<
>

Fantasy football Shadow Report: High ceiling for Thielen

Keep reading to see why Adam Thielen should have another productive game. Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can help you make the best lineup decisions. By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

Below are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.

To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB Cheatsheet.

Note that, unless noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjusts to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion because of bye weeks.

Projected shadow matchups

Bengals' Ja'Marr Chase vs. Steelers' Joey Porter Jr. (shadow)

Porter has locked down the No. 1 corner job in Pittsburgh, having shadowed DeAndre Hopkins in Week 9 and Amari Cooper in Week 11. Porter covered Hopkins and Cooper on a combined 50 of their 77 routes in the two games, including 53 of 58 perimeter routes and seven of 19 in the slot.

Hopkins was held to a 4-60-0 receiving line on 11 targets in the game (1-17-0 on five targets when covered by Porter), whereas Cooper posted a 4-34-0 line on nine targets (4-34-0 on seven targets against Porter).

Takeaway: Chase is already without Joe Burrow this week and will have his hands full with Porter on 80% or so of his routes. He should be downgraded, whereas Tee Higgins can be upgraded if he returns from injury.

Browns' Amari Cooper vs. Broncos' Pat Surtain II (shadow)

Surtain has been busy as a shadow corner, having traveled with Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore, Garrett Wilson and Jordan Addison on their perimeter routes. He also did some shadowing against Skyy Moore and Travis Kelce in two recent games against the Chiefs, and leaned toward Stefon Diggs occasionally in Week 10.

Surtain is one of the best in the business and the Denver pass defense has been better after a disastrous start, having allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to WRs over the past four weeks (10th fewest on the season). Expect Surtain to cover Cooper the 75% of the time he's on the perimeter this week.

Takeaway: Cooper will escape to the slot and away from Surtain occasionally, but he'll be in a tough spot on a majority of his routes. He should be downgraded.

Raiders' Davante Adams vs. Chiefs' L'Jarius Sneed (shadow)

Sneed has shadowed in nine consecutive games tracing back to Week 2. That includes showdowns with Calvin Ridley, Moore, Wilson, Justin Jefferson, Jerry Jeudy, Joshua Palmer, Courtland Sutton, Hill and, most recently, A.J. Brown. Sneed shadowed those nine on a combined 147 (or 88%) of their 167 perimeter routes and has plenty of success. That includes holding Brown to a 1-8-0 receiving line on four targets on Monday night.

The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to WRs, including the seventh fewest to the perimeter, which is where Adams aligns 81% of the time.

Takeaway: Especially after how well Sneed performed against Brown on Monday, Adams should be downgraded. Jakobi Meyers gets a boost in value on the other side of the field against Jaylen Watson.

Tough matchups

Dolphins' Jaylen Waddle, Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Tyreek Hill vs. Jets' D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II and Sauce Gardner

New week, same drill. The Jets have allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs, including the fewest to the perimeter, this season, over the past eight weeks and over the past four weeks. They've also allowed the ninth-fewest points to the slot this season.

Only one defense has held an opposing QB, RB, WR or TE unit below its season average otherwise in 100% of games and that defense is the Jets against wide receivers. Only six receivers have cleared 11.0 fantasy points against the Jets, though five were star receivers, which is notable with Waddle and especially Hill on the slate this week.

Of course, Dolphins' receivers totaled 170 yards and zero TDs in two games against the Jets last season. Miami's passing game should be downgraded.

Falcons' Drake London and Van Jefferson vs. Saints' Alontae Taylor, Paulson Adebo and Isaac Yiadom

The Saints have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points over expected to wide receivers this season. They've faced the 13th-most WR targets, but are allowing 6.9 yards per target (fourth lowest) and a 58% catch rate (sixth lowest) to the position. The most points scored by a WR in a game was Adam Thielen's 20.4 in Week 2. Their key has been domination of the perimeter, having allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the boundary, but the seventh most to the slot.

Marshon Lattimore is expected to miss time, so this matchup isn't as tough as usual, but Adebo's emergence on the perimeter means this won't be a walk in the park for Atlanta. London (73% perimeter) is going to see quite a bit of Adebo and should be downgraded slightly.

Broncos' Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr. vs. Browns' Martin Emerson Jr., Greg Newsome II and Denzel Ward

The Browns have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, as well as the third fewest to perimeter and second fewest to the slot. They've allowed the fewest yardage to the position, as well as a league-low 52% catch rate. Only four receivers have reached 13.0 fantasy points against them in 10 games.

Sutton (74% perimeter) and Mims (77%) will work the outside against standouts Ward and Emerson, with Jeudy (63% slot) primarily inside against Newsome. All Denver receivers should be downgraded.

Chargers' Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen and Jalen Guyton vs. Ravens' Brandon Stephens, Arthur Maulet and Marlon Humphrey

Baltimore has allowed the fewest fantasy points over expected to wide receivers this season, over the past eight weeks and over the past four weeks. Despite having faced the third-most WR targets, the Ravens have allowed the seventh-fewest points to the position (second fewest over the past eight weeks). Wideouts are averaging 5.8 yards per target and 10.3 yards per reception against them, both of which are lowest in the league.

Only three receivers have reached 17 fantasy points against the Ravens (Tee Higgins, George Pickens and Amon-Ra St. Brown) and the likes of Ja'Marr Chase (twice), Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper were held to single-digits. Allen is fairly matchup proof and has the best matchup of the group against Maulet, so he should only be downgraded slightly. Johnston and Guyton should be avoided.

Titans' DeAndre Hopkins, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Treylon Burks vs. Panthers' Donte Jackson, Troy Hill and CJ Henderson

Offenses like to run against Carolina, which somewhat explains why a whopping 90% of wide receiver units facing the Panthers have fallen short of their season average otherwise (only the Jets are better in that category at 100%). Carolina has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wideouts, including the fewest to the slot. Expect less volume than usual for Tennessee's wide receivers, who should be downgraded.

Commanders' Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel and Terry McLaurin vs. Cowboys' DaRon Bland, Jourdan Lewis and Stephon Gilmore

No defense has been in man coverage more than Dallas (67%). Bland has been excellent since moving outside opposite Gilmore, with Lewis holding down the fort in the slot.

Dallas has, in turn, allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to WRs, including the fourth fewest to the perimeter and third fewest to the slot. McLaurin (84% perimeter) and Dotson (58%) will work primarily against Gilmore and Bland and can be downgraded a bit.

Samuel, who was ejected last week, has the "easiest" matchup, but expectations should be lowered slightly.

Advantageous matchups

Cowboys' Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks vs. Commanders' Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St-Juste and Emmanuel Forbes

Washington has allowed the third-most fantasy points to WRs, including the most over expected. The Commanders have surrendered the most points to the perimeter and are midpack against the slot.

Fuller continues to play well, but he hasn't had much help from St-Juste and struggling rookie Forbes (who was benched at one point). Lamb (61% slot) will draw a lot of St-Juste in this one and should be upgraded, whereas Cooks (63% perimeter) is a more appealing flex than usual this week.

Gallup is sharing No. 3 duties with Jalen Tolbert, so he shouldn't be near lineups.

Colts' Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Buccaneers' Jamel Dean, Christian Izien and Carlton Davis III

Injuries and performance have been a problem for the Tampa Bay secondary. Davis has missed three full games and Dean has missed one full game and a big chunk of two others. Both corners actually left Week 11 early, which raises concerns for their Week 12 availability.

The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs this season, including the 11th most to the perimeter and second most to the slot. Davis is allowing 0.59 fantasy points per coverage snap, which is second worst among 204 qualified defenders, and Dean hasn't been substantially better.

Pittman Jr. (71% perimeter) and Pierce (88%) can be upgraded and will get an additional boost if Davis and/or Dean are sidelined. Downs is in a good spot in the slot against fellow rookie Izien.

Bills' Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir and Stefon Diggs vs. Eagles' James Bradberry, Bradley Roby and Darius Slay

The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to WRs this season, over the past eight weeks and over the past four weeks. That includes the fourth most to the perimeter and most to the slot. Philadelphia ranks among the 11 worst defenses in points allowed to the left perimeter, right perimeter and slot.

The Eagles' efficiency against receivers has been fine (7.2 yards per target is ninth lowest), but they've faced massive volume (league-high 26.9 WR targets faced per game). Fifteen WRs have reached 16 fantasy points against them in 10 games.

Diggs (62% perimeter) and Davis (82%) can be upgraded against Slay and Bradberry, whereas Shakir has added value as a deep league flex in the slot.

Panthers' DJ Chark Jr., Adam Thielen and Jonathan Mingo vs. Titans' Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary and Sean Murphy-Bunting

The Titans have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs, including the sixth most to the perimeter (fourth most over the past four weeks). Injuries have been an issue, as all three starting corners have missed time, and Murphy-Bunting is dicey for this game after missing two straight.

Mingo (70% perimeter) and Chark (78%) will work primarily against Fulton (who was benched last week) and Murphy-Bunting (McCreary if he's out) on the boundary, leaving Thielen (73% slot) to face off with McCreary (or, if Murphy-Bunting is out, Eric Garror) inside. Upgrade Carolina's receivers.