Throughout the NFL regular season, we'll meet here on Thursdays to break down the film from a fantasy football perspective. I'm looking for trends and tendencies on both sides of the ball to give fantasy managers a jump when they set their weekly lineups. Schemes matter. So does offensive deployment in weekly matchups. And remember, the game tape always tells us a story.
Heading into the fantasy playoffs, we'll start with a veteran running back who is once again playing in a feature role. There are a couple of receivers we need to upgrade this week as well. As usual, there are a few players I have questions on and I've also got three more to put on your dynasty radar.
All references to fantasy scoring are for PPR leagues unless otherwise noted.
Players to upgrade in Week 15
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, New England Patriots
With Rhamondre Stevenson still down with an ankle injury, let's move Elliott up for Sunday's matchup versus the Chiefs. In last week's win over the Steelers, Elliott logged season highs in touches (29) and fantasy points (27). Yes, the run game lacked efficiency, as Elliott averaged just 3.1 yards per carry, but we also need to focus on his usage in the pass game, as he caught seven of eight targets for 71 yards and a score. Quick releases to the flat, screens and checkdowns. Plus, that touchdown was on a schemed pick concept to get Elliott the ball in the red zone. With quarterback Bailey Zappe's willingness to throw the ball underneath, Elliott should continue to see targets, in addition to the rushing volume. He's a lower-tier RB1 in my ranks.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Baltimore Ravens
If you play in a deeper league, let's go with Beckham in your WR3 spot for the Sunday night game against the Jaguars. He posted a season-high 19.7 points in the Week 14 win over the Rams, catching four of 10 targets for 91 yards, with a touchdown grab on slick double-move to set up split-safety coverage. That was vintage OBJ there. The volume is up, too, as Beckham has seen 22 targets over his past three games. And with Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson playing like a ball distributor, I expect Beckham to produce as a three-level route runner versus a Jacksonville defense that ranks in the bottom 10 against wide receivers.
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
I've moved Rice up into the WR2 range in my ranks this week. The volume is there. So is the scoring production. And in critical-game moments on Sunday, I expect Patriots coach Bill Belichick to scheme for tight end Travis Kelce -- forcing Patrick Mahomes to go elsewhere with the ball. Rice, who has recorded three straight games with at least 14 fantasy points and seven receptions, has emerged as a prime option in the route tree for Mahomes. He's also seen 29 targets and scored two TDs during that three-week stretch.
Players I have questions about in Week 15
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
I had a tough time ranking Walker this week. I don't love the run-game matchup versus the Eagles defensive front on Monday night, and Walker did split touches with Zach Charbonnet last week against the 49ers in his first game back from an oblique injury. He scored 9.2 points (on 12 touches) in the loss, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. Even if Walker sees a bump in volume here, I still have to move him down into the flex range.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
If you start Pickens, especially in deeper leagues, it's because of the upside he brings to your lineup. And I get that. Pickens can stretch the field from boundary alignments and win isolation matchups on fade routes. However, Pickens has produced double-digit points in only one of his past seven games, and he hasn't scored a touchdown since way back in Week 8. I also have concerns about this Steelers pass game with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. He played frenetically in the Week 14 loss to the Patriots, and we are seeing the same issues with his lower-body mechanics. You can chase the big-play ability with Pickens here, but I'm going to look for stronger options in my lineup.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
No quarterback in the league has attempted more passes than Washington's Sam Howell (39.5 per game). But even with the Commanders' pass-heavy script, McLaurin isn't producing at a high rate. In the Week 13 loss to Miami, McLaurin failed to record a single reception (on three targets), and he hasn't scored more than 10 fantasy points since back in Week 9. Now, we know the talent isn't an issue, as McLaurin has the upper-level route traits to make himself available to the quarterback. However, with McLaurin holding a reception per target rate of only 60% this season, the anticipated fantasy numbers just haven't been there. He's a flex at best for me this week in the matchup versus the Rams.
Players to put on your radar in dynasty formats
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears
In the Bears' passing game, the ball is going to DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. We see it every week. And that has limited the numbers and opportunities for Mooney this season, as he has caught just 27 of 49 targets. However, he will be a free agent this offseason, and in the right situation, he can produce as a solid No. 3 due to his route-running and vertical stretch ability.
Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Mayer has posted only two games with 10 or more fantasy points this season, while catching 23 of 35 targets. However, Mayer has all the traits to be a productive three-down tight end who can develop into a true middle-of-the-field threat, with scoring upside in the red zone.
Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns
Tillman has seen an uptick in snaps and routes run over the past three weeks in Cleveland, totaling 10 catches on 15 targets for 98 yards. He has the physical tools and the competitive play style to catch the ball inside of the numbers. He's more than willing to work the dirty areas of the field, and he has the profile of a boundary target who can win one-on-one matchups.