Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
The Matchups Map provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, rating all 32 opposing defenses in terms of how favorable the matchup is for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adj. FPA, or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how many points the defense allows compared to players' weekly averages. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable, a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring, unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (versus Philadelphia Eagles). Eagles-Rams has the second-highest over/under, and it's easy to see why, with both offenses placing top-eight in points per game and Offensive EPA (Expected Points Added), but both defenses also registering below-average metrics. The Eagles' defense has made Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins and Sam Howell look like passing stars, and Stafford has better Total QBR for the season than all of them. Note Stafford's wide range of outcomes,with his statistical floor lower as he nurses a hip contusion, and ceiling higher with Cooper Kupp (hamstring, IR) potentially back to deepen his cast of targets.
Others to like: Howell, Washington Commanders (versus Chicago Bears); Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals (versus Cincinnati Bengals).
Matchup to avoid: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Buffalo Bills). Tre'Davious White's season-ending torn Achilles is a significant, but not game-changing, loss for the Bills. Theirs is the top defense against quarterbacks in fantasy points allowed per game (7.6) and Adjusted FPA (minus-7.3), and it kept Tua Tagovailoa and the potent Miami Dolphins offense largely in check. Additionally, the Bills afforded quarterbacks 13.2 fantasy points per game, fifth-fewest in the league, in the 10 games White missed in 2022. Lawrence's unusually conservative approach -- his 6.2 yard average depth of target is easily a career low -- won't cut it against this defense.
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Running backs
Matchups highlight: Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders (versus Bears). The Bears' defense has been all-around awful, their Defensive EPA second-worst behind only the even-more-atrocious Denver Broncos, but especially against running backs, as the only team to allow five different to score 15-plus PPR fantasy points. The Bears struggle mightily against the run in the red zone, posting the league's worst Defensive EPA, and that's where Robinson shines. He has a 62% red zone snap share and 12 of the team's 16 running back carries (including 5 of 7 in goal-to-go situations), not to mention the probability of positive game script for most of the day.
Sunday pick: Breece Hall, New York Jets (at Broncos). Similarly, the Broncos have been getting pummeled by running backs, with four different scoring 22-plus in the past three weeks alone. Zach Wilson's Week 4 rebound gives some hope the Jets can hang in this game long enough to give Hall chances to show his blazing speed.
Matchup to avoid: Miles Sanders, Panthers (at Lions). Would you believe that the Lions, the league's worst defense against the run as recently as the 2020 season, are shaping up as one of the game's best through four weeks? It's true, as the defense leads in Adjusted FPA and yards per carry (3.0) and places fifth in Successful Play Rate. Aside from Kenneth Walker's pair of goal-line scores in Week 2, the Lions' defense has been practically spotless. Sanders' rushing output the past two weeks has left plenty to be desired, as only two of his 22 attempts went for even as much as five yards.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens (at Pittsburgh Steelers). Mark Andrews might be the Ravens' true "WR1," but Flowers' usage makes him equally compelling considering this matchup. Flowers has 87% snap and 28% target shares while averaging 27 routes, while the four WR1s the Steelers have faced, each of whom had similar usage rates in their games, averaged 31.7 PPR fantasy points. Poor play by cornerbacks Patrick Peterson and Levi Wallace, who combined have surrendered 131.5 PPR fantasy points on 57 targets as the closest defender (per Next Gen Stats) and are also likely to cover Flowers, has had much to do with it.
Others to like: Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (versus Tennessee Titans); Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs (at Minnesota Vikings).
Matchup to avoid: Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, Broncos (versus Jets). Comparatively, Jets cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed have afforded 66.8 PPR fantasy points on 41 targets through four weeks on a near-identical number of coverage snaps to the Steelers' duo, rating two of the toughest individual matchups in the league. Sure, Stefon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb each had a 25-plus-PPR-point performance against the Jets, but both (as well as their quarterbacks) are superior performers to these Broncos. Bear in mind that Sutton has averaged 13.9 and Jeudy 8.9 while facing considerably stronger matchups to this one so far.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Zach Ertz, Cardinals (versus Bengals). Through four weeks, he leads his position in target share (23%) and ranks second with 30 total targets, usage that's particularly appealing to PPR managers. Now Ertz faces the Bengals, the only defense to allow at least 8.5 PPR fantasy points to an opposing tight end in each of the first four weeks. The Bengals' 2.44 points-per-target average afforded to the position is also the league's most.
Matchup to avoid: Cole Kmet, Bears (at Commanders). Coming off a 27.6 PPR fantasy point, two-receiving-touchdown Week 4, and in a week with four teams on bye, Kmet might be a popular insertion into many fantasy lineups. Unfortunately, the opposing Commanders present a far stiffer test than last week's Broncos did, having afforded the position the fewest points per game (21.3) and third-fewest points per target (1.07). Typically heavily targeted tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert combined for 12.6 points on 13 targets against this defense.