Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
The Matchups Map provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, rating all 32 opposing defenses in terms of how favorable the matchup is for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced over the most recent five weeks. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adj. FPA, or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how many points the defense allows compared with players' weekly averages. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (at Detroit Lions). The Lions have been up and down defensively against quarterbacks, but recently they have struggled against the position. In merely the past five weeks, they've surrendered the most fantasy points per passing attempt (0.58), third most total fantasy points per game (21.8) and fourth-most Adjusted FPA (5.2) to quarterbacks. Love scored 17.64 points in these teams' Week 4 meeting, and that was in spite of him committing two interceptions. He's likely to be a focal point for the Packers in a Thanksgiving game that has one of the week's higher over/unders. Sunday pick: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Washington Commanders).
Another to like: Derek Carr/Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints (at Atlanta Falcons).
Matchup to avoid: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (at New York Jets). Get ready to find out what happens when the league's highest-scoring offense faces one of its stingiest defenses (eighth-ranked 19.5 allowed, strictly by the defense). Tagovailoa can point to Josh Allen's 22.50-point fantasy performance in Week 11 as reason to expect solid stats from him, but outside of that, no quarterback has reached the 20-point plateau against the Jets. In fact, this defense held Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes and Allen (in their Week 1 meeting) beneath 14 points.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Indianapolis Colts). The Colts have struggled mightily against the run over the past four weeks, coinciding with the start of defensive tackle Grover Stewart's six-game suspension for violating the league's PED policy. Six of the 10 running backs to score double-digit PPR fantasy points against the Colts this season have done so since Week 7, with Alvin Kamara the only one who places among the position's top 20 in points for the season. White brings the added advantage of his excellence in the receiving game, alleviating any worries about negative game script.
Others to like: De'Von Achane/Salvon Ahmed, Dolphins (at Jets); Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens (at Los Angeles Chargers).
Matchup to avoid: James Cook, Buffalo Bills (at Philadelphia Eagles). That he rarely gets opportunities to score -- he has one rushing attempt at the goal line and six in goal-to-go situations, out of the team's nine and 21 -- leaves him plenty susceptible to his matchups. This is a poor one, against an Eagles defense that has only once all season afforded a running back more than 15 PPR fantasy points and only once surrendered more than 60 rushing yards. The Eagles have allowed running backs the fourth-fewest points per carry (0.43), rendering Cook a mere flex play.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (vs. Buccaneers). The Buccaneers' cornerbacks have been bruised and battered all year, from the injury room to the stat sheet. Both Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean left Week 11 early with ailments, with Davis having already missed three games this season. Meanwhile, a league-leading six different wide receivers scored 15-plus PPR fantasy points against the Buccaneers' defense in just the past four weeks, including a pair of 27-plus-pointers by the Houston Texans' Noah Brown and Tank Dell in Week 9. Pittman, whose 30% target share is eighth-best in the league, should feast on this matchup.
Others to like: Brandin Cooks, Cowboys (vs. Commanders); Demario Douglas, New England Patriots (at New York Giants).
Matchup to avoid: Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns (at Denver Broncos). The Browns' more conservative game plan -- Cooper saw only one pass that traveled as far as 10 yards downfield in Week 11, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson totaled three such attempts all game -- is a real concern for Cooper's fantasy production moving forward. Throw in this matchup against red-hot Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II and Cooper is an unappealing play in standard leagues. Surtain has afforded just 14.0 PPR fantasy points to wide receivers as the nearest defender in the Broncos' past three games, during which time no individual scored in double-digits against them.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Isaiah Likely, Ravens (at Chargers). Mark Andrews' probable season-ending ankle injury creates a golden opportunity for the capable Likely, who has made three fill-in starts during past Andrews absences, averaging 9.7 PPR fantasy points (and, yes, that includes his 1.4 point Week 1). A Chargers matchup is about as favorable as a tight end could ask in his return to a prominent role. In just the past four weeks, four different tight ends have scored double-digit PPR fantasy points against the Chargers, including Cole Kmet (17.9 points, Week 8), Tyler Conklin (12.6, Week 9) and Brock Wright (10.3, Week 10).
Matchup to avoid: Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Kansas City Chiefs). Mayer's emergence in the Raiders' offense is an encouraging development for dynasty leaguers, but to put it into context, his 13% target share over the past five weeks is still only 19th-best at the position. That's not enough to get it done except against the most favorable defenses, of which the Chiefs is not one. The Chiefs have been one of the toughest against tight ends all year, joining the Tennessee Titans as the only ones who haven't allowed a 12-point PPR performance.