quarterbacks averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt ... and then comes Rodgers at No. 29. The only passers with more than 75 attempts that have been worse are a rookie (Bo Nix), a fill-in (Jacoby Brissett) and a guy making so much money he can't be benched (Deshaun Watson). Rodgers is completing only 61% of his passes (26th) and he tossed three interceptions in London on Sunday. The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers are up next. Trading for Adams surely couldn't hurt, but fantasy managers trading for Rodgers in the hopes it fixes everything may be disappointed.
Don't be surprised if... Nick Chubb is the only RB in Ohio that approaches 1,000 rushing yards
Even leaving aside financial/contract matters, it is hardly a reach to call Watson the league's worst quarterback, and defenses know they can send constant pressure because he is throwing the football inaccurately all over the place. This isn't about Watson, though. You (should) know to avoid him in fantasy, even though he is rostered in a generous 26.7% of leagues. However, the Browns have run the football effectively, averaging 4.4 yards per rush, ranking in the middle of the league. It is misleading, though, since top rusher Jerome Ford averages 5.2 yards per attempt.
Chubb, who suffered a torn MCL and ACL more than 12 months ago, stands to change things when he debuts this season, and it might happen this week against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that struggles to deal with the run (5.1 yards per rush against). Chubb is practicing and, according to observers, looks like his old self, which is significant. Chubb is rostered in 78.7% of ESPN standard leagues. His pending success -- Chubb ran for 1,525 yards in 2022 -- might even help his struggling quarterback a bit. Get Chubb if you can.
As for the other part of the prediction, the Bengals boast a pair of highly-rostered running backs in Zack Moss and Chase Brown. Since neither has averaged 50 rushing yards per game, this Bengals tandem might frustrate fantasy managers looking for an edge, but it works for the team, with no indication of it changing. Cincinnati's problems are mainly on defense, and it seems unlikely Moss or Brown will suddenly pile on the rushing yards. But Chubb sure can.
Don't be surprised if... Joe Flacco leads the Indianapolis Colts -- and fantasy managers -- to playoffs
The Colts are in a bit of a rough spot here because it is clear their backup, Flacco, can still throw the football and lead an offense quite effectively. He led the Browns -- with mainly the same roster as Watson -- to the playoffs last season with one multi-touchdown passing effort after another, and myriad fantasy managers enjoyed his impact as well. In fact, after completing 33 of 44 passes (75%) for 359 yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars last week (26.56 PPR fantasy points), Flacco has two or more TD passes in all seven of his regular season games played since last season.
Of course, the young and exciting Anthony Richardson appears to be the Colts' QB of the future, and his upside -- statistical and otherwise -- is massive. So much so that many fantasy managers made him a top-five QB selection this season, based on so little action in his rookie campaign. Richardson, in glimpses, can make incredible downfield throws and has innate running skills. Perhaps he isn't Lamar Jackson or Jayden Daniels, but comparisons to former MVP Cam Newton seem reasonable.
The Colts need to find out not only whether Richardson can show consistency as a thrower and runner, but whether he can stay on the field. Richardson has played in only eight of 22 games over his short Colts career, and he finished only five of those eight games. Fantasy managers run a big risk of activating Richardson, and the lack of durability is a big reason more cautious managers faded him in drafts and perhaps find it difficult to count on him even when he is active and starting. There is such a wide range of statistical outcomes, and some do not wish to deal with this. Who is more likely to reach 20 PPR points? It must be Flacco, right? Who is also more likely to deliver a mere 5 PPR points? It is not Flacco. Tough call for the Colts here, perhaps starting in Week 6 against the Tennessee Titans, but is it a tough call for you?