Fantasy football managers overthink just about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense.
Take a deep breath. It is fantasy football. Make practical decisions on lineups, trades and foods for the tailgating party and things will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn't believe the things fantasy managers overthink. Well, you're (presumably) a fantasy manager. OK, so perhaps you would.
Don't give up on Mark Andrews being a relevant fantasy producer
The Week 1 tight end matchup between the Chiefs and Ravens, in which each defense seemed quite determined to make sure the opposing star tight end would not beat them, is being misjudged. A frustrated and perhaps physically compromised Andrews faced constant double-teams, and QB Lamar Jackson was forced to look elsewhere, or he took off running. Absent any semblance of open wide receivers and reasonable time in the pocket to look for anyone -- the offensive line was overwhelmed -- Jackson looked for TE Isaiah Likely, a big fellow with the skills of a wide receiver. He was open, Jackson found him and the Ravens nearly won the game with that combination.
Do remain open to the possibility Isaiah Likely ends up a top-10 TE
In fact, this might be, well, likely. One team with two top-10 tight ends? As if. But it has happened before, notably the 2011 Patriots. Last year's Falcons, with Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith, each finished top 15 at the position (though few were pleased with them, which reinforces the point that it is a low bar). Put simply, Likely doesn't need to do so much to be a top-10 tight end. He doesn't need another monster game, though he certainly might do so. Only 11 tight ends scored 150 PPR points last season. That's 8.8 points per game. Andrews, had he not sat out games, would have gotten there, as he averaged 13.5 PPR points. Likely already has a cool 26.1. He needs to average only 7.7 PPR points the rest of the way to get 150 points.
This speaks to how weak the tight end position is. It just doesn't take much to be relevant. Likely is relevant, perhaps more than borderline playable options such as the Steelers' Pat Freiermuth and the Bears' Cole Kmet. I like Likely, but don't misread the situation and assume monster attention/numbers each week, either.
Don't fall in love with J.K. Dobbins quite yet
Let's be optimistic that Chargers reclamation project Dobbins, who played in 15 games as a rookie in 2020 and a total of nine over the next three seasons, stays on the field. He is so talented, and nobody wants to see injuries derail a young player, or any player. Root for this. Dobbins deserves success, and he looked awesome on several plays against the overwhelmed Raiders in Week 1, breaking off 46- and 61-yard runs. The rest of the time, he did little, but his former Ravens teammate Gus Edwards is also a factor in this obvious timeshare.
Edwards gets the short-yardage stuff, the easy touchdowns. Dobbins runs outside. This can work. Dobbins earning three targets piqued my interest. He did nothing with those three catches, gaining four yards, but if the Chargers utilize him as a receiver, it changes everything. The Ravens rarely threw to Dobbins. Rookie Kimani Vidal caught passes in college. Hmm. If this becomes a three-headed running back situation, it costs Dobbins more than it does Edwards.
Do reevaluate the Colts' passing game
Michael Pittman Jr. caught 88, 99 and 109 passes over the past three seasons, averaging better than 1,000 receiving yards per year, doing so with a disappointing collection of previously dumped quarterbacks (Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Gardner Minshew, c'mon!) who hardly set him up for success. What they did was throw to Pittman a lot, and fantasy managers loved it. He is a possession receiver, and a steady one, but it was little surprise he caught only four passes -- at a brutal 3.9 yards per target -- in Week 1.
Possession receivers have value, but young star QB Anthony Richardson has a home run arm. He wants to throw deep and make magical plays, and he did that with a pair of jaw-dropping touchdown throws to Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin. Eventually, Josh Downs is going to fit in wonderfully for this tactic when healthy. Pittman isn't running deep routes. He also isn't flirting with 100 catches anymore. This new Colts offense doesn't have that kind of patience. I sense we will be ranking Pittman as a WR3 from now on, so be prepared.
Don't overrate that mess of a Falcons opener
This can go in several directions. New QB Kirk Cousins played poorly, perhaps not fully healed from his Achilles injury, but things will improve. Cousins has a track record, and even in a new place, we should trust it. He should have more success against Philadelphia on Monday night. Most of us can be patient with Cousins, who isn't a fantasy starter until the bye weeks anyway. WR Drake London should be fine. RB Bijan Robinson should see volume. Kyle Pitts, however, is being overly trusted. Sure, he scored a touchdown on his measly three targets. The Steelers didn't cover him on the short touchdown -- a blown coverage. As noted earlier, Pitts doesn't need to be Tony Gonzalez to end up a top-10 TE, but he's no lock, either. He needs more volume. I hope he gets it and has a monster season, but we should remain skeptical.
Do consider adding Ryan Tannehill, before he signs somewhere, in deeper formats
Packers QB Jordan Love tore his MCL, and he is not going on injured reserve. The Packers are confident he returns in a month or less. Perhaps this occurs. Backup QB Malik Willis is a runner who didn't have success in that role for the Titans, and nobody ever thought he had an accurate arm. Don't expect much from Willis. RB Josh Jacobs might run the ball 30 times.
Tannehill is available, but probably desires a better situation, one in which he starts games beyond September. Can we assume Love returns fully healthy? We hope so. It's more than that, though. Quarterbacks drop with injuries, minor and major, all the time, and Tannehill, as recently as 2021, was more than competent for fantasy. He was the No. 7 fantasy QB in 2020, and No. 12 the following season, rushing for seven touchdowns each year. Look, Tannehill isn't great. He's 35. But did you roster Joe Flacco last season? Perhaps you don't want to raise your hand, but we see you. Tannehill might or might not play this season, with the Packers or anyone else, but in redraft superflex formats, do you invest in him or Willis, thinking not about Week 2, but October? What about Patriots rookie Drake Maye? Quarterback is far more important in superflex/2QB formats, so we must think differently, securing backups and players not even affiliated with teams. Yet.
Don't pay attention to preseason conspiracies
NFL coaches/management are hesitant to play their star offensive players in preseason games, and for good reason. The injury risk for a few snaps is not close to worth it. However, when some players underperform in Week 1, we hear the usual silly, grumbling criticism that it happened because they did not play any preseason snaps.
Everyone should ignore this noise in future seasons. Pay no attention to who does and who does not suit up for an August game because, for veteran players, a series or two in mid-August has no effect on September performance. It doesn't matter. You never hear about the offensive players who sat out the preseason and thrived in Week 1. There's good reason for this. It's lazy and irrelevant. Jalen Hurts didn't commit multiple turnovers in Brazil because he played nary a preseason snap. He committed turnovers because he is Jalen Hurts.