Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 2, which kicked off Thursday with the Bills at the Dolphins.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys
Projected Score: Cowboys 23, Saints 18
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave
Rashid Shaheed hauled in a 59-yard touchdown in the opener, but he was limited to just two catches for 14 yards on his other three targets in the game. The latter isn't overly concerning, as the Saints won by 37 points and, when all was said and done, Shaheed played on 66% of snaps, handled 18% of targets and was responsible for a career-high 45% of New Orleans' air yards. This week's matchup is tougher, but Shaheed is very much a flex option as one of Derek Carr's primary targets.
Over/Under: 41.4 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 69% (5th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Projected Score: Lions 27, Buccaneers 21
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Rachaad White, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Sam LaPorta
I hesitate to anoint Jameson Williams a lineup lock just yet, but he'd be a tough man to bench after posting a 5-121-1 receiving line on his nine Week 1 targets. Williams played on a career-high 85% of snaps, and his nine targets was two more than his previous career best. Williams is cemented as a primary target in Detroit's high-scoring offense and, even against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed the fewest WR fantasy points in Week 1, he's very much on the WR3 radar.
Over/Under: 48.5 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 72% (4th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers
Projected Score: Colts 22, Packers 21
Lineup locks: Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Michael Pittman Jr.
Jordan Love is out this week, which sets up Malik Willis as Green Bay's starting quarterback. This is a massive concern for the Packers' pass catchers, as Willis has yet to throw for even 100 yards in any single game. The 2022 third-round pick has played only three full games, but he has zero TD passes on 67 attempts and his efficiency has been atrocious (5.2 YPA, 52% completion rate). Willis, acquired out of desperation in August, figures to be handing the ball to Jacobs throughout most of Sunday's game. Jayden Reed, who totaled 171 yards and two scores against the Eagles, adds value with his legs and is the only Packers WR worth considering for your lineup.
Over/Under: 43.9 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 54% (15th highest)
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
Projected Score: Jets 25, Titans 18
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Calvin Ridley
Tony Pollard was the Titans' clear lead back in Week 1, totaling 16 carries and four targets on 38 snaps. Tyjae Spears (four carries, five targets) was limited to 27 snaps, though he did run one more route than Pollard (15-14). The gap in touches between the two should be a bit closer moving forward, but even still, Pollard can safely be viewed as the better fantasy option of the pair. He's on the RB2 radar against a Jets defense that was destroyed by Jordan Mason on Monday night.
Over/Under: 43 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Jets 72% (3rd highest)
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Projected Score: 49ers 27, Vikings 18
Lineup locks: Jordan Mason, Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle
Christian McCaffrey was sidelined in Week 1, but the 49ers' backfield hardly missed a beat. Mason stepped in and played on 81% of snaps, totaling 28 carries and one target. That usage allowed the 2022 UDFA to collect 152 yards, one touchdown and a top-five fantasy outing. With McCaffrey expected to sit out for another game, Mason is very much in the RB1 mix. Expect fewer carries, but perhaps a slight boost in targets, which should allow him around 20 opportunities.
Aaron Jones doesn't quite make "lineup lock" status despite an impressive Week 1 showing in which he totaled 109 yards (16 touches) and found the end zone. Of course, the big day came against the Giants' shaky defense and, having played on just 53% of snaps, he was operating in a timeshare with Ty Chandler (37%), who had eight carries and three targets. Life will be much tougher against the elite 49ers defense in Week 2. Jones is merely a fringe RB2.
Over/Under: 44.3 (7th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 80% (2nd highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots
Projected Score: Seahawks 22, Patriots 19
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Rhamondre Stevenson, DK Metcalf
In Week 1, the distribution of New England's WR snaps was K.J. Osborn with 39, DeMario Douglas 38, Tyquan Thornton 37 and Ja'Lynn Polk 35. To further complicate matters, Douglas and Thornton led the way in routes run (18 each), with Polk (15) next and snap leader Osborn (14) last. Osborn was the only one to clear three targets (he had six), and none of the four reached 30 yards. This is obviously a situation to avoid.
Over/Under: 40.6 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 61% (11th highest)
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
Projected Score: Commanders 23, Giants 20
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin
The Commanders' RB deployment was about as expected in Week 1. Robinson played on 32 snaps (57%) and soaked up most of the carries (12) along with some receiving work (four targets on seven routes). Austin Ekeler played on 28 snaps (50%) and was limited to just two carries, but he also chipped in with four targets on eight routes. The usage led to a rushing score (and better fantasy day) for Robinson, though both backs were very productive in the passing game. Robinson remains the better fantasy option and is on the RB2 radar against the Giants' shaky defense, whereas Ekeler is just a deep-league PPR flex.
Over/Under: 43 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 60% (12th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Carolina Panthers
Projected Score: Chargers 24, Panthers 20
Lineup locks: None
There are no clear locks here, but J.K. Dobbins leads a list of flex options. Finally back to full health, the ex-Raven paced the L.A. backfield in snaps (32, or 59%) and passing game work (three targets on 12 routes) en route to a strong fantasy outing (139 yards and a touchdown on 13 touches). Gus Edwards, meanwhile, totaled 11 carries and one target (five routes) on 22 snaps (41%). Dobbins' ceiling will be limited a bit as long as Edwards is involved, but his role and his elite efficiency are enough to launch him into the RB2 mix against the struggling Panthers.
Over/Under: 43.6 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 64% (8th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Score: Browns 19, Jaguars 19
Lineup locks: Travis Etienne Jr., Amari Cooper, Evan Engram
Jerome Ford is a fringe lineup lock after operating as the Browns' clear feature back in Week 1. Ford played on 51 snaps (a career-high 73% share) and managed 12 carries and seven targets. Pierre Strong Jr. combined for two carries and three targets on 18 snaps, whereas D'Onta Foreman was limited to only one snap. Ford wasn't overly efficient in what was a tough matchup against Dallas, but volume is king and he still managed 69 yards and a score on 18 touches. Ford has a better matchup this week and is therefore on the RB2 radar.
Over/Under: 38 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Browns 52% (16th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens
Projected Score: Ravens 27, Raiders 17
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews
The tight ends are the big topic in this one after Isaiah Likely exploded for a 9-111-1 receiving line on 12 targets in Week 1, while Andrews was held to a 2-14-0 showing on just two targets. It's clear that Likely will remain a major part of the Baltimore passing game, but note that he played on fewer snaps (52) and ran fewer routes (21) than Andrews (53 and 26, respectively). Andrews is a prime Week 2 rebound candidate and remains a lineup lock, whereas Likely is a fringe TE1. Brock Bowers, meanwhile, played on 68% of the Raiders' offensive snaps in his NFL debut, and his team-high eight targets allowed for a solid 6-58-0 receiving line. As with Likely, the rookie is a fringe TE1.
Zamir White appeared to be headed for a breakout 2024 season, but that's in major jeopardy after he was limited to just 23 snaps (39%) in Week 1. White was the primary ball carrier (13 carries) but saw only two targets on nine routes. That compared unfavorably with Alexander Mattison, who totaled five carries and six targets (20 routes) on 35 snaps (59%). White still managed a healthy 15 touches, but it's clear that Mattison will handle a substantial role, especially in passing situations. With the Raiders as big underdogs in Baltimore this week, game script likely won't be in White's favor. He's best left on benches.
Over/Under: 43.2 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 83% (highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Projected Score: Rams 27, Cardinals 23
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Kyren Williams, James Conner, Cooper Kupp, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Puka Nacua (knee) will miss at least four games, which vaults Kupp back into the elite fantasy WR tier and adds Demarcus Robinson and perhaps Tyler Johnson to the fantasy radar. With Nacua limited to 24 snaps in the opener, Robinson soaked up seven targets on 68 snaps (92%) and Johnson handled seven targets on 49 snaps (66%). The Rams were the only team to have three receivers on the field for 100% of their passing plays in Week 1, which means both Robinson and Johnson figure to operate as every-down players for the next month. Both should be on rosters, and both are risky. However, both are also viable deep-league flex options against a shaky Arizona secondary.
Over/Under: 49.5 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Rams 64% (9th highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Projected Score: Steelers 21, Broncos 17
Lineup locks: George Pickens
Three running backs got to run for Denver in Week 1. Javonte Williams led the way, as expected, though he was limited to a mere eight carries and two targets (18 routes) on 36 snaps (52%). Jaleel McLaughlin soaked up 10 carries and five targets (12 routes) on 24 snaps (35%), and rookie Audric Estime (just placed on IR) handled a pair of carries on three snaps. None of the backs reached 30 total yards against Seattle's impressive interior line, so while Williams remains the top fantasy option from the group, he's not quite a good flex play against a good Steelers defense.
Over/Under: 38.5 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 65% (7th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Score: Chiefs 27, Bengals 22
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Ja'Marr Chase, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
Xavier Worthy impressed in his NFL debut, scoring a 21-yard rushing TD and adding a second score on one of his two receptions. That level of production makes the speedster well worth flex consideration, though it's worth noting he was limited to just three targets in the game. Worthy played on 62% of snaps (74% route participation), although that was with Hollywood Brown sidelined. Worthy will be a very boom/bust producer if his touches don't increase -- and that might not happen for a while if Brown returns for Week 2.
Over/Under: 49.5 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 68% (6th highest)
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans
Projected Score: Texans 24, Bears 21
Lineup locks: C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Tank Dell
Chicago's RB deployment was one of the bigger surprises of Week 1. D'Andre Swift was indeed the lead back, but he was limited to just 10 carries and one target (19 routes) on 36 snaps (68%). Travis Homer was next in line (two carries on 11 snaps); Khalil Herbert played a small role (two carries on six snaps); and Velus Jones Jr. was also mixed in (two carries and one target on four snaps). The four players combined for only 63 yards, and Swift was responsible for nearly half of that total (30). Houston held the Colts' Jonathan Taylor to 48 yards (3.0 YPC) in Week 1, so Swift is no more than a flex option.
Over/Under: 44.9 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 62% (10th highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Score: Eagles 26, Falcons 24
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Drake London, DeVonta Smith, Kyle Pitts
Robinson was promoted to feature back duties in Game 1 of his second NFL season, having played on 45 out of a possible 50 snaps, while handling 18 carries and five targets. That left very little for Tyler Allgeier, who was limited to three carries and zero targets on nine snaps. Allgeier's three touches marked a career low and is a big step down from the 12.0 touches per game he averaged in 2023. Needless to say, he currently has zero standalone value and is no more than an elite insurance option.
Over/Under: 50.1 (highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 56% (13th highest)