Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
The Matchups Map provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, rating all 32 opposing defenses in terms of how favorable the matchup is for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced over the most recent five weeks. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adj. FPA, or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how many points the defense allows compared with players' weekly averages. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Washington Commanders). He has scored 22-plus fantasy points in each of his past three games -- the only times he has exceeded 17 in a game all season -- and the past two came against a pair of defenses with solid reputations in the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens. Stafford now draws the position's most favorable matchup, as, for the season, the Commanders have surrendered the most fantasy points per passing attempt (0.55) and the second-most Adjusted FPA (4.4). In merely the past four weeks, quarterbacks have averaged 24.5 points per game against this defense.
Others to like: Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (at Detroit Lions); Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers).
Matchup to avoid: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (vs. New York Jets). He faced these Jets just three weeks ago and scored a season-low 7.82 fantasy points, but that hardly scratches the surface of the difficulty of this matchup. In merely the past six weeks, Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud were also held to season-worst point totals (excluding Herbert's Week 14 early departure) by the Jets, a defense that has a season-best minus-5.1 Adjusted FPA against quarterbacks. Incidentally, if you're worried about Tagovailoa's receivers facing this matchup, keep in mind that Tyreek Hill (25.4 PPR fantasy points) and Jaylen Waddle (19.4) fared fine in Week 12. Tagovailoa completed only four of eight passes for 27 yards to his other receivers.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles (at Seattle Seahawks). Various bumps and bruises, generally bad matchups and a rising amount of negative game script has hampered him the past three weeks, as Swift totaled 17.3 PPR fantasy points on only 34 total touches. This week, however, he's in great shape for a rebound against one of the position's most favorable matchups, as the Seahawks have seen five running backs score more than 16 PPR fantasy points against them in the past five weeks. Running backs have also averaged the third-most points per rushing attempt against this defense for the season (0.72).
Others to like: Kyren Williams, Rams (vs. Commanders); Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Indianapolis Colts).
Matchup to avoid: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (vs. San Francisco 49ers). Only six running backs have scored double-digit PPR fantasy points against the 49ers this season (the fewest in the league), with Rachaad White, who scored 8.8 of his 17.8 points on receiving plays, the only one to do so over the past six weeks. When Conner faced the 49ers back in Week 4, he totaled 12 touches and 6.6 PPR fantasy points, his season-low (excluding his injury-shortened Week 5). Additionally, as the Cardinals are near-two-touchdown underdogs despite being the hosts for this game, game script seems likely to be a problem for Conner.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (vs. New York Giants). The Giants defense has utterly collapsed against wide receivers over the past five weeks. During that time, they've surrendered the most PPR fantasy points per game (49.4) and Adjusted FPA (12.7) to the position, including a disastrous Week 10 against the Dallas Cowboys during which both CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks exceeded 30 points. Olave wasn't much of a factor in the Saints' 28-6, Week 14 blowout of the Carolina Panthers, but this matchup is more competitive and certainly more likely to be pass-oriented than that one. Expect a return closer to (if not greater than) the 18.3 points he averaged from Weeks 9-13.
Others to like: Courtland Sutton, Broncos (at Lions); Zay Flowers, Ravens (at Jacksonville Jaguars).
Matchup to avoid: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (vs. Steelers). The Steelers haven't allowed a 20 PPR-point fantasy performance to a wide receiver since Puka Nacua's 23.4 in Week 7, and in merely the past five weeks they've held opposing WR1s to a second-fewest 1.28 points per target and third-fewest minus-5.5 Adjusted FPA. During that time, they held Christian Watson, Amari Cooper, Ja'Marr Chase and Marquise Brown to a combined 23.8 points on 24 targets. Pittman's streak of four games with 11-plus targets makes him a tough player to bench, but he'll have his work cut out for him against Joey Porter Jr. and the Steelers' cornerbacks.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Isaiah Likely, Ravens (at Jaguars). In two games as the team's starter following Mark Andrews' ankle surgery, Likely has played 76% of the Ravens' offensive snaps, run 66 routes, seen 14 targets and scored 27.3 PPR fantasy points, playing a role that's plenty fantasy-worthy. Expect it to continue against the Jaguars, a defense that just surrendered 27.1 points to David Njoku in Week 14 and that has afforded the position a league-high 2.49 points per target over the past five weeks.
Matchup to avoid: David Njoku, Browns (vs. Chicago Bears). Speaking of Njoku, his usage has ramped up significantly, as he has averaged 8.8 targets and 13.5 PPR fantasy points over the past eight weeks, not to mention seen a league-high 13 red-zone targets and a tied-for-most seven end-zone targets during that time. It makes him tough to bench in most leagues, though this is much tougher matchup on paper than you might think. The Bears have allowed only 172.3 passing yards per game over the past five weeks and limited Sam LaPorta (the No. 3 scoring tight end on the season) to a combined 11.5 points in their Week 11 and 14 meetings.